As I wrote on Twitter moments ago, I think there’s an actual chance the Fed attempts to blunt the blow of a terrible GDP print by offering up dovish “data dependent” language tomorrow.
If that happens, expect a massive rip higher in all indices, and likely in the precious metals, too. If the Fed holds its ground and then we hit a terrible GDP print Thursday, hold on to your nuts because we’re heading in the other direction fast.
All you bulls are crazy, thinking the fed will back off and QE is coming back. Powell is a republican (appointed by Bush, Chairman under Trump) and doesn't care if he crashes the economy for the next two years. Hes just getting warmed up.
Jul 27, 2022·edited Jul 27, 2022Liked by Quoth the Raven
From The Fed? Obfuscation and Wishy-Washy Mumbo-Jumbo that says absolutely nothing of any import or substance other than a 50 bp Hike. In other words: Gaslighting.
GDP Thursday? Obfuscation and Wishy-Washy Mumbo-Jumbo that says nothing of any import or substance as to how we're NOT in a Recession...... In other words: Gaslighting.
The numbers they throw about regarding the Inflation Rate and GDP are so massaged that they make no sense whatsoever.
Whatever black rock CEO tells hem to do. Enough word salad on the gdp that most won’t have any idea what they are really saying. Similar to their new recession definition, sounded an awful lot like the VP standard word salad shit.
The Fed cannot declare themselves “data dependent”. It will be a huge mistake in the fight against inflation, the main source of disruption right now. I think that while a 75 bps hike is the most likely scenario, 100 bps is not out of the question. Any surprise has to be a hawkish surprise, we are in this place for being dovish, very unlikely they will err for the dovish side. You guys have to understand that the Fed is trying to kill the bubbles, the stock market is one of them, so forget about any bullish outcome. It is not possible. Powell needs to create a recession to save his legacy, the stock market will recover later.
Jul 27, 2022·edited Jul 27, 2022Liked by Quoth the Raven
After the RRC and MTDR earnings, if the Fed was smart they would buy oil and gas stocks. Unfortunately the Fed and their intermediaries like Fink at Black Rock will continue to short oil and nat gas to give the country the illusion that inflation has been eradicated. Capital flows to profitability unless there's manipulation. Whatever the Fed does and says will be in the rearview mirror by Friday.
They stick with .75. GDP comes in at + .5. They will manipulate the data to eke out something just this side of zero giving the WH another 90 days of cover on having to admit recession. There is an election in about 100 days. They can’t have recession on the tongues of their opponents for 100 days.
Once that is addressed they begin the execution of the next crisis (Monkey, Ebola, Marburg take your pick) which of course will feature all of the same stuff as the last crisis.
This is what I am predicting from the fed…..”what we’ve noticed is the metrics are noticeably metric dependent and that dependence determines the determination for us to guide our guidance on the temporary long term policies, policy. Furthermore, the micro of the macro is an indication that indicates thoughtful thought of drivers that drive the economics of the economy. Therefore, our guidance is to guide policy determined from the metrics indicated in the determination."
75 BPS - Forward guidance abandoned for data which lets em
Be more flexible.
GDP surprises to the upside but still negative 1 percent real.
Summer still has reasons for people to spend and Wasn’t visa still reporting high spending? I suppose that was up to the end of May though.I still see these retail inventory build ups as partially planned for by to secure supply
It’s only July…they have time to preen as Hawkish, raise rates a bit, but as the election draws closer, will kick back into political mode, “pivot” by lowering rates, and declare the economy saved! The Fed is captured by this administration.
75bps, "employment remains strong," "seeing signs of peaking," "paying close attention the data on rates," -1.9% GDP, AND ever so slight adjustment to asset QT roll-off schedule to take advantage of the market handling an orderly deleveraging...
75bps tomorrow, they will not want to surprise the markets that are pricing that in. Press conference will allude to still strong economy based on still low Unemployment Rate and high JOLTS data.
GDP -1.5%, I don't think the bad stuff hits until Q3.
The think to really watch is what they say at Jackson Hole before the September meeting. that is when they can adjust their stance if they decide that the economy is not that strong after all
with an olive branch of future data dependent easing to make sure that the dems still have a shot in november.
dont forget that this .75% raise takes us to 2.5% which might allow for an emergency “temporary” 0.25% cut to goose the stock market before the primaries!
I think the Fed works hand-in-hand with the WHO and the WEF to destroy as much as possible of the Western economies: 1% rate hike and full speed ahead towards the next iceberg!
I will say a hike of 75 bps, and a totally massaged and fraudulent -0.8 for GDP. They change the definition of everything so frequently that none of it can be trusted, so why not fudge the GDP lower to make the rubes who believe them feel better?
+75bps and -1.9GDP. Watch for some dovish comments from Powell meaning equities rally into the close. The market seems to have priced in negative outcomes already given today's bounce off what were slight misses from Microsoft and Google.
