As I wrote on Twitter moments ago, I think there’s an actual chance the Fed attempts to blunt the blow of a terrible GDP print by offering up dovish “data dependent” language tomorrow.
If that happens, expect a massive rip higher in all indices, and likely in the precious metals, too. If the Fed holds its ground and then we hit a terrible GDP print Thursday, hold on to your nuts because we’re heading in the other direction fast.
All you bulls are crazy, thinking the fed will back off and QE is coming back. Powell is a republican (appointed by Bush, Chairman under Trump) and doesn't care if he crashes the economy for the next two years. Hes just getting warmed up.
I am surprised, a little, that people still buy this GOP/Democrat difference mirage. It's us against them. That said, 100 bps, no relaxing on tough talk. Still waiting on the balance sheer shrinkage, Jerry.
You are correct sir. I probably phrased that incorrectly. Powell isn't going to make moves because he is a republican, likely he doesnt care. He’s not going to back off to save democrats. QE is over, the Fed “Put” is over, and rates are going up for a while.
It has to happen. JPow and team look exactly like Al Pacino at the end of Scarface, covered in blow, high as a kite, in need of recovery. The party is over and Powell is at least there to remind them all that the party IS ACTUALLY OVER this time. They can at least Try to pretend they're being responsible. They certainly don't have any credibility left.
We are 100% in agreement. He is going to make us pay the Obama party, the Trump party and the Biden party in one big down payment. He is going to save this country (that must be his state of mind). He is doing it for the history books, he is personally done, he is betting his legacy here. The man that save de Dollar or the man that destroyed? Recession and the Stock market are secondary casualties of a bigger war. The stocks will recover later.
How does Jay save the dollar without bankrupting the US government? Because of its 120% debt to GDP, at some point - probably around a 4% FFR - the US will be in a debt doom loop, where it has to borrow more to pay the higher interest, with the increased borrowing causing even higher interest and requiring even more borrowing, all the while with the economy heading south.
In the Volker era the US debt (as % of GDP) was about 1/4th of what it is today, so a high fed funds rate caused a bad recession but not a high-debt death spiral.
From The Fed? Obfuscation and Wishy-Washy Mumbo-Jumbo that says absolutely nothing of any import or substance other than a 50 bp Hike. In other words: Gaslighting.
GDP Thursday? Obfuscation and Wishy-Washy Mumbo-Jumbo that says nothing of any import or substance as to how we're NOT in a Recession...... In other words: Gaslighting.
The numbers they throw about regarding the Inflation Rate and GDP are so massaged that they make no sense whatsoever.
The Fed nearly destroyed its credibility late last year/early this year saying inflation was transitory. As other writers have said they have no choice but to go at least 75bp. If they were really smart they’d go 100bp and send a strong signal to markets they want to crush inflation expectations. Sitting on the fence and trying to soft c@$k this will backfire big time for them.
All these corporates boasting about having pricing power are in for a rude shock in 3mths when consumers start retrenching and cutting back on spending big time. Walmart was such a clear read on what consumers are already doing vs Chipotle smoking dope thinking they have pricing power!
Yeah, you're probably right. Can't help but look at the dovishness over the last decade though, and I think "What a bunch of Maroons", and expect them to cave......
They SHOULD raise a minimum of 100 bp every meeting through the end of the year. To Hell with the "Market", or as Stockman calls it, the Casino. We need to get back to the fundamentals of investing Long-Term, with REAL price discovery.
When I look at a bunch of the fishermen I work with, (great hard-workin' guys, but not the brightest bulbs in the pack), that have been Day Trading things like Gamestop & Crypto and WINNING, I KNOW the Market's broken. Possibly beyond repair......
These manipulated markets will never see "REAL price discovery" again. The Fed is playing Tip-It, trying to balance rate hikes with market expectations and balance sheet issues. Something's gotta give... the funny man balancing atop the pole is doomed to fall. This week? Maybe not... 75 bp is baked into equity prices, and everyone expects a crappy GDP print, so that's not likely to surprise. Things fall apart slowly, until they fall apart fast. We're getting close, but not there yet.
Whatever black rock CEO tells hem to do. Enough word salad on the gdp that most won’t have any idea what they are really saying. Similar to their new recession definition, sounded an awful lot like the VP standard word salad shit.
The Fed cannot declare themselves “data dependent”. It will be a huge mistake in the fight against inflation, the main source of disruption right now. I think that while a 75 bps hike is the most likely scenario, 100 bps is not out of the question. Any surprise has to be a hawkish surprise, we are in this place for being dovish, very unlikely they will err for the dovish side. You guys have to understand that the Fed is trying to kill the bubbles, the stock market is one of them, so forget about any bullish outcome. It is not possible. Powell needs to create a recession to save his legacy, the stock market will recover later.
