I'm sad for future generations of Americans who will pay for the mistakes that we are making under the sick, misguided and downright ignorant claim that we are ensuring their future prosperity.
I think that replacing the dollar will be harder than you lay out. But it is not as hard as the consensus. Look at the rouble versus the dollar and euro
The "hurr durr, nothing can replace the dollar, muh international trade, muh liquidity, muh reserves, hurr durr" crowd is missing their own point. YES--the dollar is inextricable from the modern global economy, and therefore nothing can replace it as the reserve currency for that system. HOWEVER, their contention that "dollar must therefore remain reserve currency for the foreseeable future" relies upon the ASSUMPTION that the modern global economy will remain intact for the foreseeable future. And that assumption is rather tenuous, given the cascading nullification we are seeing with the old agreements that comprised the modern global economy.
In short...why don't any of these people ever think to ask:
1.) What if we are entering an era where there is no 'modern global economy' to speak of?
2.) What if we are exiting a period of omni-lateral arrangements, and re-entering a period of bi-lateral agreements?
3.) What if there simply IS NO reserve currency?
The "Its the Dollar or nothing" crowd misses the obvious possibility: NOTHING.
I think they know and understand perfectly (how could they not?) and are just lying to the American people. Why shouldn't they--what would be the benefit of telling the truth? Lying is the U.S. govt's normal course of action.
History teaches us that debasing your currency leads to devaluation and demise. It's just that history is longer than the 40 odd years the Fed has taken advantage of reserve currency status to run the printing press.
Yellen understands, but she can't say it out loud or the system collapses sooner than the NWO wants. Controlled demolition to keep the peons in line.
Future generations will have to step up to the Financial challenges of there time. The American kids have probably had it too good and easy for the last 20 years + and it’s time for a challenge that will push them to learn and grow. Or at least that’s the silver lining of these times ; )
Chris here comes a question: lets assume, that USD is really a death currency. That implies, that one should also run away from any position on NYSE. Based on that, where would you deploy your money? I am afraid, one cannot escape the fiat system anywhere, so where would you go? Would you open an broker account in Shanghai?
Since Japan and the Euro Zone are still engaged in QE and zero rates without the reserve currency, would you think the Yen and Euro would crash before the Dollar? I think people underestimate the appetite for the Eurozone and Western friendly nations in Asia to hold onto the US Dollar when the alternative would result in an extreme transfer of wealth to Russia. However untenable.
The emperor has had no cloths for 30 years, but the machine works in mysterious ways, make money and get re elected, keep the sheep in line is the only goal
Well written as always !!
The only future prosperity that is seemingly being assured is that of the global cabal. Even that is not possible if the rest of the world is destitute, not for any length of time anyway.
I like when “Past performance is not indicative of future results” is followed by "invest wisely"
Do you think Yellen and Pelosi go to the same stylist in SF? Asking for a friend....
To be honest, I believe it's a problem of perception and difference of timeframes: your thesis is that the dollar is going to go to zero. Most people would probably agree with that depending on what timeframe you attach to it: "within a year", "in five decades", "eventually".
The dollar has been proclaimed dead for decades often by the same people or philosophies. It hasn't happened, yet. So it's pretty fair to assume that perma-bears aren't a) great at timing and b) don't put their money where their mouth is most of the time, because if they did, they'd be dead poor by now, especially when thinking about the SPX. So in essence it's a pretty bad choice to pay them much attention.
My favourite quote is this: "Except, of course, what we know is that these people aren’t wrong. They just haven’t been proven right yet." If you're not attaching a timeframe to your predictions, you can always say that and avoid accountability while in 30 (or 50 or 100) years from now you can say that you've always known. Basically this is cheating yourself to the benefit of hindsight.
As for what Yellen said above: she's probably right. It's pretty hard to be a reserve currency when you have capital controls, no free markets and no rule of law.
QTR - Given the situation globally, and that someone at the top is orchestrating this, what is the genuine alternative to the current crop of fiat currencies? We know that some kind of digital currency is on its way, but surely this will not be what the banks and treasuries cling to. Gold is a useful asset in todays thinking, but its value can be flattened if the big holders flood the market. Are there alternative opportunities in the metals of the future: lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese (batteries), rare earth elements (magnets for motors, catalysts for batteries) etc.