Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine early this year, I have been speculating that Russia and China are purposefully strengthening their alliance with one another to pose a challenge not only to the West militarily, but also economically and via cyber-warfare. It has been “so far, so good” on ducking Western sanctions, as I just wrote during the summer that Russia was producing more oil than they were prior to the invasion of Ukraine.
Over the last 48 hours, more news has broken confirming that the two countries getting even closer to one another. Yesterday, President Putin said he would be meeting Xi Jinping in person next week to solidify Russia’s relationship with China, which, per The NY Times, he called a “stable and reliable” partner. The NYT notes that the meeting is also notable because it is in person, and because Jinping “has not left China since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020”.
Russia’s ambassador to China, Andrei Denisov confirmed that it was the first “full fledged” summit between the two countries since the pandemic started. So, why now?
Following that announcement, we got the news that Russia’s navy was holding joint patrols with China’s navy in the Pacific Ocean - a signal to the world that the two countries are military allies. As Reuterswrote, the exercises are “deepening military and diplomatic ties between Moscow and Beijing when their relations with the West have soured”.
"The tasks of the patrols involve the strengthening of naval cooperation between Russia and China, upholding peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, coastal monitoring and safeguarding Russian and Chinese nautical economic sites," a statement said.
At the same time, there have been scattered reports about both Xi and Putin meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi - another key ally for the BRIC nations.
I have been alarmed about Russia and China working together since the beginning of the year. Specifically, I have been watching the economic developments - both countries de-dollarizing and trading more with one another to skirt Western sanctions - but obviously it is becoming difficult to ignore these other diplomatic developments…especially at a time when Taiwan remains up in the air.
For those that have missed my posts over the last few months, I have written that:
I think the BRIC nations, led by China and Russia, are making a concerted effort to separate themselves economically from the West by readying their own digital reserve currency (that I believe will eventually be backed by gold)
China is planning on invading Taiwan similar to the way Russia has just went into Ukraine and such action will push us further down a path to a “cold” World War III, at the least, which I have predicted could play out economically, through strategically seizing up the supply chain and via cyber-means moreso than a traditional war
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about two more developments in tensions between Russia/China and the West, including Taiwan shooting down a Chinese drone for the first time ever and Russia planning to buy as much as $70 billion in what they call “friendly currency” (Chinese Yuan) in order to “slow the rouble's surge”.
The media refuses to give Russia any semblance of strength or wit (it is counter-narrative). I don't think China is in a hurry to take Taiwan - why now? What's the rush? Biden Admin needs to de-escalate Ukr/Ru war......but they won't. Biden Admin seems perfectly comfortable pushing the envelope as far as possible - right up to the brink of nuclear annihilation (the WH is run by childless millennials). The Dollar is being challenged and its already a slow transition. Its a knife that cuts both ways - USD dominance brings stability (globally) but at the mercy of US hegemony which people are getting sick of. The empire is dying - albeit - a slow death.
I have friends and relatives in former Yugoslavia countries and I'm sure countries like Bulgaria and Romania are comparable: it seems the poorer, less developed countries are not so hard hit. They never really moved away from burning wood so are fairly well prepared for the coming winter. Many city dwellers have a 2nd property in the countryside or family in the countryside where wood heating is still quite common.
That just reinforces the idea of 'emergency preparedness' to me.
The problem, in my view, is that for some reason the US wants to rule the world, at whatever cost (war for example). They should think that the population of the USA is less than 5% of the world population and it's normal that China will become the most economically powerful nation. It's not good or bad, it's just different.
The alliance with Russia is just pragmatic. Russia is a powerhouse in terms of energy, minerals and food. What country could be better for China? They are even physically close.
The US will lose, slowly, their upper hand in the world and they will crush Europe in between, because the European leaders are completely overloaded with dollar debt. Too bad I'm in Europe, it feels scary.
Russia has world class mathematicians. Advanced mathematics is basis for our modern world. Unfortunately, a dictator system does not let them flourish.
I respect your opinion ,but I disagree. I don't see him as a dictator.
Yes they have a different way to behave and see the world, but it doesn't mean they are correct or not.
They have world class "everything" in science. Space program (they'll have their own space station), military systems, manufacturing for high precision, etc.
That's too bad "we" can't get along. too many egos.
One of the great strategic blunders of the 20th century was not allowing Russia to join NATO when they asked to join. Imagine the world with Russia, Europe, and the US cooperating economically and militarily. A real tragedy that is rarely mentioned.
The time and money China has invested in Bribery and Blackmail are paying off. Blind Eyes Abound. We have allowed ourselves to become addicted to the use of Chinese Labor, raw materials, and a rotating door, where Chinese profits are used to stabilize Western Debt. The West is cornered by it's own actions and decisions. We are stuck with "Hear No Evil, See No Evil, Speak No Evil". This goes far beyond the preferential treatment that has been illegally handed out to the Biden Syndicate.
