Reports hit the wire on Monday morning that Nancy Pelosi, after much back and forth, would be taking to Taiwan this week. She is supposed to arrive in coming hours as Taiwan “braces itself” for a show of force from China.
And Chinese government officials continue to warn the U.S. over the visit, stating as recently as a couple of hours ago that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan would be a “gross interference” in China’s internal affairs:
The Reuters news agency quotes Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian as saying Monday it would be "a gross interference in China's internal affairs" if Pelosi were to stop in Taiwan. He warned it would result in "very serious developments and consequences."
"We would like to tell the United States once again that China is standing by, the Chinese People's Liberation Army will never sit idly by, and China will take resolute responses and strong countermeasures to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity," Zhao told a regular daily briefing.
Hu Xijin, Editor for China’s Global Times and all around gnat at the Twitter barbeque, wrote on Monday":
Let her go to Taiwan. But pray before departure: wish herself a safe journey and wish herself not be defined by history as a sinner who starts a spiral of escalation process expanding military frictions to a large-scale war in the Taiwan Strait.
In the words of Van Wilder, “I’ll write that down”.
Anyway, when Pelosi’s trip itinerary was released earlier this week, it didn’t include any mentions to Taiwan, but rather to Singapore and other Indo-Pacific destinations.
"The trip will focus on mutual security, economic partnership and democratic governance in the Indo-Pacific region," the House Speaker’s office told CBS last week.
"Biden dispatched senior officials, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan, to lay out the risks to Pelosi, but people familiar with the situation said she had decided to press ahead with the landmark trip,” FT reported mid day Monday.
I can’t really wrap my head around whether or not Pelosi going to Taiwan is a good idea or not, but I certainly think that heeding caution based on threats from China, especially when the U.S. has a longstanding stance supporting Taiwan as an independent nation-state, may not be the right move.
However, yesterday, it is worth noting that John Kirby came out and said that the U.S. does not support Taiwan’s independence:
For what it’s worth, I think that China does try to take back Taiwan. I think China’s actions over the last decade, including de-dollarizing with Russia, supporting a new global reserve currency, spying on the Fed and supporting Russia and breaking further from the West after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has made it clear where China stands.
Russia taking back Ukraine will act as the impetus for China to take back Taiwan. The poor results of economic sanctions against Russia have likely gone on to show China that consequences for such an invasion may be muted.
I think that such action from China could result in similar sanctions as we’ve seen with Russia. This is a key reason I am avoiding Chinese equities, as I wrote about a few weeks back.
I’d love to know what my readers think:
Should Pelosi be going to Taiwan on this trip?
Are China’s warnings worth even considering?
Should the U.S. be involved at all with a possible conflict between China-Taiwan?
Leave your responses below.
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I have read well over a dozen articles on this visit and I have yet to get the answer to my question, why the hell is she going to Taiwan? What is so urgent that she needs to physically be there? She's in charge of the House (I presume, I'm not American), why is she taking on the Secretary of State's job?
Paul Pelosi bought 20,000 shares of NVDA and all of a sudden Nancy has urgent business to tend to in Taiwan. You'll never get your answer to this question because there is a litany of excuses her office can deploy on why she needs to go, if for no other reason that to put #3 in line to the POTUS isn't scared of pissing off China.
Seems like the only real "point" to the whole thing is to call China's bluff. You know because we have nothing better to attend than putting China into a position to lose face or take action... apparently.
Maybe she has a terminal illness and would rather die a martyr than in a hospital bed, and wants to give her party a big Midterm boost when her plane is shot down.
Legacy building her resume before she loses control of the House and rides off to retirement. 1st high level politician to visit Taiwan since Newt Ginrich 25 years ago.
I think it's somewhat obvious. Would you send Biden who can't utter a coherent sentence? Kamala is out. First, she has pressing duties managing the non crisis at the border. Second, our racist nation /sar pales in comparison to the Chinese / Asian mind. No way is a black woman going to be taken seriously. Who is next in succession? Nancy. This is all orchestrated drama to pretend like Nancy is rogue to provide cover to a provocation to China. It's all to make China blink and see what their order of battle is along with their concomitant kill chain.
Will China blink? I say yes. The PLA Navy is not ready to support amphibious landing , keep the Taiwan Straits open AND lose their export market.
Maybe because she is really a paid-for Chinese asset - they want to use this as an excuse to physically invade Taiwan. Russia's move on Ukraine was a perfect test to the waters.
Pelosi's trip to Taiwan is the most reckless thing I have ever seen a US politician do. All we have to do is continue the status quo with Taiwan and there will be peace. Her trip could start WWIII. WWI was started over less. I have been to Taiwan about 20 times and I have visited China several times. The people in China and Taiwan love each other. The business people in China and Taiwan love doing business with each other. It's only the politicians that don't get along. It's not worth the risk for her to go to Taiwan. I was just in Taiwan in March. I'm glad that I'm not there now.
Pelosi absolutely should go to Taiwan. I'm tired of our country and these elected officials not having the balls to stand up to these other countries all for some false threats of violence and very strong language. There is a 99% chance that China will do nothing to Nancy. They know we're the United States of America. They know our military prowess, and they know who are allies are. Despite China and Russia's growing strength, time has proven that we are still a super power to be feared, and we need to start flexing that muscle and taking share away from Russia and China. China's warnings are nothing but hot air, as taking out the 3rd most powerful elected official would be nothing but an out right act of war. We need to stand up to China and Russia for the sake of our economy, sovereignty, and national security and that includes helping Taiwan defend themselves from these undemocratic invaders.
Agreed, despite all the shenanigans and disfunction in our govt currently, there is little need to keep cowering to China, they will use any excuse for aggression. China is financially in a bad place even worse than we are because we could stop our nonsense and unleash the full power of our economy. China does not have this.
As far as being a super power we're not, yes we have big bombs and a bid army, but we don't manufacture anything in US anymore, everything we use in our daily lives comes from china, if they stop all shipments to the united states'for just one month our economy would collapse, and our way of life, is that a chance we want to take?
1.) That would make China suffer just as much as us, so that would never happen in your frankly narrow hypothetical.
2.) Second, you are wrong about us not being a super power. Super powers are defined as, a state that possesses military or economic might, or both, and general influence vastly superior to that of other states. We by all means, fit that definition.
3.) Everything in our daily lives does NOT come from China.
4.) We were able to rejigger our entire economy during WWII to mass produce war vessels, I refuse to believe we cannot do that again.
We like to view US political actions from a logical standpoint with the assumption that our officials are doing things for the greater good of the country.
