Andy Schectman lays out a worst case scenario for most dollar denominated assets on my most recent podcast, and, unfortunately, his prognostications don't sound as unreasonable as one might think.
Aug 17, 2022·edited Aug 17, 2022Liked by Quoth the Raven
I really enjoyed your podcast and listened to it a few nights ago. We have a front seat to the greatest geopolitical realignment since the end of WWII, and no one in the national press is discussing it. As the saying goes, Good times make soft men, soft men make hard times, hard times make hard men, hard men make good times.
Hi Chris. I'm an interested reader of your letters (and tweets) and like your interviews a lot. But it seems to me that you always speak with people that mostly agree with your own views. Don't get me wrong, I also agree with some of your main concerns for the times to come, but I think it would be more interesting to have someone questioning your assumptions rather than confirming them. The risk is that we keep ourselves in a bubble, listening to what we all agree and not considering other views. You can say that there other newsletters out there, which is fair enough, but I believe your own would be richer if you had arguments exchanged between opposite (or at least, not common) perspectives. Cheers!
The strategic petroleum reserve was intended to be used in national emergencies, not political emergencies. Biden energy policies are killing good people and endangering the rest.
I was solidly in the camp that the Fed won't raise rates because that would blow up the Euro system and that the globalist interests based in Europe are 1) in control and 2) would prevent that from happening.
However, in listening to a recent Tom Luongo interview, he had a very interesting point about whether or not the Fed is under the control of the European globalists. He posited that the globalists have seriously erred by threatening the position of the US/NY banking powers through the looming EU CBDC (and the push for coordinated global CBDCs controlled by them, which would eviscerate commercial banking to a large degree). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWGXdusj0Ig&t=2962s
Crucially, he believes that this error will be fatal to the globalist dream, as the coalition has fractured. J Powell is solidly in the NY banking faction and is raising rates precisely to destroy the Euro system and their dream of controlling all of Western finance. If that is true, then all bets are off in terms of a Fed turnaround, we can no longer assume that they will pause because raising would destroy the EU... what if that was the actual goal?
It reminds me of the often repeated, but still amazingly insightful Twain quote, "It's not what you don't know that kills you, it's what you know for sure that ain't true.“
Tom's point seems plausible and if it was true, then our assumption that the Fed will not raise because of the damage to Europe is disastrously wrong.
HOWEVER, here is the problem with this "worst case scenario" for the USD:
1) The Saudis (gov't + private individuals) probably have 100s of billions if not trillions worth of USD along with Sterling and Euro denominated assets abroad e.g. sovereign wealth fund, all the real estate and mansions they own abroad, foreign stocks-investments, cash etc ITS NOT IN THEIR INTEREST FOR AN UNCONTROLLED DESTRUCTION OF THE USD or USD DENOMINATED ASSETS... It would destabilize them at home too much...
2) The House of Saud cares only about one thing - STAYING IN POWER. By pursuing alliances with Russia, China and even Israel, they mitigate the risk of being dependent on the USA for security or the US gov't turning against them e.g. over MBS and the Khashoggi incident...
3) Although the Saudis own part of Twitter which has operations in Saudi Arabia and probably have stakes in FB and other social media platforms/apps etc, a "color revolution" could still be organized by Twitter's and social media's real owners or controllers... We all know who they are... ;)
By seeking alliances with other powers, the House of Saud spreads their security eggs around and increases their chances of survival long-term... Same goes with moving some of their wealth into BRICS or Gold denominated assets or whatever the Russians-Chinese-BRICS etc are trying to come up with...
Exactly why any chart that has $$$ or %of$ on the Y axis has to be called into question. Everything from a bullshit series on inflation to credit-funded stock buybacks to the Fed shorting vol...
“We’ve milked as much from the system as humanly possible.”
We've milked all knowledge from the market. When the Y axis is meaningless as a unit of measure there is literally no knowledge left in your chart!
