At some point, hopefully sooner rather than later, states are going to pass laws saying that when a car gets in an accident and "auto pilot" (or any kind of fully automated driving) is on, the driver is presumed to be both "at fault" and "negligent" as a matter of law... THEN... insurance companies will look at autonomous cars as too risky to insure... THEN, not being able to get auto insurance, the market for this nonsense will disappear... THEN... Tesla goes to $0.
Knowing the "that" of something doesn't have much value in investing unless we know the "when". Not sure what Elons's end game is, but looks like he is working along side folks like Trump, Ellison and Thiel, bet against Musk at your own peril.
The question is, (IMO), WHO is "supporting" TSLA (and specifically Musk), through all these years of ascension? Who is the "poster boy" of EVs? Who is NASA's savior in the "space race"? Who has launched Starlink sats around the globe for WiFi? (And...?) I suspect TSLA is "protected," as a "National Treasure" corp.: "Too Big to Fail." Anyone remember Jubilation T. Cornpone?
Today Tesla is getting some benefits from the “Inflation reduction act”. When that runs it’s course then you may be right. It seems to me that Fundamentals don’t matter much right now. If we get a favorable inflation print it will be off to the races. Oil is being manipulated by the WH so there is no reason they couldn’t do this for any of their favored industries and companies. The Greens can’t afford to let Tesla Fail. If he skates on Twitter then assume Biden called his State to get them to go easy on them.
While I like this article for its summary - always useful -, and the author's efforts....
"I’ve always considered in the back of my mind that there’s a chance this company could bizarrely and unexplainably continue to move higher."
My rule is, "Don't tell me 'what', tell me 'WHEN'. Calling the possibility of a downfall is good clicks, but is nothing to invest or de-invest for. This is second or third derivative prediction. Anyone with a math background knows how useless each additional derivative becomes.
Despite the autopilot issues, a good statistical argument can be made that overall Tesla's have a lower accident and death rate than any other luxury brand. And gloating about govt regulatory agencies bearing down strikes me as anathema to rational, free-market investing - because it didn't begin until he began taking shots at Deep State sacred cows. Also, use of the word 'may' marks a bias statement.(my opinion, not fact)
Final point: the competing auto companies have a terrible record of producing reliable electric vehicles. Their efforts are so horrible that their tarnished model names have to be changed every 2-3 years. And as anyone knows who's had an electrical/electronics problem with their gas/diesel vehicles, the electron is the enemy of all auto companies - in many cases they turn you loose and say 'we can't do anything about it' - and no software programmer thinks having an auto company on their CV is anything but a huge negative. Meanwhile, they appear to have forgotten how to make quality gas cars - including engine disasters at places like Toyota, Ford. (remember, Toyota, if you sue me for that statement, 'discovery' may uncover a lot of skeletons! [joke])
i very much agree with the hypothesis here but believe that it is increasingly more about Peak Musk rather than just Peak Tesla ! All your examples are correct but have unmoved many fanatical investors , however his personal behaviours and other venture companies are now ringing many different negative bells... This pending crisis will also cover poor personal governance, like almost all the FANG board driven by egomaniacs and weak Board,s will be seen as a liability in the recession. The Twitter deal will expose the strength of the law, spacex has launch issues which may cost Musk huge sums, or may not even work for a few years . Regulators will not only bring Tesla to heel , as the other auto makers insist on a fair playing field, but other regulators will notice that EVs are not green in a world reliant on nat gas ...within the recessionary depression, governments will cease EV subsidies as they cannot afford it, preferring to subsidise the cost of living crisis. What ashame that so many savings in indexed funds will be wiped out as this value is destroyed!
Good notes…there is definitely reason to consider that we may have escaped the days of ‘Tesla reports terrible news while Elon plays new game with FSD….stock goes up 50%’. That said, I’ve got a few indicators that I think will tell us when we are really in the post Tesla phase. #1 is when Peter Thiel starts making direct public comments that are not guardedly positive regarding Elon Musk. #2 is SpaceX. Specifically something happens with SpaceX; either his management is challenged, real (unknown) SpaceX budget numbers become public and reveal the true state of launch costs, or the pyramid scheme connecting Musk’s different companies, to include the China Connection gets some sunlight.
Here how I "vision" the incoming development: regulator FINALLY declares the Autopilot dangerous (never mind those 5 years of investigation) and orders Tesla to stop selling it. Then there will be a follow up liability claim to return those 10k, Tesla was unfairly collecting for this feature. In the meantime, on the Twitter front, Musk is forced to buy the company for $50/share and nobody is going to help him to finance the deal.
Right after that, most of those, owing Tesla for 2 years and longer will ask for full price back, because Tesla has misled them + anyone damaged in an accident involved Tesla, resulting in the bankruptcy of Tesla US and separation of Tesla China.
Tesla shareholders will suit Musk for damages, taking over Twitter and SpaceX and defaulting Musk himself. Musk will escape via Mexico back to the South Africa, seeking for asylum. Later will get rich again while writing books about “fooling stupid Americans for 20 years”…
Have we become so lazy that we won't drive a car?
It's just that he's more than just cars. THAT's the hard part to figure out. I am astounded at the stock price, however. The PE of 105 is crazy.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-offloads-nearly-7-billion-in-tesla-stock-11660098780?mod=home-page
Leave the poor man alone. Can't you see he is a tortured soul just trying to save the world.