And What Comes Next? I think Chinese planning and theories are very flexible and positioned to react to changing situations. You would have to be Privy to Xi's Gamebook, to see where the "Red Lines" are truly drawn. / (Do not underestimate the Chinese belief that in the end, only the Chinese people and model have any meaning. They are not "White Supremacists".)
1) Is there actually a plan? Or is the West being led by a senile old man and a gaggle of power-hungry clueless millennials? To make any arguments, we must presume there is actually a plan, otherwise it's chaos all the way down.
2) The current war in Ukraine was intentionally instigated by Washington. This is a direct product of premise number 1, and seems to me blindly obvious, although no justification of Moscow's actions (but you cannot back a wounded bear into a corner and then get offended when it launches itself at your dogs. The answer is to not be one of Washington's dogs, easier said than done).
Once these two premises are agreed upon, then a coherent explanation to events may be sought.
If the answer to the above premises is affirmative, then we must presume that this plan extends to the destruction of Germany's (and, therefore, Europe's) industry, since in the run-up to the final bear-baiting in Ukraine, the Nord 2 was finally shut down on Washington's determined insistence, despite Europe not having anywhere nearly enough LNG capacity to substitute cheap Russian natural gas for American LNG, nor will have (for industrial purposes) for some years to come, after which any industrial capacity would have to be rebuilt, not just restarted.
I will go so far as to posit that this - the second American destruction of German industry - might well be the whole point of this exercise. What on earth was to be gained by bleeding a demographically dying yet nuclear-armed Russia to a premature death? The Russian Federation was already simply a source of raw non-value-added material to the global industry, and due to massive corruption of the oligarchy, at not 'risk' of re-industrializing in a serious way. If this, the second American destruction of German industry, was the whole point, then the added loss of Chinese industrial inputs and market would seem to be the logical next step. In this light, the provocation of Beijing regarding their open wound of Taiwan makes perfect sense. (Again, not defending Xi nor Putin, just trying to see things from their perspective, please don't get hysterical.) This, the end of German (ergo European and UK) industry, in the light of the ongoing American deglobalization, would seem to point towards a reestablishment of imperial commercial boundaries, as before WWII.
Parallel to this, but not necessarily dependent upon it, might be the forcing together of Russia and Beijing into an alliance, to be the dearly-missed bogeyman that the American Military-Industrial complex so badly needs to continue justifying its existence, and that the regime de-jour needs to continue justifying foreign adventures (although the overlap would seem to be great, and growing). This latter is a bit too close to conspiracy theory for my comfort, but not necessarily wrong.
"Without cheap gas, Europe's industry cannot survive. Factories all over Europe are currently shutting down production. And many will never start up again."
Tick tock boom. There goes nord stream 2. Well anticipated. Given the twitter polls I’ve seen today vast majority (for what that’s worth) suspect USA responsible.
This Ukraine fixation didn't start with the Biden Admin. Our Deep State (the Intelligence Community part) has been heavily invested in Ukraine for decades, and Biden has been their tool. You are probably right that the current WH clowns have no plan, so the only people with a plan are the Deep State, who have long wanted to use Ukraine as a tool to destroy and dismember Russia. They impeached Trump over Ukraine, remember. Under the Biden Admin, the Deep State runs wild and controls the government.
The right move for the Biden admin militarily and economically? You really think the Biden admin decides anything? You think any US admin since Kennedy decided anything? The right move by America and Europe would be to question the totally disproportionate presence of jews in their administrative establishments (as opposed to constantly questioning the proportions of straight white Caucasian males) and to question why foreign policy for nigh on a century has largely benefitted such a small majority of the global population
Until this issue gets discussed, nothing makes any sense... the issue is never discussed and will likely not be here... why? If they were germans or japanese or welsh that were so disproportionately represented in US or European halls of power, the issue would be front cover and constantly discussed
Oh really now. The Mossad will be at your door in the morning. The Sunni-Shia divide makes Arab states closer to Israel and the West. The 5th fleet is the traffic cop for the entire Middle East oil producers. You think the Petro Dollar arrangement only benefits Jews?
(1) The last name of China’s president is Xi, not Jinping.
(2) Taiwan is recognized by almost the entire world (even Taiwan itself) as part of China.
(3) The US has goaded Russia into attacking Ukraine in the same way the US would attack Mexico if a foreign power overthrew the Mexican government, installed a puppet, and proceeded to load it with offensive weapons.
(4) Property rights used to be enshrined in law. The sanctions on Russia show that no country’s assets are free from confiscation by the west. (Venezuela and Afghanistan are the most recent, besides Russia.). Of course non-western governments will seek to protect their assets from being stolen by the US, EU, and UK.
