“we will be prepared for when the markets are “working” and “not working” with our dignity intact — “
We will have more than our dignity intact. We will be cashed up and ready to go bargain hunting at fire sale prices. And, at least as important, we won’t be so shell shocked by what has occurred, that we go and mostly hide in 1% MMs for the next decade. As I fully admit to being guilty of, post GFC. But you only have to lose a million, a house, and file BR one time to never let it happen again.
I have the largest % cash/gold/silver positions in 55 years. And I’m old enough to have fully learned that most often, doing nothing is a better strategy than anything else.
I will admit to salivating at the thought of buying Nvidia below $50.
Other than that (and lamenting that on a Green Day for miners, I had one down 11% which totally screwed the pooch) I am just letting the market come to me. It could be tomorrow. Or it could be 5 years.
But it will happen, if that I am 100% certain. And we will be ready. Dignity intact and cash in hand.
Siegel is right up there with Cramer as just another of many stains on CNBC financial reporting. I can't turn the station off fast enough when they make appearances.
I think economists and traders are like surgeons. I have surmised, through observation, that financial people are like surgeons. They are all pretty qualified, but only a few surgeons are truly talented.
I'd be impressed if some talking heads from the Fed or business TV channels started talking about how the USA needs better education, better training for young people, better attitudes to business, a better environment for commerce, study, invention, research and MAKE THINGS THE WORLD WANTS TO BUY!
Jerome Powell sat still on Monday and did nothing. I'm not so sure about that, even though there is no way to prove it. The Fed has trading desks in both NYC and Chicago, and to stop the bleeding on Tuesday, I'm guessing call options were being bought in rather large amounts across the board. The Fed can affect the stock market in more ways than just cutting rates.
I laughed Monday and took the opportunity to buy a few short-dated calls at a discount.
I don’t watch or listen to the chatterati.
This everything-plus-AI bubble will likely burst before the year is out. But there are incremental profits to be made trading options and picking up dividends in an IRA account, building a recession-resistant portfolio in stodgy dividend names to ride through the next recession.
The "Everything Bubble" can never be allowed to deflate as the unpayable nature of the vast majority of debt in the system would be exposed and the economy would begin to collapse. The only (temporary) "remedy" would be QE on steroids - leading to massive inflation and - the beginning of the economy's collapse. This situation is Ludwig von Moses' "Crack-Ip Boom" - and is the situation in which we currently find ourselves.
Hay, somebody gave the fed something to do, so they do it. Do we even remember what that originally was? If we were to discover what it was, do you think they ( the fed ) have accomplished it? Or do they suffer from mission creep like every other government initiative?
They are not addicted to total euphoria, this is all part of their plan. Their objective is to create as much ghost money (additional prole debt ) as they can from which they profit and change into hard assets; stocks, real estate, gold etc. They know they are destroying the country and they will play this game until the goose is dead. We on the other hand chose to passively complain and vote for change. This, too, is part of their plan. So don't forget to vote.
-Deficit went up every year of his presidency (objectively true)
-Policies like tariffs and deporting low-wage workers will drive up inflation (generally true?)
I think it'd be really helpful if someone smarter than I am could write an article defending how to square being an Austrian economist with supporting Trump.
My SPY puts are destroyed yet again. I often times wonder how these young traders / idiots will react when we have a 1987, 1998, 2001, 2007-8 type crash of a big PERCENTAGE drop. Clearly that's just not going to be allowed to happen
The only way MMT can work is if the independent central bank sets tax rates as well as interest rates. Under MMT, when Congress appropriates funds, those funds are created ex-nihlo, and are spent into existence, but the central bank can substitute debt for seigniorage and borrow the funds as part of its economic management powers. A complication is that funds issued by Congress are only good for 2 years, and will expire at the end of that time period - which requires a CBDC if that expiration is to be enforced in the private economy. Under MMT, taxes are the (only) return path, and the central bank must set the tax rate at the level necessary to prevent ruinous inflation. Setting tax rates and rules by elected officials can not be allowed. That means that the Central Bank must be a constitutional agency, and be independent of elected officials for perpetuity (or be under World Government Control, or at least be a constitutional agency that has terms that are far longer than the terms of office of elected officials). The current system is fractional reserve banking, where most dollars are created by private bank lending. A true MMT system will abolish that feature, and must require 100% reserve lending for private banks. A CBDC is necessary to enforce 100% reserve banking, since each currency unit must be individually and digitally tracked for foolproof enforcement. The Central Bank must lend newly created dollars to private banks at a below-market rate to make 100% reserve banking possible. MMT is operationally very different from our current system. Current proponents of MMT (like AOC) are only half-ass, and most may not know what the hell they are talking about.
“we will be prepared for when the markets are “working” and “not working” with our dignity intact — “
We will have more than our dignity intact. We will be cashed up and ready to go bargain hunting at fire sale prices. And, at least as important, we won’t be so shell shocked by what has occurred, that we go and mostly hide in 1% MMs for the next decade. As I fully admit to being guilty of, post GFC. But you only have to lose a million, a house, and file BR one time to never let it happen again.
