I don’t know, Chris, but your recent writings have been spot-on fire…not that your previous articles didn’t have the same punch…it’s just - different…and it feels more prescient…
One of the nice things about getting old Chris (I’m mid Gen X) js you learn there is little you can do about people’s stupidity.
Think of it this way. Anyone too young to have experienced 2000 and 2008 (I exclude 2020 because it was an exogenous shock) has decades to recover from the upcoming mess.
Anyone who did experience 2000 and 2008 should know to insulate their portfolio from the coming madness. If you are too lazy or greedy to do so, hard to have sympathy for you. It doesn’t take much time or brains to put your 401 K in a targeted retirement fund that will automatically reduce your exposure to equities as you get close to retirement.
Pretty new subscriber here. Your perspective and writing is awesome. I am not disappointed!
As I was lying awake for a time last night I thought of this.. The Federal Reserve FOMC is tomorrow (Wed June 17th)! I wonder if they are going to spike this punch and spoil this party?! I see your logic in this being a systemic issue, and I would be surprised if they are not watching this too. If Kevin Warsh is anything the salty individual he is supposed to be. he WILL mention this IPO!
First unlock is at earnings with 20% of float or 30% of float dependent on if stock price > 135. Remember that only 4.5% is out there right now with the greenshoe of 80M shares. So expect to see a massive stock price drop as pre-ipo gets rich day after earnings. After that you can see the remaining unlocks and see how they work and projected stock price. Day 180 = all remaining float available.
The only thing I’m not sure about is the biggest wild card and that is hype. So these projections are without all the news announcements and contracts they tally up, nor the M&A. This is how every IPO from here on out is going to be brought to market and I’m here for it.
Yeah I'm pretty new to this IPO stuff but it seems like this IPO is engineered to stabilize the price. With the index inclusions and the tiered lockups. And some of the retail shares maybe all of them were sold with a condition of locking them up for a while too to stop people from trying to time the market and cash in on a quick buck. Also a 30% allocation for retail which is unusual and I don't know what effect it will have. My spider sense said pass. So I did. But it's going to be interesting to watch the next 6 months. 🤔
I don’t think we will see anything surprising from market forces. Shorts eventually step in. Price discovery makes itself known in 6 months. You got the fake news CNBC cycle, the hype news X cycle and the truth all rolled into a big ball of shit.
Real shit is going to come when all this top secret stuff SoaceX has been shipping into space for Golden Dome makes itself known. People just need to realize orbital compute is bullshit.
I don't think it is a coincidence that the last runoff for the Midterm Election 2026 is on Dec 12 - exactly 6 months from the IPO date. That is the date when the Midterms are truly over.
Musk has to know he is playing with fire by egging on retail. "Egress" said the sign at the museum, and fools who followed it suddenly were unwittingly on the outside looking in.
My dear Raven -- just because a stock, or the Market, doesn't move the way you "expect" it to, doesn't mean the Markets are "Permanently Broken". It just might mean you need to alter your Theses as to how Markets operate. There were a lot of ""Supposed To's" in your article.
Markets are not Rational and you prove that with every Market Article you write, but you have yet to consider the alternative. Instead -- "I'm wrong" seems to be your dogmatic argument to dig in even deeper. Rigidity and Dogma are killers for anyone in the Market. Give yourself a break and consider the alternative. I don't enjoy seeing you frustrated.
This Market actually does make sense to me but that's only because I am looking at it through a different lense than you. Admittedly, one that very few are willing to try.....or are aware of.
I don't expect, or need a reponce, but I wish you a wonderful evening.
A Massive Bear Market is already set in stone - it is just a matter of when. This is bigger than all of us and I really appreciate your concern. I really do.
I'm going to say something that will sound very strange, but I will try anyway-- Elliott Wave has proven to map out extreme events in the future. What the particulars are, are unknown until they happen. It is the news of the event that fills in the wave sequence and not the other way around. I know, too weird...but it has proven itself true, time and time again.
It just might be SpaceX that will be the Catalist for the coming structure. I don't know. But something very, very big IS coming and I just want everyone here to be prepared - but buy and hold is not going to work.
If the SPX can claim new Highs, an alternative structure might get us to the Midterms, or beyond, but this week should be very telling, which is way I posted the "Alert".
I don’t know, Chris, but your recent writings have been spot-on fire…not that your previous articles didn’t have the same punch…it’s just - different…and it feels more prescient…
forget dot-com…we’re in tulip territory now…
One of the nice things about getting old Chris (I’m mid Gen X) js you learn there is little you can do about people’s stupidity.
Think of it this way. Anyone too young to have experienced 2000 and 2008 (I exclude 2020 because it was an exogenous shock) has decades to recover from the upcoming mess.
Anyone who did experience 2000 and 2008 should know to insulate their portfolio from the coming madness. If you are too lazy or greedy to do so, hard to have sympathy for you. It doesn’t take much time or brains to put your 401 K in a targeted retirement fund that will automatically reduce your exposure to equities as you get close to retirement.