History, which the USA barely even teaches anymore, is destined to repeat itself. NO empire lasts forever. The Saudis have openly ignored Biden, he is a fool - a puppet on a global stage. The BRIC nations are all realizing they can operate outside of the US as they need to look out for their own citizens. Germany & the European countries will indeed have a cold winter. Putin is playing chess while Biden's being fed oatmeal. China will invade Taiwan, because it can. Oil is being bought & sold in currency other than US dollars. The United States is weak, it's citizenry is extremely divided and the media is encouraging the division. The media has NO interest in talking about anything other than "woke" nonsense, further weakening and dividing the population. We, in my opinion, are witnessing the decline of the west.
-"Is the media not doing enough to play up the relationship between these two countries and the potential economic threat they pose?" The media is fixated on Russia vs. Europe and the mainstream is still using a 1999 lens to view the world order, where it is all part of a whole building overarching global connections. Therefore, they don't see the emergence of an applied focus on an alternative by Russia, China, et al.
-"Do you believe China is getting ready to try and launch a military effort against Taiwan?" Yes, but it is not something they actual want to employ in the short term. It's a device to keep pressure on Taiwan and to live rent free in the Taiwanese / US political mind. It's like a cowboy movie where they play poker in a saloon; everyone has a gun (or more), a friend (or more), but that's just to keep the everything balanced and clear the air of any sense of undue appropriation with the rules. No one wants a shoot out - they'd rather play, win, and sip whiskey without flipping the table and throwing smoke. China would prefer Taiwan to voluntarily (or mostly voluntarily) realize the rational reasons for unification, wherein the military operation is simply the handshake on the deal, rather than a brawl. The CCP is more than happy to be the Frenchman in the Castle (Monty Python), while the US is fragmenting into a empire built on virtue signaling at it's core. If the Chinese think another year or two results in a US Tiger that won't swing a claw in defense of Taiwan for practical or political reasons, which results in the isolation of Taiwan, they would much prefer that action. No one wants to see the TSMC foundries turn into smoking rubble, which I think is likely in a contested Chinese military seizure of the island.
-"What is the right move here for the Biden Administration - militarily and economically?" The administration needs to continue to show clear political support and military capability. Some economical risk needs to be on display in the form of geographic economic commitments to Taiwan itself. Further, the administration must keep a focus on the surrounding nations in South East Asia, all of which prefer a dominant US presence on the open seas versus a local Chinese hegemony.
-"Will there be a grand challenge to the U.S. dollar - if so, how crucial is Saudi support to the effort - and what will the outcome be?" Yes, but for practical reasons, it will be a second tier system, an alternative. It won't replace the USD globally, but be seen as another senior party and play well in forex. Think of a once dominant racer who has aged a bit. Still wins championships, but the total dominance of the past is gone, and there are some tracks where he comes in the top 4, vice the lead. Saudi support is more important for the gold-oil-Yuan system than for the US dollar. The outcome depends on the administrations ability to approach relations with the Saudis as a practical exercise or a virtue signaling exercise. There's a line where we can maintain criticism of the Saudi's with respect to appalling details of the Khashoggi case, but deal reasonably with the Saudi's as an energy and Middle Eastern leading nation. Can the Biden administration accomplish that? Magic 8 ball says 'doubtful'.
The question isn’t will they try. They already are. They conduct constant feelers to test Taiwanese capabilities and the rest of the world’s appetite to support Taiwan.
To me the question is if Taiwan fights, how does China’s military perform an amphibious invasion of an island? It is one of the most difficult large scale military operations to pull off. We’re seeing with Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine creating fits of problems for Russia with no air power and all operations of the invading army conducted over land.
Will waves of Chinese soldiers charge through a hail of well set up defenses and certain death to overwhelm Taiwanese defenses? The logistics of supplying an invading army by sea and distributing resources to them on the ground in Taiwan seems rife with potential for bungling by an army with no experience conducting such an operation
I think China will do a Naval blockade on Taiwan. The only kinetic action will be if someone tries to run the blockade. They will simply strangle the island until they surrender, for many years if necessary.
.....media? really? who pays attention to bs...to be avoided
....china? move? doubtful.
...right move for biden? euthanasia
the center of the universe is and will shift to eurasia this has been known by some for 100 years.....the west has seen its final glory.....queen elizabeth's death an ominous signal for the london crowd of controllers....the kazarian tribe wanted to resurrect their historical kazaria in the form of a secular israel right at the exact juncture of the New
Question #1: No. The media are simply corporate stenographers, and their corporate masters depend on cheap Chinese labor. Just as you will not hear anything negative on Pharma (who buy up 70% of their ad space) you will not hear anything true about China.
Question #2: Yes. And it will have to happen before the end of Biden's term. Biden is, to China, the devil they know (will not likely do anything direct) vice the devil they don't. The Chinese likely believe Biden is a one term President.
Question #3: The CCP governs by fear. The reach of their power is entirely a function of the reach of their knowledge concerning the activities of the population. And that depends entirely on data and technology now. Think of it this way: When law enforcement is allowed to use technology to surveil the population, old fashioned gumshoe policing skills atrophy. Their whole surveillance apparatus and social credit system is their Achilles heel. Take away their awareness of their populations' activities and you take away their ability to sow fear. Take that away and you take away their ability to govern.
