I like George perspective on the US and thoughts on it being a derivative of asset bubble. I wish he talked more specifics on structural vs cyclical inflation? He’s vague and mentions % but there is nothing really tradeable here on how he thinks inflation plays out. Where’s the reasoning and specifics on why he believes inflation comes down then another wave comes?
Black swan event: how is he positioned to hedge this? Which black swan is more likely based on his research? The food or energy? Very interesting he doesn’t think it’ll be financial black swan (which I think is obvious and likely given all the debt and leverage in the system).
Agree with you that we haven’t seen the economic impact of the rate hikes and tighter liquidity environment but it’s needed to weed out ZIRP zombie companies and losers that depend too much on cheap money and ample liquidity.
Don’t agree with George that Fed will pause or pivot, they made themselves clear they will keep rates for longer. This is no longer Arthur Burns Powell but Volcker Powell and Volcker specifically said a big lesson from the 1970s and 1980s inflation is to keep rates higher for longer and not pivot too soon. Because of the pivot Volcker had to keep tight monetary policy for over a decade to crush inflation and specifically inflation expectations.
Fed won’t reverse course, they want a slowdown. They will reverse course if something breaks or “inflation sucks but what sucks more is losing my job!”—that is what I’m going to position for them go levered long once such a pivot happens but it will take a long while to a point unemployment gets too high.
Regarding Pelosi, this is where I won’t like this whole ultra partisan view. Republicans have been visiting Taiwan before Pelosi btw. Bush started strong foreign policy against China, he was the first President to outright say US will come to Taiwan’s 🇹🇼 help militarily. And Pelosi doesn’t answer to Biden as she’s a co-equal branch of government so that’s why Biden didn’t tell her what to do and many Republicans including Mitch supported her visit to Taiwan. Taiwan isn’t investing into the military , and the US is telling them to. China is the one aggressing more if you simply analyze the facts and number of military movements and incursions on Taiwan.
I suggest people study more foreign policy if they don’t understand it as George mentions he doesn’t understand or see the reasoning for Taiwan visit. It’s a strategic priority and Taiwan was designated a major NATO ally. There is a lot of foreign policy history here and we need to be united against China as Republicans and Democrats have been, please don’t be partisan here and just criticize the “left” without seeing how many Republicans have angered China visiting Taiwan before the Pelosi trip. And China hates Pelosi because she went to Tiananmen Square and held up a banner for democracy 🤣
Anyway, nice to hear different perspectives but China doesn’t want war right now. But I do like Dalio’s book and read a lot of his and Bridgewater’s works. Regarding the central planning and thinking, yes Chinese see that as a positive and do prioritize the collective as societal harmony is a big cultural aspect of China (I’ve lived and worked there across multiple cities). I’ll never forget when my Shanghai gf said America’s two party system is not good for long term planning because you guys keep fighting each other instead of solving societal problems. Interesting perspective.
Is that why Desantis pulled that migrant stunt wasting Florida taxpayer money? He is bringing attention to the problem instead of bringing attention to a solution and rally ppl behind the solution vs the problem? Why are we so fixated on problems and infighting instead of working together to actually solve America’s problems?
Partisanship is getting worst and very bad for America, it’s a big reason we are a declining nation as Dalio points out in his book. So yes a civil war could happen in the future.
I believe the problem is in some of these cities declaring themselves 'sanctuary cities'. They had the luxury of doing so while being distant enough from the border to not be directly affected. Perhaps the DeSantis' action was a solution to the 'sanctuary' issue.
With regards to visits to Taiwan, while you are correct in pointing out that it's been done by both sides, I see the present age as more globally charged and on the brink than in the past.
Not a political expert at all so please correct me if I'm wrong.
You're right, from America's perspective Pelosi's visit is seen as escalation (since she's the 3rd in line). To China it is definitely escalation, not only because women are not seen as equals in China, but also because Pelosi disrespected China when she visited Tiananmen Square decades ago. Anyway, power is only respected if its wielded, Bush did it and now Pelosi.
