I can't believe Biden hasn't been refilling the reserve. I can only hope that they 'know' that war is not inevitable, but I've lost faith in the ruling elite. We need to come up with a better version of democracy before the Idiocracy ushers in dictatorship to 'fix' everything.
The real deal here is not so much the dollar collapse (it's not a matter of if but when) but what is going to happen to ordinary Americans when the dollar is worthless? The good news is the US government will default and go away (cannot pay the interest) but the flip side means starvation, destitution, 3rd world conditions for the USA. Folks laugh at me saying we are too advanced for that to happen but it will have to...for every action there is a reaction. You cannot go off the gold standard, rack up massive debt and expect everything to be OK. We are in an unprecedented situation as no other empire (Greece, Rome, etc.) had this unique circumstance. Most empires would cancel the debt and re-align. Not the US. The debt keeps going and going....Seriously...we are headed for some very bad times...
Apr 5, 2023·edited Apr 5, 2023Liked by Quoth the Raven
How much damage did we do to our country's position in the world with the Covid charade? India went with preventative care, doing the opposite of what Pfauci said to do. We have 4% of the world's population and had 15% of the covid deaths. India has 3x our population and much less deaths. While we orchestrated a media campaign against Ivermectin, India used it. Now we look like the global greedy, in the pocket of global corporations, fools we are. Do we all hail Pfauci, the greatest bureaucrat of all time, who single handedly destroyed the USA?
Isn't this why we are loathed more than usual at this time?
Of the many strong points this article makes, Biden’s sell-off of the US oil reserve causes me the biggest worry. This is because the dollar’s position as reserve currency has always been backstopped by the threat of military action for non-compliant countries (see Nordstream bombing as ex. A).
If our military threat is diminished for lack of oil reserves, well, that could be the tipping point to loss of reserve currency status.
I think it’s more like a 100-year fiat experiment, with a step up in 1971, then another in 2008, then another in 2020. I think the differentiated risks this time are wide perception of our reduced power post Afghanistan withdraw in summer of 2021 and the alarming lack of competence at Treasury (and government more widely). And I think that just because MSM picks up on a trend, albeit late and incompletely, doesn’t invalidate that trend -- particularly something as slow-moving as reserve currency status. Keep up the good work here.
Thank you for highlighting this troubling trend. Zoltan Pozsar has been aligned with your view and has also written extensively on it. The time to strengthen one’s hedges against a weaker dollar and loss of reserve currency status is now and not tomorrow. Excellent commentary!
This is going to happen. Slowly and now SUDDENLY. All math, history and human behavior point to it. We've been checkmated, our "leaders" have led us straight off the cliff.
God help those who didn't see it coming - that means most..
Brent assumes the anti-US sentiment will not mobilize all the nations to take action to actively financially destroy the U.S. when they feel they can.
The US is toothless and insane. The US empire will collapse quickly. It’s reaping and sowing. It’s payback time for all the other countries we demeaned and dominated. And that is a LOT of countries.
FJB yes. However, this has been a 100 year thing escalating dramatically in the last 20 years. It’s all the government people.
Let's consider a silver lining - with the loss of the ability to simply financially strongarm the rest of the world, the US federal government would need to learn to become at least marginally competent again. And with strong foreign adversaries maybe the TLAs can back off from crushing the nuts of its own citizens.
Of course, there's the possibility the cabal decides to take the world down with them...
Great article, nicely written and chocked full of nuggets. I had to re-read to get the full effects of the anesthesia. I really like the reference to gambling and winning 100% of the time. One can use Goldman Sachs as an example where they've boasted how they've never lost money in any trading day. That could only be accomplished by having the trading (gambling) table fixed.
I'm less worried about the raging inflation that's coming. But more worried about what a hegemon does at the end of their life. I see the US lashing out more forcefully and financially at allies and enemies alike in an attempt to retain hegemony. QTR could entitle the next article, "The Last Great Gasp". Or, "How Biden makes Jimmy Carter look like the next coming of the Messiah".
While your thoughts are understandable, I don't think we should be jumping off any buildings yet. The dollar's reserve status was about 85% in the early 70s, dropped to about 45% in the early 90s, jumped back to about 70% in the early 2000s, and is now about 58%. (Source: IMF) So, it has fluctuated greatly over time. The problem with your thesis is, people like "dollaros" because they can spend them anywhere in the world, including China. Try presenting a Ruble or Yuan or rupee to the local market most anywhere in the world (other than their home country) and the vendors are going to take back whatever it is you are buying.
Don't misunderstand, the idiots (I'm looking at you, Donald T. and Joe B.) who decided to foolishly shower my millionaire clients with dead presidents and statesmen (can I write "statesmen" anymore?) have furthered the desire of other nations to move away from dollar trade. However, when it comes to parking their ill gotten gains, Saudi Arabian murderers, Russian Oligarchs, other ME despots, African warlords, Royal royalty, and even the comrades from China, all prefer the red, white, and blue.
While QTR's statement about past doesn't predict the future is absolutely true, methinks it will continue to be true in this case for quite some time.
Even without knowing all the financial numbers, a simple glance at history tells us that no nation stays on top more than 70 years or so on average. We haven’t known real hardship since 1945. We’re due for this reckoning. But the good news is that the people paying attention will survive it. We won’t be top dog afterwards, but neither was Britain after WW2. I believe there’s a Brit or two who are happy and prosperous.
The hubris of the dollar regime shills is very telling. You can see it all unraveling in real time yet they scoff.