Because they govern by fear and we govern by consent (at least to some remaining degree), if we end up at war, while the temporal costs will be grave beyond imagination, their form of government will not survive the conflict. Ours will. This is our inherent strategic advantage.
Question #4: Yes, but it is more likely to come from within than without. Or at least it should. How well is the dollar transmitting our labor to our living? We need to remember that every authority - including the authority to coin money and regulate its value - belongs to We the People. We delegated that to Congress for a variety of reasons, among which was to "...promote the general Welfare" (from the Preamble to the U.S. Constitution). We can always take that authority back.
Matt Gertken VP of Geopolitical Strategy of BCA Research spoke on Kitco News https://tinyurl.com/2p8pces8 Matt is a sharp thinker like you and his theory is Xi is POSTURING for the October congress and we won't know China's true intentions on Taiwan until early next year after the Congress. Peter Zeihan GeoPolitcs reminds us that 85% of what feeds China is imported as is their oil. Is Taiwan really worth upsetting that balance?
50% of Taiwan's Trade is with greater China, and, too many other factors are mutually beneficial. China attacking Taiwan is like USA attacking Canada when we already know who will win that war. Won't happen in any major way.
MSM? Only 0.2% of the USA pop watches CNN, I wonder why. Next question?
The right move for who? Who benefits?
Everyone will continue to devalue against the US dollar for their own benefit until that strategy no longer works. Then the USA accelerates into Elysium.
Russia is losing the war in Ukraine, badly. This failure shows China that Russia isn’t valuable as an ally. As a client state? Resource provider? Either, sure.
However, China is not going to risk moving before it’s ready against the US and Pacific allies to save Russia. China knows it has a problem securing sea lanes for resource imports, it knows it has not got that problem solved yet. Fortunately, most of the resources it needs, including tomorrow’s decent agricultural land, is north.
When Russia collapses, China will move to maintain stability in Siberia, doubling its land area and greatly improving its resource situation, without too many quarrelsome natives to contend with.
Within a few years, all of Russia’s east is China’s “northern resource area,” to borrow Japan’s pre-war term.
Do you really believe Russia is losing badly? It is clear they are not doing well, but Russia still has some big cards to play that it hasn't used yet. It is hard to know the true state of the war when the Media is mostly pushing propaganda.
It's not media spin to notice that the Russian right flank just staggered backwards when the Ukrainians launched an offensive, nor that the largest chunk remaining of their regular army is stuck on the wrong side of a major river with the bridges damaged or blown.
Putin wouldn't be mobilizing if they were winning a conventional war. The Russians are telling us it's going very badly for them and the guys in charge are worried.
They have big cards to play, that's true! Mobilization may let them hang in this war for years, and if Western support dwindles may hand them the advantage again.
Otoh, mobilized Russian armies routinely mutinied under the Tsars, is Putin really any better?
In the end, Ukraine has momentum now, even Russian TV is freaking out about that. Sometimes momentum reverses, true, but often when it's bad its telling you something's a zero.
The media are stuck in a 'Russia / China' are evil mode so there is little sense coming from then with regard to serious issues.
I do believe China is gearing-up for an attack on Taiwan which I may take place in the second half of next year.
The correct move for the Biden Admin is to stop attempting to continue with a unipolar world and try and arrange a ceasefire and a peaceful solution to the Ukraine war. Economically, co-operation with China / Russia and the rest of the world will be far more beneficial than trying to continue with the US as the sole economic superpower (even though this only so in the minds of the US elite).
The US effectively killed the US dollar when is sanctioned the Russian Central Bank. Few countries now wish to put themselves in the same position and I agree that China / Russia are readying their own currency - digital or otherwise. Saudi will try and join the BRICS. All sensible countries (inc India) are trying to flee from the US-centric world. The goose is cooked.
The day is rapidly coming when all worthless paper money instruments will be just that -- worthless. What made the dollar the world's reserve currency, namely our rule of law and the ferocity of the US business class, have been replaced with banana republic deep state morons and a a morally bankrupt, rent-seeking business class. The entire class of bubble/fake money financial investors who are akin to bald guys arguing over combs will realize (too late) that their skills are as worthless as the paper money they used to trade.
~800 days of Biden remaining. Aka the "shot clock". I tend to believe this was the exact reason for which weak old man Biden was "elected". To create a power vacuum. Putin took the bait and invaded, but failed to recognize the unifying effect his invasion would have on the west (oops). Remember the 'ghost of kyiv' story? So contrived. Purpose: unify the west and pump up Ukraine for a long fight. The only reason any of us cared about the invasion is because our brains were saturated by years worth of COVID spew. We were incredibly divided (politically) and in desperate need of anything else to focus on. So basically, in a single moment (invasion) the whole world snapped out of a mass formation psychosis. Powerful stuff there. Could COVID have been released with the purpose of marching us into this state? Who knows. Did lockdowns and hysteria make sense? Lol.
