That sounds right to me. I don't follow markets anywhere near as closely -- basically I "gave up" after being wrong for so long. The fact it all sounds right -- QTR, Mark Spiegel, Lawrence Lepard, etc. -- worries me. If I think it's right -- oh boy! That's how bad my self-confidence has gotten.
The tit-signing picture said it all. Just like the foosball and booze party fests the late 90s dot-coms used to call "work" on VC money right before the epic crash. Although to be sure Nvidia is profitable, which is different.
I think the WSJ published a story last week on AI spending not likely to be anywhere near as profitable as businesses think. I know a bit about these models. They're amazing, impressive feats of computer engineering, absolutely no doubt. But man, I just don't see the economy changing dynamic here. I see process improvement in niche areas. And I don't see consumers (i.e. people) sitting around all day making cool "art" using DALL-E. It's a hula hoop, if anyone recalls that.
Every historical bubble in history is like this. Why is it different now? I don't know why. I don't think it is. But then, I wouldn't know, evidently based on my prognosticative powers. I still have no idea why people like shopping on Amazon vs. going into reality and shopping. I see the case for the automobile though vs. the horse & buggy.
I agree on your AI assessment, I almost wonder if there will be a backlash against tech if the bubble bursts. As you say there are niches where AI will work, I think biotech/medicines/antibiotics will be a beneficiary here with AI's ability to map out proteins and perform predictive analysis. This is one area where it takes humans extremely long time frames to perform and AI can really be efficient.
Sound correct to me as well. And I’ve been right there with you, in Maximum Protection Mode since December 2021. (except for my YOLO bets on miners, which are in a separate portfolio and I don’t count in my NAV and consider them money gone at all times).
With cash 5%+, gold/silver 15%+, shipping and energy 25%+, I don’t fell like I’ve missed anything, and overall my NAV has grown by about 15% since Dec 2021. Nothing like the Nvidia crowd, but I’m never wondering when it will be time to get out.
And yep, I’m still on the limit down morning train.
LOL. Well you f another year goes by and we are still incorrect, then I guess I’ll have to travel to Pittsburg for the shot. I don’t drink whiskey, but I’d make an exception.
Nvidia returns are impressive for sure. But my return on #SPUT was well over 100% before I took most of the profit. And many of my clean tankers, such as $ASC, $INSW, $DHT etc have provided an 18 month return of 30-100%. And paid dividends ranging from 4-9%. I bailed on Cameco early, but I know people with well over 100% returns. And, IMHO, the above highlighted gains were all achieved with significantly less real risk than buying Nvidia, or the top 7, or the Nasdaq as a whole. Because when it rolls over, it’s not coming back. If the shipping stocks roll over, they will come back. At least that is my view. I’ve taken a lot of profit and I continue to chip away at all my equity positions. Except the miners. Glory or zero there.
Spent many years wondering how long the markets/govt can continue the charade of everything being ok, or at least "ok enough". I dont see the powers that be letting everything fail before the federal power handoff next January. They've come along way with using a tire pump to inflate the markets. It seems to work!
I got a kick out of the reference to the "Chinese finger trap." It's actually worse. At least you're alive even if stuck. Meme stocks are really one half of a circular firing squad. If you take a long side of the circle, you better get out before someone yells "sell..." er... "fire!" And if you're part of the short half of the circle you're in even worse shape. So you cover what you can and yell "sell..." er... "fire!"
David Hunter, who has profited from a massive bull run while I was short, says we aren't done because there is still a sufficient amount of bearish sentiment. (That is, there are still converts to the bull market to be had.) I'm waiting until we get closer to his targets before going short again.
It's funny, I drew the conclusion at the guilty verdict in the Trump trials in NY. My thesis was that if the US had fallen to the concept of jailing the political opponents of the ruling class, that was a significant change. It speaks to the end of the rule of law, which leads to questions about property rights. this is the second issue of this nature (the confiscation of Russian assets being the first) and I have to question how anxious foreign investors will be to invest in the US. they don't even need to sell, just stop buying is enough. but all that was before the boob-signing and Roaring Kitty, which seem to be other signals as well. for someone who has been in the markets for more than 40 years, this certainly has the feel of the excesses that come with a top.
Oddly enough I thought the same thing that this has to be close to the top. The dude was up cumultive 146 million but down 285 million for the day. And there he was like the Mad Hatter grinning from ear to ear.
No worries QTR, one of these days you will be right. Meanwhile, I just follow the trend, invest in a bit of crypto long term, and enjoy the roller coaster ride.
This GameStop mania is the last straw. This is an extremely frothy market and many stocks (including Nvidia) are severely over-hyped and overvalued. I would love to see these high fliers get a reality check and pull back at least 20-30%. Fingers crossed.