.75 basis points and Powell will spew BS about the strong economy and employment numbers. GDP will be down again 1.5%. Markets will swill his glowing outlook and the dow is up 500
My thought is he’ll go 100 basis points and talk tough.
He'll defer to the Fed’s mandate of a strong employment AND a strong currency. Because we already have super strong employment and inflation is out of control, he'll have to act as his legacy depends on it.
100 basis points is not near enough to fix inflation but it's enough to look like he's trying.
With the continued high inflation, I think they go 100+ bps, and indicate they expect the next raise to be in the 25 to 50 bps range. Additionally, they will specifically say that managing inflation (return to 2%)remains their top priority. They will also vote to continue to reduce their holdings as they continue QT(may be slightly more aggressive here). Esther George will vote at least 25% below whatever the rest of the committee votes and be the single holdout.
FED will stick with their 0.75 rise, the earliest for any pivot or change in language might come at Jackson Hole, especially if we hear about Japan negotiating with Russia for oil for yen. Market will see a rise of less than 0.75 in September, after pivot, as bullish, market will rise going into mid-terms. With the BEA under the thumb of Secretary Raimondo, would not be surprised to see a +0.2 in GDP to keep the "R" word out of news because the economy is great, and Biden single handily saving the American family $35/month!
-0.4% on GDP and agree that Fed could start to flinch. Market also more likely to search for this now (growth concerns) than a few months ago (inflation concerns) IMHO.
75bp hike, -0.9 GDP
FED raise 100bps, GDP = -2.4
All you bulls are crazy, thinking the fed will back off and QE is coming back. Powell is a republican (appointed by Bush, Chairman under Trump) and doesn't care if he crashes the economy for the next two years. Hes just getting warmed up.
From The Fed? Obfuscation and Wishy-Washy Mumbo-Jumbo that says absolutely nothing of any import or substance other than a 50 bp Hike. In other words: Gaslighting.
GDP Thursday? Obfuscation and Wishy-Washy Mumbo-Jumbo that says nothing of any import or substance as to how we're NOT in a Recession...... In other words: Gaslighting.
The numbers they throw about regarding the Inflation Rate and GDP are so massaged that they make no sense whatsoever.
75 bps and a bunch of bs, then back track quickly when they decide what makes a recession!!
Whatever black rock CEO tells hem to do. Enough word salad on the gdp that most won’t have any idea what they are really saying. Similar to their new recession definition, sounded an awful lot like the VP standard word salad shit.
The Fed cannot declare themselves “data dependent”. It will be a huge mistake in the fight against inflation, the main source of disruption right now. I think that while a 75 bps hike is the most likely scenario, 100 bps is not out of the question. Any surprise has to be a hawkish surprise, we are in this place for being dovish, very unlikely they will err for the dovish side. You guys have to understand that the Fed is trying to kill the bubbles, the stock market is one of them, so forget about any bullish outcome. It is not possible. Powell needs to create a recession to save his legacy, the stock market will recover later.
After the RRC and MTDR earnings, if the Fed was smart they would buy oil and gas stocks. Unfortunately the Fed and their intermediaries like Fink at Black Rock will continue to short oil and nat gas to give the country the illusion that inflation has been eradicated. Capital flows to profitability unless there's manipulation. Whatever the Fed does and says will be in the rearview mirror by Friday.
I am predicting the same...more BS!!! My answer should be generic enough to cover either possibility. Looking forward to my new subscription. :-)
+75bps, -2.1% GDP.
They stick with .75. GDP comes in at + .5. They will manipulate the data to eke out something just this side of zero giving the WH another 90 days of cover on having to admit recession. There is an election in about 100 days. They can’t have recession on the tongues of their opponents for 100 days.
Once that is addressed they begin the execution of the next crisis (Monkey, Ebola, Marburg take your pick) which of course will feature all of the same stuff as the last crisis.
It’s all enterprise fraud. Do not comply.
50 bps, “data dependent”, GDP -2, “not a recession”
raise 75bp. gdp -2.5
raise 75 bps. gdp -2.1
FED raise 0.75%, GDP minus 1.87
Raise by 50bps and indicate further adjustments will be more data dependent as we see this peaking shortly. GDP -1.42.
This is what I am predicting from the fed…..”what we’ve noticed is the metrics are noticeably metric dependent and that dependence determines the determination for us to guide our guidance on the temporary long term policies, policy. Furthermore, the micro of the macro is an indication that indicates thoughtful thought of drivers that drive the economics of the economy. Therefore, our guidance is to guide policy determined from the metrics indicated in the determination."
75 BPS - Forward guidance abandoned for data which lets em
Be more flexible.
GDP surprises to the upside but still negative 1 percent real.