China has been the obvious ally for kgb boy, however, they can't deny their dependence on the rest of the developed world as a customer. Do they want to isolate themselves the way Putin has? I don't think so. I think they are a false ally, but also I believe they have piles of dirt on the big guy (Biden). Yes, China is in a pretty good position. So, that brings up Taiwan. There is no viable way to defend that little island and it would be a big mistake (imo) to try. China today is so much more powerful than 20 years ago. My hope is there has been a back room agreement by the US to 'give' Taiwan to China (a major power-shift moment). Perhaps with an agreement for supply of future cheap Chi-wan chips? Perhaps with an agreement to slow-play and later abandon Putin? Timing of takeover could be as soon as this winter when Europe is freezing (and markets possibly bleeding). But really, 800 days.
Yes, it's my conspiracy theory, but when for years so damn much didn't make sense, anything has a chance of being true.
cheering on the end of the world just so you can have a sense of smug satisfaction when it finally happens (although it’ll be a hard expression to read when ALL of our faces are melting off in the nuclear fallout) is a pretty lousy way to use your platform
The US imperialism is the continuation of the British empire, ever heard of the Eastern Roman Empire or Byzantine Empire? Similar story....Dalio's cycles is a valid key of interpretation, although did not connect the dots between US and UK and did not call it The Anglo-Saxon Empire, whose duration is more in line with the cyclical pattern of history. So many parallels could be drawn that is amazing, it's like a movie already watched...the most relevant thing in common is the ineptitude of the elites and delusional grandeur that marked both Byzantium and Washington at the end of the cycle. The China-Russia connection fits the Byzantine narrative. After Byzantium collapsed, the World (from a Mediterranean centric perspective) became multipolar, lots of small-medium regional powers filling the void. The main difference is that the Anglo-Saxon Empire is/was global, not Mediterranean, so it's a different game. English like Latin will last for centuries and will always be the world language, becoming Spanglish etc, can you see Mandarin or Russians becoming global languages and, most importantly, the World Wide Web languages?? Things are going to change, for sure, not necessarily in the wrong direction if we will ever understand that it's only through cooperation that we can survive and thrive either as single human beings and nations
Biden is more Obama-II every day. Henry K @ JPM PB this week: "Don’t make threats you won’t deliver on".
Trump was 100% right: Taiwan is a pencil eraser. The more noise we make, the better internal narrative they’ll have for changing Taiwan status quo—-just like Putin has full support for “liberating” Ukraine from Western threat after we wasted years of hegemony mindlessly expanding NATO as a military alliance instead of repurposing it for a post-Soviet world.
What to do now? Engage China instead of encircling. Repair China relationship, isolate Russia.
- The media, being an extension of the DNC and the deep state, is doing their best see-no-evil impression in order to run cover for the Biden administration.
- I believe that China has had an actionable plan to invade Taiwan for some time now. It's just a question of "when" more than "if" (IMO).
- The right move for the Biden administration is a tricky question because their interest is separate from "the good of the country" as a whole. On that count, I won't answer to not give them any ideas via the feds reading your substack.
- The grand challenge to the US dollar is already in progress. Saudi support can help it along but, at this point, it's more like they're coming along for the ride. The outcome is going to be a substantially diminished USA by several measures.
Interesting about gold & silver disappearing. That right along with the value of my gold positions. I mean, have you seen /GC today?! WTF?! Did somebody find a billion tons of gold recently?! Golden asteroid hit the earth that I don't know about? Somebody finally figure out how to make it from some other metal(s)? You'd think so looking at the damn futures price!!
* The media is controlled and corrupt and 100% exists to control the narrative with propoganda---no further comment needed
* No---I think China is always methodical and patient; 180 degrees for the idiots in the West. There is a 100% chance they will take over Taiwan but they won't do it until it is the right timing for them and the Eastern transition
* Stop making stupid decisions that are killing the US and the west. Economically, I think it is too late. The US has been a corrupt Imperialist Bully selfishly destroying other countries both militarily and through the SWIFT system for 50 years now and has destroyed the global economic system---See Creatures of Jekyl Island (this was not an accident)
* The US $ won't go away but it will become relatively worthless. China likely has 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes of gold and Russia has much. The US $ won't go away but it will be destroyed in its value. The Eastern Alliance with 75%??? of the world's population and massive commodity / rare earth position will dominate the future and the US will become equivalent to a third world country
* The US has been a GREAT nation of entrepreneurs with free speech and guns. The global elite can now allow this to exist and has been working methodically toward to destroying the US for the past 100 years.
The media will continue ignoring various domestic (power grid, water supply, homelessness, debt/deficit, etc.) and foreign crises until Republicans own the House on November 9, at which point everything will become a 5-alarm flaming emergency that is somehow Trumps fault. In the meantime, avoiding TSM and getting long other chip co’s, domestic energy + defense names.