That assumption is the problem and is why everything that has been going on seems nonsensical. Their actions are perfectly rational if you view it from their own perspectives and incentives, the fact is that they have very different priorities - primarily personal power, personal wealth (through corruption), and serving their globalist masters who have an agenda of weakening national governments so they can consolidate their own power.
Once we view the world through this lens, everything makes perfect sense.
Nah. It only serves to antagonize China. The US should not be entangling itself into foreign affairs. If the Skeleton of the House needs to talk to Taiwan, she should hop on a Zoom call.
Are China’s warnings worth even considering?
Of course.
Should the U.S. be involved at all with a possible conflict between China-Taiwan?
No, but that's what politicians do -- they start ish. Probably to goose their spouse's portfolio full of war-linked weapons manufacturers.
Taking the plane down would indeed establish quite interesting precedent and would result into reduction of costs in many government budgets in the chapter "foreign travel".
IMHO, China is going to figure out, that letting her return home is going to cause more damage to the US economy than making the point about sovereignty over the island.
The idea that Nancy Pelosi's visit changes anything big-picture wise is way overblown in my opinion.
Over the next years/decades the US and China are going to clash, because that's their natural direction. The only question is: how long will it take... could be longer if both sides take back a bit of their respective egos, could be shorter if something stupid happens. It's not a question of "if" but of "when".
sure let her go, they have something they want to do that we are not aware of, but, if something happens to her, let the gov go fight (officials themselves) i'm not going anywhere,
don't know the context enough, conflict between china and taiwan? as i recently learned the second largest party in taiwan which lost by a few points is very pro china, so, its a matter of time before they themselves join china, so.. lets understand the context and weigh our options/decisions
Nancy P's motivation is always only money (stock options). She probably bought out-of-the-money LEAP calls in Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. And maybe a casket manufacturer.
I am not a Pelosi fan but I am all for a diplomatic trip to Taiwan so long as Taiwan understands the risks and wants her there. This is a typical move of a despotic government using bullying tactics when other actors aren’t going along with their narrative. CCP views Taiwan as part of China but they’ve been self governing themselves and a US ally for 70 years. Pelosi’s visit undermines that narrative and provides a nod of legitimacy to Taiwan’s independent government. If they surrender this visit as a result of China flexing, what is next? No accepting Taiwanese exports? I actually commend Nancy going. Hope she does.
Of course she should go....Next it will be The Solomon Islands or Fiji or any country China considers within its "jurisdiction" because it has built an artificial reef nearby.
If we fail to stand up and defend a country that has NO WISH to be part of the CCP and whose proud people loath the idea of losing their freedom to Beijing then we have to display force. Force is the only act the playground bully ever understands. Just look at Hong Kong.
Any elected official from the US has every right to visit Taiwan, China does not dictate what we can or cannot do. We live in a free world (thanks to the USA). Thanks to DEMOCRACY which is what Pelosi is emphasizing and signaling to China, you cannot take Taiwan by force, don't even think about it. The US is committed to Taiwan, it has been our foreign policy for a long time since every past Rep or Dem admin and President Bush was the one who had the BALLS to say outright the US will come to Taiwan's defense "whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself" in the event of attack by China.
"If China decides to use force, the United States must help Taiwan defend itself," then Gov. Bush said. "The Chinese can figure out what that means, but that's going to mean a resolute stand on my part."
President Bush was the first President to outright say the US will resolutely defend Taiwan and stand by Taiwan.
Apr 2021 Delegation of Republican Senators Lindsey Graham, Menendez, Burr, Rob Portman, Sasse and delegation of Senator Dodd, Deputy Secretary Armitage, & Deputy Secretary Steinberg visited Taiwan
Mar 2021 former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm visit Taiwan, Pompeyo also visited Taiwan
Stop with the partisan bullshit, what I see is Americans attacking Pelosi (like Trump is) and taking China's side saying she is "provoking" China. Listen to yourself and were you also quiet when all these Republican Senators visited Taiwan, did President Bush "provoke" China by saying the US will defend Taiwan whatever it took.
Tired of viewing everything in a bias partisan lens, it's sad and the main reason for America's slow decline. Taiwan is of important strategic interest to USA's national security, semiconductors are critical for economic prosperity and times of war, and to counter-balance China in that region, for Christ's sake some of you need to read up on international relations and US foreign policy to understand the nuances and importance of Taiwan to the US and democratic hegemony.
Pelosi's trip to Taiwan is irrelevant in the overall scheme, and is more of a distraction from the Deep State continuing plan inflict as much damage and pain on the US/Global economies/citizens, i.e., look here, not there, and, of course, set the stage for another stolen election. Regardless, nothing is going to work - NCSWIC...
What's going to happen to access to chips, if China annexes Taiwan? Would China hold access to chips hostage knowing how dependent US is on production in Taiwan? Will the US allow that to happen without lifting a finger? Is Pelosi trip sending a message? Is Pelosi such a loose cannon as to be acting independently of Biden administration's larger strategy a la China? My guess is no. My guess is the behind the scenes maneuvering is much more complex and opaque than what is being observed of both Biden's and Xi's administrations.
Taiwan has been leaning toward reunification for years. As one post mentions, a huge faction in Taiwan wants to be part of China again. It’s a lot like America today. They are looking for someone to tell them what to do.
What’s the rush for Pelosi to go there anyway???
With the state of our country these days we need to mind our own business and fix a bunch of stuff around here.
We need to leave NATO, tell the UN, WHO and every other ‘global’ organization to stop asking us for help and stop trying to fix the world! Our country is debating whether men can get pregnant and we’re supposed to bring order to the world??? It’s laughable.
Ukraine should be a wake-up call to how well we can fix things these days. Our elected officials are poking every hornets nest in the world and ‘shits about to get real’.
Why now? Why her? She is no diplomat and she's out of her league. In essence, it makes no sense. The worst bit of foreign "diplomacy" ever. Would likely start a war.
I'm actually more surprised by the tone of Chinese warnings. They're so strong will they feel forced to respond if she goes? What will they do? Will they escort her to Japanese air space? Will they do something worse and start a war? Will they do nothing and look like fools? Btw, if you want to know why the U.S. has not won a war in 80 years just listen to retired Rear Admiral John Kirby, personification of the unqualified, useless bureaucrat devoid of actual military skills that permeates today's command structure.
Even Zero Hedge managed to print FAKE NEWWS. I'm surprised.
