My view is stagflation light. Current interest rates are a return to normal and high government debt guarantees a slow growth economy. So, I am not sure where the sudden jump in unemployment is going to originate. Personally, I am glad to see wage inflation. The US worker has been screwed by outsourcing since the 70s. I find it funny when companies complain about loyalty. They rarely show their workers what they expect. How come an executive's job paying 40M a year can never be outsourced to India for 200K. Like the country, corporate America is a joke. We do not have serious leaders, and we do not address serious issues.
The party is over. Warren Buffet is even stating it publicly. Look at the cash horde he has and doesn't know what to do with it. Down deep he knows he should be buying gold, but that would require him to admit he was wrong with his pithy, smart-ass statements about gold.
No matter who is elected, no matter what the employment numbers say, no matter what the Fed does, and no matter what the zombie markets do,......the party is over.
This party was built on two dominant criteria: cheap energy, and unlimited government debt. Both of those have come to an end. You can hope and deny all you want, but energy has hit a wall. Do some research. It is not about choices or decisions being made by the global climate freaks. Global Climate Crisis Theory is a ploy being used to convince dumbed-down idiots that the way to save the planet is to use less energy. Saving the planet is not the goal. The use of less energy is. I am not going into a bunch of numbers here, but just realize that the US is 5% of the world's population and uses 20% of the daily world energy production..... every day. (World produces roughly 100 mbpd; we use 20 mbpd.) Of that 5% of the world's population, 21% are boomers and produce very little, and 21% are 18 and under and produce nothing. So of that 5%, 42% are a non-producing portion of society.......yet we use more oil than the 3 billion people in China and India combined. Not only is cheap energy over, but the amount of energy we get is about to be curtailed dramatically. You can't grow an economy on less energy......it is not possible.
Secondly, the world is not buying our debt any longer. The increase in rates was another hail Mary to try and induce purchases of our debt. In the 80s we ran a $1.5 trillion deficit for the decade, in the 90s we were at $1.3 trillion for the decade, in the 2000s our deficit went to $3.4 trillion, in the 2010s it jumped to a whopping $8.2 trillion (more than the entire history of the US combined), and in just 3 1/2 years of the 2020s, we are at $8.4 trillion dollars in deficits. The world is sick of buying our debt, and we have shown the world that if you piss us off, we will come take our reserves back and leave you with nothing.
I will leave you with this chart that clearly demonstrates the lights are about to be turned out. A party of this size ending takes some time for everyone to realize, but when the lights go out, everybody gets the picture. Not saying the lights are literally going out.......though possible.......but a unmistakable signal is coming.
Neely also pointed out yesterday that a different way to look at the employment picture is payroll taxes withheld. In her words “It’s not looking good”.
Are we are heading towards stagflation? absolutely!
And there is nothing that won’t convince me that this is a coordinated demolition of the economy.
We literally have the feds and the FDIC doing a hit job on regional banks, where JP Morgan collects the assets for pennies on the dollar, while leaving the liability for the taxpayers.
All of this just in time for them to role out a solution to a problem that they created: FedNow cbcd😒
A good summary. There is a variable involved that messes up state comparisons of unemployment - 1.) in some states if you lose your job, you have to leave the state to get another one. This makes the reported unemployment rate in any individual state an incomplete predictor of actual economic conditions there. A classic case is Alaska, which often has low unemployment, but also limited to none at all opportunities to get employed if you lose your job. And away you go unless you've got only a couple of drug-addled brain cells to rub together. 2.) More generous state unemployment financial assistance can delay people moving to seek work. You'll notice the Raven's list of high unemployment states are mostly 'blue' ones, possibly because political policies make it more difficult to create jobs - but maybe also because the state's more generous financial support delays a move to find work. 3.) This article brought to my mind - again - that many supplied numbers are so incomplete and 'gamed' that they are useless for the act of actually pulling the trigger on a buy or sell order. As one wag said, "Something doesn't have to be 'normalized' unless it's abnormal to begin with." A second is the frustrated cry: "Don't tell me What! Tell me When!"
