Excellent essay, provides much food for thought. Much depends on the time frames used to analyze performance. Looking back one year from today, the Gold Bug Index (HUI) is down 34% from its high on 3/2/26. MSTR is down 38% from 3/2/26. Not so far apart. Schiff chooses timeframes that match his thesis about bitcoin, ignoring time frames where bitcoin or MSTR far exceeded the HUI, which I use as representative for gold performance.
I get pimped constantly by ads for income from gold (FD:I’m out & out long ago on all precious & crypto). They’re both missing the point: neither are currency; neither have income; neither produce squat.
But blockchain is fast becoming the stable coin rails backed by US Treasuries. Imagine a world where a merchant takes a credit card and it settles immediately instead of 1 week.
Or a tanker’s cargo is settled as quickly as the manifest shows it leaves the dock empty & delivered instead of a week through SWIFT.
That’s where we are and neither of those promote gold or BTC.
Yes, I think this is where Ripple may have an advantage with the XRP Ledger, ie the XRP Blockchain. The XRP ledger can use stablecoin directly on the the ledger while also doing coversion. Soo, the Payer=> send stableUSD to payee in stable EUR. No XRP is needed other than to pay the network fee. I think this undercut any long term bull for XRP crypto. But these transactions can settle in like 10 seconds vs days for swift.
Great article. As one analyst on Bloomberg recently said, "the narrative follows the price, not the other way around." CNBC in particular is guilty of hyping whatever is working. Bloomberg Intelligence is a better in my opinion, with less entertaining but more grounded and analytical guests.
To your excellent point, another way of saying that is -- news conforms to Mathematical Wave Structure (which determines price) and not the other way around. I find that fascinating --and profitable
Ha! During the Dot Com Bubble/Crash, Goldman Sach's Chief Investmant Strategist Abby Joseph Cohen was THE Media Sell-Side Queen of CNBC. Everyone kissed her ring -- Utterly shameless. I hung on every word.....until I didn't. Nothing has changed.
Re: MSTR - "buy low sell high" sounds easy, but is one of the HARDEST things to do because of how humans are wired. I am Stalking MSTR for a Tradable Relief Bounce with a Target High Price Fibbonacci range of $106.50 - $121.50 before a final generational bottom zone of $60.00 - $65.00. The entire process to a Final Bottom could play out in weeks. MSTR will rise before Bitcoins bottom because sentiment moves faster in highly leveraged equity structures than it does in Spot Assets.
MSTR is currently trading at an 18% discount to its net asset value (0.82x mNAV).
Three things I am looking for next week:
1) Huge climactic selling volume with price supported by heavy Institutional Buying.
2) Universal Pessimism (almost there)
3) Positive Divergance on both the Daily and Weekly MACD (setting up nicely)
When Bitcoin bottoms it is projected to then climb to $200K -$300K range in a Supercycle Wave IV advance.
One day, when it will be common for people to say “remember Bitcoin” at family gatherings, they will make a movie about the buffoonery that was the BTC “market.”
It will star a future detransitioned Ellen Page as Michael Saylor. A role which will win her an Academy Award and ultimately the fabled EGOT. In her speech, she will mention her time method acting as a young pubeless man and also thank Christian Bayle for his heartfelt portrayal of trans man, and famed Wall Street hedge fund manager, Michael Burry, in the “The Big Short.”
The villain of the movie will be Larry Fink, a testosterone gel toting megalomaniac, who spends the movie suppressing both the price of BTC and Michael Saylor’s manhood. Fink will be played by Liberace, resurrected as an AI actor. Fink will commune with a dark, ominous figure throughout the movie, who (spoilers) is Jeffrey Epstein in a hooded brown robe. He will be played by himself.
At the end, both will die by Irony, Michael Saylor’s bright pink Glock 17. We freeze and fade over an etching on Irony’s slide. Through flitters of gun smoke and glitter still looking for an escape, we see “Amat Victoria Curam”
I see the bar is always open at your house. If you need more tortured souls, you might consider resurrecting Colonel Kurtz from "Apocalypse Now" or James Dean from any Film.....You're an interesting read.
A paper loss, is just that. Not a concern until I need to sell the asset. Investor's still get their "11.5% dividend" on a par value, as is my understanding, regardless the product's market price. I am actually intrigued with a $73 STRC price, since that would mean I'd be getting closer to 15.8% yield on a buy at $73, no? and should the market price of STRC return closer to par at some point, an even better return. Regardless, not the risk I am look into today. I own Bitcoin and Gold for their base principles/benefits, and leave these riskier products for those with more appetite than me.
