I never subscribed to your Substack for specific stock trading advice. I like your interviews and bluntly pointing out the craziness of the current market and today's world in general. A younger Ray Dalio with some tattoos....
You came to the conclusion that I came to in late 2007, when the markets seemed more particularly lacking of liquidity. I began to leave the market before the total insanity of 2008, when interest rates began to race to zero, and I suddenly knew that there were (perhaps for decades, which it has turned out to me), there were no longer any fully-inflation adjusted investment hurdle rates. I shifted into real estate rehab as a hard money lender and began to trade futures, which I still do to this day. MMT and QE bastardized all investment strategies after that point, and the acceleration of lowered interest rates from the mid-1990s forward were suddenly gave equities a fatal dose of crack cocaine after 2010 when QE was introduced. I gave a private economic presentation to a local group with a friend of mine, and at the time we were laughed out of the building. I wonder how many are laughing now?. I understand how Gen Z'ers feel, but I do not agree with the aggression they have for other generations. They are not the problem.. Their government and their ignorance of economics IS. These people were never taught basic economics, and they are led by those who profit from the complete ignorance in economics of the people they lead. I started two series of writings for my Substack, but since only about 20 people read the initial installments. I said, why bother? We can fix any and all of these problems, albeit after having suffered the pain of repairing our currency and the banking system, but no one wants to do the right thing. All our leaders want to do is to profit from these bubbles while leaving our economy and our people in ruin. End of rant.
QTR — at least give us the story behind the trade that made you want to chuck your laptop out the window and declare, “I’m done trading.”
You’re right that nonstop active trading usually isn’t the solution. But I’m not sure quitting 100% is the answer either. Sometimes it’s just variance, frustration, and a bad stretch. We’ve all been there.
Something tells me you’ll be back clicking the “buy” button soon enough.
Chris, great interview with Adam. You both provide terrific content. In the immortal words of Det. Harry Callahan, “A man’s got to know his limitations.” Keep up the good work.
Boy, you nailed me, with the exception of never being right enough that sitting tight would have worked… :). I subscribe for the pithy commentary and views that force me to question my own. Carry on…
I agree. My intuition is that with frequent trading timing is a lot more important and you're competing against algorithms and probably AI now. I'm very patient (so far) and also opportunistic. I have several areas I'm interested in and I'm monitor. I wish I had some set of criteria that I just run things through and get a yes or no. But for me it's a bit of an art. And so far I average less than one purchase a year. And I don't buy anything I wouldn't hold for at least 5 years. So once that happens I can chill and see how it plays out. Because I also don't want my life to become just investing.
The title of this article worries me.... like maybe things are gonna change if you don't have as much skin in the game . I read what you write, what you read and what your readers read ! I just subscribed in late 2025 and have found your articles fascinating and they usually lead me down interesting rabbit holes as well . Also , I have had my best market profits BY FAR since I started reading QTR . Just as important , I have REALLY taken it to heart about "no crying in the casino" and how FOMO was affecting me . I am almost all in cash right now but I hope your writing continues to be important to you because it has become very important to me .
“The Raven knows the secrets of the night, whispering truths to those who dare to listen.”
I'll bet that if the market had a 75% drop you would be jumping back in with both hands. You are in capital preservation mode. I get it. This is a dangerous market right now. Actually has been for years. It could crash at any time, but the forces pushing it up are so vast you can't go short or predict timing.
Eventually this era will come to an end. The 40 year trend of declining interest rates came to an end in 2022, and it clearly ain't coming back. When does the market have a fundamental change as well?
I tried all timeframes and volume intra-day trading gave me, by far, the poorest results. I realized, as my time frames got tighter, usable T/A shrank in dramatic proportion to my results. Almost seemed like I was analyzing Tree Bark from a Tree that could have been falling. Gave it up in less than 2 months. Swing Trading is by far by sweet spot and allows me to use all the Charting tools at my disposal. If you said I couldn't use charts to trade, I would hang it up, right then and there. Charts imprint the entire story of a stock, and, more importantly, the Patterns within that story provide profitable probabilities to future direction and price.
QTR. Thoughtful Money. Commodity Cilture. And anything Matthew Piepenburg has to say. Thats my fill.
Couldn't agree more. Liquidity markets now until the inevitable wealth destruction that has to take place at this point. Its the other side of this massive trade the Fed has us all in.
I never subscribed to your Substack for specific stock trading advice. I like your interviews and bluntly pointing out the craziness of the current market and today's world in general. A younger Ray Dalio with some tattoos....
