Mar 6, 2022·edited Mar 6, 2022Liked by Quoth the Raven
My father was born in 1940 - just before the US entered WWII. He lived through quite the almost 3/4 century of American dominance. For years he dismissed the gloom and doomers saying things will always work out. Right now he is deeply concerned about where we are headed and says the worse is yet to come. For my father to say this is very telling...in a round about way he is saying the party is over. I agree with QTR...we need to be ready for the hard times. They are coming. Just remember we have a government that is run by WEF so anything they do is NOT going to be for our best interests. Better buy some gold folks...and hunker down...
I am fighting the urge to be cynical on every front. Just be aware that just because they destroyed our stability, there is more to life than money, and we should all be doing what we can to protect those things as the economic war plays out.
I am coming close to retirement and am worried that I should start moving more equity allocation to cash. I have been having the same fears you just wrote about and don’t want my retirement to be cut in half again like in 2009.
Thanks for writing this as I might start slowly allocating to cash or commodity/gold/silver funds this week.
That feeling you have is dread. We see the water receding and we want to yell at everyone on the beach to get to higher ground, just leave the god damn chairs and the lotion, go go go! But people don’t want to hear that, they want to keep sucking down the solo cup Margaritas and talking about the real tragedies- like how Pam got sand in hers and oh!-Bridgerton couldn’t possibly be the same without that hot black guy returning. Meanwhile we’re the assholes for for trying to warn people.
For the doom and gloom. We warned on the pandemic, on inflation, on oil, doesn’t matter if you were right-no one wants to really hear it.
Maybe it’s not a bad thing. I was 20 and 6 months into my first business when the newspaper you included came out. Everyone stopped paying me in what seemed like overnight. Taught me a lot of important lessons about credit, cash flow, choosing customers. Sometimes people got lessons they need to learn to make them better for the next go round.
Maybe one of the other commenters had it right, it’s not always all about money. Maybe we just position ourselves and our families with some sandbags and then go back to the party.
any actions by the Fed, *anything* they do will ultimately make the pain worse and last longer. I understand that markets always over-correct; did you omit this fact because you don't want to appear to be a super doom-and-gloomer? I wonder where Taleb has his money right now.
Yesterday evening while viewing some news clips about Ukraine on YT, the suggested videos on the side included some short clips from Margin Call (2011). Watched several of them and I gotta say, Chris' discussion today of what may be coming is like watching that movie all over again. (Those telepathic algorithms at YT must be working pretty darn good.)
//On an optimistic note, Zhou Bai-Den is dispatching Kamala back to Europe to "help" unscrew the mess they created in UKR. What could go wrong? ~s~//
Boom and bust cycles have that name because busts follow booms. Most investors think they can get out before the bust. Most are wrong. Volatility allows us with long-term perspectives to build our wealth following the graphic shown above.
The next won't be the worst of my lifetime. Imagine driving from the Midwest to California during the Arab oil embargo. Gas stations had 5 or 6 gallon max purchases. That didn't go very far in a 70's V8 car. Or the early 80's stagflation, when a 12% mortgage rate was the best you could do.
The Fed is going to tighten and then the pain will become too great for the politically correct and they will remove Powell. This will allow Brainard to take the controls and she will steer an extremely dovish course.
Can I get unbanned from your TWTR feed? SarraXKCD. FWIW inflation is great for the people with Socialized residential first mortgages of which there were +/- $1.094 trillion Q1 '21. they are getting much cheaper to pay off. When all this forbearance nonsense ends and the foreclosures start not because people don't have jobs, they just found other uses for the money and now are $200 short. When you hand over a light envelope your hand get hit with a hammer. The "banks" just toss you in the foreclosure pile. All the people who made or thought they were making 10x on their money by holding one home and buying another to sell the first a year later with a $100k gain on $20k down gonna be surprised when all those other geniuses try to get liquid and there are 6 months of inventory on the market...
Mr. Raven, I disagree that inflation wasn't a problem before the last 5 months. The fed was denying it at the time, but i would say inflation has been noticeable for me for the last 10 months minimum. Remember that white house tweet about how Fourth of July cookouts were "only .16 cents more in 2021?
