Howard Ruff: "Sell everything" Howard Beale: "I'm mad as Hell and I'm not tgoing to take it anymore." Door number 2 esp when fed governors front run the market...
If I sat on my couch eating popcorn from when I thought the sh1t was going to hit the fan, I would weigh about 600 lbs by now. Like a bad B movie, the zombie keeps getting back up….
I’m with you here. Like that old saying about the market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent. It does feel different this time though. I think the biggest issue of the above points is the moving away from the petro dollar.
The question I have with the market is this question of dollar devaluation. If the dollar is devaluated and the inflation is higher that ever is it possible the market pricing is simply a matter of that devaluation? Is this a silly analysis or is the answer right in front us because of this point. This is a real question any insight?
As the dollar devalues, a company's assets rise in nominal value (likely constant in real terms). The debt is fixed in nominal terms (drops in real terms). The harder one is revenue, which should rise in nominal terms (hopefully constant in real terms). Those provide a good tail wind for 'most' stocks!
My take: If things unwind slowly, the above facts will make stocks perform great! However if things break quick, the economy tanks, and company revenue collapses, we probably have a huge drop.
I think we have been in the slow unwind mode for 50+ years, which is why stocks have done so well.
Probably best to be hedged against the dollar losing it's reserve status with some metals (5%??) and enough foreign stock exposure (35%??).
Look at Germany stocks in the 1930 and Venezuela a few years back to see stock market examples.
I had caught on to the Fed's BS around 2019 and started cautioning some of those closest to me about the potential hazards littered within financial markets. And this is BEFORE the historic blow off rally post-covid. I'm pretty much at a loss for words anymore when I look at where we are at. 40% above the mean for stocks to GDP comparison? Wow... Makes us look like the boy who cried wolf to those we've been trying to warn. I've learned to simply put my nose in my bourbon glass, hug my guns, and continue buying gold/silver. You've been great comfort in knowing I'm not the only one in the world who still appreciates sound money and Austrian economic theory. It will surely win out eventually... even if I have to put it on my grave. Love the work Chris keep at it!
As far as the stock market goes, what bear market? At most the major indexes experienced an average correction. On the bigger picture, there are so many market participants that think making lots of money from investing/trading is easy. It is inevitable that they will be proven wrong, and in a most dramatic way. I don't know what the future will look like, but in my lifetime, there have always been attractive investments, based on conservative, fundamental analysis.
Jim Cramer is a real time saver. When someone starts a sentence with 'Jim Cramer said', you know that you don't have to listen to another word that comes out of their mouth. Silver lining:)
Cramer is the same asshat that said the US military should be used to force everyone to take the clot shot. He is wrong on so many different levels. Just from an ethical point of view, what he advocated is against the Nuremberg Code which the US signed. This is exactly what the nazis did to Jews in the concentration camps. From a medical scientific point of view, recent evidence shows the clot shot does not work and there are lots of people that have suffered severe side-effects.
And I am expected to take his advice on financial markets? Please....
I don't disagree. Many more points that can be added to your list (e.g., confidence in integrity of elections, dollar hedgemony challenges, Fed competency, inflation and food scarcity impact on social stability). But, therefore what? What's the call?
I am on-board with you. Love the work. MSM can't have it both ways based on what's transpired the past two years - the stock market's mercurial rise is not based on anything but phantom money. That's never stood the test of time - so how can it now? I agree.
"I might be early but I'm not wrong." "It's the same thing, Mike." The Big Short.
Howard Ruff: "Sell everything" Howard Beale: "I'm mad as Hell and I'm not tgoing to take it anymore." Door number 2 esp when fed governors front run the market...
If I sat on my couch eating popcorn from when I thought the sh1t was going to hit the fan, I would weigh about 600 lbs by now. Like a bad B movie, the zombie keeps getting back up….
I’m with you here. Like that old saying about the market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent. It does feel different this time though. I think the biggest issue of the above points is the moving away from the petro dollar.
