Mar 18, 2022·edited Mar 18, 2022Liked by Quoth the Raven
The very best thing that could happen to the USA as of this moment would be for the rest of the world to stop allowing our politicians, our bankers and all of the various connected con-men to continue feeding at the trough of wealth they have not earned. This largesse has warped our culture, spawning generations of entitled morons, has destroyed the competitiveness of our businesses and industries and allowed the most worthless group of idiots to stay in positions of power than at any time in world history. We need a cleansing by Mr. Market. Only after the Great Bankruptcy will we begin to understand how sick we have truly become and take the steps to become healthy again.
Could it be the destiny of all empires though? As Ray Dalio says, “Hasnt happened in our lifetimes but has happened many times” Maybe the real hubris has always been we all thought it would be different this time.
I had an econ professor that talked about the 100 year cycle. Global leaders have about a 100 year period and then another country takes over. First 50-60 years they are innovative and work hard. Then they become wealthy and lazy. Then another 2nd tier power comes up being innovative and work harder - take over.
US has been that global leader since WWII.........we have become very lazy the past 20 years - outsourcing our manufacturing to China and 3rd world countries. The US has become very lazy and this will lead to china becoming the world leader in the near future. US will drop down to a 2nd tier country.
Seems to me that this could be a fatal moment of reckoning, which would not be survivable. America would be impoverished overnight, its currency worthless, and there'd be food riots in the streets.
You're 100% right, but there is zero chance of grownups getting elected in the current political system. The two party system is a sham and "we the people" are too busy fighting each other over petty things that don't matter to even begin the discussion that would be required to elect a grownup who promises and delivers pain even though that pain is exactly what we need to get healthy again.
I would suggest all the wars we keep fighting are tied directly to the defense of our dollar. Khadafi said no more dollars for oil, he’s gone…Saddam said no more dollars for oil, he’s gone … now with Russia and China threatening the same thing, it is no coincidence we are beating the drums of war again. As for Saudi, they take our dollars - so we fight their wars for them in places we have no business like Yemen. It’s all about the dollars…
Been wondering for a while what happens to other western currencies once the dollar loses the crown - particularly the GBP (where im based at the moment). If one doesnt have a big enough pair to leave the dollar and go to metal / Asian currencies - wonder if such other western currencies will have some hope... Are you aware of anyone who's looked into this?
lol, "ff one doesnt have a big enough pair to leave the dollar and go to metal / Asian currencies"... well played squire! There were only two types of westerners after the Paulson et al., coup de e'tat of 2008...
those that got the memo... and started making plans for the LONG MARCH OUTTA DODGE,
& those who simply stayed put on their barstools waiting for the next stranger to walk in and order another free round for all.
Needless to say, the demographic is hopelessly skewed tween the two. Not one in a hundred who actually took enough note to buy metals and/or check out a new address actually followed through and got out of the west while the getting was good.
Imagine life now in gulags like CANUKISTAN - where you can hug your pm stash in your bug out igloo... but you're not allowed tEAVE if your haven't been death-jabbed multiple times!
All the 5eyes countries are fried. And anyone who manages to get out, at this point, will be regarded by the folks where they flee too as despised pariahs...
instead of being warmly welcomed and showered with freebies... like certain military aged 'refugees' who flock to Europe in search of a 'better life!' "once the dollar loses the crown"... they ALL go down... like bowling pins ol sock!
Holding the metals for that 'rainy Biden day' was a good idea. Holding in a place far away from the western GULAGISTANS was an even better one. FUNNY how the geniuses who **** all over that idea... when it was presented many years ago... ain't talkin so loud now that kovid GITMO has come a knockin!
If UK stays with the US sphere of financial influence then the GBP goes down with the USD. As does the EUR.
In addition the structural issues in UK with national debt and pension / healthcare etc obligations, corruption politicians are similar to the US. Are are those in EU.
I have no desire to go down with a sinking ship, so relocated out of the Western countries and moved my investments out of USD and crazy stock markets.
I feel differently....any replacement of the USD will be a slow burn, especially if you believe the yuan will ascend to this lofty post. There are a lot of shortcomings with the yuan. And as an aside, whilst USD's status gives the US clout in global politics (because it can be "weaponised"), the status is not necessarily all positive for the US, either. Ideally, a more balanced group of reserve currencies will evolve over time.
It always starts slow, but it never ends slow. It might be nice to think there's still plenty of time, but that actually places you firmly at the point of greatest hazard...