Just remember this the next time you hear "liquidity crisis". In an auction, if you have an idiot with a money tree behind the curtain and he blindly bids things up, at some point you think "there is no way that shit is worth that bid." You - and everyone else who has even less cognitive presence than Biden - puts your paddle down and there is no bid.
A liquidity crisis! BULLSHIT. It's a knowledge crisis... No one knows what anything is worth. There is not only more than enough liquidity in the market, there is so much excess liquidity that knowledge has drowned. When that decomposing body finally floats to the surface...
Andy's breakdown of all the pieces being moved into place on the geopolitical chess board was 1) brilliant and 2) unbelievably fucking terrifying. I had a visceral reaction as he was drawing to the logical conclusion of it all. Great discussion.
He summed up: “We’ve milked as much from the system as humanly possible.”
Correction:
The political class has milked as much from the system as anger from producers and consumers will bear. People are getting fed up with lower standards of living in spite of technological progress.
I'm a new subscriber and first time listening to the podcast. Not really impressed with the host's 'shtick' . I think he could tone it down a bit with the antics. Had to fast forward past the inane introduction. Hoping that his interviewee has more to say than the host.
Good interview and there is certainly a line of reasoning that could support Andy's thesis. However, we cannot discount real problems in China or Russia in the mid-term.
Bottom line is there will be pain, much pain, regardless, and few save havens. Now is the time to have means and access to good sources of the stuff-of-life: Energy and food.
Small quibble: the amount of times you say, "you know" as a nervous tic really got distracting. Once you start hearing it, it becomes almost difficult to hear past it through the content.
Otherwise I love the style and content. It's refreshing to hear a non-stage managed voice with contrarian views backed up by observation and facts.
This was a great interview. The one idea that kept popping into my head during this piece:
this can’t be all a Big coincidence, especially when the entire MSM IS NOT COVERING IT!
I really enjoyed your podcast and listened to it a few nights ago. We have a front seat to the greatest geopolitical realignment since the end of WWII, and no one in the national press is discussing it. As the saying goes, Good times make soft men, soft men make hard times, hard times make hard men, hard men make good times.
Hi Chris. I'm an interested reader of your letters (and tweets) and like your interviews a lot. But it seems to me that you always speak with people that mostly agree with your own views. Don't get me wrong, I also agree with some of your main concerns for the times to come, but I think it would be more interesting to have someone questioning your assumptions rather than confirming them. The risk is that we keep ourselves in a bubble, listening to what we all agree and not considering other views. You can say that there other newsletters out there, which is fair enough, but I believe your own would be richer if you had arguments exchanged between opposite (or at least, not common) perspectives. Cheers!
The strategic petroleum reserve was intended to be used in national emergencies, not political emergencies. Biden energy policies are killing good people and endangering the rest.
I was solidly in the camp that the Fed won't raise rates because that would blow up the Euro system and that the globalist interests based in Europe are 1) in control and 2) would prevent that from happening.
However, in listening to a recent Tom Luongo interview, he had a very interesting point about whether or not the Fed is under the control of the European globalists. He posited that the globalists have seriously erred by threatening the position of the US/NY banking powers through the looming EU CBDC (and the push for coordinated global CBDCs controlled by them, which would eviscerate commercial banking to a large degree). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWGXdusj0Ig&t=2962s
Crucially, he believes that this error will be fatal to the globalist dream, as the coalition has fractured. J Powell is solidly in the NY banking faction and is raising rates precisely to destroy the Euro system and their dream of controlling all of Western finance. If that is true, then all bets are off in terms of a Fed turnaround, we can no longer assume that they will pause because raising would destroy the EU... what if that was the actual goal?
It reminds me of the often repeated, but still amazingly insightful Twain quote, "It's not what you don't know that kills you, it's what you know for sure that ain't true.“
Tom's point seems plausible and if it was true, then our assumption that the Fed will not raise because of the damage to Europe is disastrously wrong.
