I know this piece will come across as annoying to some, especially because I have only been bullish on bitcoin with some gusto for the last couple of months (though I first pointed it out to my readers in December 2022), but as a newfound member of the church of bitcoin community, I’d be remiss if I didn’t try out my voice a bit.
none or your pieces.....writings......are ever annoying......especially this Bitcoin one........and now that i have entered the Realm of Bitcoin with an ETF.......i am now a Bitcoin Watcher......and i am interested in every Truth Opinion
Many quotes come to my mind regarding bitcoin. When everyone and your shoeshine boy are buying it's time to get out, irrational exuberance, if you can't beat em, join em, etc. IMHO bitcoin is great for daytrading, not going to HODL. Buying it for the sake of defying the banking fiat currency system is like only investing in "green" companies. Not good for your bottom line? We will see.
Jesus, 2024 starts with AI chips, NVIDIA , melt up of SP 500 masquerading as the QQQ and now this? WTF is next? WTI to 200? GLD to 5000? My head can’t take it.
Good post. I agree. In the past month I have onboarded a half-dozen people to River with a simple weekly DCA. Slow and steady wins the race. Loud and obnoxious turns people off.
The continually rising price is both hypnotic and seductive - but does nothing for spreading an understanding of why Bitcoin is so valuable a technology. For me personally, looking at the historical economic value of monopolistic networks made seeing the value easier.
I have questions regarding bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies actually):
1) As bitcoin, et al. are all valued in dollars, and very few companies use crypto as a basis of payment, how does crypto hold value if and when the SHTF?
2) What makes any crypto holders confident government will not simply “regulate” (already going that way with crypto’s being listed on exchanges) or shutdown cryptocurrencies if it threatens their fiscal sovereignty?
Most relevant part of the post today: "but as a newfound member of the church of bitcoin community". You would think in a long post like this you could find one reason to own bitcoin other than "greater fool theory", but I guess all those other reasons are secrets only known by the true believers.
I've been studying history - and for a lot longer than 5 years. "Shit" has been piling up in front of the "fan" since 1913. Currently unknown "when" it's going to be turned on - but that it WILL BE turned on is what's a certainty.
I have a service I pay for by a man that is one hard working sob when it comes to due diligence and ferreting out the truth about what is going on.
Due to the renewed hype in shitcoin........all because it is worth more dollars, so indirectly it is really just more dollar hype.............he has done some in depth research into the miners. His forte is looking at things from a cost perspective and more specifically cost of energy.
He took the 4 biggest miners and demonstrated how they have been losing money big time for the past three years........due to energy cost and replacement miners........both of which have gone up significantly. They are selling what they mine as fast as they can just to stay afloat.
Now that BTC has jumped into the $60k range again, they are in the black, but barely. Energy cost and miner equipment cost are not going to get any cheaper from here. And now the halving will make it twice as hard to mine.
BTW, how many times can you "halve" something in the digital world? Food for thought.
There are only ever supposed to be 21 million BTC. 19.6 have been mined. The Goog says there are 219 million BTC owners world wide. Now digest that.
We know Microstrategy has 193,000 of them, the IRS confiscated 51,000 of them, ETFs have theoretically trillions chasing them, and there are other big players called "whales" that obviously own multiple units. So, of the 219 million "owners," how many have an actual whole BTC? Probably less than 5%.
If you owned a whole BTC, you'd be able to buy a pickup truck.......maybe. It takes 100 million satoshi to make a BTC. Good luck with that. I would suspect that 90% of the current BTC is in the hands of those that are already wealthy, and will end up staying there. Not going to be the "get rich" ticket for the masses, though many will ride the coattails by playing in the crypto world.
BTC will have to be worth $100,000,000 each for a satoshi to be worth $1. When that happens, there will be a lot more things to be concerned about. Just like, when gold is $10,000 an oz, you can bet your ass your are going to have a lot more concerns than what return you are getting on your "investment."
I know this piece will come across as annoying to some, especially because I have only been bullish on bitcoin with some gusto for the last couple of months (though I first pointed it out to my readers in December 2022), but as a newfound member of the church of bitcoin community, I’d be remiss if I didn’t try out my voice a bit.
none or your pieces.....writings......are ever annoying......especially this Bitcoin one........and now that i have entered the Realm of Bitcoin with an ETF.......i am now a Bitcoin Watcher......and i am interested in every Truth Opinion
All that’s left is The Pump.