I couldn't agree more, doubled my short today before I read this article. Refunds to auto driving may hurt as well.
At some point, hopefully sooner rather than later, states are going to pass laws saying that when a car gets in an accident and "auto pilot" (or any kind of fully automated driving) is on, the driver is presumed to be both "at fault" and "negligent" as a matter of law... THEN... insurance companies will look at autonomous cars as too risky to insure... THEN, not being able to get auto insurance, the market for this nonsense will disappear... THEN... Tesla goes to $0.
Can't happen soon enough.
Saylor is the controlling shareholder of Mircostrategy.
Knowing the "that" of something doesn't have much value in investing unless we know the "when". Not sure what Elons's end game is, but looks like he is working along side folks like Trump, Ellison and Thiel, bet against Musk at your own peril.
The question is, (IMO), WHO is "supporting" TSLA (and specifically Musk), through all these years of ascension? Who is the "poster boy" of EVs? Who is NASA's savior in the "space race"? Who has launched Starlink sats around the globe for WiFi? (And...?) I suspect TSLA is "protected," as a "National Treasure" corp.: "Too Big to Fail." Anyone remember Jubilation T. Cornpone?
Today Tesla is getting some benefits from the “Inflation reduction act”. When that runs it’s course then you may be right. It seems to me that Fundamentals don’t matter much right now. If we get a favorable inflation print it will be off to the races. Oil is being manipulated by the WH so there is no reason they couldn’t do this for any of their favored industries and companies. The Greens can’t afford to let Tesla Fail. If he skates on Twitter then assume Biden called his State to get them to go easy on them.
While I like this article for its summary - always useful -, and the author's efforts....
"I’ve always considered in the back of my mind that there’s a chance this company could bizarrely and unexplainably continue to move higher."
My rule is, "Don't tell me 'what', tell me 'WHEN'. Calling the possibility of a downfall is good clicks, but is nothing to invest or de-invest for. This is second or third derivative prediction. Anyone with a math background knows how useless each additional derivative becomes.
Despite the autopilot issues, a good statistical argument can be made that overall Tesla's have a lower accident and death rate than any other luxury brand. And gloating about govt regulatory agencies bearing down strikes me as anathema to rational, free-market investing - because it didn't begin until he began taking shots at Deep State sacred cows. Also, use of the word 'may' marks a bias statement.(my opinion, not fact)
Final point: the competing auto companies have a terrible record of producing reliable electric vehicles. Their efforts are so horrible that their tarnished model names have to be changed every 2-3 years. And as anyone knows who's had an electrical/electronics problem with their gas/diesel vehicles, the electron is the enemy of all auto companies - in many cases they turn you loose and say 'we can't do anything about it' - and no software programmer thinks having an auto company on their CV is anything but a huge negative. Meanwhile, they appear to have forgotten how to make quality gas cars - including engine disasters at places like Toyota, Ford. (remember, Toyota, if you sue me for that statement, 'discovery' may uncover a lot of skeletons! [joke])
i very much agree with the hypothesis here but believe that it is increasingly more about Peak Musk rather than just Peak Tesla ! All your examples are correct but have unmoved many fanatical investors , however his personal behaviours and other venture companies are now ringing many different negative bells... This pending crisis will also cover poor personal governance, like almost all the FANG board driven by egomaniacs and weak Board,s will be seen as a liability in the recession. The Twitter deal will expose the strength of the law, spacex has launch issues which may cost Musk huge sums, or may not even work for a few years . Regulators will not only bring Tesla to heel , as the other auto makers insist on a fair playing field, but other regulators will notice that EVs are not green in a world reliant on nat gas ...within the recessionary depression, governments will cease EV subsidies as they cannot afford it, preferring to subsidise the cost of living crisis. What ashame that so many savings in indexed funds will be wiped out as this value is destroyed!
Good notes…there is definitely reason to consider that we may have escaped the days of ‘Tesla reports terrible news while Elon plays new game with FSD….stock goes up 50%’. That said, I’ve got a few indicators that I think will tell us when we are really in the post Tesla phase. #1 is when Peter Thiel starts making direct public comments that are not guardedly positive regarding Elon Musk. #2 is SpaceX. Specifically something happens with SpaceX; either his management is challenged, real (unknown) SpaceX budget numbers become public and reveal the true state of launch costs, or the pyramid scheme connecting Musk’s different companies, to include the China Connection gets some sunlight.
Here how I "vision" the incoming development: regulator FINALLY declares the Autopilot dangerous (never mind those 5 years of investigation) and orders Tesla to stop selling it. Then there will be a follow up liability claim to return those 10k, Tesla was unfairly collecting for this feature. In the meantime, on the Twitter front, Musk is forced to buy the company for $50/share and nobody is going to help him to finance the deal.
Right after that, most of those, owing Tesla for 2 years and longer will ask for full price back, because Tesla has misled them + anyone damaged in an accident involved Tesla, resulting in the bankruptcy of Tesla US and separation of Tesla China.
Tesla shareholders will suit Musk for damages, taking over Twitter and SpaceX and defaulting Musk himself. Musk will escape via Mexico back to the South Africa, seeking for asylum. Later will get rich again while writing books about “fooling stupid Americans for 20 years”…
Anyway, just my 2 cents.