Walking Away

I speak to Adam Taggart for an hour about evolving beyond trading and how our markets are unrecognizable at this point.

In a recent conversation with Adam Taggart on Thoughtful Money, I discussed something that has been years in the making: my decision to step away from active trading and refocus on what I believe is my real edge: analyzing markets, identifying themes, and communicating ideas to you guys…the subscribers I am eternally grateful to have reading me on a regular basis.

For people who have followed my work over the years, this may sound counterintuitive. After all, I’ve spent decades immersed in markets, uncovering frauds doing research on the short side for a decade, publishing contrarian research, and obsessing over macroeconomic trends viewed through an Austrian lens.

But, as I wrote in my recent piece talking about why I stopped active trading, one of the hardest lessons markets have taught me is that being right and making money are often two entirely different things.

As I told Adam:

“Objective truth and market outcomes are two completely different things. You can be fundamentally correct and still lose money.”

That realization ultimately led me to a difficult but liberating conclusion: I am far better at generating ideas (did I mention the blog’s 26 Stocks I’m Watching For 2026 are beating the S&P 500 by more than 10% this year?) than I am at actively trading them.

About a year ago, I tried with limited success to just stop trading options. More recently, I’ve begun backing away from trading entirely. Not because I suddenly lost confidence in my analysis, but because I finally became honest with myself about my execution. The more I traded, the worse I performed.

You Can Never Win, You Can Never Be Right

I could identify the trend correctly and still botch the timing. I could have the right thesis and sell too early. I could spot a long-term opportunity and sabotage it through overtrading. As I said during the interview:

“So many times I’ve had the right idea and the wrong execution. At some point that simply becomes exhausting.”

For me, this became an exercise in trying to drop my ego. Having spent years working on the short side, uncovering frauds and publishing research that contributed to investigations, delistings, and indictments, it’s easy to develop an ego around being “right.”

But then, markets don’t reward correctness. They reward execution. And sometimes the smartest thing you can do is admit that your strengths lie elsewhere.

Today, I derive far more satisfaction from researching ideas, understanding macro trends, and helping readers think through complex situations than I do from trying to squeeze another trade out of the market.

And part of what pushed me toward this decision is the realization that modern markets increasingly resemble something very different from investing. During the interview, I described today’s market as a “digital casino on cocaine” and in my recent novella, I talked about how online sports gambling and prediction markets are outright frightening to me.

Between zero-day options, prediction markets, sports betting, crypto leverage, and 24/7 trading, we’ve created an ecosystem where every event has become a wager. Every opinion has become a market. Every moment feels like it requires action. The result is a culture of perpetual stimulation and constant dopamine chasing.

For years I fell into this same trap. Decades even. Trading options. Checking screens constantly. Watching positions every minute. Convincing myself that activity equaled productivity. It doesn’t. In fact, one of the most valuable lessons I’ve learned is the exact opposite. As I told Adam:

“Be right and sit tight.”

If I could go back and tattoo one lesson onto my younger self, it might be that one.

The accessibility of modern markets tricks people into believing they must always be doing something. In reality, some of the greatest returns come from doing nothing after you’ve already done the hard work of being right.

The broader lesson extends far beyond markets. One of the themes Adam and I discussed was the disappearance of stillness. Today, silence feels uncomfortable and patience feels obsolete. People struggle to sit without checking their phones. Children grow up without ever being bored. Investors receive thousands of notifications designed to provoke action. The result is a society that increasingly confuses stimulation with fulfillment.

Over the last couple of years, I’ve tried to move in the opposite direction: less screen time, less trading. More reading. More thinking. More time spent disconnected.

What I’ve discovered is that clarity often emerges when you stop forcing it. The best ideas rarely arrive while staring at a blinking ticker. They arrive when you create enough mental space for them to surface.

Stepping back from trading has also changed how I think about markets themselves.

One of the core ideas I discussed on Thoughtful Money is what I call the “Permanent Distortion Theory.”

The Permanent Distortion Theory

The basic premise is simple: many of the historical relationships investors relied on throughout the twentieth century may no longer function the way they once did. For decades, investors could rely on valuation metrics, liquidity conditions, and economic cycles behaving within relatively predictable boundaries.

Today, we’re operating in a fundamentally different environment. Passive investing has become a dominant force. Options activity can mechanically drive stock prices. Central banks have repeatedly intervened to suppress volatility and support asset prices. Liquidity enters markets differently than it did in previous generations.

As I told Adam, looking at historical averages from 1920 through 2000 and assuming they still apply may be a mistake. The game itself has changed.

That’s why we’ve witnessed phenomena that would have seemed absurd decades ago—record highs occurring alongside deteriorating market breadth, extreme valuations persisting far longer than many thought possible, and speculative behavior becoming normalized.

Another uncomfortable conclusion I’ve reached is that traditional fundamental investing has become dramatically more difficult. That doesn’t mean fundamentals are irrelevant. It means they often aren’t sufficient.

You can identify a company trading at nine times earnings. You can spot fraud. You can find businesses generating enormous cash flow. But if liquidity isn’t flowing toward those names, or if the market’s attention is elsewhere, being correct may not matter for a very long time.

That’s why many active managers have struggled over the last decade. The challenge isn’t simply finding value. The challenge is navigating a market increasingly driven by passive flows, momentum, liquidity, and positioning.

Despite my concerns, I remain optimistic about finding opportunities, which I talk to Adam about in this interview. But if there was really one message I wanted people to take away from this conversation, it wasn’t a stock tip. It was a reminder that markets are important, but they are not life.

The older I get, the more convinced I become that the things that matter most are remarkably simple: good health, meaningful relationships, purposeful work, and peace of mind.

The irony is that many people enter markets hoping to improve their lives, only to end up trapped in a cycle of anxiety, overstimulation, and endless reaction. I’ve spent enough years in that cycle to recognize it when I see it. Today, my goal is different.

Think clearly. Write honestly. Find good ideas.

And remember that sometimes the most profitable decision you can make is the decision not to act at all.

You can watch my full interview with Adam here:

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.