I like George perspective on the US and thoughts on it being a derivative of asset bubble. I wish he talked more specifics on structural vs cyclical inflation? He’s vague and mentions % but there is nothing really tradeable here on how he thinks inflation plays out. Where’s the reasoning and specifics on why he believes inflation comes down then another wave comes?
Black swan event: how is he positioned to hedge this? Which black swan is more likely based on his research? The food or energy? Very interesting he doesn’t think it’ll be financial black swan (which I think is obvious and likely given all the debt and leverage in the system).
Agree with you that we haven’t seen the economic impact of the rate hikes and tighter liquidity environment but it’s needed to weed out ZIRP zombie companies and losers that depend too much on cheap money and ample liquidity.
Don’t agree with George that Fed will pause or pivot, they made themselves clear they will keep rates for longer. This is no longer Arthur Burns Powell but Volcker Powell and Volcker specifically said a big lesson from the 1970s and 1980s inflation is to keep rates higher for longer and not pivot too soon. Because of the pivot Volcker had to keep tight monetary policy for over a decade to crush inflation and specifically inflation expectations.
Fed won’t reverse course, they want a slowdown. They will reverse course if something breaks or “inflation sucks but what sucks more is losing my job!”—that is what I’m going to position for them go levered long once such a pivot happens but it will take a long while to a point unemployment gets too high.
Regarding Pelosi, this is where I won’t like this whole ultra partisan view. Republicans have been visiting Taiwan before Pelosi btw. Bush started strong foreign policy against China, he was the first President to outright say US will come to Taiwan’s 🇹🇼 help militarily. And Pelosi doesn’t answer to Biden as she’s a co-equal branch of government so that’s why Biden didn’t tell her what to do and many Republicans including Mitch supported her visit to Taiwan. Taiwan isn’t investing into the military , and the US is telling them to. China is the one aggressing more if you simply analyze the facts and number of military movements and incursions on Taiwan.
I suggest people study more foreign policy if they don’t understand it as George mentions he doesn’t understand or see the reasoning for Taiwan visit. It’s a strategic priority and Taiwan was designated a major NATO ally. There is a lot of foreign policy history here and we need to be united against China as Republicans and Democrats have been, please don’t be partisan here and just criticize the “left” without seeing how many Republicans have angered China visiting Taiwan before the Pelosi trip. And China hates Pelosi because she went to Tiananmen Square and held up a banner for democracy 🤣
Anyway, nice to hear different perspectives but China doesn’t want war right now. But I do like Dalio’s book and read a lot of his and Bridgewater’s works. Regarding the central planning and thinking, yes Chinese see that as a positive and do prioritize the collective as societal harmony is a big cultural aspect of China (I’ve lived and worked there across multiple cities). I’ll never forget when my Shanghai gf said America’s two party system is not good for long term planning because you guys keep fighting each other instead of solving societal problems. Interesting perspective.
Is that why Desantis pulled that migrant stunt wasting Florida taxpayer money? He is bringing attention to the problem instead of bringing attention to a solution and rally ppl behind the solution vs the problem? Why are we so fixated on problems and infighting instead of working together to actually solve America’s problems?
Partisanship is getting worst and very bad for America, it’s a big reason we are a declining nation as Dalio points out in his book. So yes a civil war could happen in the future.
Thanks for the link to the podcast. I haven't read your post yet, I just looked for the link first! I will both read your post and watch the podcast later. I'm really curious about what happened with the mayo!?!
I am a BIG George Gammon fan. I've learned a lot by watching his youtube videos.
I'm also your big fan too, but yes, I do appreciate less (*#$* language!
What China is doing isn't a "head scratcher" if you'd just take the time and effrot to understand Chinese history and "Face Saving" culture that permeates Asia. China is not preparing for war. China is a nothingburger. China is a doomed nation with the fastest aging population in the world that is about to experience the largest demographics collapse history has ever seen. China won't even EXIST as we know it within 10 years. Nigeria will have a larger population than the ENTIRETY of mainland China by 2050.
I really think you need to stop acting like China is a threat or even an important country to talk about. It's not. China is a fucking joke -- it's a circus! And it's hilarious to me that Westerners -- through a Western lens -- not only thing these idiots are smarter than they actually are, but think there is actual logic behind their decisions.
China is NOTHING. They're not even worth thinking about or considering anymore. Without US support and protection (which is leaving) China doesn't even have a place on the world stage.
I'm another idiot, but in defense of Naissim Nicholas Taleb, the "Black Swans" being bandied about are what might be better called "Known Unknowns," e.g., if there is a 1/100,000 chance of something happening and the examples above probably are much more likely that that we are only at 4 standard deviations from the mean. 7 is a 1 / 390,682,215,445 chance. The likelihood of something like that is probably a Black Swan event. Just sayin'....
