My view is stagflation light. Current interest rates are a return to normal and high government debt guarantees a slow growth economy. So, I am not sure where the sudden jump in unemployment is going to originate. Personally, I am glad to see wage inflation. The US worker has been screwed by outsourcing since the 70s. I find it funny when companies complain about loyalty. They rarely show their workers what they expect. How come an executive's job paying 40M a year can never be outsourced to India for 200K. Like the country, corporate America is a joke. We do not have serious leaders, and we do not address serious issues.
Define "normal," and please explain how raising rates on the largest mountain of debt the world has ever seen is going to return anything to your definition of normal.
We are easily paying more in interest right now than we spend on our defense budget. Our defense budget is bigger than the next 11 countries......combined.
If the world stops allowing us to offshore our debt, then we have to buy it in-house. When all those trillions held in foreign accounts come back to the US looking for a place to land, things are going to get pricey.
Think about that. Some foreign country buys our debt, then we take the money and go buy up whatever we want like some rich teenager, and if they piss us off, we come take our reserves and leave them with nothing. There was a time that was a good arrangement for them.......now it is only a good arrangement for us. If I were the head of another country looking to do business, I would look for another deal.
The party is over. Warren Buffet is even stating it publicly. Look at the cash horde he has and doesn't know what to do with it. Down deep he knows he should be buying gold, but that would require him to admit he was wrong with his pithy, smart-ass statements about gold.
No matter who is elected, no matter what the employment numbers say, no matter what the Fed does, and no matter what the zombie markets do,......the party is over.
This party was built on two dominant criteria: cheap energy, and unlimited government debt. Both of those have come to an end. You can hope and deny all you want, but energy has hit a wall. Do some research. It is not about choices or decisions being made by the global climate freaks. Global Climate Crisis Theory is a ploy being used to convince dumbed-down idiots that the way to save the planet is to use less energy. Saving the planet is not the goal. The use of less energy is. I am not going into a bunch of numbers here, but just realize that the US is 5% of the world's population and uses 20% of the daily world energy production..... every day. (World produces roughly 100 mbpd; we use 20 mbpd.) Of that 5% of the world's population, 21% are boomers and produce very little, and 21% are 18 and under and produce nothing. So of that 5%, 42% are a non-producing portion of society.......yet we use more oil than the 3 billion people in China and India combined. Not only is cheap energy over, but the amount of energy we get is about to be curtailed dramatically. You can't grow an economy on less energy......it is not possible.
Secondly, the world is not buying our debt any longer. The increase in rates was another hail Mary to try and induce purchases of our debt. In the 80s we ran a $1.5 trillion deficit for the decade, in the 90s we were at $1.3 trillion for the decade, in the 2000s our deficit went to $3.4 trillion, in the 2010s it jumped to a whopping $8.2 trillion (more than the entire history of the US combined), and in just 3 1/2 years of the 2020s, we are at $8.4 trillion dollars in deficits. The world is sick of buying our debt, and we have shown the world that if you piss us off, we will come take our reserves back and leave you with nothing.
I will leave you with this chart that clearly demonstrates the lights are about to be turned out. A party of this size ending takes some time for everyone to realize, but when the lights go out, everybody gets the picture. Not saying the lights are literally going out.......though possible.......but a unmistakable signal is coming.
The only thing missing from the chart is an arrow pointing to 2017 that says, “Trump inaugurated” and one pointing to 2021 that says, “Biden inaugurated.”
Not sure what you are inferring, and I am not looking to pick a fight, but I would like to clarify.
To me there is only one party. In Trump's 4 years he ran up over $6 trillion dollars in national debt. It took Obama 8 years to run up $8 trillion, so Trump was well on his way to surpassing those that were before him; and Biden seamlessly picked up where those before him left off.
