"Market behavior started shifting significantly once rates passed 5.5% in June."
So for starters Philly is a crime ridden shit hole with an infamous DA who cant seem to wrap his head around incarceration so from that stand point i am not sure that Philly is necessarily an accurate litmus test for the rest of america..... but i can tell you that Lenore sold 300 spec homes to a buddy of mine at a 30% haircut in a specific region ...... they will be come rental properties for the next few years until they will be sold..... so larger companies are starting to bundle their spec homes for REITs specifically for rental purposes.... not to mention hedge funds are plowing billions into the rental market....
We sold our NoVA home in Oct '21, nick of time I guess.
The pandemic triggered work from home anywhere meme plus stupid low interest rates triggered a rapid rise in home values. I have a 2.25% mortgage on my first home. Rates that low made no sense, and now were are going through a violent normalization. Mortgage spreads vs. the 10-year Treasury are much wider than historical levels. When interest rates find a new stabilization level, rates mortgage rates will also stabilize at what I suspect will be a lower rate.
I will close on another home in the next month. Not excited about the rate, but understand that refinancing is easy if rates fall. If they don't I am fortunate that I can pay off at least half the loan in the next five years, so would do that and refinance the stub for lower payments.
Both homes will be residences, and not rental properties.
Another good sharepost from Kira - thanks. I was speaking to a guy Monday night; he was finishing a renovation in Wilmington NC back in May and was sweating if he could get it done before he went into the red. Supply shortages were a big factor, and he was sweating the coming rate increase and the downturn in real estate. The property sold in June and he said after that sale it was the first time he could actually sleep through the night in 2 months. We laughed about trying to buy properties right now. That southern NC coast lit up in blood on the CorLogic Nov 2022 Analysis really got my attention.
Wonder how the implosion of SVB will affect the industry now. . .
A few issues: prices still up; no one will sell unless they must; smart buyers getting 5 year fixed then adjustable rate loans around 5.5%
Thanks for sharing your insights. Much appreciated.
completely missing from most analysis is the death of robot buying.
my wife and I would see a listing in morning, call agent only to be informed it's under contract.
the death of ai flipping algos has hidden true demand inmho.
now we are seeing real demand that yes , is also being crushed by interest rates. I
how does someone with 2 years experience being a real estate agent come on the internet and write articles and answer questions about real estate?
what kind of fool actually thinks they are qualified to do that?
how many properties has this gal ever owned, rehabbed or bought/sold for HERSELF?
she selling information and taking ZERO RISK
probably would be a better used car salesman
If the rate environment is such that people will only list their homes if they absolutely must sell, then why would we expect to see the typical seasonal increase in inventory?
Wait until the defaults on mortgages commence with a vengeance. . .