No, Taiwan is not even a nation, let alone an "independent nation". Even the government of Taiwan recognises that the island is legally a part of the People's Republic of China. Their only disagreement is which government is the legitimate government of the WHOLE of China, Beijing or Taipei? Americans need to stop making up silly fairy stories. Or get an education.
The reason for this sabre-rattling is simple - the USA is crumbling in front of the world's eyes. The American Century has suddenly ended - it didn't even make 80 years. USA RIP.
Under this "leadership" everything America touches turns to crap. The American people are being hammered by a kleptocratic political class and don't have the spine to deal with them.
So what's the answer? How does America's intellectual leadership handle the problem? Toga party.
Part 1: Just a few points: Taiwan/Republic of China is de-facto independent, except in name only. It is self governing in all respects. But due to historical and realpolitik reasons it should not and cannot declare independence. In practicality it achieves almost nothing that it doesn't already have. In fact, both the CCP and the Kuomintang (previous Nationalist Party) in Taiwan realize this, with both claiming to be the legitimate rulers of "one China" , which is where the "One China" policy came from. This is fine, it allows for each side to go and govern its own way and trade and interact with each other. Many people have relatives and business and cultural connections on both sides.
Who do you think is Taiwan's biggest trading partner? No, it's not the US , or any other south East Asian country- it's Mainland China (the PRC) , and the bilateral trade is worth about 20-30% of Taiwan's GDP! And Taiwan has a US$100 Million SURPLUS in trade with China! As an example, regarding the nonsense about semiconductor chip supply, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has some factories in Mainland China and counted the PRC as one of its main customers and suppliers, until US sanctions put an end to that. So leave both the PRC and Taiwan to sort out its own historical problems and both will prosper. But that is precisely what some US politicians don't want. They will use the DPP
(Taiwan's current Pro-independence governing party) to provoke China , not because they really care about Taiwan, but simply as a means to hurt the PRC, even if it means Taiwan is destroyed either economically or in actuality . And it has always been the Western Media and/or politicians who have been trumpeting that a communist invasion has been imminent - all the better to sell billions of dollars of military arms. The PRC's line is "peaceful reunification" which may be a pipe dream, and it reserves the right to use force if independence is declared, but pragmatically knows that an actual invasion is just not realistic. But an economic and literal blockade is certainly possible - but perhaps that is what the US is actually pushing for- anything to provoke the PRC into making a rash move that would cripple China and make it an international pariah - even at the cost of hurting everyone else -the real people of America, China and Taiwan who will suffer just as much or even more- just for the sake of geopolitical games.
Why the Taiwan visit now? Some have suggested it could Mrs Pelosi's swan song before her position (Speaker of the House of Representatives) switches from Democracts to Republicans.
News this week is that Mr Pelosi's traffic accident on May 28 was way more than a fender bender. The Speaker went to Taiwan on Tuesday and court appreance for Mr Pelosi is Wednesday. Coincidence? Or is she trying to overshadow her husband's court appearance?
- both vehicles totaled
- Pauly Pelosi reported to have failed sobriety tests and 0.82 alcohol level plus "a drug" when tested over 2 hours later
- when asked for DL he showed his donor card (not organ donor card, it was his CHP donor card)
- other person injured
- today judge has been replaced, one day before court tomorrow
Whatever Pelosi's reasons for doing this, the only thing we know for certain is she is doing this to benefit herself and perhaps some of her scumbag cohorts. Nothing she does is for the sole purpose of benefiting her country or future generations of Americans. But she is just another DC psychopath doing what psychopaths do, so to expect otherwise would be delusional.
I dont know why she felt the need to go except as a grand finale before (in case?) the gavel is stripped from her hand following the next (fair we hope) election…. But now that Biden and the Pentagon advised her not to go, and China has screamed like a stuck pig, she needs to go otherwise China detects weakness, Taiwan falls faster, and our chip off-shoring bites us in the ass big time.. like societal collapse…. So as much as i have a huge distaste for the San Francisco treat, and given the current bumbling situation the US is now in, I am NOW rooting for her trip to hold off the inevitable…. The calvary may be coming, but I fear they wont make it in time or at all.
China is a paper tiger. It's military is closer to Russia in capablility than the United States. The most complex and hard operation is projecting power across geography, especially trying to invade an island. It is the only reason the United States is still a world power....we can project power almost anywhere in the world. There is no comparable state that can do this right now. It is doubtful China can do it.
IMO, Biden, thru Kirby, is opening the door to the CCP invading Taiwan. First step, a full blockade to sea ports to be followed shortly by air traffic. Run them out of energy then move in.
Losing TWN to China would be a disaster for global commerce. Semis are key.
Pelosi should go and is there now. It demonstrates that the corrupt Biden admin is not in full control of US foreign policy and that there well could be an a strong answer from the US.
I don't say this arguing, but there are so many layers of Corruption and Blackmail now, that it is nearly impossible to tell who is doing what to who. - - -
(If I was Xi, and my top Spymaster told me that he had nothing to Blackmail Hunter and Daddy with, I would have him executed, organs donated, and what remained, dumped in an unmarked grave.)
"This Global Times report is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT because of a few pearls buried in the final copy. It badly needs a major rewrite.
In its absence, here they are - the 3 major takeaways that may spell out the full Chinese reaction, further on down the road, to the Witch’s narcissistic stunt.
"If Pelosi's aircraft enters our exercise area, we would have to take measures to eject, intercept, escort, and send a radio warning… If Pelosi gets her way, our warplanes may fire shells diagonally ahead of Pelosi's plane as a further warning.”
That’s all plausible. It would not come down to shooting down Witch Airlines - and its American protecting fighter jets.
WHO’S RESPONSIBLE
"China will see it as a provocative action permitted by the Biden administration rather than a personal decision made by Pelosi.”
That’s EXACTLY what Xi told Crash Test Dummy’s earpiece last week. And that’s the ultimate red line. Xi will be reaching THE EXACT SAME CONCLUSION reached by Putin earlier this year: the Empire of Lies is non-agreement capable, and there’s no point in expecting them to respect diplomacy and/or rule of law in international relations.
WHAT’S NEXT
A consensus among Chinese analysts that mirrors the consensus at the very top:
“The Russia-Ukraine crisis has just let the world see the consequence of pushing a major power into a corner, said analysts. China will steadily speed up its process of reunification and declare the end of US domination of the world order.”
It’s now Russia-China all out, in deep synch. Only an irretrievably rotten Empire of Dummies would bring this outcome upon itself."