No one is willing to go against the banksters and corptacracy. The bankster and corporate elite are preying on the populace and destroying the sovereignty of our country. They are globalist.......they are NOT Americans. The politicians.....including Trump.....serve the billionaire elites that feed on the masses. We are like millions of serfs in a technocratic serfdom. We have no recourse, no representation, no escape.
Trump accomplished nothing in regards to what is going on in this country, other than to keep the DC swamp alive and kicking, keep the debt flowing, and keep the country divided and focused on him, rather than the real enemy. He is just another wrestler in the shit show, performing his act on the stage for the distraction and entertainment of the sheeple. The wrestlers don't run the show, they play their part. The wrestlers don't make policy, they follow it.
I cannot stand Chump, because I view him as the charlatan liar that he is. He had no legacy of conservatism or dialing back the "deep state." The day he left office, there was nothing to stand in the way of the evil bastards that have been running things all along.
If you believe he was legit, then you have to admit he was powerless. If he was powerless then, he damn sure is now.
If you believe "they" stole the election from him, what makes you imagine he will win this time?.........and if he does, will that not mean that they let him win, and therefore, wanted him to win........making him their choice, and not yours. Think about it.
The only thing I'm implying (not inferring) is that, according to the chart you provided, foreign purchases of US Treasuries increased slightly during Trump's 4-year reign, 2017 to 2021, then immediately began crashing upon Biden's inauguration. This highlights foreign governments' PERCEIVED trust in the US economy under the two presidents, not the presidents' ACTUAL competency or lack thereof. Foreign governments believed Trump to be competent and Biden to be incompetent in handling the US economy.
Your perseverant rant that "Trump accomplished nothing...", is "a charlatan and a liar," "had no legacy of conservatism", etc. will get no argument from me. I did not vote for Trump before and will not in 2024. But I have not seen anything in your comments that points to a better candidate. Your assertion that "there is only one party" is, with few exceptions (and Trump's not one of them), correct. So the solution to America's impending demise is to be found outside of the political system, if it is to be found at all. Perhaps you are right that, "We are like millions of serfs in a technocratic serfdom. We have no recourse, no representation, no escape." If that's true, then what's the point of writing about it? How is that different than Leftist snowflakes screaming at the sky?
No, I don't have a solution, either. At this point, I have resigned myself to Trump winning the Republican primary, which will cause the Democrat* to win the general election. After 4 years of Biden + 4 years of his flaming Left replacement*, there will not be enough of America left to salvage. In 2024 we will "vote ourselves into Socialism," and it won't really matter who is elected in 2028, if elections are held at all.
*Not Biden or Harris; probably someone much worse, like Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsom.
Nothing is ever accomplished until it first becomes a thought. That is why I believe it is important to discuss the truth and reality of our current world in an open manner so that people can develop their own thoughts.
There is a solution. The same solution that has occurred throughout human history. The same solution that gave us this country in the first place. There's a rule in life; "What you get it with is what you keep it with." Jefferson understood this as did many of the founders.
Regarding Trump's bid for the presidency. Ask any Trump supporter and they will swear up and down the election was stolen from him last time. If so, then here are the logical conclusions. If they could steal an election from a sitting President, then how could a presidential candidate ever hope to stop it from happening? If they kept him from being re-elected, then why can't they do it again? If they stole it last time, but he wins this time, will it be because they let him? And if they let him, does that mean he is their choice?
In regards to foreign purchases of US Treasuries, the current auctions are going pretty well. There are two sides of "foreigners" out there right now. There is the team that supports us...ECB, BOJ, BOE, BOC,.....and then there is the team that is leaving us. That would be led by China, Russia, and now to include Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, South Africa, and it looks like Pakistan is on the bubble. When the Fed, ECB, BOE, BOJ, BOA, and BOC are buying the debt of each others governments, then they are just trading money with themselves.
Who in their right mind would buy the debt of these bankrupt countries? Well the countries themselves and their sister countries that know if one goes down, they will all suffer with it.
