The economy and the stock market are disconnected when the Fed's policy is quantitative easing. But when the Fed is raising rates, the two are tethered back together.
I fully support your point of view. In all likelihood, the next two years will be the most interesting. I made sure to have a few cases of good wine to keep an eye on things from a distance. 🍷
I have have a group text with 7 buddies who all do very well financially. The main complain over the weekend was the grocery stores. One is the prices and the other was organization of staff. I was there Sunday morning, I was just picking things up to make a pot of chili for the week. I got ready to check out and they had only 2 cashiers and the regular self check outs. All the check out lines were 8 deep. However as I was shopping there were at least a dozen "employee shoppers" filling online orders. How much labor is being wasted on Americans being too fucking lazy to pick out their own groceries.
So after 15 minute wait I check out and my bill was $101. Again I got ingredients for chili and a couple misc. small items. I was shell shocked - until I looked the bill. The meat (bacon, hamburger and sausage) was almost $30. WTF.
So going back to my text message string - 5 of the 8 of us had similar experiences over the weekend. Luckily none of us are going to change our life styles over this - but we asked how are average families surviving this? Then I pointed out the credit card chart.
The government is either clueless on what they have done to society with their policies OR they are geniuses and have pulled off the heist to convert us to a socialist country.
Retirement balances are no where close to the level for most Americans to retire.
Our government is broke and cannot bail out America this time.
I have worked for a major airline for over 30 years. I have never seen such crowded airports and full flights as I've seen in the past couple of months. While I strongly feel that the economy is in a decline, why does everyone seem to have the money to fly?
Maybe the bigger the bubble (and this last few years is the biggest of all) the more ingrained denial there is. Whereas 2000 and 2008 tended to get on with rolling over this current decline appears to have a certified bull cycle trying to restart in the midst of it. Weird.
Reminds me so much of my little dog who wants to do whatever she wants to do while I stand on the sidewalk and keep her from running in front of traffic to chase squirrels. Great analogy!
Serious question for Chris and everyone else here... I completely agree with the sentiment of this article and the comments.. why do you or anyone who feels this way ( myself included) stay in the market at all in this environment? If we see this all most likely ending badly at some point in the near future what are we doing discussing specific stocks or etfs, sectors, etc..... my own behavior confuses me in this way...
Had a Production Manager that repeated the same mantra over and over "Can't fit 10 lbs in a 5 lb sack". People ignored him, so he just kept repeating himself.
I feel the same way about my point on consumer debt default.
I am convinced that this is THE shoe to drop that will send things tumbling.
It's already starting with auto loans. Credit cards will be next. It will hit full force this summer with student loans (if the can doesn't get kicked again).
Then mortgages.
Consumers spend until they can't. Then they default so they can keep spending. It's a sickness.
I see you have been focused on rates at or above 5% as disastrous for the economy while this is close to the average 10 yr treas yld over the past 30 years. Why such a disaster now that rates seem "back to nornal"?
I fully support your point of view. In all likelihood, the next two years will be the most interesting. I made sure to have a few cases of good wine to keep an eye on things from a distance. 🍷
That savings/debt chart is ominous
I have have a group text with 7 buddies who all do very well financially. The main complain over the weekend was the grocery stores. One is the prices and the other was organization of staff. I was there Sunday morning, I was just picking things up to make a pot of chili for the week. I got ready to check out and they had only 2 cashiers and the regular self check outs. All the check out lines were 8 deep. However as I was shopping there were at least a dozen "employee shoppers" filling online orders. How much labor is being wasted on Americans being too fucking lazy to pick out their own groceries.
So after 15 minute wait I check out and my bill was $101. Again I got ingredients for chili and a couple misc. small items. I was shell shocked - until I looked the bill. The meat (bacon, hamburger and sausage) was almost $30. WTF.
So going back to my text message string - 5 of the 8 of us had similar experiences over the weekend. Luckily none of us are going to change our life styles over this - but we asked how are average families surviving this? Then I pointed out the credit card chart.
The government is either clueless on what they have done to society with their policies OR they are geniuses and have pulled off the heist to convert us to a socialist country.
Retirement balances are no where close to the level for most Americans to retire.
Our government is broke and cannot bail out America this time.
This is not going to end well.
always enjoy your analysis...great stuff.
I also really enjoy your podcasts...wish you would do more...
I came for the market insight. I stayed for the 90s movies references.
I have worked for a major airline for over 30 years. I have never seen such crowded airports and full flights as I've seen in the past couple of months. While I strongly feel that the economy is in a decline, why does everyone seem to have the money to fly?
Maybe the bigger the bubble (and this last few years is the biggest of all) the more ingrained denial there is. Whereas 2000 and 2008 tended to get on with rolling over this current decline appears to have a certified bull cycle trying to restart in the midst of it. Weird.
The thesis is correct but the timing is out of our hands.
Precious metals are in the exact same boat with regards to real yields no?
Reminds me so much of my little dog who wants to do whatever she wants to do while I stand on the sidewalk and keep her from running in front of traffic to chase squirrels. Great analogy!
Good analysis, linking as usual @https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/
Another shoe drop https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2023/02/24/warner-bros-discovery-announce-plans-to-exit-rsns-added-with-bally-sports-puts-two-thirds-of-mlb-on-edge/?sh=1148c961651c
Serious question for Chris and everyone else here... I completely agree with the sentiment of this article and the comments.. why do you or anyone who feels this way ( myself included) stay in the market at all in this environment? If we see this all most likely ending badly at some point in the near future what are we doing discussing specific stocks or etfs, sectors, etc..... my own behavior confuses me in this way...
What if the market doesn't crash but remains horizontal for the next 3-5 years. Would be the same result.
I get it about being repetitive.
Had a Production Manager that repeated the same mantra over and over "Can't fit 10 lbs in a 5 lb sack". People ignored him, so he just kept repeating himself.
I feel the same way about my point on consumer debt default.
I am convinced that this is THE shoe to drop that will send things tumbling.
It's already starting with auto loans. Credit cards will be next. It will hit full force this summer with student loans (if the can doesn't get kicked again).
Then mortgages.
Consumers spend until they can't. Then they default so they can keep spending. It's a sickness.
I see you have been focused on rates at or above 5% as disastrous for the economy while this is close to the average 10 yr treas yld over the past 30 years. Why such a disaster now that rates seem "back to nornal"?