This one may be a lot of worse than previous recessions too. 2008 was housing - but people had an asset behind their debt.
2023 and 2024 - we have had a decade + of inflation in 2 years. Credit card debt is the highest in history - average rate of 23%. The credit card debt does not have an asset behind it - mostly because it was spent on food or a trip.
When this recession hits - the bubble that bursts will be people’s personal credit as they just try to maintain their lifestyle of the past decade. Wages did not keep up with cost of living and interest rates of 20%+
The government or fed will not be able to “rescue” the general public like they did for banks in 2008 - mostly because our government is broke too.
The housing market is going to come to a complete stop - people will do whatever they can stay in their homes with 3% mortgages and the cost of new construction with 8% mortgages - houses will sit empty.
The stock market appears to be leveraged to moon with valuations it is trading at. Feel that we have a 1987 moment coming when we have a down 25% week.
Well lots of random thoughts from me. Just do not see any positive angles for the economy at the moment
Also I was visiting a friend last night who is a president of a local bank. They have been a big player in local business lending for decades. Asked him how business was going - he admitted liquidity is tough right now and they are looking for deposits. However they don't plan on lending them to consumers directly - but sending loaning them via the fed over night and collecting the 5% risk free return. They would rather do that versus lending to a local business at 6 or 7% and taking risk of the future recession.
Well if small businesses are running out of liquidity to expand or grow - that will be another sign of companies are going to start tightening the purse strings.
You published the same reply, verbatim, to my post below. I guess either you’re a bot, posting identical nonsensical comments wherever you can, or you really do think the Jooz (Zionists) are a secret cabal behind all worldwide conspiracies.
There is too much much emphasis on curve inversions. Yes, I use them within a multifaceted analysis. They are useful, but you shouldn't make it your "tried and true" recession indicator.
1. Obviously, there are other economic factors and dynamics going on as the curve inverts or steepens. The curve is a reflection of that.
2. Typically, a recession occurs after the 10y/3m curve inverts between 12 and 18.
3. The mean time between inversion and recession is 15 months. The shortest time between the two is 9 months, with the longest being up to 24 months.
4 What you do between that time is fucking crucial, and you'll like will have to adapt to changing dynamics.
Feel free to check out my Substack @ themacrobrief.substack.com - currently 50% OFF annual, earn free months when you refer friend. More you refer, more you save!
I'm not a sophisticated finance guy. I don't have an economics degree. But I do have a math degree and in "reworking" Table One, I have some questions... First, the "average, ALL YEARS" is 299 days (9.8 months) from YC inversion to the beginning of the recession, yet the article mentions a 10-13 month lag, putting the recession in early 2024. Counting from October 26, 2022, the 299-day average puts the contraction starting on August 21, 2023, not early 2024.
For a reason not explained, the author breaks the 53-year table into "pre-1985" and "post 1985," which makes a hundred-day difference in the results (248 pre and 349 post). Why? Why not pick 1975 as the break point, averaging the two lowest values and everything else (159.5 days pre-1975 and 345 days post-1975)? Perhaps there is a good reason to consider pre-1985 separately from post-1985, but the reason is not clear.
Better yet, drop the highest and lowest values from the average, lest the outlier(s) unduly influence the average. Dropping 153 and 502 from the calculation yields an average of 289 days, only 10 days off the all-years average, putting the recession's start at August 7, 2023, less than a month away. Add eight months for NEBR to wake up and admit we're in a recession, and you have the announcement coming in April, 2024, in plenty of time to tank the Democrats' chances of holding the White House.
There are a few economists/investors I follow that suggest this will be the next great depression due to the massive debt loads and credit across the globe.
This one may be a lot of worse than previous recessions too. 2008 was housing - but people had an asset behind their debt.
2023 and 2024 - we have had a decade + of inflation in 2 years. Credit card debt is the highest in history - average rate of 23%. The credit card debt does not have an asset behind it - mostly because it was spent on food or a trip.
When this recession hits - the bubble that bursts will be people’s personal credit as they just try to maintain their lifestyle of the past decade. Wages did not keep up with cost of living and interest rates of 20%+
The government or fed will not be able to “rescue” the general public like they did for banks in 2008 - mostly because our government is broke too.
The housing market is going to come to a complete stop - people will do whatever they can stay in their homes with 3% mortgages and the cost of new construction with 8% mortgages - houses will sit empty.
The stock market appears to be leveraged to moon with valuations it is trading at. Feel that we have a 1987 moment coming when we have a down 25% week.
Well lots of random thoughts from me. Just do not see any positive angles for the economy at the moment
Also I was visiting a friend last night who is a president of a local bank. They have been a big player in local business lending for decades. Asked him how business was going - he admitted liquidity is tough right now and they are looking for deposits. However they don't plan on lending them to consumers directly - but sending loaning them via the fed over night and collecting the 5% risk free return. They would rather do that versus lending to a local business at 6 or 7% and taking risk of the future recession.
Well if small businesses are running out of liquidity to expand or grow - that will be another sign of companies are going to start tightening the purse strings.
You published the same reply, verbatim, to my post below. I guess either you’re a bot, posting identical nonsensical comments wherever you can, or you really do think the Jooz (Zionists) are a secret cabal behind all worldwide conspiracies.
There is too much much emphasis on curve inversions. Yes, I use them within a multifaceted analysis. They are useful, but you shouldn't make it your "tried and true" recession indicator.
1. Obviously, there are other economic factors and dynamics going on as the curve inverts or steepens. The curve is a reflection of that.
2. Typically, a recession occurs after the 10y/3m curve inverts between 12 and 18.
3. The mean time between inversion and recession is 15 months. The shortest time between the two is 9 months, with the longest being up to 24 months.
4 What you do between that time is fucking crucial, and you'll like will have to adapt to changing dynamics.
Feel free to check out my Substack @ themacrobrief.substack.com - currently 50% OFF annual, earn free months when you refer friend. More you refer, more you save!
Three identical, verbatim posts = being reported for spam.
I'm not a sophisticated finance guy. I don't have an economics degree. But I do have a math degree and in "reworking" Table One, I have some questions... First, the "average, ALL YEARS" is 299 days (9.8 months) from YC inversion to the beginning of the recession, yet the article mentions a 10-13 month lag, putting the recession in early 2024. Counting from October 26, 2022, the 299-day average puts the contraction starting on August 21, 2023, not early 2024.
For a reason not explained, the author breaks the 53-year table into "pre-1985" and "post 1985," which makes a hundred-day difference in the results (248 pre and 349 post). Why? Why not pick 1975 as the break point, averaging the two lowest values and everything else (159.5 days pre-1975 and 345 days post-1975)? Perhaps there is a good reason to consider pre-1985 separately from post-1985, but the reason is not clear.
Better yet, drop the highest and lowest values from the average, lest the outlier(s) unduly influence the average. Dropping 153 and 502 from the calculation yields an average of 289 days, only 10 days off the all-years average, putting the recession's start at August 7, 2023, less than a month away. Add eight months for NEBR to wake up and admit we're in a recession, and you have the announcement coming in April, 2024, in plenty of time to tank the Democrats' chances of holding the White House.
And this was your reply to my mathematical presentation because…???
This time is very different. When you live in a kleptocracy inverted yield curves mean nothing.
Yardeni is in the "its different this time" camp as it relates to the yield curve predicting a recession.
Lot's of "its different this time" talk these days with lofty stock market valuations as well.
There are a few economists/investors I follow that suggest this will be the next great depression due to the massive debt loads and credit across the globe.
Long TLT ETF?