After the RRC and MTDR earnings, if the Fed was smart they would buy oil and gas stocks. Unfortunately the Fed and their intermediaries like Fink at Black Rock will continue to short oil and nat gas to give the country the illusion that inflation has been eradicated. Capital flows to profitability unless there's manipulation. Whatever the Fed does and says will be in the rearview mirror by Friday.
They stick with .75. GDP comes in at + .5. They will manipulate the data to eke out something just this side of zero giving the WH another 90 days of cover on having to admit recession. There is an election in about 100 days. They can’t have recession on the tongues of their opponents for 100 days.
Once that is addressed they begin the execution of the next crisis (Monkey, Ebola, Marburg take your pick) which of course will feature all of the same stuff as the last crisis.
Dems have opponents, all right. The American people! They'll call it something else and think they're clever as nd we're stoopid, but we know a recession when we feel it, thanks to Barry Saetoro.
I don't think the goal is to get us into another public health "crisis." It's to get us into a long term military engagement to direct government spending to those who will benefit from such conflict.
This is what I am predicting from the fed…..”what we’ve noticed is the metrics are noticeably metric dependent and that dependence determines the determination for us to guide our guidance on the temporary long term policies, policy. Furthermore, the micro of the macro is an indication that indicates thoughtful thought of drivers that drive the economics of the economy. Therefore, our guidance is to guide policy determined from the metrics indicated in the determination."
75 BPS - Forward guidance abandoned for data which lets em
Be more flexible.
GDP surprises to the upside but still negative 1 percent real.
Summer still has reasons for people to spend and Wasn’t visa still reporting high spending? I suppose that was up to the end of May though.I still see these retail inventory build ups as partially planned for by to secure supply
It’s only July…they have time to preen as Hawkish, raise rates a bit, but as the election draws closer, will kick back into political mode, “pivot” by lowering rates, and declare the economy saved! The Fed is captured by this administration.
75bps, "employment remains strong," "seeing signs of peaking," "paying close attention the data on rates," -1.9% GDP, AND ever so slight adjustment to asset QT roll-off schedule to take advantage of the market handling an orderly deleveraging...
75bps tomorrow, they will not want to surprise the markets that are pricing that in. Press conference will allude to still strong economy based on still low Unemployment Rate and high JOLTS data.
GDP -1.5%, I don't think the bad stuff hits until Q3.
The think to really watch is what they say at Jackson Hole before the September meeting. that is when they can adjust their stance if they decide that the economy is not that strong after all
with an olive branch of future data dependent easing to make sure that the dems still have a shot in november.
dont forget that this .75% raise takes us to 2.5% which might allow for an emergency “temporary” 0.25% cut to goose the stock market before the primaries!
I think the Fed works hand-in-hand with the WHO and the WEF to destroy as much as possible of the Western economies: 1% rate hike and full speed ahead towards the next iceberg!
I will say a hike of 75 bps, and a totally massaged and fraudulent -0.8 for GDP. They change the definition of everything so frequently that none of it can be trusted, so why not fudge the GDP lower to make the rubes who believe them feel better?
+75bps and -1.9GDP. Watch for some dovish comments from Powell meaning equities rally into the close. The market seems to have priced in negative outcomes already given today's bounce off what were slight misses from Microsoft and Google.
Volker didn't do his raise overnight....he was at the Fed the whole episode of the 70's...always chasing rates just slightly behind inflation...it was not until the end, when he said, "f this, hows about 500BPs?"
reminds me of Red Addair taking out an oilwell fire by exploding it and removing ALL the O2.
.75 basis points and Powell will spew BS about the strong economy and employment numbers. GDP will be down again 1.5%. Markets will swill his glowing outlook and the dow is up 500
My thought is he’ll go 100 basis points and talk tough.
He'll defer to the Fed’s mandate of a strong employment AND a strong currency. Because we already have super strong employment and inflation is out of control, he'll have to act as his legacy depends on it.
100 basis points is not near enough to fix inflation but it's enough to look like he's trying.
With the continued high inflation, I think they go 100+ bps, and indicate they expect the next raise to be in the 25 to 50 bps range. Additionally, they will specifically say that managing inflation (return to 2%)remains their top priority. They will also vote to continue to reduce their holdings as they continue QT(may be slightly more aggressive here). Esther George will vote at least 25% below whatever the rest of the committee votes and be the single holdout.