If it’s not dead it’s being wheeled into ER. The nvidia groupie photo is gonna be (in)famous after the crash. Of course timing all of this is the problem but if we’re wrong well at least we get to witness the first exception to the rule of “everything that goes up must come down”.
Thanks for great descriptions in the interim- like “stock-market-ComicCon“…
I think that number go up forever. Trees can grow to the sky. Just kidding. As an Aussie we are already in a recession if you take out the immigration wave, and see that per capita GDP fell. We haven’t collapsed yet but I feel that will come soon, but maybe 2025 and not 2024.
I've been thinking this whole thing is going to come crashing down any day since about 2013! This market has crushed the spirit of bears for many years now. I think it might take more white collar job losses to stop the relentless passive flow from dollar cost averaging into 401k total market index funds? Doesn't seem like we are there yet with mass layoffs. But a downturn at any time would never surprise me.
As have I. But now (honest, I swear, honest!) it really seems tough to figure out runway forward other than just straight rigging markets by the NY Fed buying (more?) index futures and bonds. It could very well happen, if it isn't happening already. But then gold is going to go. All JMO. - Q
I do attend a session every Wed evening, in a old church basement. I walk in, grab my bad Folgers coffee in a white styrofoam cup, sit down in a circle of chairs, and announce myself. "Hi, I'm WesternSky, I'm a perma bear".
If I had to guess I wouldn't say he is. Saying on the livestream he isn't working with anyone, if he was, would be an immediate trip to jail and he's smart enough to know this. I think he's flying solo. Just my $0.02, as usual. Q
Excellent analysis as always. Slowly, then all at once seems to be the rule every time. Except with meme stocks paired with FOMO and AI and smooth-brained /r fanbois, all-at-once will be in the rear view.
Chris, excellent article. I am equally pessimistic and wrong on timing. Since I consent to pretty much nothing the government, medical experts, preachers or media has ever told me, I also enjoy 'sticking it to the man' in my own peaceful, non-compliant way.
How wicked the media truly is promoting the fairy tale of the 'Emperor New Clothes". Censorship is required to keep the lies going. The lies are so deep that each and every article or 'news item' they flash in front of me, deserves scrutiny and a high dose of skepticism. "Why" do they want the public to know this 'fact' now I ask myself when I give in to an hour of 'catching up with the current thing'.
The Jerry Springer like drama surrounding the Empire's newest presidential election keeps many engaged & enraged. It is most pitiful to watch friends 'debate' and devolve into wretched, dogmatic , deceived humans. The MOST substantive issues like the death and destruction of millions of humans through the virus/mRNA shots, pandemic policies (mental illness and soaring debt), war in Ukraine, chemical warfare on all of us (look at our waterways, soil, sky, food) not to mention the famine that effects many parts of the world today.
I had hoped that the dangers of the mRNA shots, which are evident, would have 'awakened' many. I was wrong. They have been trapped in the 'next new thing' that was fed to them like the lab rats they are.
As far as the market goes, I think NVDA will have a quick post-split decline in price and then many fools will jump in for another round of musical chairs. Why? Most people don't understand what a stock split really is and they will "perceive" a bargain in 'price'. There is always room for another 'pump and dump'.
Survival of the fittest is a natural, third dimension law.
I always appreciate your thoughtful comments on my pieces. You're proof that civil discourse isn't *quite* dead yet, though very close (sigh). I too have experienced the same when trying to have rational discussions with people. Emotion hijacks them and it goes from 'conversation' to 'panic response' quickly. That means its usually time to forget whatever issue I thought was important enough to argue, have a cold beer and play some chess.
I 'worry' about household debt (especially the new gimmick that allow a purchase to be paid 'over 3 months') and, fortunately, successfully educated both my adult offspring to judiciously USE debt and not be a slave to it.
PS I had a bit of delightful fun in a comment exchange with a subscriber re: the 'celebrity signature on breast' post from the other day...such a relief to find some lightheartedness and he was such a wonderful playful sport about the exchange.
I'll pass on the beer and haven't tried chess with a gummie yet...
That sounds right to me. I don't follow markets anywhere near as closely -- basically I "gave up" after being wrong for so long. The fact it all sounds right -- QTR, Mark Spiegel, Lawrence Lepard, etc. -- worries me. If I think it's right -- oh boy! That's how bad my self-confidence has gotten.
The tit-signing picture said it all. Just like the foosball and booze party fests the late 90s dot-coms used to call "work" on VC money right before the epic crash. Although to be sure Nvidia is profitable, which is different.
