The big drops you list in the past were all for very different reasons, it seems dangerous to try to relate them to the disasters currently in front of us, eg. record government national debt, insane spending on themselves and their millions of welfare-dependent, zero-skills clients, now pouring across our borders, appalling general education of the dumbest population on record, poking nuclear armed Russia, not properly backing Israel against the 7th century lunatics working to get nukes by Christmas, oh, China on the front foot like never before, Democrats cheating another election etc etc
Not trying to defend any of the crazed humans on either side, however, one must consider fundamentalist/evangelical christians in the US (of which I was a part for 40 years): they truly believe (even the most moderate of them) that the US is a Christian nation, that PACs in Washington will help Christ's return and they embrace zionism because they truly believe they can 'force' the 2nd coming! No matter if 'infidels' perish or a people are subject genocide. Israel can do no wrong (check out Lee Fang's expose of APAC in American churches, also look into the zionist sponsership of a guy called James Scofield who came up with the 'rapture' in the early 1900s after being courted by the Vanderbilts in NYC/London). Native tribes that populated the US are an example of their best work. Planned Parenthood installed on every reservation to make sure!
They believe in manifest destiny. They read the words of Christ "Pray for your enemies and love one another" while celebrating the destruction of innocent human beings. Theirs is a message of destruction while Christs' message is one of unity. Currently, the Chinese, Russians and everyone in the middle east (except Jews, of course) must be destroyed.
The christian fundamentalists are so dumb/brainwashed they have no clue that actual Christians live there! Their so-called brothers and sisters...and they don't even see how the us government literally crushes all other governments/peoples.
Some are, in fact, dumb as you say, Mrs. Bucket. Many, however, many are completely deceived in their self-righteousness while others are simply blind to their own hate and ultimate self destruction.
Chris, excellent piece. I don't see the let up in a bull market because of the level of deceit not just by those controlling the data but those that promote it and those that believe it. Looks just like the covid trick to me but, like you, what do I know? I've had to unlearn so much that I believed and am truly grateful to be alive and thankful for the full life I have had thus far and still enjoying the ride, even if I've made countless mistakes.
PS I'm convinced that having a little pot of gold for safekeeping is prudent. A stash of alcohol and some medical supplies as well. And, yes, my Bible.
Continue the great work and the laughs that you sprinkle along the way!
I was a dispy for many years, and realized around 7-8 years ago it really doesn’t add up. I just wonder how they’re feeling as they support Israel as they kill so many innocents.
i grew up around über-religious stuff, but last time I checked there are about 20, maybe 25 of them left at max. most are in urns, coffins or nursing homes. maybe in your particular place it's diff but I don't see the 700 Klub as boogeyman anymore, staying worried about them is kinda idk...Jerry Falwell has been dead for a minute is all I'm saying. biggest problem where I am is unhoused drug addicts/alcoholics starting dumpster fires (yes, I do have pictures I personally took) threatening ppl w physical harm as they feel, and EBT-toting folks who need to be on Duolingo at least 8 hours a day. I mean tons of them bruh and every month more. I know this since I get called to help them at checkouts as my price gouging bosses keep us staffed low. but my jefes get theirs when Harris/Walz price freeze their azz. hell I'll probably be out there on the street with em after 4 yrs of that krewe in power but not fitting into any group favored by the D's I won't need to apply for EBT lol. MrsBucket had it right, I worry about the problems on my doorstep today, not ones that were relevant years ago.
I got my ass handed to me on a platter trying to short this market. Trying to short this one is like stepping into the wrestling ring with a fat, old champion. You know one day he is going to keel over. It’s inevitable. But in the meantime, that mean SOB has a thousand ways to cause you immense pain and make you tap out. And when you do, he celebrates with a JD and Krispy Creme donut. It's just not worth my while. I won't be stepping into that ring again anytime soon, if ever.
The only thing we got wrong is the timing. So did Michael Burry. Until he didn’t.
What we got correct is PMs. And for those who had the foresight to ramp up purchases in the 2019-2022 timeframe, we have had lovely returns, minimized our risk, added many ounces, the dividends will be apparent over the next 5-7 years.
I think there’s always a bull and bear case for “where the market could go from here”. After all, bubbles can go from crazy overvalued to insane overvalued to “Japan 1989” overvalued. Stocks can always go up 30% or 40%.
Same on the downside. Bear markets can grind lower than anyone thinks. From pessimism to despair to rock bottom to 40% down from even there.
These exercises in market narration seem like minor forms of fairy tales but without the literary/mythic appeal.
What about this question:
What is the market actually worth — from a cash flow/net present value perspective ? Making some assumptions about long-term trends in economy productivity, revenue growth (with inflation), profit margins, population growth, GDP growth ,etc etc.
Seems like that would ground the fairy tales in at least a baseline of hard and tangible assumptions.
I subscribed to Luke's Forest For The Trees newsletter for about a year. Pricey, but I learned a lot, and he finds stories I didn't often see elsewhere. He definitely has a point of view!
