All of this makes perfect sense. I can’t help but make the comment “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. You could make a similar argument about Amazon. This retail business doesn’t make money, and hasn’t for years. Yet they continue on masking business profits with a smart idea..cloud services. It’s hard to make sense of it all really.
Thanks Chris, this is what I asked for. Mark’s BlackBerry thesis is well made. 17 years ago, I was still doubtful that the nail was really in Palm’s coffin (of course it was). In 2005, if you had told me Blackberry would be on life support in 6 years, I would not have believed it. These things last, until they don’t. At that point, the ip and hard stuff starts getting sold off. It’s a shame; there is some worthwhile engineering in both Tesla and SpaceX (and yes, they have a lot of bozo implementation). Those two companies show that Musk understood what Elizabeth Holmes did not; you need things the audience can take home after the watching the circus, not just clowns, acrobats, and lion tamers (cue memories of seeing Ringling Brothers and Barnum & Bailey Circus at the Spectrum….the best part was the stupid flashlights my poor dad bought for us every time we went to replace the ones from the year before). Falcon 9s work reliably(though I do not believe the re-usability cost is what is claimed…I think landing and re-use is a capital burn for marketing sake and would love to be proven wrong). The Model S and 3(X and Y are derivative) have some interesting engineering. Those two niche flashlights are what is propping up the Marketing Cartel that is Musk Industries. When they run short, the clowns will be wearing frowns.
Looking at Mark's portfolio performance, I'd say his prognostication skills are on par with Jim Cramer. He chortles to himself about the blackberry which is an easy target with the benefit of hindsight. Given Mark's track record of failure, his stock picks in the mobile market would have been more likely to be shorting Apple than RIM.
For those who need the brief history lesson, Apple had Steve Jobs step away briefly and their share price languished. The return of Jobs to the helm brought in an era where Apple not only vanquished the once dominant Nokia, but handily dispatched a myriad of Android based competitors as well.
One can slander the product all they like, but Musk now has an established track record of success that day by day makes the deranged people who obsess over his failure seem like lunatics.
Nobody is infallible, so it seems possible if not probable that one day his detractors will have a chance for a small celebration. In the meantime, they are the comedic relief, more entertaining than twenty or so little people piling out of the clown car in the center ring at the circus. For that, I extend them my thanks and my earnest wishes that LOLs never end!
Dancing robot, Semi, Cybertruck, Solar Powered Supercharger Stations, Automated Snake Connector for Super Charger, Automated Quick Replacement Vehicle Battery Pack, RoboTaxi, Full Self Driving Coast to Coast, Cross Country Summon, Automated GigaFactory needing strobes to see the machines in operation, Solar Shingles, One Hour Body Shops........
Anyone who hasn't read the @StanphylCap twitter feed should definitely take the time to do so. This guy's Musk Derangement Syndrome make the lefties with TDS look rational by comparison.
Tell us where he’s wrong (other than thinking a few years ago that the market and regulators would cover down on Tesla like it’s 1988, not the roaring 2010’s)?
I don't recall claiming he was wrong. I simply pointed out the guy has a borderline psychotic unhealthy grudge against Tesla/Musk, likely born from the fact he was one of the leading short sellers who got caught holding the bag in the last massive effort to short Tesla out of existence. Most people take such things into account when evaluating someones opinion on a stock.
An honest evaluation of Tesla's value would evaluate the fact the company owns its entire supply and distribution chain, unlike any other auto manufacturer in the country. One would weigh that in against the fact the Federal govt is actively supporting his competition, specifically GM, and now has a hard on to shut him down based on his acquisition of Twitter.
Then again, considering the source, we aren't really having an honest conversation about Tesla's value, are we.
I'll agree that Spiegel is definitely Spiegel when it comes to Musk. Shorting in this era...I'm absolutely convinced it's a questionable strategy, up there with holding a light bulb in one hand and grabbing an electric eel in the other to light up the party. Two questions for you: are you sure Tesla owns it's entire supply and distribution chain? I'd assert that's just not true in the context of their supply chain going into the factories....and that's not true in terms of how the cars are transported prior to being delivered to customers (with the exceptions of regions near the factories). As for the China factory, Tesla doesn't own that factory. Solar is a failing subsidy business (though admittedly, the Powerwall and power storage business seems to hold it's own). Also, it's disingenuous to call out the Federal Govt. as against Tesla when Tesla has benefited from many State and Federal Subsidies. Finally, forget market cap and look at net revenue as compared to other auto companies; Tesla isn't doing it better. I could care less about the 'Rheee' against the twitter aquisition; I'm impressed the guy was smart enough to play to my fellow anti-woke crowd, even though I think he's just playing the room.