Not arguing with this, doubt we’ll realistically see it coming until it’s done. Having said that, I struggle to see a viable alternative. And I don’t think a (continued) gradual decline in the USD as the “go to” global reserve currency is at all bad for the US in the long run. Dollar is too strong now, and yields on USTs are too low. Leads to all sorts of distortions.
Good question. As a day-to-day currency, gold would not work because of its nature/attributes to "carry around". As a link, it has been used at various times, but has generally been abandoned because it renders monetary policy outside a narrow range impotent. The supply off gold conveniently grows around the rate of inflation I believe, so in normal times, this keeps the central banks with currencies linked to gold in check. However, when more accommodative policies are needed quickly to address economic downturns during times of crisis (e.g. Great Recession, pandemic), monetary policy is unable to address these. Similarly, during times of high inflation (coming, for example, from overly accommodative fiscal policies), the central bank is equally left helpless to tighten. For this reason, every time there has been a gold link (think Bretton Woods), it was eventually abandoned. When you think about it, I'm not sure this is good or bad, because gold can't be "printed" at will and it holds the line. However, the reality is that – at least politically – governments have also jumped ship during difficult periods.
Why would anyone trust us? We've killed 60 million babies and just tried to kill off the entire middle class. And the same middle class around the world. China let us talk them into opening a bio weapons lab in Wuhan and we released it. We now we find out we have 35 more of them in Ukraine. We commit war crimes at will in this country and point out fingers at all of them. That's why the whole world hates us. Our word isn't worth the paper it's printed on. Tell me I'm wrong.
Our government is all about the management of our perception of our wealth and security. Their ability to do this is now becoming impossible. Soon more and more folks will become aware of the reality. Surely the government knows this and will probably develop some diversion like a more deadly pandemic.
If we had an honest government they would tell the public the true state of our financial situation, declare bankruptcy, and initiate a new monetary system based on gold and silver. However, my guess is that most folks, if asked, would prefer not to know the truth and maintain our lying system as it is.
Chris, Central Banks have seen what happens to their foreign reserves if the US decides to label them a “bad actor”. For years now, they’ve been loading up on gold while dumping treasuries. Many are convinced the hegemony of the dollar in terms of pricing oil has backfired. I think we are heading to the basket of currencies model and away from the petro-dollar. We are in the beginning of a commodity super cycle where natural resources will trump fiat.
Ok so spitballing here, fire back poltely...If the scenario occurs, it seems that the currency or whatever you call it will skyrocket, making exports way too expensive. See, e.g., why the FRG loves the Euro. If the dollar is replaced, then everything PRC exports doubles or triples in price. SA has oil, but $300/bbl sends us to war; economic, kinteic or both. We annex Iraq, Kuwait and UAE as the 51st, 52nd, and 53rd states. Over the top but oil producers will not be monolithic.
Meanwhile, PRC can't export anything, and Mercantilist CCP has a problem. Not enough demand within the country and with a rapidly shrinking population (same with RUS), demand for exports falls off a cliff. What then? Phyrric victories? US Onshoring of supply chains occurs, eventually and maybe we build those thousand SMR power plants like we can/must. Much more...
Quick, somebody give me the price of oil in yuan? Or any commodity. Do you think the Mayo Clinic will take yuan when the Saudis show up for their checkups? Plus, how many foreign banks and investors own all that U.S. debt?
We are already transitioning to a dual reserve currency system. Bottom line is the economic health of the nation has NOTHING to do with what politicians and those that pull their strings will do. Getting reelected comes first, second and third.
The FSB under Carney years ago established a globally coordinated system reset plan for systemic financial institutions. The logic diagrams that popped up during the GCF from Harvard were pretty much the model implemented – today one can just look at tiny Canada and the public CDIC documentation.
This is all public info.
Since when were governments ever prepared for any future risk, let alone globally coordinated and presently ready with staff on standby to handle such an event?
This tells you that (if) there is such an event, it will be an emergency the world has never seen – every computer entry or contract you can think of will be bailed in.
The very best thing that could happen to the USA as of this moment would be for the rest of the world to stop allowing our politicians, our bankers and all of the various connected con-men to continue feeding at the trough of wealth they have not earned. This largesse has warped our culture, spawning generations of entitled morons, has destroyed the competitiveness of our businesses and industries and allowed the most worthless group of idiots to stay in positions of power than at any time in world history. We need a cleansing by Mr. Market. Only after the Great Bankruptcy will we begin to understand how sick we have truly become and take the steps to become healthy again.
Well said. Unfortunate we have gotten to this position, but well said.
Could it be the destiny of all empires though? As Ray Dalio says, “Hasnt happened in our lifetimes but has happened many times” Maybe the real hubris has always been we all thought it would be different this time.