I am not sure there is enough of "real" America left now to salvage. I have little to know hope of any transfer of power or take over that won't be even worse than what we have now. There is no leadership. That has been purposely removed so that we remain divided and fragmented. We have no recourse. We are in a lawless state, waiting for the next shoe to drop. Here's wishing you all the best.
Neely also pointed out yesterday that a different way to look at the employment picture is payroll taxes withheld. In her words “It’s not looking good”.
Are we are heading towards stagflation? absolutely!
And there is nothing that won’t convince me that this is a coordinated demolition of the economy.
We literally have the feds and the FDIC doing a hit job on regional banks, where JP Morgan collects the assets for pennies on the dollar, while leaving the liability for the taxpayers.
All of this just in time for them to role out a solution to a problem that they created: FedNow cbcd😒
Might I add: done so that the elite control our freedom with the result, as Victor Davis Hanson thinks, a two-tier system of a few elites and the rest are serfs. Of course every attempt in the past has failed, but the economic damage and loss in human life and happiness are much greater this time. The Plandemic was rehearsed as a military operation, not as a public health measure (Robert Malone MD). It is just that the CCP virus came before they were fully prepared and the toxic jab was knowingly pushed ignoring almost or probably all safety and efficacy testing previously required (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.). Since so much debt has been created without capital, the unwinding maybe as I have read, prices to rise by 3x (300%) inflation. The cbdcs can make it physically possible to accomplish this taxation/devaluation.
You really think that is the first time that has happened?.......and furthermore, you really think something would be different today if Chump had of won?
You do realize Biden is still spending some of the debt that Chump ran up, right? You could say that we wouldn't be involved in the Ukrainian thing, but Chump never ended our involvement in Iraq, Afghanistan, or Syria like he said he would when he was candidate Chump. Instead he deepened our involvement in Syria and dropped more bombs per day than Obama did; assassinated a state dignitary at a public airport, and bragged about it.
Just what "consequences" are you referring to? I would be interested to know, and please don't cite some "federal regulations" or "conservative judge appointments". Please cite some real "consequence" you think the idiot in the WH controls. And please don't assume I am a Biden fan just because I can't stand that lying-ass Chump.
Personally, I haven't seen one if any importance change since Biden took over from Chump. The transition was seamless. Just like when Chump took over from Obama and kept half of Obama's bureaucrat staff. Elected officials.......even the WH ones.......are paid whores, and nothing more. There is only one party, the bankster-corporatocracy party, and both the democrats and republicans work for them. Elections are a psyop to make you think you have a say in the matter.......so you'll keep paying your taxes and obey like a good little American.
Bottom line: if you think an election is going to change something, then you're still plugged into the Matrix.
A good summary. There is a variable involved that messes up state comparisons of unemployment - 1.) in some states if you lose your job, you have to leave the state to get another one. This makes the reported unemployment rate in any individual state an incomplete predictor of actual economic conditions there. A classic case is Alaska, which often has low unemployment, but also limited to none at all opportunities to get employed if you lose your job. And away you go unless you've got only a couple of drug-addled brain cells to rub together. 2.) More generous state unemployment financial assistance can delay people moving to seek work. You'll notice the Raven's list of high unemployment states are mostly 'blue' ones, possibly because political policies make it more difficult to create jobs - but maybe also because the state's more generous financial support delays a move to find work. 3.) This article brought to my mind - again - that many supplied numbers are so incomplete and 'gamed' that they are useless for the act of actually pulling the trigger on a buy or sell order. As one wag said, "Something doesn't have to be 'normalized' unless it's abnormal to begin with." A second is the frustrated cry: "Don't tell me What! Tell me When!"
My view is stagflation light. Current interest rates are a return to normal and high government debt guarantees a slow growth economy. So, I am not sure where the sudden jump in unemployment is going to originate. Personally, I am glad to see wage inflation. The US worker has been screwed by outsourcing since the 70s. I find it funny when companies complain about loyalty. They rarely show their workers what they expect. How come an executive's job paying 40M a year can never be outsourced to India for 200K. Like the country, corporate America is a joke. We do not have serious leaders, and we do not address serious issues.