China: There is a 2 - 3 year window where Russia and China have steerable hypersonic weapons and the U.S. does not. (the best the U.S. can do right now is launch from a bomber - one can assume that method is needed because it is so inefficient it cannot launch from the ground and reach a far away target. In effect the bomber is the rocket's first stage.) So if Russia was going to take over East Ukraine, it needed to do so now so the West would be afraid to engage directly. It's the same on Taiwan for China. My opinion is worth nothing, but I expect a Taiwan invasion within a year at most. No comment would be complete without a small insult: we in the U.S. would do well to remember that the average IQ in China is quite a bit higher than that here, and ours is dropping more with the southern border invasion. If you want to scoff, just look around you....
I have to believe that regarding Taiwan, Xi has watched Russia get flogged in Ukraine and summarily fail with their invasion, and that was easy, tanks rolling over plains. for China's military, with no real fighting experience, to transport sufficient forces across 100 miles of rough seas and attack a well armed mountainous island is a virtual impossibility. don't think they are going to attack at all
Hopefully, yes. But consider that all Beijing really needs to do is remove Taiwan from the global economy, not actually integrate it into their regime. In that sense, a naval interdiction of Taipei's commerce would be almost as good.
2- I think so, but I have no idea when that happens. I do also think China is chicken shit, and after seeing how poorly the Russian army has performed against Ukraine... the US/G7 countries could make a preemptive move that deters China from doing so.
3- Way above my pay grade!
4- Not sure, if the BRIC nations try to break off like you said... I don't think that makes the dollar turn to shit. Now seeing that 43% of the worlds GDP is from BRIC countries... maybe it does mess it up. Saudi support would be crucial... just as it is in many different scenarios
The Hungarian Wunderkind Zoltan Pozsar said computer chips are the future. If China takes Taiwan, they will have all of Taiwan's facilities on both Taiwanese and on Mainland Chinese soil. I think Putin's next and best move after the Ukraine would be to unite North and South Korea so he would have Korean chip makers on Korean and Chinese soil beholden to him. A unified Korea with a Russian alliance and both their missiles and their S-400 system would be capable of saying No to China. There are South Koreans who want to unite with the North as there are Taiwanese who want to unite with the Mainland. I wrote about that here: https://vidrebel.wordpress.com/
They would be a part of the same BRICS club. Egypt,Iran and Saudi Arabia want to join BRICS as well. That is the beauty of a Multipolar world, everyone can thrive. India and China have a border dispute but they are both founding members of BRICS.
The Chinese government long term cannot survive. We entered a Grand Solar Minimum in 2020 much like the Maunder Minimum of 1645 to 1715 when the price of wheat spiked 400% higher in certain years. In 1709 during the Big Freeze the top meter (nearly 40 inches) of the soil froze sending prices 600% higher in France. David Dubyne studied Chinese history and found that no Chinese government has ever survived a GSM. Dubyne used to be a food broker in China. They cannot feed their people.
I wrote about the sharply higher food prices and the increased number of volcanoes and earthquakes we can expect for the next 40 years.
The media refuses to give Russia any semblance of strength or wit (it is counter-narrative). I don't think China is in a hurry to take Taiwan - why now? What's the rush? Biden Admin needs to de-escalate Ukr/Ru war......but they won't. Biden Admin seems perfectly comfortable pushing the envelope as far as possible - right up to the brink of nuclear annihilation (the WH is run by childless millennials). The Dollar is being challenged and its already a slow transition. Its a knife that cuts both ways - USD dominance brings stability (globally) but at the mercy of US hegemony which people are getting sick of. The empire is dying - albeit - a slow death.
🤣 If the world doesn't love living under US hegemony, they're really not going to love Sino-Russian hegemony.
Probably true but more likely world will be multi polar.
The White House is run by maniacal psychopaths!
Pretty much what I was going to say. USD is going down but very slowly right now, still safe haven.
best 'hood in a deteriorating city of fiat.
Winter is coming. Russians have warm coats. Chinese make their own coats. Americans can offer used coats. Europeans will soon be chilled by reality.
I have friends and relatives in former Yugoslavia countries and I'm sure countries like Bulgaria and Romania are comparable: it seems the poorer, less developed countries are not so hard hit. They never really moved away from burning wood so are fairly well prepared for the coming winter. Many city dwellers have a 2nd property in the countryside or family in the countryside where wood heating is still quite common.
That just reinforces the idea of 'emergency preparedness' to me.
The problem, in my view, is that for some reason the US wants to rule the world, at whatever cost (war for example). They should think that the population of the USA is less than 5% of the world population and it's normal that China will become the most economically powerful nation. It's not good or bad, it's just different.
The alliance with Russia is just pragmatic. Russia is a powerhouse in terms of energy, minerals and food. What country could be better for China? They are even physically close.
