Private Panic

Ugly data from private credit keeps emerging. How long can the market ignore it?

For months I’ve been arguing that investors are ignoring a growing list of warning signs across the economy and financial markets.

Stocks are in a “historic bubble”, crypto is heading directly into a risk that nobody seems to be talking about, the world’s largest IPO is possibly in the midst of becoming a systemic risk and issuance of new equity appears to portend a market drawdown.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains trapped between stubborn inflation and an equity market that still looks significantly overvalued. Consumers are exhausted, buried under debt, and increasingly unable to fuel another leg of speculative excess. Meanwhile, the bond market continues calling bullshit on the whole narrative.

Against that backdrop, I’ve also spent the better part of the past year documenting the implosion of the private credit market. And if there was any lingering argument that private credit redemption pressures were temporary or isolated, new data puts that theory to rest.