I can't believe Biden hasn't been refilling the reserve. I can only hope that they 'know' that war is not inevitable, but I've lost faith in the ruling elite. We need to come up with a better version of democracy before the Idiocracy ushers in dictatorship to 'fix' everything.
The real deal here is not so much the dollar collapse (it's not a matter of if but when) but what is going to happen to ordinary Americans when the dollar is worthless? The good news is the US government will default and go away (cannot pay the interest) but the flip side means starvation, destitution, 3rd world conditions for the USA. Folks laugh at me saying we are too advanced for that to happen but it will have to...for every action there is a reaction. You cannot go off the gold standard, rack up massive debt and expect everything to be OK. We are in an unprecedented situation as no other empire (Greece, Rome, etc.) had this unique circumstance. Most empires would cancel the debt and re-align. Not the US. The debt keeps going and going....Seriously...we are headed for some very bad times...
How much damage did we do to our country's position in the world with the Covid charade? India went with preventative care, doing the opposite of what Pfauci said to do. We have 4% of the world's population and had 15% of the covid deaths. India has 3x our population and much less deaths. While we orchestrated a media campaign against Ivermectin, India used it. Now we look like the global greedy, in the pocket of global corporations, fools we are. Do we all hail Pfauci, the greatest bureaucrat of all time, who single handedly destroyed the USA?
Isn't this why we are loathed more than usual at this time?
your thoughts are exactly right, the shit is plunging toward the fan at record speed.
Of the many strong points this article makes, Biden’s sell-off of the US oil reserve causes me the biggest worry. This is because the dollar’s position as reserve currency has always been backstopped by the threat of military action for non-compliant countries (see Nordstream bombing as ex. A).
If our military threat is diminished for lack of oil reserves, well, that could be the tipping point to loss of reserve currency status.
I think it’s more like a 100-year fiat experiment, with a step up in 1971, then another in 2008, then another in 2020. I think the differentiated risks this time are wide perception of our reduced power post Afghanistan withdraw in summer of 2021 and the alarming lack of competence at Treasury (and government more widely). And I think that just because MSM picks up on a trend, albeit late and incompletely, doesn’t invalidate that trend -- particularly something as slow-moving as reserve currency status. Keep up the good work here.
Thank you for highlighting this troubling trend. Zoltan Pozsar has been aligned with your view and has also written extensively on it. The time to strengthen one’s hedges against a weaker dollar and loss of reserve currency status is now and not tomorrow. Excellent commentary!
This is going to happen. Slowly and now SUDDENLY. All math, history and human behavior point to it. We've been checkmated, our "leaders" have led us straight off the cliff.
God help those who didn't see it coming - that means most..
That's the thing about black swans, they only show up when you stop talking about them...
Brent assumes the anti-US sentiment will not mobilize all the nations to take action to actively financially destroy the U.S. when they feel they can.
The US is toothless and insane. The US empire will collapse quickly. It’s reaping and sowing. It’s payback time for all the other countries we demeaned and dominated. And that is a LOT of countries.
FJB yes. However, this has been a 100 year thing escalating dramatically in the last 20 years. It’s all the government people.
Let's consider a silver lining - with the loss of the ability to simply financially strongarm the rest of the world, the US federal government would need to learn to become at least marginally competent again. And with strong foreign adversaries maybe the TLAs can back off from crushing the nuts of its own citizens.
Of course, there's the possibility the cabal decides to take the world down with them...
Love the gambling analogies. Seems like everything has turned into a casino.
Great article, nicely written and chocked full of nuggets. I had to re-read to get the full effects of the anesthesia. I really like the reference to gambling and winning 100% of the time. One can use Goldman Sachs as an example where they've boasted how they've never lost money in any trading day. That could only be accomplished by having the trading (gambling) table fixed.
I'm less worried about the raging inflation that's coming. But more worried about what a hegemon does at the end of their life. I see the US lashing out more forcefully and financially at allies and enemies alike in an attempt to retain hegemony. QTR could entitle the next article, "The Last Great Gasp". Or, "How Biden makes Jimmy Carter look like the next coming of the Messiah".
While your thoughts are understandable, I don't think we should be jumping off any buildings yet. The dollar's reserve status was about 85% in the early 70s, dropped to about 45% in the early 90s, jumped back to about 70% in the early 2000s, and is now about 58%. (Source: IMF) So, it has fluctuated greatly over time. The problem with your thesis is, people like "dollaros" because they can spend them anywhere in the world, including China. Try presenting a Ruble or Yuan or rupee to the local market most anywhere in the world (other than their home country) and the vendors are going to take back whatever it is you are buying.
Don't misunderstand, the idiots (I'm looking at you, Donald T. and Joe B.) who decided to foolishly shower my millionaire clients with dead presidents and statesmen (can I write "statesmen" anymore?) have furthered the desire of other nations to move away from dollar trade. However, when it comes to parking their ill gotten gains, Saudi Arabian murderers, Russian Oligarchs, other ME despots, African warlords, Royal royalty, and even the comrades from China, all prefer the red, white, and blue.
While QTR's statement about past doesn't predict the future is absolutely true, methinks it will continue to be true in this case for quite some time.
Cheers
Even without knowing all the financial numbers, a simple glance at history tells us that no nation stays on top more than 70 years or so on average. We haven’t known real hardship since 1945. We’re due for this reckoning. But the good news is that the people paying attention will survive it. We won’t be top dog afterwards, but neither was Britain after WW2. I believe there’s a Brit or two who are happy and prosperous.