Why continue to follow the "wisdom" of our foreign policy experts is beyond me. The last success they had was in 1945 and that wasn't all that great. America is a gasping dying empire that doesn't realize that it's almost finished. The US could no more help defend Taiwan that it can Ukraine. We risk nuclear war to line the pockets of the MIC. And don't tell me that Biden couldn't have stopped this visit. This is the most reckless, incompetent administration ever. And the GOP is even worse on China.
So, if you believe MSM, Pelosi has landed in Taiwan. That has undoubtedly set off the chain of actions waiting to happen in China. My bet is economic against us and future plans for invasion for Taiwan. Both of which will not benefit anyone but China. We'll see soon enough!
Apart from what has already been pointed out below, there are additional considerations that nobody has seemed to include (or maybe I missed it).
For example, China has been rather successful with *existing* attacks on our economy via the corona hoax. By our inexplicably following their "example" of mitigation strategies and the plain fact that it is the "Wuhan Virus" that alone has resulted in incalculable damage to our economy and our very way of life.
Furthermore, their continued obsession with full-on "hard" lockdowns just so happens to coincidentally exacerbate our supply chain issues. Chip shortages and many other areas of supply have become critical.
While I don't try to understand how, I've heard numerous times how China owns our monetized national debt.
That don't need to go "kinetic" against us to cause even further substantial damage to our country. Lastly, if they attack Taiwan and we back them, we can likely count on Russia helping them with whatever weapons technologies that have worked very well for them against our "assistance" there in Ukraine.
The whole thing give us no benefit and is yet another self-destructive adventure by the idiot Democrats and the Biden administration -- let's not pretend that he's not tacitly allowing it.
How would one properly describe the Chinese communists?
Intelligent, patient, shrewd - what? Amoral savages. Yes, savages. They loosed COVID knowingly on the world. They are stone hearted killers. Ask the Chinese mothers whose baby girls have been murdered since Mao came to power. Ask the Uighers who this regime is.
Playing further weakness to them will embolden them further, maybe much further. If it comes to a shooting match they will be encroaching not only on Taiwan but closely adjacent Japanese islands. Japan WILL shoot back. They know their neighbors better than we. Then what does the US do??? Nothing?
Better to push back now and cow the shrewd savages before they cross the next line.
1. Flex muscles for the mid-terms to show democrats are tough on China?
2. Nancy along with hubbie Paul are huge tech and especially Silicone Valley supporters and beneficiaries?$$$ A connection with computer chips we need and Silicone Valley needs to keep a handle on? Especially with the strong pro Chinese parties gaining strength and momentum these days? A connection here?
3. Maybe, she is trying to take a hard stand against China to counter what she believes is too much weakness and favoritism from Uncle Joe? Joe has made millions thru his boy Hunter and brother Jim over there? They are very tied in with the defense and intelligence industries? Joe told her not to go?; Sec Def Austin said don't go? Uncle Joe even came out yesterday thru Kirby stating we don't support Taiwan? Strange, maybe trying to help cover for Nancy going over there? Joe is a super globalist and China supporter, again, he's made tons of money over there with his elitist friends and cohorts? Something going on personally between Uncle Joe and Nancy?
We have to remember this is politics. It will not probably be rational, logical, ethical or principled. In fact, it most likely will be the opposite. In politics, it's fear, greed, status, power and money. The one thing that is MAYBE gained here, is that it shows as always, we are unpredictable, and hard to pin down, which is difficult from your opponent's viewpoint? As usual, our opponents are asking? what the hell are they doing now! lol (My answer - hell if we know, but we're making money baby!) lol
The reason she's going is because that's what wealthy insiders do when they have a successful trade. They take a trip oversees to celebrate. I hope she visits Taiwan and never comes back.
She shouldn't even hold public office, although that "standard" is so watered down now - can you imagine Alex Hamilton and Tom Jefferson trying to have a conversation with her?
Would you go on a trip in defiance of the CCP, poking a nasty hornet's nest, knowing that Biden is the Commander in Chief of the US Military? I certainly wouldn't. Going there shows a confidence in Biden that I do not share.
I heard she was scheduled for a swimsuit photo session at the National Palace Museum. Considering the museum has items spanning 8,000 years she will look sort of young there.
I’m the last fan of Pelosi but she is Speaker of the House and there is more nuance here. We officially have ‘unofficial’ good relations with Taiwan. Take the individual out of the office….If the sitting US Speaker of the House wishes to make a visit to a country the US has unofficial diplomatic relations with in the historical context of Taiwan, then that’s ok. The Chinese know Speaker Pelosi is hated by half of the US and are exploiting that fact to the maximum amount in order to further drive the divide in US politics and in the US citizenry. To allow China to establish what is and isn’t ok in this very nuanced context is a submission by the US and not appropriate. The thunder over this trip is the Chinese government testing both the US and the Taiwanese government. I don’t think they believe they can get it to change, but they want to know if they can. Seizing Taiwan is not a thing they do on a late scheduled trip by a senior American leader. They have built up forces opposite Taiwan to build pressure and to be perceived as serious. But an invasion of Taiwan is serious business and no where near a given success story. Could there be some type of other response to the visit (cyber attacks, strongly worded messages, increased harassment of the Taiwanese military, political/economic difficulties for Taiwanese businesses, etc). Absolutely. That said, it is my opinion that the long term strategy is not to outright invade Taiwan, but to create conditions in the South China Sea to where they will be invited, at least in part. They are playing a longer game….this is most probably a move of assessment. For a timeline of when they may invade…give it a few years for the corrosive effect of internal US systemic political corrosion from events like this to have taken a much deeper hold. Couple that to a few more years of the crisis in US Military Recruiting (it’s exceptionally bad, historically bad for the all volunteer force, bad as in current trends see gross reductions in manpower available at the cutting edge in 3 years) and we look at a post 2026 timeframe for a more probable period with respect to a military invasion across the straight.
China will not invade Taiwan over this visit (they will eventually do it on their own schedule), but they may shoot down her plane to cause chaos in the US. Remember, she is taking 5 Dem congressmen with her. If the plane is shot down, the House flips (R) by 1 vote as long as Cheney and Kinsinger vote (R), which is doubtful. The House could be without a speaker for months. They know that Biden will not go to war with them, and if he tried, the USA would lose badly.
I think the probability of the Chinese Government outright assassinating (or capturing, or forcing down) 6 US Congressman including the Speaker of the House is exceptionally low. But, “that’s like, my opinion man”.
I have read well over a dozen articles on this visit and I have yet to get the answer to my question, why the hell is she going to Taiwan? What is so urgent that she needs to physically be there? She's in charge of the House (I presume, I'm not American), why is she taking on the Secretary of State's job?