Yeah I need to go meditate and make some music :)
Focking A, man. That’s deep.
The market logic of concentration is obvious and self reinforcing. Eventually, like Highlanders, there can be only one.
does anyone have change for a trillion dollar bill? I need to buy more chips for the casino
I think this is the best thing you have written since I became a member.
Hiya Chris,
Pretty new subscriber here. Your perspective and writing is awesome. I am not disappointed!
As I was lying awake for a time last night I thought of this.. The Federal Reserve FOMC is tomorrow (Wed June 17th)! I wonder if they are going to spike this punch and spoil this party?! I see your logic in this being a systemic issue, and I would be surprised if they are not watching this too. If Kevin Warsh is anything the salty individual he is supposed to be. he WILL mention this IPO!
This is what happened in Canada in the 2000 tech wreck. Nortel became 30%+ in the index. But the numbers were not as large- not even close.
https://resilientportfolio.substack.com/p/chapter-section-the-illusion-of-diversification
I know, the Dotcom era is starting to look quaint by comparison.
First unlock is at earnings with 20% of float or 30% of float dependent on if stock price > 135. Remember that only 4.5% is out there right now with the greenshoe of 80M shares. So expect to see a massive stock price drop as pre-ipo gets rich day after earnings. After that you can see the remaining unlocks and see how they work and projected stock price. Day 180 = all remaining float available.
The only thing I’m not sure about is the biggest wild card and that is hype. So these projections are without all the news announcements and contracts they tally up, nor the M&A. This is how every IPO from here on out is going to be brought to market and I’m here for it.
https://substack.com/@escapevelociraptor/note/c-274859053?r=fm9p9&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
Yeah I'm pretty new to this IPO stuff but it seems like this IPO is engineered to stabilize the price. With the index inclusions and the tiered lockups. And some of the retail shares maybe all of them were sold with a condition of locking them up for a while too to stop people from trying to time the market and cash in on a quick buck. Also a 30% allocation for retail which is unusual and I don't know what effect it will have. My spider sense said pass. So I did. But it's going to be interesting to watch the next 6 months. 🤔
I don’t think we will see anything surprising from market forces. Shorts eventually step in. Price discovery makes itself known in 6 months. You got the fake news CNBC cycle, the hype news X cycle and the truth all rolled into a big ball of shit.
Real shit is going to come when all this top secret stuff SoaceX has been shipping into space for Golden Dome makes itself known. People just need to realize orbital compute is bullshit.
I don't think it is a coincidence that the last runoff for the Midterm Election 2026 is on Dec 12 - exactly 6 months from the IPO date. That is the date when the Midterms are truly over.
I guess I don't really know what SpaceX plans to do. Are they planning to launch Katy Perry into space on a weekly basis?
SpaceX is the new BitCoin.
Nailed it. Just another symptom of the everything bagel bubble. The casino runs until it doesn't.
MOAB, the Mother Of All Bubbles.
All this with nominal interest rates still high, with stagflation for the common people. Unprecedented.
To do: put in stop loss for s&p 500 index. Put in limit order for SpaceX at 70.
I believe in reversion to the mean. this reversion is going to be a doozy. Tick tock.
Brawndo.
Musk has to know he is playing with fire by egging on retail. "Egress" said the sign at the museum, and fools who followed it suddenly were unwittingly on the outside looking in.
My dear Raven -- just because a stock, or the Market, doesn't move the way you "expect" it to, doesn't mean the Markets are "Permanently Broken". It just might mean you need to alter your Theses as to how Markets operate. There were a lot of ""Supposed To's" in your article.
Markets are not Rational and you prove that with every Market Article you write, but you have yet to consider the alternative. Instead -- "I'm wrong" seems to be your dogmatic argument to dig in even deeper. Rigidity and Dogma are killers for anyone in the Market. Give yourself a break and consider the alternative. I don't enjoy seeing you frustrated.
This Market actually does make sense to me but that's only because I am looking at it through a different lense than you. Admittedly, one that very few are willing to try.....or are aware of.
I don't expect, or need a reponce, but I wish you a wonderful evening.
This is bigger than me being wrong. I don’t care about that. It’s about what this thing could do the economy if it becomes a $10 trillion air pocket.
A Massive Bear Market is already set in stone - it is just a matter of when. This is bigger than all of us and I really appreciate your concern. I really do.
I'm going to say something that will sound very strange, but I will try anyway-- Elliott Wave has proven to map out extreme events in the future. What the particulars are, are unknown until they happen. It is the news of the event that fills in the wave sequence and not the other way around. I know, too weird...but it has proven itself true, time and time again.
It just might be SpaceX that will be the Catalist for the coming structure. I don't know. But something very, very big IS coming and I just want everyone here to be prepared - but buy and hold is not going to work.
If the SPX can claim new Highs, an alternative structure might get us to the Midterms, or beyond, but this week should be very telling, which is way I posted the "Alert".