It also exposed China's empty rhetoric if you were following the tensions and all it did was give a nice swing opportunity on the dip. China backed off and did nothing, yea sure they did some more military drills but if you look at who has been escalating more is it and always has been China as they have increased their military incursions to drones, etc. over the past years to test Taiwan's defenses.
The US, like we told Ukraine, gave advice to Taiwan to spend more on their military. Look how it's played out for Ukraine for listening to USA and training under our superior military (I grew up on military bases in Asia to Europe, we have training on mission command, delegating decision making to NCOs, etc.--DO NOT listen to the far right wing / Russia propaganda dissing our military and how "woke and weak" we are...LMAO that literally has zero substance and just stokes a partisan/bias against gays and wokeness)
Regarding the sanctuary cities, America is a country of immigration, we never had issues with legal immigration until the Chinese came pouring in, then we decided that we needed to do quotas. But people forget America is a melting pot, yes demographics will change but that is what makes us the most powerful country in the world. I'm very happy Google to Microsoft are run by super talented Indian-Americans. We want the world's smartest and brightest to come here but not the ones who would cause issues and troubles. So yes, we do need to solve illegal immigration in a humane way. I don't know, I'm more sympathetic to it because my parents escaped the Vietnam War when communism won, I'm super grateful and most of my family are Republicans because Republicans are strongest against communism. They are all tax-paying productive citizens in American society, who invest and spend to help communities and economies grow.
Immigration also keeps our costs low as they do jobs no American usually would do and these immigrants deserve a legal path to citizenship, they are productive workers in our society who are helping solve problems. Farmers need them, our way of life depends on strong immigration policy from bottom to top--the hardest working to the brightest.
But doing stunts and lying/misleading these poor immigrants is just bad taste, yes you are highlighting the problem but can we get together and focus on a solution?
Because we're fighting over this for so long and it's just going to keep dividing us when both sides have valid concerns. Democracy doesn't work if we don't work together, otherwise we will slip towards authoritarianism because multiple party system is not getting things done (many countries have gone down this path--Poland, Hungary, now maybe Italy) and their rights and constitution gets eroded. Look into Hungary and what's happening there, that can't happen in America, no one party or person should ever be able to consolidate that much power (that'll lead to Putin and Xi, where loyalty is rewarded instead of merit).
-"He is bringing attention to the problem instead of bringing attention to a solution and rally ppl behind the solution vs the problem?" - that is a very good point, very nuanced (specifically "bringing attention to a solution") and we need theatrics and solutions to move forward, not just theatrics. That said, I get that Florida can't arbitrarily manage the border since it's a Federal issue and it was 'red meat' for his base, so it's not surprising.
-Regarding China and Pelosi...you are spot on about the partisanship / fair play as well as the issue of the Speaker of the House being a member of a co-equal brand of government. I am no fan of Speaker Pelosi, but take the personalities out of it and it is clear that we do not want China dictating when it is okay for the US Speaker of the House of Representatives to visit an economic partner (and shadow ally / friend) of the US no matter how provocative they frame it. I tend to agree with George on most issues but strongly disagree with him here. Looking at this from the CCP perspective, it would have been political hay and more provocation for war if the number 3 in succession as Leader of the United States had changed her visit in the face of Chinese protests (as the Chinese would have seen the change as clear indication that the US was further along the decline slide than expected). I see the Chinese actions as both long term planning but also constant tests to determine where the balance of real power in the region is. They refer to us as a paper tiger, but they know that is not true...yet. We look at Taiwan as a 24 hour news cycle 'just breaking' story no matter how many times in a row it happens. They look at recovering Taiwan as a long term campaign run under national policy and a joint political-military strategy.
yea imagine if we backed down and kow towed to China's threats...that would be bad and we would look a lot less powerful and more power-less. It would embolden China and we don't want that. Now Taiwan is spending and increasing their military budget and defense, it got the result we wanted (and probably the economic benefit as well).
The goal is to get back our trade influence, the more we trade and depend on each other, such alliances will be useful to keep China in check. So we need to get and form a new TPP that Trump got us out of because Bush and Obama worked on that trade agreement to counter China. We need to look at it not only militarily but economically as well.
