Independence Requires Skepticism

Happy Fourth of July to all of my kind readers.

Happy Fourth of July to all of my kind readers.

Today, when thinking independence, most Americans celebrate by farting hot dogs, guzzling Busch Light on speedboats while blasting “Free Bird”, pointing fireworks at one another and lighting them and, occasionally, thinking about our Founding Fathers telling the most powerful government on Earth to politely go fuck themselves.

Lately, as I’ve written, I’ve been thinking about a different kind of independence: the independence to think for yourself.

It’s the reason I write this blog and am confident I’ll always have something different than the next guy to say…because I am not afraid to think for myself and stand by my opinions, or lack thereof if I just don’t know how I feel about a topic. I’m also not afraid of being wrong.

The reason I write isn’t because I enjoy being a contrarian. Contrary to popular belief, I don’t wake up every morning wondering how I can disagree with CNBC. Being outside the consensus is uncomfortable because you’re wrong in public when you’re wrong, and when you’re right, people usually pretend they believed it all along. I’ve learned that the hard way.

This blog exists because I’ve spent years watching narratives get manufactured, repeated, recycled, and eventually accepted as fact. I’ve been fascinated (read: disgusted and ashamed) by the gap between what we’re told to believe and what’s actually happening. For me, the learning about how the mainstream media worked in the U.S. over the last decade was equally as horrifying as learning how monetary policy and our economy really works. There’s nothing intellectually honest about either.

So I spend my time trying to poke holes through everything, like a contestant playing the old Punch a Bunch game on the Price is Right.

Sometimes that has meant questioning trillion dollar valuations while everyone else is buying because “stocks only go up.” Sometimes it’s meant asking uncomfortable questions about monetary policy while central bankers assure us they have everything under control. Sometimes it’s meant wandering into political or cultural territory simply because everybody seemed strangely afraid to ask obvious questions.

I’m not interested in being anti establishment for the sake of it. That’s just another tribe. And frankly, I see these people online too. If you don’t look closely you could mistake me for one of them just because a number of my views happen to wind up being anti-establishment after examining the evidence. But that’s not me and I don’t have a schtick.

More and more, I’ve been interested in incentives. Follow the incentives and an awful lot of the world suddenly starts making sense. I’ve been wrong plenty of times. Anybody who tells you otherwise is either lying or deleting old tweets. But I’ve also learned that consensus deserves scrutiny, especially when everybody suddenly seems to agree a little too enthusiastically.

History isn’t exactly overflowing with examples of institutions admitting they got it wrong in real time. The point has never been to live on the fringe for the sake of it. The point is to visit it often enough to make sure reality hasn’t quietly packed its bags and moved there while everyone else was busy applauding the latest narrative.

After all, America itself was born from what many people at the time considered a fringe idea. In 1776, declaring independence from the most powerful empire on Earth wasn’t viewed as prudent. It was viewed as reckless. Dangerous. Even treasonous. Every generation since has had its own version of that story. The abolitionists. The suffragists. The civil rights movement. History has a habit of reminding us that today’s heresy can become tomorrow’s common sense.

That doesn’t mean every unpopular idea is right. But it does mean that consensus, by itself, has never been evidence of truth.

That philosophy applies just as much to investing as it does to life. Markets reward independent thinking over long periods of time. So does life. Neither rewards people for simply memorizing whatever everybody else already believes.

Attention has become the most valuable currency in the world, and the fact that thousands of you choose to spend a piece of yours with me is something I’ll never stop appreciating.

So today, while we’re celebrating the independence our founders fought for nearly 250 years ago, I’m also celebrating something a little more personal.

The independence to think for myself, to ask uncomfortable questions, to admit I’m wrong, to change my mind when facts change and to examine when the establishment narrative actually may be the right one after all.

Today celebrate the independence to tell Wall Street strategists, politicians, central bankers, cable news hosts, and anyone else demanding your unquestioning loyalty that you’ll make up your own damn mind. If this little corner of the internet has helped you do that, even once, then every word I’ve written has been worth it.

Happy Fourth, and thank you, sincerely, for reading.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.