We’ll, that didn’t age well. 75% and even E. George was on board. At least I got the ‘committed to 2%’ without any modifiers right, along with continuing the QT. Somewhat surprised at Powell’s mirroring the current line on ‘not a recession’ through semantics…really enjoyed the question that called him on the carpet for why citizens should be comfortable with ‘not a recession’ in light of his comments last summer about ‘transitory inflation’.
FED will stick with their 0.75 rise, the earliest for any pivot or change in language might come at Jackson Hole, especially if we hear about Japan negotiating with Russia for oil for yen. Market will see a rise of less than 0.75 in September, after pivot, as bullish, market will rise going into mid-terms. With the BEA under the thumb of Secretary Raimondo, would not be surprised to see a +0.2 in GDP to keep the "R" word out of news because the economy is great, and Biden single handily saving the American family $35/month!
-0.4% on GDP and agree that Fed could start to flinch. Market also more likely to search for this now (growth concerns) than a few months ago (inflation concerns) IMHO.
75bp hike, -0.9 GDP
FED raise 100bps, GDP = -2.4
That would be fukcing mayham.
All you bulls are crazy, thinking the fed will back off and QE is coming back. Powell is a republican (appointed by Bush, Chairman under Trump) and doesn't care if he crashes the economy for the next two years. Hes just getting warmed up.
I am surprised, a little, that people still buy this GOP/Democrat difference mirage. It's us against them. That said, 100 bps, no relaxing on tough talk. Still waiting on the balance sheer shrinkage, Jerry.
You are correct sir. I probably phrased that incorrectly. Powell isn't going to make moves because he is a republican, likely he doesnt care. He’s not going to back off to save democrats. QE is over, the Fed “Put” is over, and rates are going up for a while.
It has to happen. JPow and team look exactly like Al Pacino at the end of Scarface, covered in blow, high as a kite, in need of recovery. The party is over and Powell is at least there to remind them all that the party IS ACTUALLY OVER this time. They can at least Try to pretend they're being responsible. They certainly don't have any credibility left.
Cocaine Mitch has done wonders for the democrats.😒
We are 100% in agreement. He is going to make us pay the Obama party, the Trump party and the Biden party in one big down payment. He is going to save this country (that must be his state of mind). He is doing it for the history books, he is personally done, he is betting his legacy here. The man that save de Dollar or the man that destroyed? Recession and the Stock market are secondary casualties of a bigger war. The stocks will recover later.
Absolutely. Everyone hated Volker. Both parties called for his firing in the early 80’s. Now he’s the patron saint of Fed Governors.
How does Jay save the dollar without bankrupting the US government? Because of its 120% debt to GDP, at some point - probably around a 4% FFR - the US will be in a debt doom loop, where it has to borrow more to pay the higher interest, with the increased borrowing causing even higher interest and requiring even more borrowing, all the while with the economy heading south.
The rest of the world is worse. Capital flight from China and the gas-less Eurozone will prop up the dollar and depress gold.
In the Volker era the US debt (as % of GDP) was about 1/4th of what it is today, so a high fed funds rate caused a bad recession but not a high-debt death spiral.
From The Fed? Obfuscation and Wishy-Washy Mumbo-Jumbo that says absolutely nothing of any import or substance other than a 50 bp Hike. In other words: Gaslighting.
GDP Thursday? Obfuscation and Wishy-Washy Mumbo-Jumbo that says nothing of any import or substance as to how we're NOT in a Recession...... In other words: Gaslighting.
The numbers they throw about regarding the Inflation Rate and GDP are so massaged that they make no sense whatsoever.
The Fed nearly destroyed its credibility late last year/early this year saying inflation was transitory. As other writers have said they have no choice but to go at least 75bp. If they were really smart they’d go 100bp and send a strong signal to markets they want to crush inflation expectations. Sitting on the fence and trying to soft c@$k this will backfire big time for them.
All these corporates boasting about having pricing power are in for a rude shock in 3mths when consumers start retrenching and cutting back on spending big time. Walmart was such a clear read on what consumers are already doing vs Chipotle smoking dope thinking they have pricing power!
Yeah, you're probably right. Can't help but look at the dovishness over the last decade though, and I think "What a bunch of Maroons", and expect them to cave......
They SHOULD raise a minimum of 100 bp every meeting through the end of the year. To Hell with the "Market", or as Stockman calls it, the Casino. We need to get back to the fundamentals of investing Long-Term, with REAL price discovery.