So I should stay humble, and stack Sats. Got it!
Many quotes come to my mind regarding bitcoin. When everyone and your shoeshine boy are buying it's time to get out, irrational exuberance, if you can't beat em, join em, etc. IMHO bitcoin is great for daytrading, not going to HODL. Buying it for the sake of defying the banking fiat currency system is like only investing in "green" companies. Not good for your bottom line? We will see.
stack sats, not sloots.
Great piece.
Lol now that you’ve capitulated… the bubble is about to pop!
Jesus, 2024 starts with AI chips, NVIDIA , melt up of SP 500 masquerading as the QQQ and now this? WTF is next? WTI to 200? GLD to 5000? My head can’t take it.
Good post. I agree. In the past month I have onboarded a half-dozen people to River with a simple weekly DCA. Slow and steady wins the race. Loud and obnoxious turns people off.
The continually rising price is both hypnotic and seductive - but does nothing for spreading an understanding of why Bitcoin is so valuable a technology. For me personally, looking at the historical economic value of monopolistic networks made seeing the value easier.
https://bagholder.substack.com/p/monopoly
So I have a question which is a very newbie question in my eyes and I know the answer is probably more complex then I realise.
When the Bitcoin halving takes place next month does that mean the valuation will go down or do we not know?
I have questions regarding bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies actually):
1) As bitcoin, et al. are all valued in dollars, and very few companies use crypto as a basis of payment, how does crypto hold value if and when the SHTF?
2) What makes any crypto holders confident government will not simply “regulate” (already going that way with crypto’s being listed on exchanges) or shutdown cryptocurrencies if it threatens their fiscal sovereignty?
Most relevant part of the post today: "but as a newfound member of the church of bitcoin community". You would think in a long post like this you could find one reason to own bitcoin other than "greater fool theory", but I guess all those other reasons are secrets only known by the true believers.
I've been studying history - and for a lot longer than 5 years. "Shit" has been piling up in front of the "fan" since 1913. Currently unknown "when" it's going to be turned on - but that it WILL BE turned on is what's a certainty.
Even Noriel Roubini is now stacking "Shitacoina"
Another round of S&F...
I have a service I pay for by a man that is one hard working sob when it comes to due diligence and ferreting out the truth about what is going on.
Due to the renewed hype in shitcoin........all because it is worth more dollars, so indirectly it is really just more dollar hype.............he has done some in depth research into the miners. His forte is looking at things from a cost perspective and more specifically cost of energy.
He took the 4 biggest miners and demonstrated how they have been losing money big time for the past three years........due to energy cost and replacement miners........both of which have gone up significantly. They are selling what they mine as fast as they can just to stay afloat.
Now that BTC has jumped into the $60k range again, they are in the black, but barely. Energy cost and miner equipment cost are not going to get any cheaper from here. And now the halving will make it twice as hard to mine.
BTW, how many times can you "halve" something in the digital world? Food for thought.
There are only ever supposed to be 21 million BTC. 19.6 have been mined. The Goog says there are 219 million BTC owners world wide. Now digest that.
We know Microstrategy has 193,000 of them, the IRS confiscated 51,000 of them, ETFs have theoretically trillions chasing them, and there are other big players called "whales" that obviously own multiple units. So, of the 219 million "owners," how many have an actual whole BTC? Probably less than 5%.
If you owned a whole BTC, you'd be able to buy a pickup truck.......maybe. It takes 100 million satoshi to make a BTC. Good luck with that. I would suspect that 90% of the current BTC is in the hands of those that are already wealthy, and will end up staying there. Not going to be the "get rich" ticket for the masses, though many will ride the coattails by playing in the crypto world.
BTC will have to be worth $100,000,000 each for a satoshi to be worth $1. When that happens, there will be a lot more things to be concerned about. Just like, when gold is $10,000 an oz, you can bet your ass your are going to have a lot more concerns than what return you are getting on your "investment."
HODL on!