Reports hit the wire on Monday morning that Nancy Pelosi, after much back and forth, would be taking to Taiwan this week. She is supposed to arrive in coming hours as Taiwan “braces itself” for a show of force from China.
August 2nd 2022
Taiwan is reportedly preparing a military escort for Pelsoi, as of this morning:
And Chinese government officials continue to warn the U.S. over the visit, stating as recently as a couple of hours ago that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan would be a “gross interference” in China’s internal affairs:
Recall, Chinese mouthpieces have repeatedly warned against Pelosi going to Taiwan:
The Reuters news agency quotes Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian as saying Monday it would be "a gross interference in China's internal affairs" if Pelosi were to stop in Taiwan. He warned it would result in "very serious developments and consequences.""We would like to tell the United States once again that China is standing by, the Chinese People's Liberation Army will never sit idly by, and China will take resolute responses and strong countermeasures to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity," Zhao told a regular daily briefing.
The Reuters news agency quotes Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian as saying Monday it would be "a gross interference in China's internal affairs" if Pelosi were to stop in Taiwan. He warned it would result in "very serious developments and consequences."
"We would like to tell the United States once again that China is standing by, the Chinese People's Liberation Army will never sit idly by, and China will take resolute responses and strong countermeasures to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity," Zhao told a regular daily briefing.
Hu Xijin, Editor for China’s Global Times and all around gnat at the Twitter barbeque, wrote on Monday":
Let her go to Taiwan. But pray before departure: wish herself a safe journey and wish herself not be defined by history as a sinner who starts a spiral of escalation process expanding military frictions to a large-scale war in the Taiwan Strait.
In the words of Van Wilder, “I’ll write that down”.
Anyway, when Pelosi’s trip itinerary was released earlier this week, it didn’t include any mentions to Taiwan, but rather to Singapore and other Indo-Pacific destinations.
"The trip will focus on mutual security, economic partnership and democratic governance in the Indo-Pacific region," the House Speaker’s office told CBS last week.
"Biden dispatched senior officials, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan, to lay out the risks to Pelosi, but people familiar with the situation said she had decided to press ahead with the landmark trip,” FT reported mid day Monday.
I can’t really wrap my head around whether or not Pelosi going to Taiwan is a good idea or not, but I certainly think that heeding caution based on threats from China, especially when the U.S. has a longstanding stance supporting Taiwan as an independent nation-state, may not be the right move.
However, yesterday, it is worth noting that John Kirby came out and said that the U.S. does not support Taiwan’s independence:
August 1st 2022
For what it’s worth, I think that China does try to take back Taiwan. I think China’s actions over the last decade, including de-dollarizing with Russia, supporting a new global reserve currency, spying on the Fed and supporting Russia and breaking further from the West after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has made it clear where China stands.
Russia taking back Ukraine will act as the impetus for China to take back Taiwan. The poor results of economic sanctions against Russia have likely gone on to show China that consequences for such an invasion may be muted.
I think that such action from China could result in similar sanctions as we’ve seen with Russia. This is a key reason I am avoiding Chinese equities, as I wrote about a few weeks back.
I’d love to know what my readers think:
Should Pelosi be going to Taiwan on this trip?
Are China’s warnings worth even considering?
Should the U.S. be involved at all with a possible conflict between China-Taiwan?
Leave your responses below.
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