I have the largest % cash/gold/silver positions in 55 years. And I’m old enough to have fully learned that most often, doing nothing is a better strategy than anything else.
I will admit to salivating at the thought of buying Nvidia below $50.
Other than that (and lamenting that on a Green Day for miners, I had one down 11% which totally screwed the pooch) I am just letting the market come to me. It could be tomorrow. Or it could be 5 years.
But it will happen, if that I am 100% certain. And we will be ready. Dignity intact and cash in hand.
Siegel is right up there with Cramer as just another of many stains on CNBC financial reporting. I can't turn the station off fast enough when they make appearances.
I find their alarming, screeching voices a complete distraction. Drama queens chasing ratings.
I think economists and traders are like surgeons. I have surmised, through observation, that financial people are like surgeons. They are all pretty qualified, but only a few surgeons are truly talented.
Guess that’s true in any business.
I'd be impressed if some talking heads from the Fed or business TV channels started talking about how the USA needs better education, better training for young people, better attitudes to business, a better environment for commerce, study, invention, research and MAKE THINGS THE WORLD WANTS TO BUY!
Great piece! I couldn’t agree more. I really liked seeing those videos. Much respect to Guy Adami.
Jerome Powell sat still on Monday and did nothing. I'm not so sure about that, even though there is no way to prove it. The Fed has trading desks in both NYC and Chicago, and to stop the bleeding on Tuesday, I'm guessing call options were being bought in rather large amounts across the board. The Fed can affect the stock market in more ways than just cutting rates.
I laughed Monday and took the opportunity to buy a few short-dated calls at a discount.
I don’t watch or listen to the chatterati.
This everything-plus-AI bubble will likely burst before the year is out. But there are incremental profits to be made trading options and picking up dividends in an IRA account, building a recession-resistant portfolio in stodgy dividend names to ride through the next recession.
refreshing - thx
Nice! I love it when "experts" let their expertise be shown in all its glory.
The "Everything Bubble" can never be allowed to deflate as the unpayable nature of the vast majority of debt in the system would be exposed and the economy would begin to collapse. The only (temporary) "remedy" would be QE on steroids - leading to massive inflation and - the beginning of the economy's collapse. This situation is Ludwig von Moses' "Crack-Ip Boom" - and is the situation in which we currently find ourselves.
Hay, somebody gave the fed something to do, so they do it. Do we even remember what that originally was? If we were to discover what it was, do you think they ( the fed ) have accomplished it? Or do they suffer from mission creep like every other government initiative?
Siegel is worried about his Medicare and Social Security payments.
I am surprised you are not mentioning anything about what is going on in the middle east as a stressor to the markets?
They are not addicted to total euphoria, this is all part of their plan. Their objective is to create as much ghost money (additional prole debt ) as they can from which they profit and change into hard assets; stocks, real estate, gold etc. They know they are destroying the country and they will play this game until the goose is dead. We on the other hand chose to passively complain and vote for change. This, too, is part of their plan. So don't forget to vote.
One pushback I get from Trump-haters is that he is what you're criticizing in this article.
-Wants to end the independence of the Fed (https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trumps-plans-stir-fears-for-fed-independence-inflation-689bc113) in order to keep the market going up.
-Deficit went up every year of his presidency (objectively true)
-Policies like tariffs and deporting low-wage workers will drive up inflation (generally true?)
I think it'd be really helpful if someone smarter than I am could write an article defending how to square being an Austrian economist with supporting Trump.
My SPY puts are destroyed yet again. I often times wonder how these young traders / idiots will react when we have a 1987, 1998, 2001, 2007-8 type crash of a big PERCENTAGE drop. Clearly that's just not going to be allowed to happen
The only way MMT can work is if the independent central bank sets tax rates as well as interest rates. Under MMT, when Congress appropriates funds, those funds are created ex-nihlo, and are spent into existence, but the central bank can substitute debt for seigniorage and borrow the funds as part of its economic management powers. A complication is that funds issued by Congress are only good for 2 years, and will expire at the end of that time period - which requires a CBDC if that expiration is to be enforced in the private economy. Under MMT, taxes are the (only) return path, and the central bank must set the tax rate at the level necessary to prevent ruinous inflation. Setting tax rates and rules by elected officials can not be allowed. That means that the Central Bank must be a constitutional agency, and be independent of elected officials for perpetuity (or be under World Government Control, or at least be a constitutional agency that has terms that are far longer than the terms of office of elected officials). The current system is fractional reserve banking, where most dollars are created by private bank lending. A true MMT system will abolish that feature, and must require 100% reserve lending for private banks. A CBDC is necessary to enforce 100% reserve banking, since each currency unit must be individually and digitally tracked for foolproof enforcement. The Central Bank must lend newly created dollars to private banks at a below-market rate to make 100% reserve banking possible. MMT is operationally very different from our current system. Current proponents of MMT (like AOC) are only half-ass, and most may not know what the hell they are talking about.