I think the WSJ published a story last week on AI spending not likely to be anywhere near as profitable as businesses think. I know a bit about these models. They're amazing, impressive feats of computer engineering, absolutely no doubt. But man, I just don't see the economy changing dynamic here. I see process improvement in niche areas. And I don't see consumers (i.e. people) sitting around all day making cool "art" using DALL-E. It's a hula hoop, if anyone recalls that.
Every historical bubble in history is like this. Why is it different now? I don't know why. I don't think it is. But then, I wouldn't know, evidently based on my prognosticative powers. I still have no idea why people like shopping on Amazon vs. going into reality and shopping. I see the case for the automobile though vs. the horse & buggy.
I agree on your AI assessment, I almost wonder if there will be a backlash against tech if the bubble bursts. As you say there are niches where AI will work, I think biotech/medicines/antibiotics will be a beneficiary here with AI's ability to map out proteins and perform predictive analysis. This is one area where it takes humans extremely long time frames to perform and AI can really be efficient.
Sound correct to me as well. And I’ve been right there with you, in Maximum Protection Mode since December 2021. (except for my YOLO bets on miners, which are in a separate portfolio and I don’t count in my NAV and consider them money gone at all times).
With cash 5%+, gold/silver 15%+, shipping and energy 25%+, I don’t fell like I’ve missed anything, and overall my NAV has grown by about 15% since Dec 2021. Nothing like the Nvidia crowd, but I’m never wondering when it will be time to get out.
And yep, I’m still on the limit down morning train.
You and me are the last sole remaining survivors on that train my friend. If it never happens, at least we'll have a pal to have shot of whiskey with.
LOL. Well you f another year goes by and we are still incorrect, then I guess I’ll have to travel to Pittsburg for the shot. I don’t drink whiskey, but I’d make an exception.
Nvidia returns are impressive for sure. But my return on #SPUT was well over 100% before I took most of the profit. And many of my clean tankers, such as $ASC, $INSW, $DHT etc have provided an 18 month return of 30-100%. And paid dividends ranging from 4-9%. I bailed on Cameco early, but I know people with well over 100% returns. And, IMHO, the above highlighted gains were all achieved with significantly less real risk than buying Nvidia, or the top 7, or the Nasdaq as a whole. Because when it rolls over, it’s not coming back. If the shipping stocks roll over, they will come back. At least that is my view. I’ve taken a lot of profit and I continue to chip away at all my equity positions. Except the miners. Glory or zero there.
Spent many years wondering how long the markets/govt can continue the charade of everything being ok, or at least "ok enough". I dont see the powers that be letting everything fail before the federal power handoff next January. They've come along way with using a tire pump to inflate the markets. It seems to work!
And sadly "market analysis" now consists of just wondering if they can do it forever...
Yes, Aladdin will live on longer than homo sapiens.
I got a kick out of the reference to the "Chinese finger trap." It's actually worse. At least you're alive even if stuck. Meme stocks are really one half of a circular firing squad. If you take a long side of the circle, you better get out before someone yells "sell..." er... "fire!" And if you're part of the short half of the circle you're in even worse shape. So you cover what you can and yell "sell..." er... "fire!"
Always appreciate your thoughtful comments
David Hunter, who has profited from a massive bull run while I was short, says we aren't done because there is still a sufficient amount of bearish sentiment. (That is, there are still converts to the bull market to be had.) I'm waiting until we get closer to his targets before going short again.
It's funny, I drew the conclusion at the guilty verdict in the Trump trials in NY. My thesis was that if the US had fallen to the concept of jailing the political opponents of the ruling class, that was a significant change. It speaks to the end of the rule of law, which leads to questions about property rights. this is the second issue of this nature (the confiscation of Russian assets being the first) and I have to question how anxious foreign investors will be to invest in the US. they don't even need to sell, just stop buying is enough. but all that was before the boob-signing and Roaring Kitty, which seem to be other signals as well. for someone who has been in the markets for more than 40 years, this certainly has the feel of the excesses that come with a top.
Have to wonder if the left wing political bull market is over too. Pretty wild exit polling from France, Germany, etc.
Indeed, the pendulum swung too far left, it is reversing now in my opinion. the question is just how quickly
Oddly enough I thought the same thing that this has to be close to the top. The dude was up cumultive 146 million but down 285 million for the day. And there he was like the Mad Hatter grinning from ear to ear.
No worries QTR, one of these days you will be right. Meanwhile, I just follow the trend, invest in a bit of crypto long term, and enjoy the roller coaster ride.
And one day I might wake up with my head sown to the carpet. Who knows. :)
Your minions could abide such an event so long as you keep writing.
This GameStop mania is the last straw. This is an extremely frothy market and many stocks (including Nvidia) are severely over-hyped and overvalued. I would love to see these high fliers get a reality check and pull back at least 20-30%. Fingers crossed.