When I look at a bunch of the fishermen I work with, (great hard-workin' guys, but not the brightest bulbs in the pack), that have been Day Trading things like Gamestop & Crypto and WINNING, I KNOW the Market's broken. Possibly beyond repair......
These manipulated markets will never see "REAL price discovery" again. The Fed is playing Tip-It, trying to balance rate hikes with market expectations and balance sheet issues. Something's gotta give... the funny man balancing atop the pole is doomed to fall. This week? Maybe not... 75 bp is baked into equity prices, and everyone expects a crappy GDP print, so that's not likely to surprise. Things fall apart slowly, until they fall apart fast. We're getting close, but not there yet.
75 bps and a bunch of bs, then back track quickly when they decide what makes a recession!!
Whatever black rock CEO tells hem to do. Enough word salad on the gdp that most won’t have any idea what they are really saying. Similar to their new recession definition, sounded an awful lot like the VP standard word salad shit.
The Fed cannot declare themselves “data dependent”. It will be a huge mistake in the fight against inflation, the main source of disruption right now. I think that while a 75 bps hike is the most likely scenario, 100 bps is not out of the question. Any surprise has to be a hawkish surprise, we are in this place for being dovish, very unlikely they will err for the dovish side. You guys have to understand that the Fed is trying to kill the bubbles, the stock market is one of them, so forget about any bullish outcome. It is not possible. Powell needs to create a recession to save his legacy, the stock market will recover later.
After the RRC and MTDR earnings, if the Fed was smart they would buy oil and gas stocks. Unfortunately the Fed and their intermediaries like Fink at Black Rock will continue to short oil and nat gas to give the country the illusion that inflation has been eradicated. Capital flows to profitability unless there's manipulation. Whatever the Fed does and says will be in the rearview mirror by Friday.
I am predicting the same...more BS!!! My answer should be generic enough to cover either possibility. Looking forward to my new subscription. :-)
It’s almost like you’ve already won…
+75bps, -2.1% GDP.
They stick with .75. GDP comes in at + .5. They will manipulate the data to eke out something just this side of zero giving the WH another 90 days of cover on having to admit recession. There is an election in about 100 days. They can’t have recession on the tongues of their opponents for 100 days.
Once that is addressed they begin the execution of the next crisis (Monkey, Ebola, Marburg take your pick) which of course will feature all of the same stuff as the last crisis.
It’s all enterprise fraud. Do not comply.
Dems have opponents, all right. The American people! They'll call it something else and think they're clever as nd we're stoopid, but we know a recession when we feel it, thanks to Barry Saetoro.
I don't think the goal is to get us into another public health "crisis." It's to get us into a long term military engagement to direct government spending to those who will benefit from such conflict.
Yes. That too. Good point.
50 bps, “data dependent”, GDP -2, “not a recession”
raise 75bp. gdp -2.5
raise 75 bps. gdp -2.1
FED raise 0.75%, GDP minus 1.87
Raise by 50bps and indicate further adjustments will be more data dependent as we see this peaking shortly. GDP -1.42.
This is what I am predicting from the fed…..”what we’ve noticed is the metrics are noticeably metric dependent and that dependence determines the determination for us to guide our guidance on the temporary long term policies, policy. Furthermore, the micro of the macro is an indication that indicates thoughtful thought of drivers that drive the economics of the economy. Therefore, our guidance is to guide policy determined from the metrics indicated in the determination."
75 BPS - Forward guidance abandoned for data which lets em
Be more flexible.
GDP surprises to the upside but still negative 1 percent real.
Summer still has reasons for people to spend and Wasn’t visa still reporting high spending? I suppose that was up to the end of May though.I still see these retail inventory build ups as partially planned for by to secure supply
Fed raises 75 bps. GDP = -1.0
It’s only July…they have time to preen as Hawkish, raise rates a bit, but as the election draws closer, will kick back into political mode, “pivot” by lowering rates, and declare the economy saved! The Fed is captured by this administration.
.75 basis point hike and GDP=-1.7
The will introduce a new vaccine that will prevent everyone from suffering greatly from a recession. Fauchi will announce the vaccine at the meeting.
Fed Logic - Recession is impossible if inflation is high enough
Let us eat cake!
75bps, "employment remains strong," "seeing signs of peaking," "paying close attention the data on rates," -1.9% GDP, AND ever so slight adjustment to asset QT roll-off schedule to take advantage of the market handling an orderly deleveraging...
75bps tomorrow, they will not want to surprise the markets that are pricing that in. Press conference will allude to still strong economy based on still low Unemployment Rate and high JOLTS data.
