Trump's Tariff (E)scapegoat

Trump has been handed a strategic "out" from tariffs if he wants it. And he could still renegotiate new trade deals, too.

Today courts decided they wanted to have a say in how the U.S. handles trade policy—specifically, how President Trump imposed tariffs on certain goods under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which gives presidents the authority to impose tariffs for national security reasons.

The court found that extending those tariffs beyond their original scope—like adding new countries or products without going through the same formal process—goes beyond the legal limits of that authority. Translation? Trump’s tariffs are null and void for the time being, while the administration appeals.

Predictably, left wing headlines framed this as a “blow” to Trump’s legacy, a judicial smackdown of his tough-on-trade stance. But this isn’t a mortal wound to Trump’s economic agenda—it might actually be one of the most convenient political gifts he could have asked for at this moment, if he thinks strategically.

Most of these very aggressive tariffs were never meant to be permanent. They were leverage—blunt but effective instruments to force negotiations, draw lines, and signal that the days of America being the global economic doormat were over. Mission accomplished on that front. China, Mexico, the EU—everyone was forced back to the table. But that leverage comes with side effects: higher prices, agitated supply chains, the occasional bad headline about farmers in the Midwest, iPhones getting pricier and general bitching and whining from the left.

But now, thanks to this ruling, Trump has a strategic scapegoat and off-ramp it he wants to use it. If he wants to pivot away from tariffs—or at least scale them back—he can do so without appearing to cave. He can simply shrug and say, “My hands are tied, the courts made the call.”

It’s a ready-made scapegoat. Politically, that’s gold. He doesn’t have to walk back anything, doesn’t have to “admit” tariffs had drawbacks. He just shifts, pivots, and keeps moving—without the wet blanket on the stock market and the media baggage.

If he wants, Trump can now focus all his energy on crafting the next round of trade deals without the distraction of defending the tariffs. He can take credit for recalibrating global trade, say the tariffs did their job, and still claim the mantle of the guy who made America respected again on the world stage. The court didn’t strip him of power—they gave him the ability to evolve the strategy without looking like he blinked.

And let’s not overlook the economic upside. If tariffs are scaled back or nullified for good, markets will surge way more than they are doing tonight, with NASDAQ futures up more than 2% already. The market has been living under a cloud of uncertainty tied to tariffs for months. Take that cloud away, and suddenly equities have room to breathe—possibly even break new records.

The bond market could also catch a break. Lower tariffs could help bring bond yields down. That’s critical right now. The U.S. is managing a mountain of debt, and lower yields would make that debt easier to service. It was also alleviate any continued pressure yields are putting on the basis trade.

Yes, there’s a trade-off. The federal government will lose the tariff revenue. But Trump still has time to make that up with spending cuts, and again, lower bond yields would make rolling over debt far less painful, especially under the current interest rate climate. Fiscal responsibility is not impossible here—it just requires the political will to make some tough calls. If anyone’s shown a willingness to buck the establishment and make tough calls, it’s Trump.

This is textbook game theory. Trump is now in a position where he can pursue the path of least political resistance with the highest strategic upside. He can offload the political costs of ending tariffs onto the judiciary, claim victory for the pressure they brought, strike new and better deals, energize the markets, and move into 2025 as the economic maestro who finished what he started.

And let’s not forget—Trump’s base didn’t fall in love with him because of tariffs. They backed him because he fought the fights no one else would, because he flipped the table in rooms where America was getting a raw deal. Tariffs were a means, not the end. If he can now shift to being the guy who cuts better deals and gets America back into a market boom, they’ll be just as happy.

So today’s court ruling? Sure, on paper, it restricts a tool Trump used effectively. But if you ask me, it’s less of a defeat and more of an opening. The political upside, the market upside, the fiscal upside—it’s all there. Trump just has to walk through the door the court just kicked open for him.

Let’s hope his team sees the opportunity…

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