I was asking my friend the same thing last night. The trip kinda came out of nowhere - what's the point?
Paul Pelosi bought 20,000 shares of NVDA and all of a sudden Nancy has urgent business to tend to in Taiwan. You'll never get your answer to this question because there is a litany of excuses her office can deploy on why she needs to go, if for no other reason that to put #3 in line to the POTUS isn't scared of pissing off China.
Seems like the only real "point" to the whole thing is to call China's bluff. You know because we have nothing better to attend than putting China into a position to lose face or take action... apparently.
Maybe she has a terminal illness and would rather die a martyr than in a hospital bed, and wants to give her party a big Midterm boost when her plane is shot down.
Legacy building her resume before she loses control of the House and rides off to retirement. 1st high level politician to visit Taiwan since Newt Ginrich 25 years ago.
I think it's somewhat obvious. Would you send Biden who can't utter a coherent sentence? Kamala is out. First, she has pressing duties managing the non crisis at the border. Second, our racist nation /sar pales in comparison to the Chinese / Asian mind. No way is a black woman going to be taken seriously. Who is next in succession? Nancy. This is all orchestrated drama to pretend like Nancy is rogue to provide cover to a provocation to China. It's all to make China blink and see what their order of battle is along with their concomitant kill chain.
Will China blink? I say yes. The PLA Navy is not ready to support amphibious landing , keep the Taiwan Straits open AND lose their export market.
Nothing burger at least while Nancy is in town.
Votes. One of her main talking points is a China hardliner regarding human rights (like Tienanmen Square in 91).
Maybe because she is really a paid-for Chinese asset - they want to use this as an excuse to physically invade Taiwan. Russia's move on Ukraine was a perfect test to the waters.
Pelosi's trip to Taiwan is the most reckless thing I have ever seen a US politician do. All we have to do is continue the status quo with Taiwan and there will be peace. Her trip could start WWIII. WWI was started over less. I have been to Taiwan about 20 times and I have visited China several times. The people in China and Taiwan love each other. The business people in China and Taiwan love doing business with each other. It's only the politicians that don't get along. It's not worth the risk for her to go to Taiwan. I was just in Taiwan in March. I'm glad that I'm not there now.
Pelosi absolutely should go to Taiwan. I'm tired of our country and these elected officials not having the balls to stand up to these other countries all for some false threats of violence and very strong language. There is a 99% chance that China will do nothing to Nancy. They know we're the United States of America. They know our military prowess, and they know who are allies are. Despite China and Russia's growing strength, time has proven that we are still a super power to be feared, and we need to start flexing that muscle and taking share away from Russia and China. China's warnings are nothing but hot air, as taking out the 3rd most powerful elected official would be nothing but an out right act of war. We need to stand up to China and Russia for the sake of our economy, sovereignty, and national security and that includes helping Taiwan defend themselves from these undemocratic invaders.
Yeah, and what percent chance is there that China will take actions which even further damage our economy even further over it?
Agreed, despite all the shenanigans and disfunction in our govt currently, there is little need to keep cowering to China, they will use any excuse for aggression. China is financially in a bad place even worse than we are because we could stop our nonsense and unleash the full power of our economy. China does not have this.
As far as being a super power we're not, yes we have big bombs and a bid army, but we don't manufacture anything in US anymore, everything we use in our daily lives comes from china, if they stop all shipments to the united states'for just one month our economy would collapse, and our way of life, is that a chance we want to take?
Several things here:
1.) That would make China suffer just as much as us, so that would never happen in your frankly narrow hypothetical.
2.) Second, you are wrong about us not being a super power. Super powers are defined as, a state that possesses military or economic might, or both, and general influence vastly superior to that of other states. We by all means, fit that definition.
3.) Everything in our daily lives does NOT come from China.
4.) We were able to rejigger our entire economy during WWII to mass produce war vessels, I refuse to believe we cannot do that again.
--- Should Pelosi be going to Taiwan on this trip? No.
---Are China’s warnings worth even considering? Yes.
---Should the U.S. be involved at all with a possible conflict between China-Taiwan? No.
We should recognize our second rate power status, seek peace with all countries, resign from NATO, and focus on correcting our own weaknesses .
We like to view US political actions from a logical standpoint with the assumption that our officials are doing things for the greater good of the country.
That assumption is the problem and is why everything that has been going on seems nonsensical. Their actions are perfectly rational if you view it from their own perspectives and incentives, the fact is that they have very different priorities - primarily personal power, personal wealth (through corruption), and serving their globalist masters who have an agenda of weakening national governments so they can consolidate their own power.
Once we view the world through this lens, everything makes perfect sense.
Should Pelosi be going to Taiwan on this trip?
Nah. It only serves to antagonize China. The US should not be entangling itself into foreign affairs. If the Skeleton of the House needs to talk to Taiwan, she should hop on a Zoom call.
Are China’s warnings worth even considering?
Of course.
Should the U.S. be involved at all with a possible conflict between China-Taiwan?
No, but that's what politicians do -- they start ish. Probably to goose their spouse's portfolio full of war-linked weapons manufacturers.
Taking the plane down would indeed establish quite interesting precedent and would result into reduction of costs in many government budgets in the chapter "foreign travel".
IMHO, China is going to figure out, that letting her return home is going to cause more damage to the US economy than making the point about sovereignty over the island.
The idea that Nancy Pelosi's visit changes anything big-picture wise is way overblown in my opinion.
Over the next years/decades the US and China are going to clash, because that's their natural direction. The only question is: how long will it take... could be longer if both sides take back a bit of their respective egos, could be shorter if something stupid happens. It's not a question of "if" but of "when".
sure let her go, they have something they want to do that we are not aware of, but, if something happens to her, let the gov go fight (officials themselves) i'm not going anywhere,
don't know the context enough, conflict between china and taiwan? as i recently learned the second largest party in taiwan which lost by a few points is very pro china, so, its a matter of time before they themselves join china, so.. lets understand the context and weigh our options/decisions
Nancy P's motivation is always only money (stock options). She probably bought out-of-the-money LEAP calls in Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. And maybe a casket manufacturer.
I am not a Pelosi fan but I am all for a diplomatic trip to Taiwan so long as Taiwan understands the risks and wants her there. This is a typical move of a despotic government using bullying tactics when other actors aren’t going along with their narrative. CCP views Taiwan as part of China but they’ve been self governing themselves and a US ally for 70 years. Pelosi’s visit undermines that narrative and provides a nod of legitimacy to Taiwan’s independent government. If they surrender this visit as a result of China flexing, what is next? No accepting Taiwanese exports? I actually commend Nancy going. Hope she does.