Does any foreign entity own it's Chinese factories? Answer: No
As far as domestic cost of operation, every other auto-manufacturer employs commissioned sales people working for privately owned dealerships. Tesla does not. I don't have exact numbers on how much more of the MSRP Tesla retains from those two items alone, but it stands to reason it is well in excess of 10%. All orders are made online, which means no price negotiation either.
As far as the Feds are concerned, you are living in denial. They decided to open investigations into Tesla the day after he announced a hostile takeover of Twitter. Biden's incoherent ramble about advances in electric vehicles which went on and on about GM and Ford didnt mention Tesla once, despite the fact Tesla represents more than half of the market. None of this is exactly subtle. The fact the regime announced the creation of a Federal Ministry of Truth to police speech should have clued you into the fact the Feds are in a full blown panic if nothing else did.
These things are largely self-apparent. In my opinion, those who dismiss them tend to be members of the woke cult/religion or some other type of ideologue (like Spiegel) to whom facts are largely meaningless.
I also don't think Musk is "playing the room". I was happier with my TSLA shares when he kept his damn mouth shut. Creating adversaries in the federal government is never good for business.
With that said, the day he announced he was taking over twitter, I dropped 6 digits on a new Tesla. I considered it a political donation.
So where was I wrong? Apple didn’t open their own contracted factories in China and doesn’t claim “advantages” because of it. Sales: that guy working at your local Ford dealership works for the independently owned dealership, not for Ford Motor Co. Does Ford use the dealer distribution model? Yes. Is it better? There’s room for debate. But at the end of the day, by Tesla’s own numbers, they do not earn as much. Online windows by themselves are neutral in practice; it’s not some type of magical financial advantage. It’s neat, and different, but not good or bad. For the sake of argument, I’ve bought ‘normal’ cars online, with no price negotiation, at invoice. As for the current administration, dogs barking doesn’t change the fact that the previous two administrations benefited Tesla passively and actively, and Tesla still benefits from Federal and state programs. As for denial, we are talking the car market, not just EV’s, and Tesla doesn’t have half of that. 6 digits? You don’t need to throw your Benjamin’s around for style points here; we’re all friends. Hopefully you didn’t cheap out and bought the Model S Plaid (and got them to replace the steering wheel). That’s one of the Taycan’s biggest achievements; forcing Tesla to improve sustained cooling.
From a profitability standpoint the "better" of the "dealer distribution model" is not even remotely up for debate. Dealerships are highly profitable businesses that take a percentage cut off the MSRP and 100% of the profits from the highly profitable service business. Perhaps you were arguing the "better" of such an arrangement to the consumer, which perhaps is indeed up for debate, but that isn't what we were talking about, was it.
Your other arguments were equally poor.
On purchase price negotiation, everyone haggles at dealerships. It's why the price is called MSRP rather than MRP. Tesla, otoh, runs an MRP business model.
On the "dogs barking", nice topic change. Every manufacturer benefits from the same EV subsidies (up until the most recent legislation that tried to explicitly exclude Tesla). Who cares? Not every manufacturer is being targeted by the feds.
On my Tesla purchase, every model X is over 6 digits. Models S and Y push over 6 digits once you start adding features. Its an interesting fact to consider when it seems like one of every eight cars on the road in California is a Tesla (I remember noting the same thing about Toyota Prius a decade ago). Even the cheap model 3 you won't take home for under 50k. Compare that pricing to the hideous looking competing products from Ford and GM. The price point coupled with the popularity is another reason TSLA stock withstands the slings and arrows of people like Spiegel.
I only mentioned the purchase as a wink and a nod to your assertion that Musk played to the "non-woke". I definitely made the purchase as a political donation, but I would never use my anecdote as representative of anything. I do, however, wonder how many others did the same.
All of this makes perfect sense. I can’t help but make the comment “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. You could make a similar argument about Amazon. This retail business doesn’t make money, and hasn’t for years. Yet they continue on masking business profits with a smart idea..cloud services. It’s hard to make sense of it all really.