Summer still has reasons for people to spend and Wasn’t visa still reporting high spending? I suppose that was up to the end of May though.I still see these retail inventory build ups as partially planned for by to secure supply
Fed raises 75 bps. GDP = -1.0
It’s only July…they have time to preen as Hawkish, raise rates a bit, but as the election draws closer, will kick back into political mode, “pivot” by lowering rates, and declare the economy saved! The Fed is captured by this administration.
.75 basis point hike and GDP=-1.7
The will introduce a new vaccine that will prevent everyone from suffering greatly from a recession. Fauchi will announce the vaccine at the meeting.
Fed Logic - Recession is impossible if inflation is high enough
Let us eat cake!
75bps, "employment remains strong," "seeing signs of peaking," "paying close attention the data on rates," -1.9% GDP, AND ever so slight adjustment to asset QT roll-off schedule to take advantage of the market handling an orderly deleveraging...
75bps tomorrow, they will not want to surprise the markets that are pricing that in. Press conference will allude to still strong economy based on still low Unemployment Rate and high JOLTS data.
GDP -1.5%, I don't think the bad stuff hits until Q3.
The think to really watch is what they say at Jackson Hole before the September meeting. that is when they can adjust their stance if they decide that the economy is not that strong after all
They'll stick with .75 then say a bunch of nonsense. Markets are going to just chop sideways or go down until they completely reverse
Easy. Hike of 75bp, GDP -0.81 and a few sentences about “globally challenging time” “robust economy” and “strong job” equalling no recession. Done.
My prediction for the Fed as well as GDP? Nothing good nor honest.
0.75 raise and -2.9% gdp
with an olive branch of future data dependent easing to make sure that the dems still have a shot in november.
dont forget that this .75% raise takes us to 2.5% which might allow for an emergency “temporary” 0.25% cut to goose the stock market before the primaries!
GDP at -0.45 and the Fed raises 0.75 with comments indicating future increases should be less than this but they will remain “data dependent “
I think the Fed works hand-in-hand with the WHO and the WEF to destroy as much as possible of the Western economies: 1% rate hike and full speed ahead towards the next iceberg!
+50bps -1.9%
75bps. GDP -1.1 (later revised down to -1.8)
.75 BP and -1.88 - Mumbo jumbo that while slowing it looks like it's slowing slower.
I will say a hike of 75 bps, and a totally massaged and fraudulent -0.8 for GDP. They change the definition of everything so frequently that none of it can be trusted, so why not fudge the GDP lower to make the rubes who believe them feel better?
50bp hike, -0.8 GDP
+75bps and -1.9GDP. Watch for some dovish comments from Powell meaning equities rally into the close. The market seems to have priced in negative outcomes already given today's bounce off what were slight misses from Microsoft and Google.
The FED is like the guy in the woods with his buddy, outrunning the bear. They don't have to outrun the bear, just the ECB.
raise 75
relax the tough talk,
explain how inflation is moderating, though deserves vigilance.
The lawless Dems have probably kidnapped Jaypows grandkids.
JPow pulls a Budd Dwyer and we end the day on a market halt.
Fed raises 75 bps, GDP =-1.2
.75 basis points and Powell will spew BS about the strong economy and employment numbers. GDP will be down again 1.5%. Markets will swill his glowing outlook and the dow is up 500
Whatever the Moron Krugman 'thinks' - expect the opposite.
My thought is he’ll go 100 basis points and talk tough.
He'll defer to the Fed’s mandate of a strong employment AND a strong currency. Because we already have super strong employment and inflation is out of control, he'll have to act as his legacy depends on it.
100 basis points is not near enough to fix inflation but it's enough to look like he's trying.
Fed - 75 BP hike, no significant dovish talk
GDP - Negative 2.6%
Fed 75
GDP -2.22
With the continued high inflation, I think they go 100+ bps, and indicate they expect the next raise to be in the 25 to 50 bps range. Additionally, they will specifically say that managing inflation (return to 2%)remains their top priority. They will also vote to continue to reduce their holdings as they continue QT(may be slightly more aggressive here). Esther George will vote at least 25% below whatever the rest of the committee votes and be the single holdout.
I predict ice cream will be served in the White House in very large amounts.
75 -2.0gdp..strong inflation fighting language...all bullshit
FED will stick with their 0.75 rise, the earliest for any pivot or change in language might come at Jackson Hole, especially if we hear about Japan negotiating with Russia for oil for yen. Market will see a rise of less than 0.75 in September, after pivot, as bullish, market will rise going into mid-terms. With the BEA under the thumb of Secretary Raimondo, would not be surprised to see a +0.2 in GDP to keep the "R" word out of news because the economy is great, and Biden single handily saving the American family $35/month!
Fed raises 75 bps, GDP -2.0
-0.4% on GDP and agree that Fed could start to flinch. Market also more likely to search for this now (growth concerns) than a few months ago (inflation concerns) IMHO.