Define "normal," and please explain how raising rates on the largest mountain of debt the world has ever seen is going to return anything to your definition of normal.
We are easily paying more in interest right now than we spend on our defense budget. Our defense budget is bigger than the next 11 countries......combined.
If the world stops allowing us to offshore our debt, then we have to buy it in-house. When all those trillions held in foreign accounts come back to the US looking for a place to land, things are going to get pricey.
Think about that. Some foreign country buys our debt, then we take the money and go buy up whatever we want like some rich teenager, and if they piss us off, we come take our reserves and leave them with nothing. There was a time that was a good arrangement for them.......now it is only a good arrangement for us. If I were the head of another country looking to do business, I would look for another deal.
The party is over. Warren Buffet is even stating it publicly. Look at the cash horde he has and doesn't know what to do with it. Down deep he knows he should be buying gold, but that would require him to admit he was wrong with his pithy, smart-ass statements about gold.
No matter who is elected, no matter what the employment numbers say, no matter what the Fed does, and no matter what the zombie markets do,......the party is over.
This party was built on two dominant criteria: cheap energy, and unlimited government debt. Both of those have come to an end. You can hope and deny all you want, but energy has hit a wall. Do some research. It is not about choices or decisions being made by the global climate freaks. Global Climate Crisis Theory is a ploy being used to convince dumbed-down idiots that the way to save the planet is to use less energy. Saving the planet is not the goal. The use of less energy is. I am not going into a bunch of numbers here, but just realize that the US is 5% of the world's population and uses 20% of the daily world energy production..... every day. (World produces roughly 100 mbpd; we use 20 mbpd.) Of that 5% of the world's population, 21% are boomers and produce very little, and 21% are 18 and under and produce nothing. So of that 5%, 42% are a non-producing portion of society.......yet we use more oil than the 3 billion people in China and India combined. Not only is cheap energy over, but the amount of energy we get is about to be curtailed dramatically. You can't grow an economy on less energy......it is not possible.
Secondly, the world is not buying our debt any longer. The increase in rates was another hail Mary to try and induce purchases of our debt. In the 80s we ran a $1.5 trillion deficit for the decade, in the 90s we were at $1.3 trillion for the decade, in the 2000s our deficit went to $3.4 trillion, in the 2010s it jumped to a whopping $8.2 trillion (more than the entire history of the US combined), and in just 3 1/2 years of the 2020s, we are at $8.4 trillion dollars in deficits. The world is sick of buying our debt, and we have shown the world that if you piss us off, we will come take our reserves back and leave you with nothing.
I will leave you with this chart that clearly demonstrates the lights are about to be turned out. A party of this size ending takes some time for everyone to realize, but when the lights go out, everybody gets the picture. Not saying the lights are literally going out.......though possible.......but a unmistakable signal is coming.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2023-05-07_16-32-38.jpg?itok=wB_MvFX9
The only thing missing from the chart is an arrow pointing to 2017 that says, “Trump inaugurated” and one pointing to 2021 that says, “Biden inaugurated.”
Not sure what you are inferring, and I am not looking to pick a fight, but I would like to clarify.
To me there is only one party. In Trump's 4 years he ran up over $6 trillion dollars in national debt. It took Obama 8 years to run up $8 trillion, so Trump was well on his way to surpassing those that were before him; and Biden seamlessly picked up where those before him left off.
No one is willing to go against the banksters and corptacracy. The bankster and corporate elite are preying on the populace and destroying the sovereignty of our country. They are globalist.......they are NOT Americans. The politicians.....including Trump.....serve the billionaire elites that feed on the masses. We are like millions of serfs in a technocratic serfdom. We have no recourse, no representation, no escape.