The big drops you list in the past were all for very different reasons, it seems dangerous to try to relate them to the disasters currently in front of us, eg. record government national debt, insane spending on themselves and their millions of welfare-dependent, zero-skills clients, now pouring across our borders, appalling general education of the dumbest population on record, poking nuclear armed Russia, not properly backing Israel against the 7th century lunatics working to get nukes by Christmas, oh, China on the front foot like never before, Democrats cheating another election etc etc
Not trying to defend any of the crazed humans on either side, however, one must consider fundamentalist/evangelical christians in the US (of which I was a part for 40 years): they truly believe (even the most moderate of them) that the US is a Christian nation, that PACs in Washington will help Christ's return and they embrace zionism because they truly believe they can 'force' the 2nd coming! No matter if 'infidels' perish or a people are subject genocide. Israel can do no wrong (check out Lee Fang's expose of APAC in American churches, also look into the zionist sponsership of a guy called James Scofield who came up with the 'rapture' in the early 1900s after being courted by the Vanderbilts in NYC/London). Native tribes that populated the US are an example of their best work. Planned Parenthood installed on every reservation to make sure!
They believe in manifest destiny. They read the words of Christ "Pray for your enemies and love one another" while celebrating the destruction of innocent human beings. Theirs is a message of destruction while Christs' message is one of unity. Currently, the Chinese, Russians and everyone in the middle east (except Jews, of course) must be destroyed.
The christian fundamentalists are so dumb/brainwashed they have no clue that actual Christians live there! Their so-called brothers and sisters...and they don't even see how the us government literally crushes all other governments/peoples.
Some are, in fact, dumb as you say, Mrs. Bucket. Many, however, many are completely deceived in their self-righteousness while others are simply blind to their own hate and ultimate self destruction.
Chris, excellent piece. I don't see the let up in a bull market because of the level of deceit not just by those controlling the data but those that promote it and those that believe it. Looks just like the covid trick to me but, like you, what do I know? I've had to unlearn so much that I believed and am truly grateful to be alive and thankful for the full life I have had thus far and still enjoying the ride, even if I've made countless mistakes.
PS I'm convinced that having a little pot of gold for safekeeping is prudent. A stash of alcohol and some medical supplies as well. And, yes, my Bible.
Continue the great work and the laughs that you sprinkle along the way!
I was a dispy for many years, and realized around 7-8 years ago it really doesn’t add up. I just wonder how they’re feeling as they support Israel as they kill so many innocents.
what is a dispy?
So many innocents. yes.
Sorry, dispensationalist.😉
i grew up around über-religious stuff, but last time I checked there are about 20, maybe 25 of them left at max. most are in urns, coffins or nursing homes. maybe in your particular place it's diff but I don't see the 700 Klub as boogeyman anymore, staying worried about them is kinda idk...Jerry Falwell has been dead for a minute is all I'm saying. biggest problem where I am is unhoused drug addicts/alcoholics starting dumpster fires (yes, I do have pictures I personally took) threatening ppl w physical harm as they feel, and EBT-toting folks who need to be on Duolingo at least 8 hours a day. I mean tons of them bruh and every month more. I know this since I get called to help them at checkouts as my price gouging bosses keep us staffed low. but my jefes get theirs when Harris/Walz price freeze their azz. hell I'll probably be out there on the street with em after 4 yrs of that krewe in power but not fitting into any group favored by the D's I won't need to apply for EBT lol. MrsBucket had it right, I worry about the problems on my doorstep today, not ones that were relevant years ago.
I got my ass handed to me on a platter trying to short this market. Trying to short this one is like stepping into the wrestling ring with a fat, old champion. You know one day he is going to keel over. It’s inevitable. But in the meantime, that mean SOB has a thousand ways to cause you immense pain and make you tap out. And when you do, he celebrates with a JD and Krispy Creme donut. It's just not worth my while. I won't be stepping into that ring again anytime soon, if ever.
I'm glad I got a subscription to this channel.. fyi
Thanks. It's nice that you're here.
Brilliant man, very interesting thoughts.
I found the video to be informative, realistic, and a little bit terrifying. Though, I don't think anyone is nearly scared enough.
The only thing we got wrong is the timing. So did Michael Burry. Until he didn’t.
What we got correct is PMs. And for those who had the foresight to ramp up purchases in the 2019-2022 timeframe, we have had lovely returns, minimized our risk, added many ounces, the dividends will be apparent over the next 5-7 years.
I think there’s always a bull and bear case for “where the market could go from here”. After all, bubbles can go from crazy overvalued to insane overvalued to “Japan 1989” overvalued. Stocks can always go up 30% or 40%.
Same on the downside. Bear markets can grind lower than anyone thinks. From pessimism to despair to rock bottom to 40% down from even there.
These exercises in market narration seem like minor forms of fairy tales but without the literary/mythic appeal.
What about this question:
What is the market actually worth — from a cash flow/net present value perspective ? Making some assumptions about long-term trends in economy productivity, revenue growth (with inflation), profit margins, population growth, GDP growth ,etc etc.
Seems like that would ground the fairy tales in at least a baseline of hard and tangible assumptions.
I never see that discussed in podcasts or posts.
This guy was awesome
I subscribed to Luke's Forest For The Trees newsletter for about a year. Pricey, but I learned a lot, and he finds stories I didn't often see elsewhere. He definitely has a point of view!
Interesting. I also subscribed and found no actionable ideas. I like my bald idiot. I'm bald too.