The US will lose, slowly, their upper hand in the world and they will crush Europe in between, because the European leaders are completely overloaded with dollar debt. Too bad I'm in Europe, it feels scary.
Cheers, form Portugal!
Russia has world class mathematicians. Advanced mathematics is basis for our modern world. Unfortunately, a dictator system does not let them flourish.
I respect your opinion ,but I disagree. I don't see him as a dictator.
Yes they have a different way to behave and see the world, but it doesn't mean they are correct or not.
They have world class "everything" in science. Space program (they'll have their own space station), military systems, manufacturing for high precision, etc.
That's too bad "we" can't get along. too many egos.
Cheers!
Need competitive markets to let creativity flourish. Where is Russia’s Chip industry?
How do they build their satellites? Or guiding systems for weapons? All their space program? Their chips didn't came from the west for sure.
Maybe they don't have yet those fancy chips, but they now the technology and they can always connect with China.
How does the west is competitive without the metals, oil and gas from Russia? Or their uranium refining facilities?
It's very easy to find shortcomings everywhere. It's the result of globalization (and I'm not saying is good or bad).
One of the great strategic blunders of the 20th century was not allowing Russia to join NATO when they asked to join. Imagine the world with Russia, Europe, and the US cooperating economically and militarily. A real tragedy that is rarely mentioned.
Agree, major error on the part of the US. This is what happens when Raytheon and Lockheed Martin run our foreign policy.
The time and money China has invested in Bribery and Blackmail are paying off. Blind Eyes Abound. We have allowed ourselves to become addicted to the use of Chinese Labor, raw materials, and a rotating door, where Chinese profits are used to stabilize Western Debt. The West is cornered by it's own actions and decisions. We are stuck with "Hear No Evil, See No Evil, Speak No Evil". This goes far beyond the preferential treatment that has been illegally handed out to the Biden Syndicate.
And What Comes Next? I think Chinese planning and theories are very flexible and positioned to react to changing situations. You would have to be Privy to Xi's Gamebook, to see where the "Red Lines" are truly drawn. / (Do not underestimate the Chinese belief that in the end, only the Chinese people and model have any meaning. They are not "White Supremacists".)
I'll have a go.
I think two premises need to be established.
1) Is there actually a plan? Or is the West being led by a senile old man and a gaggle of power-hungry clueless millennials? To make any arguments, we must presume there is actually a plan, otherwise it's chaos all the way down.
2) The current war in Ukraine was intentionally instigated by Washington. This is a direct product of premise number 1, and seems to me blindly obvious, although no justification of Moscow's actions (but you cannot back a wounded bear into a corner and then get offended when it launches itself at your dogs. The answer is to not be one of Washington's dogs, easier said than done).
Once these two premises are agreed upon, then a coherent explanation to events may be sought.
If the answer to the above premises is affirmative, then we must presume that this plan extends to the destruction of Germany's (and, therefore, Europe's) industry, since in the run-up to the final bear-baiting in Ukraine, the Nord 2 was finally shut down on Washington's determined insistence, despite Europe not having anywhere nearly enough LNG capacity to substitute cheap Russian natural gas for American LNG, nor will have (for industrial purposes) for some years to come, after which any industrial capacity would have to be rebuilt, not just restarted.
I will go so far as to posit that this - the second American destruction of German industry - might well be the whole point of this exercise. What on earth was to be gained by bleeding a demographically dying yet nuclear-armed Russia to a premature death? The Russian Federation was already simply a source of raw non-value-added material to the global industry, and due to massive corruption of the oligarchy, at not 'risk' of re-industrializing in a serious way. If this, the second American destruction of German industry, was the whole point, then the added loss of Chinese industrial inputs and market would seem to be the logical next step. In this light, the provocation of Beijing regarding their open wound of Taiwan makes perfect sense. (Again, not defending Xi nor Putin, just trying to see things from their perspective, please don't get hysterical.) This, the end of German (ergo European and UK) industry, in the light of the ongoing American deglobalization, would seem to point towards a reestablishment of imperial commercial boundaries, as before WWII.
Parallel to this, but not necessarily dependent upon it, might be the forcing together of Russia and Beijing into an alliance, to be the dearly-missed bogeyman that the American Military-Industrial complex so badly needs to continue justifying its existence, and that the regime de-jour needs to continue justifying foreign adventures (although the overlap would seem to be great, and growing). This latter is a bit too close to conspiracy theory for my comfort, but not necessarily wrong.
"Without cheap gas, Europe's industry cannot survive. Factories all over Europe are currently shutting down production. And many will never start up again."
https://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/700169/De-Industrialisierung-Europas-Fabriken-stellen-die-Produktion-ein
Tick tock boom. There goes nord stream 2. Well anticipated. Given the twitter polls I’ve seen today vast majority (for what that’s worth) suspect USA responsible.