Of course she should go....Next it will be The Solomon Islands or Fiji or any country China considers within its "jurisdiction" because it has built an artificial reef nearby.
If we fail to stand up and defend a country that has NO WISH to be part of the CCP and whose proud people loath the idea of losing their freedom to Beijing then we have to display force. Force is the only act the playground bully ever understands. Just look at Hong Kong.
Oliver
Your readers are very partisan and it's sad (I call out both leftist and right wing bs). Taiwan is a MAJOR non-NATO ally. Link: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2017-title22/html/USCODE-2017-title22-chap32-subchapII-partII-sec2321k.htm
Any elected official from the US has every right to visit Taiwan, China does not dictate what we can or cannot do. We live in a free world (thanks to the USA). Thanks to DEMOCRACY which is what Pelosi is emphasizing and signaling to China, you cannot take Taiwan by force, don't even think about it. The US is committed to Taiwan, it has been our foreign policy for a long time since every past Rep or Dem admin and President Bush was the one who had the BALLS to say outright the US will come to Taiwan's defense "whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself" in the event of attack by China.
"If China decides to use force, the United States must help Taiwan defend itself," then Gov. Bush said. "The Chinese can figure out what that means, but that's going to mean a resolute stand on my part."
President Bush was the first President to outright say the US will resolutely defend Taiwan and stand by Taiwan.
Apr 2021 Delegation of Republican Senators Lindsey Graham, Menendez, Burr, Rob Portman, Sasse and delegation of Senator Dodd, Deputy Secretary Armitage, & Deputy Secretary Steinberg visited Taiwan
Mar 2021 former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm visit Taiwan, Pompeyo also visited Taiwan
Stop with the partisan bullshit, what I see is Americans attacking Pelosi (like Trump is) and taking China's side saying she is "provoking" China. Listen to yourself and were you also quiet when all these Republican Senators visited Taiwan, did President Bush "provoke" China by saying the US will defend Taiwan whatever it took.
Tired of viewing everything in a bias partisan lens, it's sad and the main reason for America's slow decline. Taiwan is of important strategic interest to USA's national security, semiconductors are critical for economic prosperity and times of war, and to counter-balance China in that region, for Christ's sake some of you need to read up on international relations and US foreign policy to understand the nuances and importance of Taiwan to the US and democratic hegemony.
Pelosi's trip to Taiwan is irrelevant in the overall scheme, and is more of a distraction from the Deep State continuing plan inflict as much damage and pain on the US/Global economies/citizens, i.e., look here, not there, and, of course, set the stage for another stolen election. Regardless, nothing is going to work - NCSWIC...
She should do what she wants...but be prepared for any consequences. China is not our friend. It's exhausting pretending that is the case.
Isn't Taiwan critical to the USA's chip supply in the short term, thus critical to the US economy?
Yes and what’s going to happen to chip production when they are fighting China?
What's going to happen to access to chips, if China annexes Taiwan? Would China hold access to chips hostage knowing how dependent US is on production in Taiwan? Will the US allow that to happen without lifting a finger? Is Pelosi trip sending a message? Is Pelosi such a loose cannon as to be acting independently of Biden administration's larger strategy a la China? My guess is no. My guess is the behind the scenes maneuvering is much more complex and opaque than what is being observed of both Biden's and Xi's administrations.
Taiwan has been leaning toward reunification for years. As one post mentions, a huge faction in Taiwan wants to be part of China again. It’s a lot like America today. They are looking for someone to tell them what to do.
What’s the rush for Pelosi to go there anyway???
With the state of our country these days we need to mind our own business and fix a bunch of stuff around here.
We need to leave NATO, tell the UN, WHO and every other ‘global’ organization to stop asking us for help and stop trying to fix the world! Our country is debating whether men can get pregnant and we’re supposed to bring order to the world??? It’s laughable.
Ukraine should be a wake-up call to how well we can fix things these days. Our elected officials are poking every hornets nest in the world and ‘shits about to get real’.
Why now? Why her? She is no diplomat and she's out of her league. In essence, it makes no sense. The worst bit of foreign "diplomacy" ever. Would likely start a war.
I'm actually more surprised by the tone of Chinese warnings. They're so strong will they feel forced to respond if she goes? What will they do? Will they escort her to Japanese air space? Will they do something worse and start a war? Will they do nothing and look like fools? Btw, if you want to know why the U.S. has not won a war in 80 years just listen to retired Rear Admiral John Kirby, personification of the unqualified, useless bureaucrat devoid of actual military skills that permeates today's command structure.
Well, there were the turkey shoots in Kuwait and Grenada, lol.
I think we have enough problems to deal with right now and this trip is unnecessary.
In all SE Asian countries, particularly China, it's a very important cultural consideration that you "show them face".
In Nancy Pelosi's case, the Chinese should be careful what they wish for.
Even Zero Hedge managed to print FAKE NEWWS. I'm surprised.
No, Taiwan is not even a nation, let alone an "independent nation". Even the government of Taiwan recognises that the island is legally a part of the People's Republic of China. Their only disagreement is which government is the legitimate government of the WHOLE of China, Beijing or Taipei? Americans need to stop making up silly fairy stories. Or get an education.
The reason for this sabre-rattling is simple - the USA is crumbling in front of the world's eyes. The American Century has suddenly ended - it didn't even make 80 years. USA RIP.
Under this "leadership" everything America touches turns to crap. The American people are being hammered by a kleptocratic political class and don't have the spine to deal with them.
So what's the answer? How does America's intellectual leadership handle the problem? Toga party.
Could it be what has the appearance of Chaos, is actually a premeditated act?
There were reports of a Late Fall (November?) Invasion being planned by China.
Did the US.Gov actually have more verification of such a plan?
Send in Pelosi and one lone plane. No other big names. More than calling China's
Bluff, attempt to Catch China On The Wrong Foot. They have "Threatened Invasion Now!",
but are not prepared in a manner similar to what they want to carry out in November.
Is this an attempt to Bungle Their Strategy?
Pelosi took the dare, Quite Possibly, every person on that Plane had volunteered, or not
refused on a flight that could turn Suicidal.
ALSO GOOGLE Pelosi and Chinese November Invasion. ???? Zero would come up on
my Algo Controlled Google. November Invasion? YES, Pelosi? YES, But not the two
items together. I found that interesting.