CNBC, et al, live on the sell side. When they go to commercial the break usually includes one or more investment pitches. Losses are a downer. It's not that complicated.
I dunno, Chris. This just feels like hopping on the engagement bandwagon to me, which is disappointing. Peter Schiff has been leveraging Bitcoin to stay relevant for quite a while now - he rarely talks about anything else (at least in the media). I mean, the most recent discussion I heard between the 2 of you, the guy was on his yacht and he afforded you 20 minutes. The one before that, he had just stepped out of his tanning bed... just data points I consider when I hear him speak. To me, he represents the elite. He is clinging to the old way. Not to mention he isn't even a great fund manager...
All of that said, I'm deeply intrigued by Strategy and have been for the past 4-5 years. Never held the stock. People who didn't think STRC would be a roller coaster for a while are just foolish. Obviously, the idea is/was to appeal to large capital investors, but those players require track records before making significant decisions. Hence, a heavy retail book at the outset of the product. Those investors are reacting to the Bitcoin price action (all derivatives are getting smoked), nothing more. This new "Strategy is dead" narrative is a very clear attempt to pile on and push all things Bitcoin further down. After all, Bitcoin doesn't have a CEO or other face to attack. You're now a part of that, apparently. But hey, we all gotta get paid amiright?
Crossing into July, STRC has paid its dividend without issue or interruption and will begin paying it bi-monthly. My 2c is this will begin the slow climb back to near-par values. Once Bitcoin rips again (and it will), Strategy will truly achieve escape velocity from TradFi pundits, the shorts, and the folks who deny Bitcoin as pristine collateral. The question at play is, can they survive this Bitcoin bear while also continuing to meet their obligations uninterrupted? I've got my popcorn!
Journalism and the MSM parted ways a while ago. Substack is where people go who want to see actual journalism.
CNBC is utterly worthless as a vehicle for actionable information. It's nothing but a big casino hype machine. Their job is to sell stonks.
This is a great article and I'm glad someone is (finally) saying it. Love or hate Bitcoin, it is completely dishonest to ignore the current situation.
Tru dis
Excellent essay, provides much food for thought. Much depends on the time frames used to analyze performance. Looking back one year from today, the Gold Bug Index (HUI) is down 34% from its high on 3/2/26. MSTR is down 38% from 3/2/26. Not so far apart. Schiff chooses timeframes that match his thesis about bitcoin, ignoring time frames where bitcoin or MSTR far exceeded the HUI, which I use as representative for gold performance.
Fantastic post. Thank you Chris.
this year has been such a crazy market
Hey great insight as usual, will your conversation with Schiff be streamed live somewhere?
I get pimped constantly by ads for income from gold (FD:I’m out & out long ago on all precious & crypto). They’re both missing the point: neither are currency; neither have income; neither produce squat.
But blockchain is fast becoming the stable coin rails backed by US Treasuries. Imagine a world where a merchant takes a credit card and it settles immediately instead of 1 week.
Or a tanker’s cargo is settled as quickly as the manifest shows it leaves the dock empty & delivered instead of a week through SWIFT.
That’s where we are and neither of those promote gold or BTC.
My main interest in stablecoins is in how they will prop up the Treasury market.
Yes, I think this is where Ripple may have an advantage with the XRP Ledger, ie the XRP Blockchain. The XRP ledger can use stablecoin directly on the the ledger while also doing coversion. Soo, the Payer=> send stableUSD to payee in stable EUR. No XRP is needed other than to pay the network fee. I think this undercut any long term bull for XRP crypto. But these transactions can settle in like 10 seconds vs days for swift.
The market appears to dismiss both as winners.
Great article. As one analyst on Bloomberg recently said, "the narrative follows the price, not the other way around." CNBC in particular is guilty of hyping whatever is working. Bloomberg Intelligence is a better in my opinion, with less entertaining but more grounded and analytical guests.
To your excellent point, another way of saying that is -- news conforms to Mathematical Wave Structure (which determines price) and not the other way around. I find that fascinating --and profitable
Ha! During the Dot Com Bubble/Crash, Goldman Sach's Chief Investmant Strategist Abby Joseph Cohen was THE Media Sell-Side Queen of CNBC. Everyone kissed her ring -- Utterly shameless. I hung on every word.....until I didn't. Nothing has changed.
Re: MSTR - "buy low sell high" sounds easy, but is one of the HARDEST things to do because of how humans are wired. I am Stalking MSTR for a Tradable Relief Bounce with a Target High Price Fibbonacci range of $106.50 - $121.50 before a final generational bottom zone of $60.00 - $65.00. The entire process to a Final Bottom could play out in weeks. MSTR will rise before Bitcoins bottom because sentiment moves faster in highly leveraged equity structures than it does in Spot Assets.