The question I have with the market is this question of dollar devaluation. If the dollar is devaluated and the inflation is higher that ever is it possible the market pricing is simply a matter of that devaluation? Is this a silly analysis or is the answer right in front us because of this point. This is a real question any insight?
As the dollar devalues, a company's assets rise in nominal value (likely constant in real terms). The debt is fixed in nominal terms (drops in real terms). The harder one is revenue, which should rise in nominal terms (hopefully constant in real terms). Those provide a good tail wind for 'most' stocks!
My take: If things unwind slowly, the above facts will make stocks perform great! However if things break quick, the economy tanks, and company revenue collapses, we probably have a huge drop.
I think we have been in the slow unwind mode for 50+ years, which is why stocks have done so well.
Probably best to be hedged against the dollar losing it's reserve status with some metals (5%??) and enough foreign stock exposure (35%??).
Look at Germany stocks in the 1930 and Venezuela a few years back to see stock market examples.
I had caught on to the Fed's BS around 2019 and started cautioning some of those closest to me about the potential hazards littered within financial markets. And this is BEFORE the historic blow off rally post-covid. I'm pretty much at a loss for words anymore when I look at where we are at. 40% above the mean for stocks to GDP comparison? Wow... Makes us look like the boy who cried wolf to those we've been trying to warn. I've learned to simply put my nose in my bourbon glass, hug my guns, and continue buying gold/silver. You've been great comfort in knowing I'm not the only one in the world who still appreciates sound money and Austrian economic theory. It will surely win out eventually... even if I have to put it on my grave. Love the work Chris keep at it!
Hugging your guns...hmmm. I'm cleaning and oiling mine. Kevlar vest? Check. Need a K pot...I buy an ounce of AU and a pound of Pb a month.
As far as the stock market goes, what bear market? At most the major indexes experienced an average correction. On the bigger picture, there are so many market participants that think making lots of money from investing/trading is easy. It is inevitable that they will be proven wrong, and in a most dramatic way. I don't know what the future will look like, but in my lifetime, there have always been attractive investments, based on conservative, fundamental analysis.
“Where’s the damn dam tour?” 😆
Sobering take and counter to BS financial MSM thank you
Cramer is always wrong, I spoke to him once, kind of a rude guy
Jim Cramer is a real time saver. When someone starts a sentence with 'Jim Cramer said', you know that you don't have to listen to another word that comes out of their mouth. Silver lining:)
Being right would be a lot easier if just timing wasn't so hard...
That's what she said
That you’re not on CNBC gives you far more credibility. Stand proud.
Bill Fleckenstein call it Bubblevision. Cramer: BUY BUY BUY Bear Steans a week before Dick Fuld helped finish gutting and scaling it
Been following the Elizabeth Holmes/Theranos story lately. He was a big fan of hers too, wasn't he?
Cramer is the same asshat that said the US military should be used to force everyone to take the clot shot. He is wrong on so many different levels. Just from an ethical point of view, what he advocated is against the Nuremberg Code which the US signed. This is exactly what the nazis did to Jews in the concentration camps. From a medical scientific point of view, recent evidence shows the clot shot does not work and there are lots of people that have suffered severe side-effects.
And I am expected to take his advice on financial markets? Please....
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/583603-cnbc-host-suggests-nationwide-vaccine-mandate-have-the-military-run-it
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Supply-Chain/Apple-to-cut-iPhone-AirPods-output-amid-Ukraine-war-uncertainty
I don't disagree. Many more points that can be added to your list (e.g., confidence in integrity of elections, dollar hedgemony challenges, Fed competency, inflation and food scarcity impact on social stability). But, therefore what? What's the call?
I am on-board with you. Love the work. MSM can't have it both ways based on what's transpired the past two years - the stock market's mercurial rise is not based on anything but phantom money. That's never stood the test of time - so how can it now? I agree.