Kevin Smith and Bad Santa references in the same article about financial market/ media ignorance and corruption. This is why I love QTR. This is the way.
The Santa Claus rally this year is like that moment when the 23 shots of Jack Daniels hasn’t hit yet, and you feel like another 8 will just make that much more of a good time….not to mention the pyramid of empty beer cans.
Isn't there nearly automatic flows into the markets near year end that cause some of this? Pensions being funded (assuming they still are!), and 401k flows that automatically go into the market, much of it via index funds and ETF's...
Yes, Cramer and the rest of it is total nonsense. There is no truth in the media these days, be it covering the markets, politics or any other meaningful subject...Who the hell listens to these clowns?
Santa Claus rally was a lot easier with rates of 0% - now with rates of 4% investors are finally looking at balance sheets and fundamentals.
If the rumors of Elon's cost savings are true - they were spending $400 / meal for employees that were on campus. These tech stocks were never going to make money if that is the case.
The days of buying Vanguard index funds are over to make money. There are stocks out there with single PE ratios with lots of FCF coming in.
Although with housing basically toast - credit card balances crossed the Trillion dollar mark and inflation not going away - no idea how the average American family is going to survive without going broke.
I am just waiting for OPEC to pull the plug on US getting oil after Biden and Yellen drain the Strategic Reserves. Then shit is really going to hit the fan. The Middle East has hated America for decades - the one way they can cripple us is by ending the oil supply.
The consumer has really never had to tighten their belts so to speak. The idea that inflation will drop back down to 2-3% and energy prices will go lower into 2023 are wrong at best unknown. The amount of debt the American household has is unsustainable. I agree that the talking heads are doing a real disservice to the average investor. It’s not as profitable, but most of my clients are earning 4-5% in treasuries waiting on a climate change that may not come anytime soon.
Cramer makes me think of Gollum from the Lord of the Rings. I bet if you threw an earnings report from 5Below into a toilet, he'd jump in after it, screaming "Retail Investors are Wrong!"
Doesn't seem like you understand basic seasonality. Over the last 100 years of market history, the most favorable period for stocks is between the end of October and December 31st -- rising 74% of the time.
During a midterm election year, this figure jumps to 82% of the time.
During a midterm election year of a new President's first term this figure jumps to 95% of the time.
In fact, there has only been one year over the last 100 YEARS that stocks have not risen precipitously between this exact time period during a Midterm election cycle, a Presidential Election cycle (third year of a President's first term), and this "Santa Clause rally" period.
So in other words -- you're trying to say that this period will NOT be favorable....despite the fact that there has only been 1 year out of the last century that it wasn't and that was in 1938.
Sorry -- I'm going to go with the overwhelming statistical probability that you are wrong.
To drive home just how silly it is to call for stocks to drop during this period -- there have only been 5 other times in history that a bear market has extended this far into the end of the year. 4 out of 5 of those times the bear market literally ended at the end of October and the market rose into the New Year.
Zero statistics or historical seasonality are on your side for this analysis.
Kevin Smith and Bad Santa references in the same article about financial market/ media ignorance and corruption. This is why I love QTR. This is the way.
Finger-cuffs!
The Santa Claus rally this year is like that moment when the 23 shots of Jack Daniels hasn’t hit yet, and you feel like another 8 will just make that much more of a good time….not to mention the pyramid of empty beer cans.
Isn't there nearly automatic flows into the markets near year end that cause some of this? Pensions being funded (assuming they still are!), and 401k flows that automatically go into the market, much of it via index funds and ETF's...
Yes, Cramer and the rest of it is total nonsense. There is no truth in the media these days, be it covering the markets, politics or any other meaningful subject...Who the hell listens to these clowns?
Santa Claus rally was a lot easier with rates of 0% - now with rates of 4% investors are finally looking at balance sheets and fundamentals.
If the rumors of Elon's cost savings are true - they were spending $400 / meal for employees that were on campus. These tech stocks were never going to make money if that is the case.
The days of buying Vanguard index funds are over to make money. There are stocks out there with single PE ratios with lots of FCF coming in.
Although with housing basically toast - credit card balances crossed the Trillion dollar mark and inflation not going away - no idea how the average American family is going to survive without going broke.
I am just waiting for OPEC to pull the plug on US getting oil after Biden and Yellen drain the Strategic Reserves. Then shit is really going to hit the fan. The Middle East has hated America for decades - the one way they can cripple us is by ending the oil supply.
The consumer has really never had to tighten their belts so to speak. The idea that inflation will drop back down to 2-3% and energy prices will go lower into 2023 are wrong at best unknown. The amount of debt the American household has is unsustainable. I agree that the talking heads are doing a real disservice to the average investor. It’s not as profitable, but most of my clients are earning 4-5% in treasuries waiting on a climate change that may not come anytime soon.
The market seems to do just the opposite of what I think it should do. I’m no permabear either, but my spidey senses say something’s not quite right.
A lot of BS media everywhere, I turned off the TV a decade ago.
Cramer makes me think of Gollum from the Lord of the Rings. I bet if you threw an earnings report from 5Below into a toilet, he'd jump in after it, screaming "Retail Investors are Wrong!"
Doesn't seem like you understand basic seasonality. Over the last 100 years of market history, the most favorable period for stocks is between the end of October and December 31st -- rising 74% of the time.
During a midterm election year, this figure jumps to 82% of the time.
During a midterm election year of a new President's first term this figure jumps to 95% of the time.
In fact, there has only been one year over the last 100 YEARS that stocks have not risen precipitously between this exact time period during a Midterm election cycle, a Presidential Election cycle (third year of a President's first term), and this "Santa Clause rally" period.
So in other words -- you're trying to say that this period will NOT be favorable....despite the fact that there has only been 1 year out of the last century that it wasn't and that was in 1938.
Sorry -- I'm going to go with the overwhelming statistical probability that you are wrong.
To drive home just how silly it is to call for stocks to drop during this period -- there have only been 5 other times in history that a bear market has extended this far into the end of the year. 4 out of 5 of those times the bear market literally ended at the end of October and the market rose into the New Year.
Zero statistics or historical seasonality are on your side for this analysis.
2018 was an example of a successfully-predicted Santa Claus rally because the market bottomed on schedule on December 24th:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Claus_rally