Trump accomplished nothing in regards to what is going on in this country, other than to keep the DC swamp alive and kicking, keep the debt flowing, and keep the country divided and focused on him, rather than the real enemy. He is just another wrestler in the shit show, performing his act on the stage for the distraction and entertainment of the sheeple. The wrestlers don't run the show, they play their part. The wrestlers don't make policy, they follow it.
I cannot stand Chump, because I view him as the charlatan liar that he is. He had no legacy of conservatism or dialing back the "deep state." The day he left office, there was nothing to stand in the way of the evil bastards that have been running things all along.
If you believe he was legit, then you have to admit he was powerless. If he was powerless then, he damn sure is now.
If you believe "they" stole the election from him, what makes you imagine he will win this time?.........and if he does, will that not mean that they let him win, and therefore, wanted him to win........making him their choice, and not yours. Think about it.
The only thing I'm implying (not inferring) is that, according to the chart you provided, foreign purchases of US Treasuries increased slightly during Trump's 4-year reign, 2017 to 2021, then immediately began crashing upon Biden's inauguration. This highlights foreign governments' PERCEIVED trust in the US economy under the two presidents, not the presidents' ACTUAL competency or lack thereof. Foreign governments believed Trump to be competent and Biden to be incompetent in handling the US economy.
Your perseverant rant that "Trump accomplished nothing...", is "a charlatan and a liar," "had no legacy of conservatism", etc. will get no argument from me. I did not vote for Trump before and will not in 2024. But I have not seen anything in your comments that points to a better candidate. Your assertion that "there is only one party" is, with few exceptions (and Trump's not one of them), correct. So the solution to America's impending demise is to be found outside of the political system, if it is to be found at all. Perhaps you are right that, "We are like millions of serfs in a technocratic serfdom. We have no recourse, no representation, no escape." If that's true, then what's the point of writing about it? How is that different than Leftist snowflakes screaming at the sky?
No, I don't have a solution, either. At this point, I have resigned myself to Trump winning the Republican primary, which will cause the Democrat* to win the general election. After 4 years of Biden + 4 years of his flaming Left replacement*, there will not be enough of America left to salvage. In 2024 we will "vote ourselves into Socialism," and it won't really matter who is elected in 2028, if elections are held at all.
*Not Biden or Harris; probably someone much worse, like Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsom.
Nothing is ever accomplished until it first becomes a thought. That is why I believe it is important to discuss the truth and reality of our current world in an open manner so that people can develop their own thoughts.
There is a solution. The same solution that has occurred throughout human history. The same solution that gave us this country in the first place. There's a rule in life; "What you get it with is what you keep it with." Jefferson understood this as did many of the founders.
Regarding Trump's bid for the presidency. Ask any Trump supporter and they will swear up and down the election was stolen from him last time. If so, then here are the logical conclusions. If they could steal an election from a sitting President, then how could a presidential candidate ever hope to stop it from happening? If they kept him from being re-elected, then why can't they do it again? If they stole it last time, but he wins this time, will it be because they let him? And if they let him, does that mean he is their choice?
In regards to foreign purchases of US Treasuries, the current auctions are going pretty well. There are two sides of "foreigners" out there right now. There is the team that supports us...ECB, BOJ, BOE, BOC,.....and then there is the team that is leaving us. That would be led by China, Russia, and now to include Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, South Africa, and it looks like Pakistan is on the bubble. When the Fed, ECB, BOE, BOJ, BOA, and BOC are buying the debt of each others governments, then they are just trading money with themselves.
Who in their right mind would buy the debt of these bankrupt countries? Well the countries themselves and their sister countries that know if one goes down, they will all suffer with it.
I am not sure there is enough of "real" America left now to salvage. I have little to know hope of any transfer of power or take over that won't be even worse than what we have now. There is no leadership. That has been purposely removed so that we remain divided and fragmented. We have no recourse. We are in a lawless state, waiting for the next shoe to drop. Here's wishing you all the best.