“The fund remains very net short, as I continue to believe we’re about to enter a bear market for U.S. stocks as the U.S. economic slowdown worsens”
Mark Spiegel - Aug 2019
Since inception, Stanphyl Capital is up 71% while the S&P is up 338%. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Thanks Chris, this is what I asked for. Mark’s BlackBerry thesis is well made. 17 years ago, I was still doubtful that the nail was really in Palm’s coffin (of course it was). In 2005, if you had told me Blackberry would be on life support in 6 years, I would not have believed it. These things last, until they don’t. At that point, the ip and hard stuff starts getting sold off. It’s a shame; there is some worthwhile engineering in both Tesla and SpaceX (and yes, they have a lot of bozo implementation). Those two companies show that Musk understood what Elizabeth Holmes did not; you need things the audience can take home after the watching the circus, not just clowns, acrobats, and lion tamers (cue memories of seeing Ringling Brothers and Barnum & Bailey Circus at the Spectrum….the best part was the stupid flashlights my poor dad bought for us every time we went to replace the ones from the year before). Falcon 9s work reliably(though I do not believe the re-usability cost is what is claimed…I think landing and re-use is a capital burn for marketing sake and would love to be proven wrong). The Model S and 3(X and Y are derivative) have some interesting engineering. Those two niche flashlights are what is propping up the Marketing Cartel that is Musk Industries. When they run short, the clowns will be wearing frowns.
Looking at Mark's portfolio performance, I'd say his prognostication skills are on par with Jim Cramer. He chortles to himself about the blackberry which is an easy target with the benefit of hindsight. Given Mark's track record of failure, his stock picks in the mobile market would have been more likely to be shorting Apple than RIM.
For those who need the brief history lesson, Apple had Steve Jobs step away briefly and their share price languished. The return of Jobs to the helm brought in an era where Apple not only vanquished the once dominant Nokia, but handily dispatched a myriad of Android based competitors as well.
One can slander the product all they like, but Musk now has an established track record of success that day by day makes the deranged people who obsess over his failure seem like lunatics.
Nobody is infallible, so it seems possible if not probable that one day his detractors will have a chance for a small celebration. In the meantime, they are the comedic relief, more entertaining than twenty or so little people piling out of the clown car in the center ring at the circus. For that, I extend them my thanks and my earnest wishes that LOLs never end!
Dancing robot, Semi, Cybertruck, Solar Powered Supercharger Stations, Automated Snake Connector for Super Charger, Automated Quick Replacement Vehicle Battery Pack, RoboTaxi, Full Self Driving Coast to Coast, Cross Country Summon, Automated GigaFactory needing strobes to see the machines in operation, Solar Shingles, One Hour Body Shops........
Anyone who hasn't read the @StanphylCap twitter feed should definitely take the time to do so. This guy's Musk Derangement Syndrome make the lefties with TDS look rational by comparison.
Tell us where he’s wrong (other than thinking a few years ago that the market and regulators would cover down on Tesla like it’s 1988, not the roaring 2010’s)?
I'd love to hear it - other than "stock price, bro!"
I don't recall claiming he was wrong. I simply pointed out the guy has a borderline psychotic unhealthy grudge against Tesla/Musk, likely born from the fact he was one of the leading short sellers who got caught holding the bag in the last massive effort to short Tesla out of existence. Most people take such things into account when evaluating someones opinion on a stock.
An honest evaluation of Tesla's value would evaluate the fact the company owns its entire supply and distribution chain, unlike any other auto manufacturer in the country. One would weigh that in against the fact the Federal govt is actively supporting his competition, specifically GM, and now has a hard on to shut him down based on his acquisition of Twitter.
Then again, considering the source, we aren't really having an honest conversation about Tesla's value, are we.
For the Raven.... "But the stock price bro!" lol
#DERP
I'll agree that Spiegel is definitely Spiegel when it comes to Musk. Shorting in this era...I'm absolutely convinced it's a questionable strategy, up there with holding a light bulb in one hand and grabbing an electric eel in the other to light up the party. Two questions for you: are you sure Tesla owns it's entire supply and distribution chain? I'd assert that's just not true in the context of their supply chain going into the factories....and that's not true in terms of how the cars are transported prior to being delivered to customers (with the exceptions of regions near the factories). As for the China factory, Tesla doesn't own that factory. Solar is a failing subsidy business (though admittedly, the Powerwall and power storage business seems to hold it's own). Also, it's disingenuous to call out the Federal Govt. as against Tesla when Tesla has benefited from many State and Federal Subsidies. Finally, forget market cap and look at net revenue as compared to other auto companies; Tesla isn't doing it better. I could care less about the 'Rheee' against the twitter aquisition; I'm impressed the guy was smart enough to play to my fellow anti-woke crowd, even though I think he's just playing the room.