I like George perspective on the US and thoughts on it being a derivative of asset bubble. I wish he talked more specifics on structural vs cyclical inflation? He’s vague and mentions % but there is nothing really tradeable here on how he thinks inflation plays out. Where’s the reasoning and specifics on why he believes inflation comes down then another wave comes?
Black swan event: how is he positioned to hedge this? Which black swan is more likely based on his research? The food or energy? Very interesting he doesn’t think it’ll be financial black swan (which I think is obvious and likely given all the debt and leverage in the system).
Agree with you that we haven’t seen the economic impact of the rate hikes and tighter liquidity environment but it’s needed to weed out ZIRP zombie companies and losers that depend too much on cheap money and ample liquidity.
Don’t agree with George that Fed will pause or pivot, they made themselves clear they will keep rates for longer. This is no longer Arthur Burns Powell but Volcker Powell and Volcker specifically said a big lesson from the 1970s and 1980s inflation is to keep rates higher for longer and not pivot too soon. Because of the pivot Volcker had to keep tight monetary policy for over a decade to crush inflation and specifically inflation expectations.
Fed won’t reverse course, they want a slowdown. They will reverse course if something breaks or “inflation sucks but what sucks more is losing my job!”—that is what I’m going to position for them go levered long once such a pivot happens but it will take a long while to a point unemployment gets too high.
Regarding Pelosi, this is where I won’t like this whole ultra partisan view. Republicans have been visiting Taiwan before Pelosi btw. Bush started strong foreign policy against China, he was the first President to outright say US will come to Taiwan’s 🇹🇼 help militarily. And Pelosi doesn’t answer to Biden as she’s a co-equal branch of government so that’s why Biden didn’t tell her what to do and many Republicans including Mitch supported her visit to Taiwan. Taiwan isn’t investing into the military , and the US is telling them to. China is the one aggressing more if you simply analyze the facts and number of military movements and incursions on Taiwan.
I suggest people study more foreign policy if they don’t understand it as George mentions he doesn’t understand or see the reasoning for Taiwan visit. It’s a strategic priority and Taiwan was designated a major NATO ally. There is a lot of foreign policy history here and we need to be united against China as Republicans and Democrats have been, please don’t be partisan here and just criticize the “left” without seeing how many Republicans have angered China visiting Taiwan before the Pelosi trip. And China hates Pelosi because she went to Tiananmen Square and held up a banner for democracy 🤣
Anyway, nice to hear different perspectives but China doesn’t want war right now. But I do like Dalio’s book and read a lot of his and Bridgewater’s works. Regarding the central planning and thinking, yes Chinese see that as a positive and do prioritize the collective as societal harmony is a big cultural aspect of China (I’ve lived and worked there across multiple cities). I’ll never forget when my Shanghai gf said America’s two party system is not good for long term planning because you guys keep fighting each other instead of solving societal problems. Interesting perspective.
Is that why Desantis pulled that migrant stunt wasting Florida taxpayer money? He is bringing attention to the problem instead of bringing attention to a solution and rally ppl behind the solution vs the problem? Why are we so fixated on problems and infighting instead of working together to actually solve America’s problems?
Partisanship is getting worst and very bad for America, it’s a big reason we are a declining nation as Dalio points out in his book. So yes a civil war could happen in the future.
Thanks for the link to the podcast. I haven't read your post yet, I just looked for the link first! I will both read your post and watch the podcast later. I'm really curious about what happened with the mayo!?!
I am a BIG George Gammon fan. I've learned a lot by watching his youtube videos.
I'm also your big fan too, but yes, I do appreciate less (*#$* language!
What China is doing isn't a "head scratcher" if you'd just take the time and effrot to understand Chinese history and "Face Saving" culture that permeates Asia. China is not preparing for war. China is a nothingburger. China is a doomed nation with the fastest aging population in the world that is about to experience the largest demographics collapse history has ever seen. China won't even EXIST as we know it within 10 years. Nigeria will have a larger population than the ENTIRETY of mainland China by 2050.
I really think you need to stop acting like China is a threat or even an important country to talk about. It's not. China is a fucking joke -- it's a circus! And it's hilarious to me that Westerners -- through a Western lens -- not only thing these idiots are smarter than they actually are, but think there is actual logic behind their decisions.
China is NOTHING. They're not even worth thinking about or considering anymore. Without US support and protection (which is leaving) China doesn't even have a place on the world stage.
Great discussion. Politicians today can be counted on to make exactly the wrong decision at the wrong time. What a mess.
I'm another idiot, but in defense of Naissim Nicholas Taleb, the "Black Swans" being bandied about are what might be better called "Known Unknowns," e.g., if there is a 1/100,000 chance of something happening and the examples above probably are much more likely that that we are only at 4 standard deviations from the mean. 7 is a 1 / 390,682,215,445 chance. The likelihood of something like that is probably a Black Swan event. Just sayin'....
I hope both of you get better and solve your issues with your eyes...