Interesting interview and I included a link in my weekly https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/p/emerging-markets-week-august-22-2022
HOWEVER, here is the problem with this "worst case scenario" for the USD:
1) The Saudis (gov't + private individuals) probably have 100s of billions if not trillions worth of USD along with Sterling and Euro denominated assets abroad e.g. sovereign wealth fund, all the real estate and mansions they own abroad, foreign stocks-investments, cash etc ITS NOT IN THEIR INTEREST FOR AN UNCONTROLLED DESTRUCTION OF THE USD or USD DENOMINATED ASSETS... It would destabilize them at home too much...
2) The House of Saud cares only about one thing - STAYING IN POWER. By pursuing alliances with Russia, China and even Israel, they mitigate the risk of being dependent on the USA for security or the US gov't turning against them e.g. over MBS and the Khashoggi incident...
3) Although the Saudis own part of Twitter which has operations in Saudi Arabia and probably have stakes in FB and other social media platforms/apps etc, a "color revolution" could still be organized by Twitter's and social media's real owners or controllers... We all know who they are... ;)
By seeking alliances with other powers, the House of Saud spreads their security eggs around and increases their chances of survival long-term... Same goes with moving some of their wealth into BRICS or Gold denominated assets or whatever the Russians-Chinese-BRICS etc are trying to come up with...
why does it bother you so much that BRICS nations want to do what's in their best interest?
i listened to the interview and it was funny when you called that prospect "terrifying"
"oh no Russia will protect the rest of the world from our neocolonialism how scary" lmao
yea, it was a very good podcast, currently living in russia, i hear of this more,
from a sideview, the us media, and people, tend to not be hearing/seeing what is happening
The Mideast realignment over the last 18 months reads straight out of Bible prophecy, we are living in end times...
Exactly why any chart that has $$$ or %of$ on the Y axis has to be called into question. Everything from a bullshit series on inflation to credit-funded stock buybacks to the Fed shorting vol...
“We’ve milked as much from the system as humanly possible.”
We've milked all knowledge from the market. When the Y axis is meaningless as a unit of measure there is literally no knowledge left in your chart!
Just remember this the next time you hear "liquidity crisis". In an auction, if you have an idiot with a money tree behind the curtain and he blindly bids things up, at some point you think "there is no way that shit is worth that bid." You - and everyone else who has even less cognitive presence than Biden - puts your paddle down and there is no bid.
A liquidity crisis! BULLSHIT. It's a knowledge crisis... No one knows what anything is worth. There is not only more than enough liquidity in the market, there is so much excess liquidity that knowledge has drowned. When that decomposing body finally floats to the surface...
Andy's breakdown of all the pieces being moved into place on the geopolitical chess board was 1) brilliant and 2) unbelievably fucking terrifying. I had a visceral reaction as he was drawing to the logical conclusion of it all. Great discussion.
He summed up: “We’ve milked as much from the system as humanly possible.”
Correction:
The political class has milked as much from the system as anger from producers and consumers will bear. People are getting fed up with lower standards of living in spite of technological progress.
I'm a new subscriber and first time listening to the podcast. Not really impressed with the host's 'shtick' . I think he could tone it down a bit with the antics. Had to fast forward past the inane introduction. Hoping that his interviewee has more to say than the host.
Good interview and there is certainly a line of reasoning that could support Andy's thesis. However, we cannot discount real problems in China or Russia in the mid-term.
Bottom line is there will be pain, much pain, regardless, and few save havens. Now is the time to have means and access to good sources of the stuff-of-life: Energy and food.
Small quibble: the amount of times you say, "you know" as a nervous tic really got distracting. Once you start hearing it, it becomes almost difficult to hear past it through the content.
Otherwise I love the style and content. It's refreshing to hear a non-stage managed voice with contrarian views backed up by observation and facts.
Yes the West is broke and insolvent but so is China and probably Brazil. That said I agree the is a dedollarazion taking place.