If it’s not dead it’s being wheeled into ER. The nvidia groupie photo is gonna be (in)famous after the crash. Of course timing all of this is the problem but if we’re wrong well at least we get to witness the first exception to the rule of “everything that goes up must come down”.
Thanks for great descriptions in the interim- like “stock-market-ComicCon“…
I think that number go up forever. Trees can grow to the sky. Just kidding. As an Aussie we are already in a recession if you take out the immigration wave, and see that per capita GDP fell. We haven’t collapsed yet but I feel that will come soon, but maybe 2025 and not 2024.
I've been thinking this whole thing is going to come crashing down any day since about 2013! This market has crushed the spirit of bears for many years now. I think it might take more white collar job losses to stop the relentless passive flow from dollar cost averaging into 401k total market index funds? Doesn't seem like we are there yet with mass layoffs. But a downturn at any time would never surprise me.
As have I. But now (honest, I swear, honest!) it really seems tough to figure out runway forward other than just straight rigging markets by the NY Fed buying (more?) index futures and bonds. It could very well happen, if it isn't happening already. But then gold is going to go. All JMO. - Q
Amazingly, I thought 2013 was the year it would hit the fan as well. But only time will tell when reality makes itself known to the markets.
I do attend a session every Wed evening, in a old church basement. I walk in, grab my bad Folgers coffee in a white styrofoam cup, sit down in a circle of chairs, and announce myself. "Hi, I'm WesternSky, I'm a perma bear".
Been going to a similar meeting but we got Maxwell House. Bullmania has really cut into our attendance. We need to make pessimism cool again
We've probably been in the same room at some point. Good thing those meetings are 'anonymous'. :)
Some speculate Gill is working with Cohen to fleece investors. I keep think of the Day Trader on the cover of News or Biz Week during DotCom Craze.
If I had to guess I wouldn't say he is. Saying on the livestream he isn't working with anyone, if he was, would be an immediate trip to jail and he's smart enough to know this. I think he's flying solo. Just my $0.02, as usual. Q
Great insight Chris, I believe we are long overdue for the feces to fly.
Excellent analysis as always. Slowly, then all at once seems to be the rule every time. Except with meme stocks paired with FOMO and AI and smooth-brained /r fanbois, all-at-once will be in the rear view.
Slowly and then all at once seems to be how I'm getting things wrong lately. HAGW -Q
Chris, excellent article. I am equally pessimistic and wrong on timing. Since I consent to pretty much nothing the government, medical experts, preachers or media has ever told me, I also enjoy 'sticking it to the man' in my own peaceful, non-compliant way.
How wicked the media truly is promoting the fairy tale of the 'Emperor New Clothes". Censorship is required to keep the lies going. The lies are so deep that each and every article or 'news item' they flash in front of me, deserves scrutiny and a high dose of skepticism. "Why" do they want the public to know this 'fact' now I ask myself when I give in to an hour of 'catching up with the current thing'.
The Jerry Springer like drama surrounding the Empire's newest presidential election keeps many engaged & enraged. It is most pitiful to watch friends 'debate' and devolve into wretched, dogmatic , deceived humans. The MOST substantive issues like the death and destruction of millions of humans through the virus/mRNA shots, pandemic policies (mental illness and soaring debt), war in Ukraine, chemical warfare on all of us (look at our waterways, soil, sky, food) not to mention the famine that effects many parts of the world today.
I had hoped that the dangers of the mRNA shots, which are evident, would have 'awakened' many. I was wrong. They have been trapped in the 'next new thing' that was fed to them like the lab rats they are.
As far as the market goes, I think NVDA will have a quick post-split decline in price and then many fools will jump in for another round of musical chairs. Why? Most people don't understand what a stock split really is and they will "perceive" a bargain in 'price'. There is always room for another 'pump and dump'.
Survival of the fittest is a natural, third dimension law.
I always appreciate your thoughtful comments on my pieces. You're proof that civil discourse isn't *quite* dead yet, though very close (sigh). I too have experienced the same when trying to have rational discussions with people. Emotion hijacks them and it goes from 'conversation' to 'panic response' quickly. That means its usually time to forget whatever issue I thought was important enough to argue, have a cold beer and play some chess.
Thank you for your kind words.
I 'worry' about household debt (especially the new gimmick that allow a purchase to be paid 'over 3 months') and, fortunately, successfully educated both my adult offspring to judiciously USE debt and not be a slave to it.
PS I had a bit of delightful fun in a comment exchange with a subscriber re: the 'celebrity signature on breast' post from the other day...such a relief to find some lightheartedness and he was such a wonderful playful sport about the exchange.
I'll pass on the beer and haven't tried chess with a gummie yet...
:) Thanks for your work. Truly appreciated.