MSTR is currently trading at an 18% discount to its net asset value (0.82x mNAV).
Three things I am looking for next week:
1) Huge climactic selling volume with price supported by heavy Institutional Buying.
2) Universal Pessimism (almost there)
3) Positive Divergance on both the Daily and Weekly MACD (setting up nicely)
When Bitcoin bottoms it is projected to then climb to $200K -$300K range in a Supercycle Wave IV advance.
I too am watching MSTR & Bitcoin for a cyclic low for a buy. I agree MSTR will likely hit lows first. We will see 👀
Good for you! I tend to get crickets when I form arguments that way. Do you follow EW?
Nah, EW wasn’t jiving for my simple mind. I follow CamelFinance cycle trading.
Don't sell yourself short.
One day, when it will be common for people to say “remember Bitcoin” at family gatherings, they will make a movie about the buffoonery that was the BTC “market.”
It will star a future detransitioned Ellen Page as Michael Saylor. A role which will win her an Academy Award and ultimately the fabled EGOT. In her speech, she will mention her time method acting as a young pubeless man and also thank Christian Bayle for his heartfelt portrayal of trans man, and famed Wall Street hedge fund manager, Michael Burry, in the “The Big Short.”
The villain of the movie will be Larry Fink, a testosterone gel toting megalomaniac, who spends the movie suppressing both the price of BTC and Michael Saylor’s manhood. Fink will be played by Liberace, resurrected as an AI actor. Fink will commune with a dark, ominous figure throughout the movie, who (spoilers) is Jeffrey Epstein in a hooded brown robe. He will be played by himself.
At the end, both will die by Irony, Michael Saylor’s bright pink Glock 17. We freeze and fade over an etching on Irony’s slide. Through flitters of gun smoke and glitter still looking for an escape, we see “Amat Victoria Curam”
Fin
I see the bar is always open at your house. If you need more tortured souls, you might consider resurrecting Colonel Kurtz from "Apocalypse Now" or James Dean from any Film.....You're an interesting read.
Speculations are supposed to be supported with expendable money. I'm either going to make my small amount large or claim the loss on taxes.
CNBC …Who watches this dreck anyway?
A paper loss, is just that. Not a concern until I need to sell the asset. Investor's still get their "11.5% dividend" on a par value, as is my understanding, regardless the product's market price. I am actually intrigued with a $73 STRC price, since that would mean I'd be getting closer to 15.8% yield on a buy at $73, no? and should the market price of STRC return closer to par at some point, an even better return. Regardless, not the risk I am look into today. I own Bitcoin and Gold for their base principles/benefits, and leave these riskier products for those with more appetite than me.
CNBC, et al, live on the sell side. When they go to commercial the break usually includes one or more investment pitches. Losses are a downer. It's not that complicated.
I dunno, Chris. This just feels like hopping on the engagement bandwagon to me, which is disappointing. Peter Schiff has been leveraging Bitcoin to stay relevant for quite a while now - he rarely talks about anything else (at least in the media). I mean, the most recent discussion I heard between the 2 of you, the guy was on his yacht and he afforded you 20 minutes. The one before that, he had just stepped out of his tanning bed... just data points I consider when I hear him speak. To me, he represents the elite. He is clinging to the old way. Not to mention he isn't even a great fund manager...
All of that said, I'm deeply intrigued by Strategy and have been for the past 4-5 years. Never held the stock. People who didn't think STRC would be a roller coaster for a while are just foolish. Obviously, the idea is/was to appeal to large capital investors, but those players require track records before making significant decisions. Hence, a heavy retail book at the outset of the product. Those investors are reacting to the Bitcoin price action (all derivatives are getting smoked), nothing more. This new "Strategy is dead" narrative is a very clear attempt to pile on and push all things Bitcoin further down. After all, Bitcoin doesn't have a CEO or other face to attack. You're now a part of that, apparently. But hey, we all gotta get paid amiright?
Crossing into July, STRC has paid its dividend without issue or interruption and will begin paying it bi-monthly. My 2c is this will begin the slow climb back to near-par values. Once Bitcoin rips again (and it will), Strategy will truly achieve escape velocity from TradFi pundits, the shorts, and the folks who deny Bitcoin as pristine collateral. The question at play is, can they survive this Bitcoin bear while also continuing to meet their obligations uninterrupted? I've got my popcorn!
Well there goes your invite to the cocktail parties, don’t you want to succeed in this business??