My view is stagflation light. Current interest rates are a return to normal and high government debt guarantees a slow growth economy. So, I am not sure where the sudden jump in unemployment is going to originate. Personally, I am glad to see wage inflation. The US worker has been screwed by outsourcing since the 70s. I find it funny when companies complain about loyalty. They rarely show their workers what they expect. How come an executive's job paying 40M a year can never be outsourced to India for 200K. Like the country, corporate America is a joke. We do not have serious leaders, and we do not address serious issues.
The party is over. Warren Buffet is even stating it publicly. Look at the cash horde he has and doesn't know what to do with it. Down deep he knows he should be buying gold, but that would require him to admit he was wrong with his pithy, smart-ass statements about gold.
No matter who is elected, no matter what the employment numbers say, no matter what the Fed does, and no matter what the zombie markets do,......the party is over.
This party was built on two dominant criteria: cheap energy, and unlimited government debt. Both of those have come to an end. You can hope and deny all you want, but energy has hit a wall. Do some research. It is not about choices or decisions being made by the global climate freaks. Global Climate Crisis Theory is a ploy being used to convince dumbed-down idiots that the way to save the planet is to use less energy. Saving the planet is not the goal. The use of less energy is. I am not going into a bunch of numbers here, but just realize that the US is 5% of the world's population and uses 20% of the daily world energy production..... every day. (World produces roughly 100 mbpd; we use 20 mbpd.) Of that 5% of the world's population, 21% are boomers and produce very little, and 21% are 18 and under and produce nothing. So of that 5%, 42% are a non-producing portion of society.......yet we use more oil than the 3 billion people in China and India combined. Not only is cheap energy over, but the amount of energy we get is about to be curtailed dramatically. You can't grow an economy on less energy......it is not possible.
Secondly, the world is not buying our debt any longer. The increase in rates was another hail Mary to try and induce purchases of our debt. In the 80s we ran a $1.5 trillion deficit for the decade, in the 90s we were at $1.3 trillion for the decade, in the 2000s our deficit went to $3.4 trillion, in the 2010s it jumped to a whopping $8.2 trillion (more than the entire history of the US combined), and in just 3 1/2 years of the 2020s, we are at $8.4 trillion dollars in deficits. The world is sick of buying our debt, and we have shown the world that if you piss us off, we will come take our reserves back and leave you with nothing.
I will leave you with this chart that clearly demonstrates the lights are about to be turned out. A party of this size ending takes some time for everyone to realize, but when the lights go out, everybody gets the picture. Not saying the lights are literally going out.......though possible.......but a unmistakable signal is coming.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2023-05-07_16-32-38.jpg?itok=wB_MvFX9
Neely also pointed out yesterday that a different way to look at the employment picture is payroll taxes withheld. In her words “It’s not looking good”.
Are we are heading towards stagflation? absolutely!
And there is nothing that won’t convince me that this is a coordinated demolition of the economy.
We literally have the feds and the FDIC doing a hit job on regional banks, where JP Morgan collects the assets for pennies on the dollar, while leaving the liability for the taxpayers.
All of this just in time for them to role out a solution to a problem that they created: FedNow cbcd😒
Keep stacking
Jamie Dimon: "I don't set my salary, the board of directors does."
Stolen elections have consequences. Our republic died on Nov 3, 2020, when the deep state and DNC stole the election from Trump.
Gold and silver will benefit from this.
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A good summary. There is a variable involved that messes up state comparisons of unemployment - 1.) in some states if you lose your job, you have to leave the state to get another one. This makes the reported unemployment rate in any individual state an incomplete predictor of actual economic conditions there. A classic case is Alaska, which often has low unemployment, but also limited to none at all opportunities to get employed if you lose your job. And away you go unless you've got only a couple of drug-addled brain cells to rub together. 2.) More generous state unemployment financial assistance can delay people moving to seek work. You'll notice the Raven's list of high unemployment states are mostly 'blue' ones, possibly because political policies make it more difficult to create jobs - but maybe also because the state's more generous financial support delays a move to find work. 3.) This article brought to my mind - again - that many supplied numbers are so incomplete and 'gamed' that they are useless for the act of actually pulling the trigger on a buy or sell order. As one wag said, "Something doesn't have to be 'normalized' unless it's abnormal to begin with." A second is the frustrated cry: "Don't tell me What! Tell me When!"