Thanks for the link to the podcast. I haven't read your post yet, I just looked for the link first! I will both read your post and watch the podcast later. I'm really curious about what happened with the mayo!?!
I am a BIG George Gammon fan. I've learned a lot by watching his youtube videos.
I'm also your big fan too, but yes, I do appreciate less (*#$* language!
What China is doing isn't a "head scratcher" if you'd just take the time and effrot to understand Chinese history and "Face Saving" culture that permeates Asia. China is not preparing for war. China is a nothingburger. China is a doomed nation with the fastest aging population in the world that is about to experience the largest demographics collapse history has ever seen. China won't even EXIST as we know it within 10 years. Nigeria will have a larger population than the ENTIRETY of mainland China by 2050.
I really think you need to stop acting like China is a threat or even an important country to talk about. It's not. China is a fucking joke -- it's a circus! And it's hilarious to me that Westerners -- through a Western lens -- not only thing these idiots are smarter than they actually are, but think there is actual logic behind their decisions.
China is NOTHING. They're not even worth thinking about or considering anymore. Without US support and protection (which is leaving) China doesn't even have a place on the world stage.
But, but, but...the PRC is at a particularly dangerous juncture. Yes it will implode demographically, but it has the ability to cause a lot of mayhem, death, destruction, etc. That doesn't mean it can't be defeated militarily, see, e.g., Straits of Malacca, 24 miles wide. Close it and oil and trade collapses, as does the PRC...mayhem indeed.
I'm another idiot, but in defense of Naissim Nicholas Taleb, the "Black Swans" being bandied about are what might be better called "Known Unknowns," e.g., if there is a 1/100,000 chance of something happening and the examples above probably are much more likely that that we are only at 4 standard deviations from the mean. 7 is a 1 / 390,682,215,445 chance. The likelihood of something like that is probably a Black Swan event. Just sayin'....
I like George perspective on the US and thoughts on it being a derivative of asset bubble. I wish he talked more specifics on structural vs cyclical inflation? He’s vague and mentions % but there is nothing really tradeable here on how he thinks inflation plays out. Where’s the reasoning and specifics on why he believes inflation comes down then another wave comes?
Black swan event: how is he positioned to hedge this? Which black swan is more likely based on his research? The food or energy? Very interesting he doesn’t think it’ll be financial black swan (which I think is obvious and likely given all the debt and leverage in the system).
Agree with you that we haven’t seen the economic impact of the rate hikes and tighter liquidity environment but it’s needed to weed out ZIRP zombie companies and losers that depend too much on cheap money and ample liquidity.
Don’t agree with George that Fed will pause or pivot, they made themselves clear they will keep rates for longer. This is no longer Arthur Burns Powell but Volcker Powell and Volcker specifically said a big lesson from the 1970s and 1980s inflation is to keep rates higher for longer and not pivot too soon. Because of the pivot Volcker had to keep tight monetary policy for over a decade to crush inflation and specifically inflation expectations.
Fed won’t reverse course, they want a slowdown. They will reverse course if something breaks or “inflation sucks but what sucks more is losing my job!”—that is what I’m going to position for them go levered long once such a pivot happens but it will take a long while to a point unemployment gets too high.
Regarding Pelosi, this is where I won’t like this whole ultra partisan view. Republicans have been visiting Taiwan before Pelosi btw. Bush started strong foreign policy against China, he was the first President to outright say US will come to Taiwan’s 🇹🇼 help militarily. And Pelosi doesn’t answer to Biden as she’s a co-equal branch of government so that’s why Biden didn’t tell her what to do and many Republicans including Mitch supported her visit to Taiwan. Taiwan isn’t investing into the military , and the US is telling them to. China is the one aggressing more if you simply analyze the facts and number of military movements and incursions on Taiwan.