I had an econ professor that talked about the 100 year cycle. Global leaders have about a 100 year period and then another country takes over. First 50-60 years they are innovative and work hard. Then they become wealthy and lazy. Then another 2nd tier power comes up being innovative and work harder - take over.
US has been that global leader since WWII.........we have become very lazy the past 20 years - outsourcing our manufacturing to China and 3rd world countries. The US has become very lazy and this will lead to china becoming the world leader in the near future. US will drop down to a 2nd tier country.
Seems to me that this could be a fatal moment of reckoning, which would not be survivable. America would be impoverished overnight, its currency worthless, and there'd be food riots in the streets.
It is the same in almost all countries. Perhaps to varying degrees, but all politicians are dishonest.
The very best thing would be some grownups get elected and make a few hard decisions that correct our drift without wrecking the ship as we do.
But that ain't gonna happen
You're 100% right, but there is zero chance of grownups getting elected in the current political system. The two party system is a sham and "we the people" are too busy fighting each other over petty things that don't matter to even begin the discussion that would be required to elect a grownup who promises and delivers pain even though that pain is exactly what we need to get healthy again.
The very best thing would be some grownups get elected and make a few hard decisions that correct our drift without wrecking the ship as we do.
But that ain't gonna happen
I would suggest all the wars we keep fighting are tied directly to the defense of our dollar. Khadafi said no more dollars for oil, he’s gone…Saddam said no more dollars for oil, he’s gone … now with Russia and China threatening the same thing, it is no coincidence we are beating the drums of war again. As for Saudi, they take our dollars - so we fight their wars for them in places we have no business like Yemen. It’s all about the dollars…
Best comment
Been wondering for a while what happens to other western currencies once the dollar loses the crown - particularly the GBP (where im based at the moment). If one doesnt have a big enough pair to leave the dollar and go to metal / Asian currencies - wonder if such other western currencies will have some hope... Are you aware of anyone who's looked into this?
lol, "ff one doesnt have a big enough pair to leave the dollar and go to metal / Asian currencies"... well played squire! There were only two types of westerners after the Paulson et al., coup de e'tat of 2008...
those that got the memo... and started making plans for the LONG MARCH OUTTA DODGE,
& those who simply stayed put on their barstools waiting for the next stranger to walk in and order another free round for all.
Needless to say, the demographic is hopelessly skewed tween the two. Not one in a hundred who actually took enough note to buy metals and/or check out a new address actually followed through and got out of the west while the getting was good.
Imagine life now in gulags like CANUKISTAN - where you can hug your pm stash in your bug out igloo... but you're not allowed tEAVE if your haven't been death-jabbed multiple times!
All the 5eyes countries are fried. And anyone who manages to get out, at this point, will be regarded by the folks where they flee too as despised pariahs...
instead of being warmly welcomed and showered with freebies... like certain military aged 'refugees' who flock to Europe in search of a 'better life!' "once the dollar loses the crown"... they ALL go down... like bowling pins ol sock!
Holding the metals for that 'rainy Biden day' was a good idea. Holding in a place far away from the western GULAGISTANS was an even better one. FUNNY how the geniuses who **** all over that idea... when it was presented many years ago... ain't talkin so loud now that kovid GITMO has come a knockin!
https://baykus.substack.com/p/barbarous-reliquary-series-part-two?s=w
The “Esctasy of Gold” -originally published May 2014
If UK stays with the US sphere of financial influence then the GBP goes down with the USD. As does the EUR.
In addition the structural issues in UK with national debt and pension / healthcare etc obligations, corruption politicians are similar to the US. Are are those in EU.
I have no desire to go down with a sinking ship, so relocated out of the Western countries and moved my investments out of USD and crazy stock markets.
Good luck!
https://www.emorningcoffee.com/post/will-the-us-dollar-remain-the-global-reserve-currency
I feel differently....any replacement of the USD will be a slow burn, especially if you believe the yuan will ascend to this lofty post. There are a lot of shortcomings with the yuan. And as an aside, whilst USD's status gives the US clout in global politics (because it can be "weaponised"), the status is not necessarily all positive for the US, either. Ideally, a more balanced group of reserve currencies will evolve over time.
It always starts slow, but it never ends slow. It might be nice to think there's still plenty of time, but that actually places you firmly at the point of greatest hazard...
Not arguing with this, doubt we’ll realistically see it coming until it’s done. Having said that, I struggle to see a viable alternative. And I don’t think a (continued) gradual decline in the USD as the “go to” global reserve currency is at all bad for the US in the long run. Dollar is too strong now, and yields on USTs are too low. Leads to all sorts of distortions.