GDP -1.5%, I don't think the bad stuff hits until Q3.
The think to really watch is what they say at Jackson Hole before the September meeting. that is when they can adjust their stance if they decide that the economy is not that strong after all
They'll stick with .75 then say a bunch of nonsense. Markets are going to just chop sideways or go down until they completely reverse
Easy. Hike of 75bp, GDP -0.81 and a few sentences about “globally challenging time” “robust economy” and “strong job” equalling no recession. Done.
My prediction for the Fed as well as GDP? Nothing good nor honest.
0.75 raise and -2.9% gdp
with an olive branch of future data dependent easing to make sure that the dems still have a shot in november.
dont forget that this .75% raise takes us to 2.5% which might allow for an emergency “temporary” 0.25% cut to goose the stock market before the primaries!
GDP at -0.45 and the Fed raises 0.75 with comments indicating future increases should be less than this but they will remain “data dependent “
I think the Fed works hand-in-hand with the WHO and the WEF to destroy as much as possible of the Western economies: 1% rate hike and full speed ahead towards the next iceberg!
Okay, I was wrong. 😃
+50bps -1.9%
75bps. GDP -1.1 (later revised down to -1.8)
.75 BP and -1.88 - Mumbo jumbo that while slowing it looks like it's slowing slower.
I will say a hike of 75 bps, and a totally massaged and fraudulent -0.8 for GDP. They change the definition of everything so frequently that none of it can be trusted, so why not fudge the GDP lower to make the rubes who believe them feel better?
50bp hike, -0.8 GDP
+75bps and -1.9GDP. Watch for some dovish comments from Powell meaning equities rally into the close. The market seems to have priced in negative outcomes already given today's bounce off what were slight misses from Microsoft and Google.
The FED is like the guy in the woods with his buddy, outrunning the bear. They don't have to outrun the bear, just the ECB.
raise 75
relax the tough talk,
explain how inflation is moderating, though deserves vigilance.
The lawless Dems have probably kidnapped Jaypows grandkids.
Volker didn't do his raise overnight....he was at the Fed the whole episode of the 70's...always chasing rates just slightly behind inflation...it was not until the end, when he said, "f this, hows about 500BPs?"
reminds me of Red Addair taking out an oilwell fire by exploding it and removing ALL the O2.
JPow pulls a Budd Dwyer and we end the day on a market halt.
Fed raises 75 bps, GDP =-1.2
.75 basis points and Powell will spew BS about the strong economy and employment numbers. GDP will be down again 1.5%. Markets will swill his glowing outlook and the dow is up 500
Whatever the Moron Krugman 'thinks' - expect the opposite.
My thought is he’ll go 100 basis points and talk tough.
He'll defer to the Fed’s mandate of a strong employment AND a strong currency. Because we already have super strong employment and inflation is out of control, he'll have to act as his legacy depends on it.
100 basis points is not near enough to fix inflation but it's enough to look like he's trying.
Fed - 75 BP hike, no significant dovish talk
GDP - Negative 2.6%
Fed 75
GDP -2.22
With the continued high inflation, I think they go 100+ bps, and indicate they expect the next raise to be in the 25 to 50 bps range. Additionally, they will specifically say that managing inflation (return to 2%)remains their top priority. They will also vote to continue to reduce their holdings as they continue QT(may be slightly more aggressive here). Esther George will vote at least 25% below whatever the rest of the committee votes and be the single holdout.
We’ll, that didn’t age well. 75% and even E. George was on board. At least I got the ‘committed to 2%’ without any modifiers right, along with continuing the QT. Somewhat surprised at Powell’s mirroring the current line on ‘not a recession’ through semantics…really enjoyed the question that called him on the carpet for why citizens should be comfortable with ‘not a recession’ in light of his comments last summer about ‘transitory inflation’.
I predict ice cream will be served in the White House in very large amounts.
75 -2.0gdp..strong inflation fighting language...all bullshit
FED will stick with their 0.75 rise, the earliest for any pivot or change in language might come at Jackson Hole, especially if we hear about Japan negotiating with Russia for oil for yen. Market will see a rise of less than 0.75 in September, after pivot, as bullish, market will rise going into mid-terms. With the BEA under the thumb of Secretary Raimondo, would not be surprised to see a +0.2 in GDP to keep the "R" word out of news because the economy is great, and Biden single handily saving the American family $35/month!
Fed raises 75 bps, GDP -2.0
-0.4% on GDP and agree that Fed could start to flinch. Market also more likely to search for this now (growth concerns) than a few months ago (inflation concerns) IMHO.