I suggest people study more foreign policy if they don’t understand it as George mentions he doesn’t understand or see the reasoning for Taiwan visit. It’s a strategic priority and Taiwan was designated a major NATO ally. There is a lot of foreign policy history here and we need to be united against China as Republicans and Democrats have been, please don’t be partisan here and just criticize the “left” without seeing how many Republicans have angered China visiting Taiwan before the Pelosi trip. And China hates Pelosi because she went to Tiananmen Square and held up a banner for democracy 🤣
Anyway, nice to hear different perspectives but China doesn’t want war right now. But I do like Dalio’s book and read a lot of his and Bridgewater’s works. Regarding the central planning and thinking, yes Chinese see that as a positive and do prioritize the collective as societal harmony is a big cultural aspect of China (I’ve lived and worked there across multiple cities). I’ll never forget when my Shanghai gf said America’s two party system is not good for long term planning because you guys keep fighting each other instead of solving societal problems. Interesting perspective.
Is that why Desantis pulled that migrant stunt wasting Florida taxpayer money? He is bringing attention to the problem instead of bringing attention to a solution and rally ppl behind the solution vs the problem? Why are we so fixated on problems and infighting instead of working together to actually solve America’s problems?
Partisanship is getting worst and very bad for America, it’s a big reason we are a declining nation as Dalio points out in his book. So yes a civil war could happen in the future.
I believe the problem is in some of these cities declaring themselves 'sanctuary cities'. They had the luxury of doing so while being distant enough from the border to not be directly affected. Perhaps the DeSantis' action was a solution to the 'sanctuary' issue.
With regards to visits to Taiwan, while you are correct in pointing out that it's been done by both sides, I see the present age as more globally charged and on the brink than in the past.
Not a political expert at all so please correct me if I'm wrong.
You're right, from America's perspective Pelosi's visit is seen as escalation (since she's the 3rd in line). To China it is definitely escalation, not only because women are not seen as equals in China, but also because Pelosi disrespected China when she visited Tiananmen Square decades ago. Anyway, power is only respected if its wielded, Bush did it and now Pelosi.
It also exposed China's empty rhetoric if you were following the tensions and all it did was give a nice swing opportunity on the dip. China backed off and did nothing, yea sure they did some more military drills but if you look at who has been escalating more is it and always has been China as they have increased their military incursions to drones, etc. over the past years to test Taiwan's defenses.
The US, like we told Ukraine, gave advice to Taiwan to spend more on their military. Look how it's played out for Ukraine for listening to USA and training under our superior military (I grew up on military bases in Asia to Europe, we have training on mission command, delegating decision making to NCOs, etc.--DO NOT listen to the far right wing / Russia propaganda dissing our military and how "woke and weak" we are...LMAO that literally has zero substance and just stokes a partisan/bias against gays and wokeness)
Regarding the sanctuary cities, America is a country of immigration, we never had issues with legal immigration until the Chinese came pouring in, then we decided that we needed to do quotas. But people forget America is a melting pot, yes demographics will change but that is what makes us the most powerful country in the world. I'm very happy Google to Microsoft are run by super talented Indian-Americans. We want the world's smartest and brightest to come here but not the ones who would cause issues and troubles. So yes, we do need to solve illegal immigration in a humane way. I don't know, I'm more sympathetic to it because my parents escaped the Vietnam War when communism won, I'm super grateful and most of my family are Republicans because Republicans are strongest against communism. They are all tax-paying productive citizens in American society, who invest and spend to help communities and economies grow.
Immigration also keeps our costs low as they do jobs no American usually would do and these immigrants deserve a legal path to citizenship, they are productive workers in our society who are helping solve problems. Farmers need them, our way of life depends on strong immigration policy from bottom to top--the hardest working to the brightest.
But doing stunts and lying/misleading these poor immigrants is just bad taste, yes you are highlighting the problem but can we get together and focus on a solution?
Because we're fighting over this for so long and it's just going to keep dividing us when both sides have valid concerns. Democracy doesn't work if we don't work together, otherwise we will slip towards authoritarianism because multiple party system is not getting things done (many countries have gone down this path--Poland, Hungary, now maybe Italy) and their rights and constitution gets eroded. Look into Hungary and what's happening there, that can't happen in America, no one party or person should ever be able to consolidate that much power (that'll lead to Putin and Xi, where loyalty is rewarded instead of merit).