What about gold?
Good question. As a day-to-day currency, gold would not work because of its nature/attributes to "carry around". As a link, it has been used at various times, but has generally been abandoned because it renders monetary policy outside a narrow range impotent. The supply off gold conveniently grows around the rate of inflation I believe, so in normal times, this keeps the central banks with currencies linked to gold in check. However, when more accommodative policies are needed quickly to address economic downturns during times of crisis (e.g. Great Recession, pandemic), monetary policy is unable to address these. Similarly, during times of high inflation (coming, for example, from overly accommodative fiscal policies), the central bank is equally left helpless to tighten. For this reason, every time there has been a gold link (think Bretton Woods), it was eventually abandoned. When you think about it, I'm not sure this is good or bad, because gold can't be "printed" at will and it holds the line. However, the reality is that – at least politically – governments have also jumped ship during difficult periods.
Thanks for reading the article in emorningcoffee.com.
Why would anyone trust us? We've killed 60 million babies and just tried to kill off the entire middle class. And the same middle class around the world. China let us talk them into opening a bio weapons lab in Wuhan and we released it. We now we find out we have 35 more of them in Ukraine. We commit war crimes at will in this country and point out fingers at all of them. That's why the whole world hates us. Our word isn't worth the paper it's printed on. Tell me I'm wrong.
Our government is all about the management of our perception of our wealth and security. Their ability to do this is now becoming impossible. Soon more and more folks will become aware of the reality. Surely the government knows this and will probably develop some diversion like a more deadly pandemic.
If we had an honest government they would tell the public the true state of our financial situation, declare bankruptcy, and initiate a new monetary system based on gold and silver. However, my guess is that most folks, if asked, would prefer not to know the truth and maintain our lying system as it is.
Chris, Central Banks have seen what happens to their foreign reserves if the US decides to label them a “bad actor”. For years now, they’ve been loading up on gold while dumping treasuries. Many are convinced the hegemony of the dollar in terms of pricing oil has backfired. I think we are heading to the basket of currencies model and away from the petro-dollar. We are in the beginning of a commodity super cycle where natural resources will trump fiat.
I don’t know economics. It’s too hard for me but what do you think of this commentary? https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1504259371059978243.html
Ok so spitballing here, fire back poltely...If the scenario occurs, it seems that the currency or whatever you call it will skyrocket, making exports way too expensive. See, e.g., why the FRG loves the Euro. If the dollar is replaced, then everything PRC exports doubles or triples in price. SA has oil, but $300/bbl sends us to war; economic, kinteic or both. We annex Iraq, Kuwait and UAE as the 51st, 52nd, and 53rd states. Over the top but oil producers will not be monolithic.
Meanwhile, PRC can't export anything, and Mercantilist CCP has a problem. Not enough demand within the country and with a rapidly shrinking population (same with RUS), demand for exports falls off a cliff. What then? Phyrric victories? US Onshoring of supply chains occurs, eventually and maybe we build those thousand SMR power plants like we can/must. Much more...
burn this mother fucker down
just dont burn mine down, Please!
okie dokie
I think p3c meant to say #BITFD, a la Ben Hunt/Epsilon Theory, right?
Yeah. Love epsilon theory. Not enough to get behind his paywall, but heh.
Quick, somebody give me the price of oil in yuan? Or any commodity. Do you think the Mayo Clinic will take yuan when the Saudis show up for their checkups? Plus, how many foreign banks and investors own all that U.S. debt?
This is normalcy bias in a literal nutshell.
I read pages and pages of fear mongering crap everyday. It gets eyeball, but is hardly ever, OK never correct.
So because prices for globally traded commodities are currently quoted in USD, you are saying that this will not (or can not) change?
We are already transitioning to a dual reserve currency system. Bottom line is the economic health of the nation has NOTHING to do with what politicians and those that pull their strings will do. Getting reelected comes first, second and third.
the corruption at the very top of the political food chain will eventually have to pay, and wreak havoc for all the innocent citizens...
QFS anyone?
The FSB under Carney years ago established a globally coordinated system reset plan for systemic financial institutions. The logic diagrams that popped up during the GCF from Harvard were pretty much the model implemented – today one can just look at tiny Canada and the public CDIC documentation.
This is all public info.
Since when were governments ever prepared for any future risk, let alone globally coordinated and presently ready with staff on standby to handle such an event?
This tells you that (if) there is such an event, it will be an emergency the world has never seen – every computer entry or contract you can think of will be bailed in.
And, its gone.
So you only let certain people post here?