Does any foreign entity own it's Chinese factories? Answer: No
As far as domestic cost of operation, every other auto-manufacturer employs commissioned sales people working for privately owned dealerships. Tesla does not. I don't have exact numbers on how much more of the MSRP Tesla retains from those two items alone, but it stands to reason it is well in excess of 10%. All orders are made online, which means no price negotiation either.
As far as the Feds are concerned, you are living in denial. They decided to open investigations into Tesla the day after he announced a hostile takeover of Twitter. Biden's incoherent ramble about advances in electric vehicles which went on and on about GM and Ford didnt mention Tesla once, despite the fact Tesla represents more than half of the market. None of this is exactly subtle. The fact the regime announced the creation of a Federal Ministry of Truth to police speech should have clued you into the fact the Feds are in a full blown panic if nothing else did.
These things are largely self-apparent. In my opinion, those who dismiss them tend to be members of the woke cult/religion or some other type of ideologue (like Spiegel) to whom facts are largely meaningless.
I also don't think Musk is "playing the room". I was happier with my TSLA shares when he kept his damn mouth shut. Creating adversaries in the federal government is never good for business.
With that said, the day he announced he was taking over twitter, I dropped 6 digits on a new Tesla. I considered it a political donation.
So where was I wrong? Apple didn’t open their own contracted factories in China and doesn’t claim “advantages” because of it. Sales: that guy working at your local Ford dealership works for the independently owned dealership, not for Ford Motor Co. Does Ford use the dealer distribution model? Yes. Is it better? There’s room for debate. But at the end of the day, by Tesla’s own numbers, they do not earn as much. Online windows by themselves are neutral in practice; it’s not some type of magical financial advantage. It’s neat, and different, but not good or bad. For the sake of argument, I’ve bought ‘normal’ cars online, with no price negotiation, at invoice. As for the current administration, dogs barking doesn’t change the fact that the previous two administrations benefited Tesla passively and actively, and Tesla still benefits from Federal and state programs. As for denial, we are talking the car market, not just EV’s, and Tesla doesn’t have half of that. 6 digits? You don’t need to throw your Benjamin’s around for style points here; we’re all friends. Hopefully you didn’t cheap out and bought the Model S Plaid (and got them to replace the steering wheel). That’s one of the Taycan’s biggest achievements; forcing Tesla to improve sustained cooling.
From a profitability standpoint the "better" of the "dealer distribution model" is not even remotely up for debate. Dealerships are highly profitable businesses that take a percentage cut off the MSRP and 100% of the profits from the highly profitable service business. Perhaps you were arguing the "better" of such an arrangement to the consumer, which perhaps is indeed up for debate, but that isn't what we were talking about, was it.
Your other arguments were equally poor.
On purchase price negotiation, everyone haggles at dealerships. It's why the price is called MSRP rather than MRP. Tesla, otoh, runs an MRP business model.
On the "dogs barking", nice topic change. Every manufacturer benefits from the same EV subsidies (up until the most recent legislation that tried to explicitly exclude Tesla). Who cares? Not every manufacturer is being targeted by the feds.
On my Tesla purchase, every model X is over 6 digits. Models S and Y push over 6 digits once you start adding features. Its an interesting fact to consider when it seems like one of every eight cars on the road in California is a Tesla (I remember noting the same thing about Toyota Prius a decade ago). Even the cheap model 3 you won't take home for under 50k. Compare that pricing to the hideous looking competing products from Ford and GM. The price point coupled with the popularity is another reason TSLA stock withstands the slings and arrows of people like Spiegel.
I only mentioned the purchase as a wink and a nod to your assertion that Musk played to the "non-woke". I definitely made the purchase as a political donation, but I would never use my anecdote as representative of anything. I do, however, wonder how many others did the same.
I like seeing the Buffet Indicator, something that can turn a bull into a bear real quick.