I don't think the United States should meddle in other countries' domestic affairs unless it involves a global risk.
Part 1: Just a few points: Taiwan/Republic of China is de-facto independent, except in name only. It is self governing in all respects. But due to historical and realpolitik reasons it should not and cannot declare independence. In practicality it achieves almost nothing that it doesn't already have. In fact, both the CCP and the Kuomintang (previous Nationalist Party) in Taiwan realize this, with both claiming to be the legitimate rulers of "one China" , which is where the "One China" policy came from. This is fine, it allows for each side to go and govern its own way and trade and interact with each other. Many people have relatives and business and cultural connections on both sides.
Who do you think is Taiwan's biggest trading partner? No, it's not the US , or any other south East Asian country- it's Mainland China (the PRC) , and the bilateral trade is worth about 20-30% of Taiwan's GDP! And Taiwan has a US$100 Million SURPLUS in trade with China! As an example, regarding the nonsense about semiconductor chip supply, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has some factories in Mainland China and counted the PRC as one of its main customers and suppliers, until US sanctions put an end to that. So leave both the PRC and Taiwan to sort out its own historical problems and both will prosper. But that is precisely what some US politicians don't want. They will use the DPP
(Taiwan's current Pro-independence governing party) to provoke China , not because they really care about Taiwan, but simply as a means to hurt the PRC, even if it means Taiwan is destroyed either economically or in actuality . And it has always been the Western Media and/or politicians who have been trumpeting that a communist invasion has been imminent - all the better to sell billions of dollars of military arms. The PRC's line is "peaceful reunification" which may be a pipe dream, and it reserves the right to use force if independence is declared, but pragmatically knows that an actual invasion is just not realistic. But an economic and literal blockade is certainly possible - but perhaps that is what the US is actually pushing for- anything to provoke the PRC into making a rash move that would cripple China and make it an international pariah - even at the cost of hurting everyone else -the real people of America, China and Taiwan who will suffer just as much or even more- just for the sake of geopolitical games.
Why the Taiwan visit now? Some have suggested it could Mrs Pelosi's swan song before her position (Speaker of the House of Representatives) switches from Democracts to Republicans.
News this week is that Mr Pelosi's traffic accident on May 28 was way more than a fender bender. The Speaker went to Taiwan on Tuesday and court appreance for Mr Pelosi is Wednesday. Coincidence? Or is she trying to overshadow her husband's court appearance?
- both vehicles totaled
- Pauly Pelosi reported to have failed sobriety tests and 0.82 alcohol level plus "a drug" when tested over 2 hours later
- when asked for DL he showed his donor card (not organ donor card, it was his CHP donor card)
- other person injured
- today judge has been replaced, one day before court tomorrow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vS-7mU3SRKo
Whatever Pelosi's reasons for doing this, the only thing we know for certain is she is doing this to benefit herself and perhaps some of her scumbag cohorts. Nothing she does is for the sole purpose of benefiting her country or future generations of Americans. But she is just another DC psychopath doing what psychopaths do, so to expect otherwise would be delusional.
She should not have gone to Taiwan but once China threatened us and said she couldn't, there was no choice but to send her.
I dont know why she felt the need to go except as a grand finale before (in case?) the gavel is stripped from her hand following the next (fair we hope) election…. But now that Biden and the Pentagon advised her not to go, and China has screamed like a stuck pig, she needs to go otherwise China detects weakness, Taiwan falls faster, and our chip off-shoring bites us in the ass big time.. like societal collapse…. So as much as i have a huge distaste for the San Francisco treat, and given the current bumbling situation the US is now in, I am NOW rooting for her trip to hold off the inevitable…. The calvary may be coming, but I fear they wont make it in time or at all.
China is a paper tiger. It's military is closer to Russia in capablility than the United States. The most complex and hard operation is projecting power across geography, especially trying to invade an island. It is the only reason the United States is still a world power....we can project power almost anywhere in the world. There is no comparable state that can do this right now. It is doubtful China can do it.
IMO, Biden, thru Kirby, is opening the door to the CCP invading Taiwan. First step, a full blockade to sea ports to be followed shortly by air traffic. Run them out of energy then move in.
Losing TWN to China would be a disaster for global commerce. Semis are key.
Pelosi should go and is there now. It demonstrates that the corrupt Biden admin is not in full control of US foreign policy and that there well could be an a strong answer from the US.
I don't say this arguing, but there are so many layers of Corruption and Blackmail now, that it is nearly impossible to tell who is doing what to who. - - -
(If I was Xi, and my top Spymaster told me that he had nothing to Blackmail Hunter and Daddy with, I would have him executed, organs donated, and what remained, dumped in an unmarked grave.)
It is like sending someone's slightly incoherent grandma off to the local bar to break up a brawl... not a good idea.
"This Global Times report is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT because of a few pearls buried in the final copy. It badly needs a major rewrite.
In its absence, here they are - the 3 major takeaways that may spell out the full Chinese reaction, further on down the road, to the Witch’s narcissistic stunt.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1271966.shtml
WHAT THE PLA MAY DO:
Fu Qianshao, Chinese military aviation expert:
"If Pelosi's aircraft enters our exercise area, we would have to take measures to eject, intercept, escort, and send a radio warning… If Pelosi gets her way, our warplanes may fire shells diagonally ahead of Pelosi's plane as a further warning.”
That’s all plausible. It would not come down to shooting down Witch Airlines - and its American protecting fighter jets.
WHO’S RESPONSIBLE
"China will see it as a provocative action permitted by the Biden administration rather than a personal decision made by Pelosi.”
That’s EXACTLY what Xi told Crash Test Dummy’s earpiece last week. And that’s the ultimate red line. Xi will be reaching THE EXACT SAME CONCLUSION reached by Putin earlier this year: the Empire of Lies is non-agreement capable, and there’s no point in expecting them to respect diplomacy and/or rule of law in international relations.
WHAT’S NEXT
A consensus among Chinese analysts that mirrors the consensus at the very top:
“The Russia-Ukraine crisis has just let the world see the consequence of pushing a major power into a corner, said analysts. China will steadily speed up its process of reunification and declare the end of US domination of the world order.”
It’s now Russia-China all out, in deep synch. Only an irretrievably rotten Empire of Dummies would bring this outcome upon itself."
Pepe Escobar
Why continue to follow the "wisdom" of our foreign policy experts is beyond me. The last success they had was in 1945 and that wasn't all that great. America is a gasping dying empire that doesn't realize that it's almost finished. The US could no more help defend Taiwan that it can Ukraine. We risk nuclear war to line the pockets of the MIC. And don't tell me that Biden couldn't have stopped this visit. This is the most reckless, incompetent administration ever. And the GOP is even worse on China.
