What the judges did today frankly neutered trade negotiations. I think Trump lost all leverage. I appreciate your 4D political thoughts, Chris . Making chicken salad out of chicken shit is not a feature of Chef Trump.
Don’t want an out. Don’t care that the NASDAQ shoots back up if tariffs are over. Reject the judiciary that is stopping every move he makes that he was elected to do. Bring back the tariffs and pain until we get back to reality. It won’t be pretty but thats the punishment for living in fairyland for so long with easy money. The stock market isn’t the economy, it's fake-GDP-money printing-companies that give awful services and cheap flimsy products that want global Zimbabwe. This is a country, not an economic zone. Tariff everything until ovens and refrigerators and cars last longer than 2 years.
“The federal government will lose the tariff revenue. But Trump still has time to make that up with spending cuts”
Spending cuts? ROFLMAO. This is the guy who added $8 trillion to the deficit during his first term and is cheerleading the Big Bloated Bill that the GAO says will add another $3.8 to $5.2 trillion to the deficit — and that’s just for his FIRST budget! There are 3 more Trump budgets coming during his second term.
Perhaps Gold's true worth will be realized when all fiat currencies assume their real value by becoming nearly worthless to it relative to the present. I am so sick of waiting for that light in the tunnel to arrive as a high speed train . . . . . the sooner it is gotten over with, the better.
Interesting analysis. It might indeed be a blessing in disguise. But why did you have to ruin it with this statement..."But Trump still has time to make that up with spending cuts"?.......Between Trump and his Golden Shower missile defense plan and a drunk Republican House and Senate, suggestions of spending cuts border on the delusional.
Zero percent chance he does this. It isn’t even in his hands. There are about 5000 groups that will quite literally fuck the world if such a thing passes and does so in this manner. It basically means courts become the absolute arbiter of executive power. More so than any of the previous rulings. If Trump wanted an out there are dozens of ways he could get them. Hell, it’s Trump. He could just fire Lutnick and the Nasdaq would rise 5%.
Not sure if Trump is going to let it slide - he will keep fighting w/o pivoting. Too stubborn.
Listened to Ron Johnson on Tucker last night. The budget is not going to pass the Senate (which I feel is a good thing) without more spending cuts. He wants to go through each line item and cut the waste (another good thing).
For the 1000th time - we do not have a revenue or tax rate issue - it's been a spending problem for 30 years now.
TACO world, baby. He had an historic chance to accomplish a number of things. Ukraine. Trade talks. Deficits. Iran as epicenter of Islamist terror. All bluster and a Unitary Executive, while ass kissers in Congress cower before him, in fear of crossing him. Call your wife a dog? Instead of challenging him to a duel, you lick his ass. You only have so much credibility and if you act like a petulant child, bully, ignoramus, and associate yourself with an idiot savant who helped buy the presidency, and then proceeds to tear the wires out of the (admittedly bloated) regulatory state willy-nilly without regard for fallout, you get to where he is. Congress, grow a spine (spines?). TACO. Putin knows it, Bibi, Macron and the EU, Xi, everyone knows it. He's wrecked the Christmas buying system, and that shoe will fall in due time. Had he taken a measured course, measuring twice and cutting once, maybe he could have succeeded. Instead, he runs the country the way he ran his businesses. Wait for default on the $45 trillion, just like his bankruptcies. His response? You fucked up. You trusted me, Flubber.
I will never rule out the possibility that DJT will have an idea that others never thought of, or were too chickenshit to attempt if they did, but he's not. He has a quarter tank of gas, half a pack of smokes, it's midnight, and he's wearing sunglasses - the Real-Life Blues Brother, it's insane.
"If tariffs are scaled back or nullified for good, markets will surge way more than they are doing tonight . . . . Take that cloud away, and suddenly equities have room to breathe—possibly even break new records."
We don't need more Batshit-Insanely over-inflated equity indexes pumped fat to bursting with funny money - you allude to the possibility of "more of the same, to infinity . . . . and beyond!". This cannot and will not continue.
Yes, yes, Trump's tariffs were always leverage and never meant to be permanent. Soon the battle will be getting the Fed to lower interest rates to help service the debt and the housing market. He has the advantage of not having to try to get re elected and can throw his weight around.
I am somewhat confused by your conclusions Chris. I believe you still think the PEs are way overvalued in an overbought market so what difference do new highs mean if your base case is bear market intermediate term? I believe your belief in Trump is clouding your view of what is happening. Maybe I am wrong but 2 years ago you would never have seen things this way. Don’t be zero hedge and all of a sudden see greatness where before you saw grift. I agree tariffs were a short term negotiating strategy but using the courts as an excuse is weak. I still see the world economy in a silent depression with depression era economics as we move to a developing country economy. The Eurodollar market signals dollar shortage and the real reason for any inflation slow down or possible disinflation is recession, not the current policy of the day. A little disappointed in your seeming to cheerlead for the current group of people that hate all of us. Remember it’s a small group and we ain’t in it.
One way or another the world financial system will be "reset". Looks now as if the process will be chaotic/lethal as the denizens of the Deep State fight to all our deaths (from their "bunkers") to retain every last shred of power they have accumulated over the last @110 years. Buckle those shoulder harnesses tight.
Great read as usual. I definitely saw the legal blow as a relative moot for negotiation purposes knowing we can apply tons of pressure for better trade deals sans a judiciary ruling. I did not see the political upsides however.
Idk. We have so many fights on our hands. Judicial Reform will be another one soon enough.
What the judges did today frankly neutered trade negotiations. I think Trump lost all leverage. I appreciate your 4D political thoughts, Chris . Making chicken salad out of chicken shit is not a feature of Chef Trump.
