Thanks for getting a note out tonight Chris! Going to be a very interesting rest of 2024. And the first few months of 2025 likely to be fireworks coming from every direction.
The markets never cease to impress me. I thought that all information was priced in when the market was melting up and the VIX melting down. Congratulations to those who bought puts.
Word. I feel like the level of complacency and entitlement to large yearly stock gains is off the charts and nobody seems to want to take any chips off the table.
Markets always over react. The climb to the top was mystifying, and the reset will be greater than imagined. I believe that very late in yesterday’s trading session we saw margin calls being executed. The economy is extremely overextended and the resilience of the Great American consumer is stretched. The new administration isn’t concerned about this market until the second half of 2025. Look for pain early in Trump’s second term. First term market was weak until after election. Since Trump has a 6 month pass on the economy, I expect him to use it. Merry Christmas and Profitable Trading to You.
"[U]nprecedented monetary policy, blowing an unprecedented bubble, will yield unprecedented results."
What do you think Chris, is it time to put on one of those fabled 10 to 1 put backspreads? I'm thinking sell a 25 delta put and buy ten of the one delta puts for the January expiry; this setup would pay off like a lottery ticket if there is an actual crash.
Boilerplate warning to all that it's NOT investment advise, just kicking around an idea.
Thanks for getting a note out tonight Chris! Going to be a very interesting rest of 2024. And the first few months of 2025 likely to be fireworks coming from every direction.
It’s the biggest disconnect with reality versus behavioral finance in history.
The markets never cease to impress me. I thought that all information was priced in when the market was melting up and the VIX melting down. Congratulations to those who bought puts.
Word. I feel like the level of complacency and entitlement to large yearly stock gains is off the charts and nobody seems to want to take any chips off the table.
You are right, all the signs are ominous.
Great Christmas Song, and an even better column! Well done 👍 💯 👏
UNH being the one dot of green…how quickly they panic and run back towards the warm embrace of companies that actually make money. “Luigi who?”
Markets always over react. The climb to the top was mystifying, and the reset will be greater than imagined. I believe that very late in yesterday’s trading session we saw margin calls being executed. The economy is extremely overextended and the resilience of the Great American consumer is stretched. The new administration isn’t concerned about this market until the second half of 2025. Look for pain early in Trump’s second term. First term market was weak until after election. Since Trump has a 6 month pass on the economy, I expect him to use it. Merry Christmas and Profitable Trading to You.
"[U]nprecedented monetary policy, blowing an unprecedented bubble, will yield unprecedented results."
What do you think Chris, is it time to put on one of those fabled 10 to 1 put backspreads? I'm thinking sell a 25 delta put and buy ten of the one delta puts for the January expiry; this setup would pay off like a lottery ticket if there is an actual crash.
Boilerplate warning to all that it's NOT investment advise, just kicking around an idea.