China taking Taiwan is analogous to USA taking Canada (if backed by China).
China wants a soft overrun like they did with Hong Kong.
This is MSM giving everyone a reason to fear - hint...
Why would Biden antagonize one of his main sources of income? Let the conspiracy theories begin.
So, if you believe MSM, Pelosi has landed in Taiwan. That has undoubtedly set off the chain of actions waiting to happen in China. My bet is economic against us and future plans for invasion for Taiwan. Both of which will not benefit anyone but China. We'll see soon enough!
Apart from what has already been pointed out below, there are additional considerations that nobody has seemed to include (or maybe I missed it).
For example, China has been rather successful with *existing* attacks on our economy via the corona hoax. By our inexplicably following their "example" of mitigation strategies and the plain fact that it is the "Wuhan Virus" that alone has resulted in incalculable damage to our economy and our very way of life.
Furthermore, their continued obsession with full-on "hard" lockdowns just so happens to coincidentally exacerbate our supply chain issues. Chip shortages and many other areas of supply have become critical.
While I don't try to understand how, I've heard numerous times how China owns our monetized national debt.
That don't need to go "kinetic" against us to cause even further substantial damage to our country. Lastly, if they attack Taiwan and we back them, we can likely count on Russia helping them with whatever weapons technologies that have worked very well for them against our "assistance" there in Ukraine.
The whole thing give us no benefit and is yet another self-destructive adventure by the idiot Democrats and the Biden administration -- let's not pretend that he's not tacitly allowing it.
How would one properly describe the Chinese communists?
Intelligent, patient, shrewd - what? Amoral savages. Yes, savages. They loosed COVID knowingly on the world. They are stone hearted killers. Ask the Chinese mothers whose baby girls have been murdered since Mao came to power. Ask the Uighers who this regime is.
Playing further weakness to them will embolden them further, maybe much further. If it comes to a shooting match they will be encroaching not only on Taiwan but closely adjacent Japanese islands. Japan WILL shoot back. They know their neighbors better than we. Then what does the US do??? Nothing?
Better to push back now and cow the shrewd savages before they cross the next line.
Yes, strange thing for Nancy to do??? Why?
1. Flex muscles for the mid-terms to show democrats are tough on China?
2. Nancy along with hubbie Paul are huge tech and especially Silicone Valley supporters and beneficiaries?$$$ A connection with computer chips we need and Silicone Valley needs to keep a handle on? Especially with the strong pro Chinese parties gaining strength and momentum these days? A connection here?
3. Maybe, she is trying to take a hard stand against China to counter what she believes is too much weakness and favoritism from Uncle Joe? Joe has made millions thru his boy Hunter and brother Jim over there? They are very tied in with the defense and intelligence industries? Joe told her not to go?; Sec Def Austin said don't go? Uncle Joe even came out yesterday thru Kirby stating we don't support Taiwan? Strange, maybe trying to help cover for Nancy going over there? Joe is a super globalist and China supporter, again, he's made tons of money over there with his elitist friends and cohorts? Something going on personally between Uncle Joe and Nancy?
We have to remember this is politics. It will not probably be rational, logical, ethical or principled. In fact, it most likely will be the opposite. In politics, it's fear, greed, status, power and money. The one thing that is MAYBE gained here, is that it shows as always, we are unpredictable, and hard to pin down, which is difficult from your opponent's viewpoint? As usual, our opponents are asking? what the hell are they doing now! lol (My answer - hell if we know, but we're making money baby!) lol
The reason she's going is because that's what wealthy insiders do when they have a successful trade. They take a trip oversees to celebrate. I hope she visits Taiwan and never comes back.
She shouldn't even hold public office, although that "standard" is so watered down now - can you imagine Alex Hamilton and Tom Jefferson trying to have a conversation with her?
Would you go on a trip in defiance of the CCP, poking a nasty hornet's nest, knowing that Biden is the Commander in Chief of the US Military? I certainly wouldn't. Going there shows a confidence in Biden that I do not share.
I heard she was scheduled for a swimsuit photo session at the National Palace Museum. Considering the museum has items spanning 8,000 years she will look sort of young there.
I’m the last fan of Pelosi but she is Speaker of the House and there is more nuance here. We officially have ‘unofficial’ good relations with Taiwan. Take the individual out of the office….If the sitting US Speaker of the House wishes to make a visit to a country the US has unofficial diplomatic relations with in the historical context of Taiwan, then that’s ok. The Chinese know Speaker Pelosi is hated by half of the US and are exploiting that fact to the maximum amount in order to further drive the divide in US politics and in the US citizenry. To allow China to establish what is and isn’t ok in this very nuanced context is a submission by the US and not appropriate. The thunder over this trip is the Chinese government testing both the US and the Taiwanese government. I don’t think they believe they can get it to change, but they want to know if they can. Seizing Taiwan is not a thing they do on a late scheduled trip by a senior American leader. They have built up forces opposite Taiwan to build pressure and to be perceived as serious. But an invasion of Taiwan is serious business and no where near a given success story. Could there be some type of other response to the visit (cyber attacks, strongly worded messages, increased harassment of the Taiwanese military, political/economic difficulties for Taiwanese businesses, etc). Absolutely. That said, it is my opinion that the long term strategy is not to outright invade Taiwan, but to create conditions in the South China Sea to where they will be invited, at least in part. They are playing a longer game….this is most probably a move of assessment. For a timeline of when they may invade…give it a few years for the corrosive effect of internal US systemic political corrosion from events like this to have taken a much deeper hold. Couple that to a few more years of the crisis in US Military Recruiting (it’s exceptionally bad, historically bad for the all volunteer force, bad as in current trends see gross reductions in manpower available at the cutting edge in 3 years) and we look at a post 2026 timeframe for a more probable period with respect to a military invasion across the straight.
China will not invade Taiwan over this visit (they will eventually do it on their own schedule), but they may shoot down her plane to cause chaos in the US. Remember, she is taking 5 Dem congressmen with her. If the plane is shot down, the House flips (R) by 1 vote as long as Cheney and Kinsinger vote (R), which is doubtful. The House could be without a speaker for months. They know that Biden will not go to war with them, and if he tried, the USA would lose badly.
I think the probability of the Chinese Government outright assassinating (or capturing, or forcing down) 6 US Congressman including the Speaker of the House is exceptionally low. But, “that’s like, my opinion man”.