My father was born in 1940 - just before the US entered WWII. He lived through quite the almost 3/4 century of American dominance. For years he dismissed the gloom and doomers saying things will always work out. Right now he is deeply concerned about where we are headed and says the worse is yet to come. For my father to say this is very telling...in a round about way he is saying the party is over. I agree with QTR...we need to be ready for the hard times. They are coming. Just remember we have a government that is run by WEF so anything they do is NOT going to be for our best interests. Better buy some gold folks...and hunker down...
I am fighting the urge to be cynical on every front. Just be aware that just because they destroyed our stability, there is more to life than money, and we should all be doing what we can to protect those things as the economic war plays out.
There are a lot of market participants in the Anxiety, Denial, and Fear stage. Long ways to go!
You call it a hurricane. I think what the US is doing is launching an economic nuke, and the fallout with rain back on us.
But really, isnt it different this time? 😵💫
I am coming close to retirement and am worried that I should start moving more equity allocation to cash. I have been having the same fears you just wrote about and don’t want my retirement to be cut in half again like in 2009.
Thanks for writing this as I might start slowly allocating to cash or commodity/gold/silver funds this week.
I see nothing encouraging here at all. I believe a 30% downside is coming hard and fast.
I can see that guy in the vest.
That feeling you have is dread. We see the water receding and we want to yell at everyone on the beach to get to higher ground, just leave the god damn chairs and the lotion, go go go! But people don’t want to hear that, they want to keep sucking down the solo cup Margaritas and talking about the real tragedies- like how Pam got sand in hers and oh!-Bridgerton couldn’t possibly be the same without that hot black guy returning. Meanwhile we’re the assholes for for trying to warn people.
For the doom and gloom. We warned on the pandemic, on inflation, on oil, doesn’t matter if you were right-no one wants to really hear it.
Maybe it’s not a bad thing. I was 20 and 6 months into my first business when the newspaper you included came out. Everyone stopped paying me in what seemed like overnight. Taught me a lot of important lessons about credit, cash flow, choosing customers. Sometimes people got lessons they need to learn to make them better for the next go round.
Maybe one of the other commenters had it right, it’s not always all about money. Maybe we just position ourselves and our families with some sandbags and then go back to the party.
Maybe it never will be the same on Bridgerton.
Maybe that’s ok.
any actions by the Fed, *anything* they do will ultimately make the pain worse and last longer. I understand that markets always over-correct; did you omit this fact because you don't want to appear to be a super doom-and-gloomer? I wonder where Taleb has his money right now.
Yesterday evening while viewing some news clips about Ukraine on YT, the suggested videos on the side included some short clips from Margin Call (2011). Watched several of them and I gotta say, Chris' discussion today of what may be coming is like watching that movie all over again. (Those telepathic algorithms at YT must be working pretty darn good.)
//On an optimistic note, Zhou Bai-Den is dispatching Kamala back to Europe to "help" unscrew the mess they created in UKR. What could go wrong? ~s~//
Boom and bust cycles have that name because busts follow booms. Most investors think they can get out before the bust. Most are wrong. Volatility allows us with long-term perspectives to build our wealth following the graphic shown above.
The next won't be the worst of my lifetime. Imagine driving from the Midwest to California during the Arab oil embargo. Gas stations had 5 or 6 gallon max purchases. That didn't go very far in a 70's V8 car. Or the early 80's stagflation, when a 12% mortgage rate was the best you could do.
The Fed is going to tighten and then the pain will become too great for the politically correct and they will remove Powell. This will allow Brainard to take the controls and she will steer an extremely dovish course.
Can I get unbanned from your TWTR feed? SarraXKCD. FWIW inflation is great for the people with Socialized residential first mortgages of which there were +/- $1.094 trillion Q1 '21. they are getting much cheaper to pay off. When all this forbearance nonsense ends and the foreclosures start not because people don't have jobs, they just found other uses for the money and now are $200 short. When you hand over a light envelope your hand get hit with a hammer. The "banks" just toss you in the foreclosure pile. All the people who made or thought they were making 10x on their money by holding one home and buying another to sell the first a year later with a $100k gain on $20k down gonna be surprised when all those other geniuses try to get liquid and there are 6 months of inventory on the market...
Mr. Raven, I disagree that inflation wasn't a problem before the last 5 months. The fed was denying it at the time, but i would say inflation has been noticeable for me for the last 10 months minimum. Remember that white house tweet about how Fourth of July cookouts were "only .16 cents more in 2021?
Where does Dave Portnoy stand on this now that we need his financial expertise more than ever?
Great Article