But I believe that the "Supremes" immediately put a "Hold" on that decision.
And that from a true connoisseur.
Don’t want an out. Don’t care that the NASDAQ shoots back up if tariffs are over. Reject the judiciary that is stopping every move he makes that he was elected to do. Bring back the tariffs and pain until we get back to reality. It won’t be pretty but thats the punishment for living in fairyland for so long with easy money. The stock market isn’t the economy, it's fake-GDP-money printing-companies that give awful services and cheap flimsy products that want global Zimbabwe. This is a country, not an economic zone. Tariff everything until ovens and refrigerators and cars last longer than 2 years.
“The federal government will lose the tariff revenue. But Trump still has time to make that up with spending cuts”
Spending cuts? ROFLMAO. This is the guy who added $8 trillion to the deficit during his first term and is cheerleading the Big Bloated Bill that the GAO says will add another $3.8 to $5.2 trillion to the deficit — and that’s just for his FIRST budget! There are 3 more Trump budgets coming during his second term.
Great read, Chris - as always
Perhaps Gold's true worth will be realized when all fiat currencies assume their real value by becoming nearly worthless to it relative to the present. I am so sick of waiting for that light in the tunnel to arrive as a high speed train . . . . . the sooner it is gotten over with, the better.
And high on cocaine. You go fed.
Interesting analysis. It might indeed be a blessing in disguise. But why did you have to ruin it with this statement..."But Trump still has time to make that up with spending cuts"?.......Between Trump and his Golden Shower missile defense plan and a drunk Republican House and Senate, suggestions of spending cuts border on the delusional.
Hope springs eternal - it beats wrist-slitting.
Zero percent chance he does this. It isn’t even in his hands. There are about 5000 groups that will quite literally fuck the world if such a thing passes and does so in this manner. It basically means courts become the absolute arbiter of executive power. More so than any of the previous rulings. If Trump wanted an out there are dozens of ways he could get them. Hell, it’s Trump. He could just fire Lutnick and the Nasdaq would rise 5%.
This is not the way. Enjoy the VIX.
Not sure if Trump is going to let it slide - he will keep fighting w/o pivoting. Too stubborn.
Listened to Ron Johnson on Tucker last night. The budget is not going to pass the Senate (which I feel is a good thing) without more spending cuts. He wants to go through each line item and cut the waste (another good thing).
For the 1000th time - we do not have a revenue or tax rate issue - it's been a spending problem for 30 years now.
TACO world, baby. He had an historic chance to accomplish a number of things. Ukraine. Trade talks. Deficits. Iran as epicenter of Islamist terror. All bluster and a Unitary Executive, while ass kissers in Congress cower before him, in fear of crossing him. Call your wife a dog? Instead of challenging him to a duel, you lick his ass. You only have so much credibility and if you act like a petulant child, bully, ignoramus, and associate yourself with an idiot savant who helped buy the presidency, and then proceeds to tear the wires out of the (admittedly bloated) regulatory state willy-nilly without regard for fallout, you get to where he is. Congress, grow a spine (spines?). TACO. Putin knows it, Bibi, Macron and the EU, Xi, everyone knows it. He's wrecked the Christmas buying system, and that shoe will fall in due time. Had he taken a measured course, measuring twice and cutting once, maybe he could have succeeded. Instead, he runs the country the way he ran his businesses. Wait for default on the $45 trillion, just like his bankruptcies. His response? You fucked up. You trusted me, Flubber.
“spending cuts”?!? As Confucius said, “you a funny man.”
I will never rule out the possibility that DJT will have an idea that others never thought of, or were too chickenshit to attempt if they did, but he's not. He has a quarter tank of gas, half a pack of smokes, it's midnight, and he's wearing sunglasses - the Real-Life Blues Brother, it's insane.
"If tariffs are scaled back or nullified for good, markets will surge way more than they are doing tonight . . . . Take that cloud away, and suddenly equities have room to breathe—possibly even break new records."
We don't need more Batshit-Insanely over-inflated equity indexes pumped fat to bursting with funny money - you allude to the possibility of "more of the same, to infinity . . . . and beyond!". This cannot and will not continue.
Yes, yes, Trump's tariffs were always leverage and never meant to be permanent. Soon the battle will be getting the Fed to lower interest rates to help service the debt and the housing market. He has the advantage of not having to try to get re elected and can throw his weight around.
I am somewhat confused by your conclusions Chris. I believe you still think the PEs are way overvalued in an overbought market so what difference do new highs mean if your base case is bear market intermediate term? I believe your belief in Trump is clouding your view of what is happening. Maybe I am wrong but 2 years ago you would never have seen things this way. Don’t be zero hedge and all of a sudden see greatness where before you saw grift. I agree tariffs were a short term negotiating strategy but using the courts as an excuse is weak. I still see the world economy in a silent depression with depression era economics as we move to a developing country economy. The Eurodollar market signals dollar shortage and the real reason for any inflation slow down or possible disinflation is recession, not the current policy of the day. A little disappointed in your seeming to cheerlead for the current group of people that hate all of us. Remember it’s a small group and we ain’t in it.
One way or another the world financial system will be "reset". Looks now as if the process will be chaotic/lethal as the denizens of the Deep State fight to all our deaths (from their "bunkers") to retain every last shred of power they have accumulated over the last @110 years. Buckle those shoulder harnesses tight.
Great read as usual. I definitely saw the legal blow as a relative moot for negotiation purposes knowing we can apply tons of pressure for better trade deals sans a judiciary ruling. I did not see the political upsides however.
Idk. We have so many fights on our hands. Judicial Reform will be another one soon enough.