-"He is bringing attention to the problem instead of bringing attention to a solution and rally ppl behind the solution vs the problem?" - that is a very good point, very nuanced (specifically "bringing attention to a solution") and we need theatrics and solutions to move forward, not just theatrics. That said, I get that Florida can't arbitrarily manage the border since it's a Federal issue and it was 'red meat' for his base, so it's not surprising.
-Regarding China and Pelosi...you are spot on about the partisanship / fair play as well as the issue of the Speaker of the House being a member of a co-equal brand of government. I am no fan of Speaker Pelosi, but take the personalities out of it and it is clear that we do not want China dictating when it is okay for the US Speaker of the House of Representatives to visit an economic partner (and shadow ally / friend) of the US no matter how provocative they frame it. I tend to agree with George on most issues but strongly disagree with him here. Looking at this from the CCP perspective, it would have been political hay and more provocation for war if the number 3 in succession as Leader of the United States had changed her visit in the face of Chinese protests (as the Chinese would have seen the change as clear indication that the US was further along the decline slide than expected). I see the Chinese actions as both long term planning but also constant tests to determine where the balance of real power in the region is. They refer to us as a paper tiger, but they know that is not true...yet. We look at Taiwan as a 24 hour news cycle 'just breaking' story no matter how many times in a row it happens. They look at recovering Taiwan as a long term campaign run under national policy and a joint political-military strategy.
yea imagine if we backed down and kow towed to China's threats...that would be bad and we would look a lot less powerful and more power-less. It would embolden China and we don't want that. Now Taiwan is spending and increasing their military budget and defense, it got the result we wanted (and probably the economic benefit as well).
The goal is to get back our trade influence, the more we trade and depend on each other, such alliances will be useful to keep China in check. So we need to get and form a new TPP that Trump got us out of because Bush and Obama worked on that trade agreement to counter China. We need to look at it not only militarily but economically as well.
Thanks for the link to the podcast. I haven't read your post yet, I just looked for the link first! I will both read your post and watch the podcast later. I'm really curious about what happened with the mayo!?!
I am a BIG George Gammon fan. I've learned a lot by watching his youtube videos.
I'm also your big fan too, but yes, I do appreciate less (*#$* language!
What China is doing isn't a "head scratcher" if you'd just take the time and effrot to understand Chinese history and "Face Saving" culture that permeates Asia. China is not preparing for war. China is a nothingburger. China is a doomed nation with the fastest aging population in the world that is about to experience the largest demographics collapse history has ever seen. China won't even EXIST as we know it within 10 years. Nigeria will have a larger population than the ENTIRETY of mainland China by 2050.
I really think you need to stop acting like China is a threat or even an important country to talk about. It's not. China is a fucking joke -- it's a circus! And it's hilarious to me that Westerners -- through a Western lens -- not only thing these idiots are smarter than they actually are, but think there is actual logic behind their decisions.
China is NOTHING. They're not even worth thinking about or considering anymore. Without US support and protection (which is leaving) China doesn't even have a place on the world stage.
But, but, but...the PRC is at a particularly dangerous juncture. Yes it will implode demographically, but it has the ability to cause a lot of mayhem, death, destruction, etc. That doesn't mean it can't be defeated militarily, see, e.g., Straits of Malacca, 24 miles wide. Close it and oil and trade collapses, as does the PRC...mayhem indeed.
Great discussion. Politicians today can be counted on to make exactly the wrong decision at the wrong time. What a mess.
I'm another idiot, but in defense of Naissim Nicholas Taleb, the "Black Swans" being bandied about are what might be better called "Known Unknowns," e.g., if there is a 1/100,000 chance of something happening and the examples above probably are much more likely that that we are only at 4 standard deviations from the mean. 7 is a 1 / 390,682,215,445 chance. The likelihood of something like that is probably a Black Swan event. Just sayin'....