Neely also pointed out yesterday that a different way to look at the employment picture is payroll taxes withheld. In her words “It’s not looking good”.
Are we are heading towards stagflation? absolutely!
And there is nothing that won’t convince me that this is a coordinated demolition of the economy.
We literally have the feds and the FDIC doing a hit job on regional banks, where JP Morgan collects the assets for pennies on the dollar, while leaving the liability for the taxpayers.
All of this just in time for them to role out a solution to a problem that they created: FedNow cbcd😒
Might I add: done so that the elite control our freedom with the result, as Victor Davis Hanson thinks, a two-tier system of a few elites and the rest are serfs. Of course every attempt in the past has failed, but the economic damage and loss in human life and happiness are much greater this time. The Plandemic was rehearsed as a military operation, not as a public health measure (Robert Malone MD). It is just that the CCP virus came before they were fully prepared and the toxic jab was knowingly pushed ignoring almost or probably all safety and efficacy testing previously required (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.). Since so much debt has been created without capital, the unwinding maybe as I have read, prices to rise by 3x (300%) inflation. The cbdcs can make it physically possible to accomplish this taxation/devaluation.
"We literally have the feds and the FDIC doing a hit job on regional banks"
I think they did a pretty good hit job on themselves.
Keep stacking
Jamie Dimon: "I don't set my salary, the board of directors does."
Stolen elections have consequences. Our republic died on Nov 3, 2020, when the deep state and DNC stole the election from Trump.
You really think that is the first time that has happened?.......and furthermore, you really think something would be different today if Chump had of won?
You do realize Biden is still spending some of the debt that Chump ran up, right? You could say that we wouldn't be involved in the Ukrainian thing, but Chump never ended our involvement in Iraq, Afghanistan, or Syria like he said he would when he was candidate Chump. Instead he deepened our involvement in Syria and dropped more bombs per day than Obama did; assassinated a state dignitary at a public airport, and bragged about it.
Just what "consequences" are you referring to? I would be interested to know, and please don't cite some "federal regulations" or "conservative judge appointments". Please cite some real "consequence" you think the idiot in the WH controls. And please don't assume I am a Biden fan just because I can't stand that lying-ass Chump.
Personally, I haven't seen one if any importance change since Biden took over from Chump. The transition was seamless. Just like when Chump took over from Obama and kept half of Obama's bureaucrat staff. Elected officials.......even the WH ones.......are paid whores, and nothing more. There is only one party, the bankster-corporatocracy party, and both the democrats and republicans work for them. Elections are a psyop to make you think you have a say in the matter.......so you'll keep paying your taxes and obey like a good little American.
Bottom line: if you think an election is going to change something, then you're still plugged into the Matrix.
Gold and silver will benefit from this.
Hi, I have subscribed to this using a different email. Can you help me with changing it?
A good summary. There is a variable involved that messes up state comparisons of unemployment - 1.) in some states if you lose your job, you have to leave the state to get another one. This makes the reported unemployment rate in any individual state an incomplete predictor of actual economic conditions there. A classic case is Alaska, which often has low unemployment, but also limited to none at all opportunities to get employed if you lose your job. And away you go unless you've got only a couple of drug-addled brain cells to rub together. 2.) More generous state unemployment financial assistance can delay people moving to seek work. You'll notice the Raven's list of high unemployment states are mostly 'blue' ones, possibly because political policies make it more difficult to create jobs - but maybe also because the state's more generous financial support delays a move to find work. 3.) This article brought to my mind - again - that many supplied numbers are so incomplete and 'gamed' that they are useless for the act of actually pulling the trigger on a buy or sell order. As one wag said, "Something doesn't have to be 'normalized' unless it's abnormal to begin with." A second is the frustrated cry: "Don't tell me What! Tell me When!"