You came to the conclusion that I came to in late 2007, when the markets seemed more particularly lacking of liquidity. I began to leave the market before the total insanity of 2008, when interest rates began to race to zero, and I suddenly knew that there were (perhaps for decades, which it has turned out to me), there were no longer any fully-inflation adjusted investment hurdle rates. I shifted into real estate rehab as a hard money lender and began to trade futures, which I still do to this day. MMT and QE bastardized all investment strategies after that point, and the acceleration of lowered interest rates from the mid-1990s forward were suddenly gave equities a fatal dose of crack cocaine after 2010 when QE was introduced. I gave a private economic presentation to a local group with a friend of mine, and at the time we were laughed out of the building. I wonder how many are laughing now?. I understand how Gen Z'ers feel, but I do not agree with the aggression they have for other generations. They are not the problem.. Their government and their ignorance of economics IS. These people were never taught basic economics, and they are led by those who profit from the complete ignorance in economics of the people they lead. I started two series of writings for my Substack, but since only about 20 people read the initial installments. I said, why bother? We can fix any and all of these problems, albeit after having suffered the pain of repairing our currency and the banking system, but no one wants to do the right thing. All our leaders want to do is to profit from these bubbles while leaving our economy and our people in ruin. End of rant.
Great interview with Adam. What you are doing now is right for me. I hope you will find it is right for you.
QTR — at least give us the story behind the trade that made you want to chuck your laptop out the window and declare, “I’m done trading.”
You’re right that nonstop active trading usually isn’t the solution. But I’m not sure quitting 100% is the answer either. Sometimes it’s just variance, frustration, and a bad stretch. We’ve all been there.
Something tells me you’ll be back clicking the “buy” button soon enough.
Chris, great interview with Adam. You both provide terrific content. In the immortal words of Det. Harry Callahan, “A man’s got to know his limitations.” Keep up the good work.
Walking away from something you want to do, that's destructive, is one of the hardest and healthiest things a person can do. Knuckles!
Boy, you nailed me, with the exception of never being right enough that sitting tight would have worked… :). I subscribe for the pithy commentary and views that force me to question my own. Carry on…
I agree. My intuition is that with frequent trading timing is a lot more important and you're competing against algorithms and probably AI now. I'm very patient (so far) and also opportunistic. I have several areas I'm interested in and I'm monitor. I wish I had some set of criteria that I just run things through and get a yes or no. But for me it's a bit of an art. And so far I average less than one purchase a year. And I don't buy anything I wouldn't hold for at least 5 years. So once that happens I can chill and see how it plays out. Because I also don't want my life to become just investing.
I'll take the 7 and eleven.......put $20 on snake eyes and cover the numbers and come line.....
A very dry martini and a couple of lines on the side.... this IS a Casino...right??
Circus Circus.
"The more I traded, the worse I performed."
Bingo! I find my trades are getting more profitable as my patience has increased and trades decreased.
The title of this article worries me.... like maybe things are gonna change if you don't have as much skin in the game . I read what you write, what you read and what your readers read ! I just subscribed in late 2025 and have found your articles fascinating and they usually lead me down interesting rabbit holes as well . Also , I have had my best market profits BY FAR since I started reading QTR . Just as important , I have REALLY taken it to heart about "no crying in the casino" and how FOMO was affecting me . I am almost all in cash right now but I hope your writing continues to be important to you because it has become very important to me .
“The Raven knows the secrets of the night, whispering truths to those who dare to listen.”
I'll bet that if the market had a 75% drop you would be jumping back in with both hands. You are in capital preservation mode. I get it. This is a dangerous market right now. Actually has been for years. It could crash at any time, but the forces pushing it up are so vast you can't go short or predict timing.
Eventually this era will come to an end. The 40 year trend of declining interest rates came to an end in 2022, and it clearly ain't coming back. When does the market have a fundamental change as well?
Regarding trading frequency --
I tried all timeframes and volume intra-day trading gave me, by far, the poorest results. I realized, as my time frames got tighter, usable T/A shrank in dramatic proportion to my results. Almost seemed like I was analyzing Tree Bark from a Tree that could have been falling. Gave it up in less than 2 months. Swing Trading is by far by sweet spot and allows me to use all the Charting tools at my disposal. If you said I couldn't use charts to trade, I would hang it up, right then and there. Charts imprint the entire story of a stock, and, more importantly, the Patterns within that story provide profitable probabilities to future direction and price.
So you’re 100% in on the usd?
QTR. Thoughtful Money. Commodity Cilture. And anything Matthew Piepenburg has to say. Thats my fill.
Couldn't agree more. Liquidity markets now until the inevitable wealth destruction that has to take place at this point. Its the other side of this massive trade the Fed has us all in.