This Ukraine fixation didn't start with the Biden Admin. Our Deep State (the Intelligence Community part) has been heavily invested in Ukraine for decades, and Biden has been their tool. You are probably right that the current WH clowns have no plan, so the only people with a plan are the Deep State, who have long wanted to use Ukraine as a tool to destroy and dismember Russia. They impeached Trump over Ukraine, remember. Under the Biden Admin, the Deep State runs wild and controls the government.
The right move for the Biden admin militarily and economically? You really think the Biden admin decides anything? You think any US admin since Kennedy decided anything? The right move by America and Europe would be to question the totally disproportionate presence of jews in their administrative establishments (as opposed to constantly questioning the proportions of straight white Caucasian males) and to question why foreign policy for nigh on a century has largely benefitted such a small majority of the global population
Until this issue gets discussed, nothing makes any sense... the issue is never discussed and will likely not be here... why? If they were germans or japanese or welsh that were so disproportionately represented in US or European halls of power, the issue would be front cover and constantly discussed
Oy vey.
Yikes
Oh really now. The Mossad will be at your door in the morning. The Sunni-Shia divide makes Arab states closer to Israel and the West. The 5th fleet is the traffic cop for the entire Middle East oil producers. You think the Petro Dollar arrangement only benefits Jews?
You both make valid points.
LOL, I guess he missed the Abraham Accords.
One World Order. It’s a stage show.
(1) The last name of China’s president is Xi, not Jinping.
(2) Taiwan is recognized by almost the entire world (even Taiwan itself) as part of China.
(3) The US has goaded Russia into attacking Ukraine in the same way the US would attack Mexico if a foreign power overthrew the Mexican government, installed a puppet, and proceeded to load it with offensive weapons.
(4) Property rights used to be enshrined in law. The sanctions on Russia show that no country’s assets are free from confiscation by the west. (Venezuela and Afghanistan are the most recent, besides Russia.). Of course non-western governments will seek to protect their assets from being stolen by the US, EU, and UK.
---Only alt. media is doing enough, e.g., The Duran.
---China will continue to escalate pressure on Taiwan.
---The right move is to make peace with Russia and China, the new big kids on the block.
---The dollar will continue to lose value due to over-printing and new reserve currencies backed by gold.
Look where WEF Young Leaders are now. How many in leadership positions in China, Russia, USA???
Young folks have no business in leadership. However, old age doesn't guarantee, e.g., Biden. Putin is the best world leader by far.
Newsome is an example. Musk too.
History, which the USA barely even teaches anymore, is destined to repeat itself. NO empire lasts forever. The Saudis have openly ignored Biden, he is a fool - a puppet on a global stage. The BRIC nations are all realizing they can operate outside of the US as they need to look out for their own citizens. Germany & the European countries will indeed have a cold winter. Putin is playing chess while Biden's being fed oatmeal. China will invade Taiwan, because it can. Oil is being bought & sold in currency other than US dollars. The United States is weak, it's citizenry is extremely divided and the media is encouraging the division. The media has NO interest in talking about anything other than "woke" nonsense, further weakening and dividing the population. We, in my opinion, are witnessing the decline of the west.
-"Is the media not doing enough to play up the relationship between these two countries and the potential economic threat they pose?" The media is fixated on Russia vs. Europe and the mainstream is still using a 1999 lens to view the world order, where it is all part of a whole building overarching global connections. Therefore, they don't see the emergence of an applied focus on an alternative by Russia, China, et al.
-"Do you believe China is getting ready to try and launch a military effort against Taiwan?" Yes, but it is not something they actual want to employ in the short term. It's a device to keep pressure on Taiwan and to live rent free in the Taiwanese / US political mind. It's like a cowboy movie where they play poker in a saloon; everyone has a gun (or more), a friend (or more), but that's just to keep the everything balanced and clear the air of any sense of undue appropriation with the rules. No one wants a shoot out - they'd rather play, win, and sip whiskey without flipping the table and throwing smoke. China would prefer Taiwan to voluntarily (or mostly voluntarily) realize the rational reasons for unification, wherein the military operation is simply the handshake on the deal, rather than a brawl. The CCP is more than happy to be the Frenchman in the Castle (Monty Python), while the US is fragmenting into a empire built on virtue signaling at it's core. If the Chinese think another year or two results in a US Tiger that won't swing a claw in defense of Taiwan for practical or political reasons, which results in the isolation of Taiwan, they would much prefer that action. No one wants to see the TSMC foundries turn into smoking rubble, which I think is likely in a contested Chinese military seizure of the island.
-"What is the right move here for the Biden Administration - militarily and economically?" The administration needs to continue to show clear political support and military capability. Some economical risk needs to be on display in the form of geographic economic commitments to Taiwan itself. Further, the administration must keep a focus on the surrounding nations in South East Asia, all of which prefer a dominant US presence on the open seas versus a local Chinese hegemony.
-"Will there be a grand challenge to the U.S. dollar - if so, how crucial is Saudi support to the effort - and what will the outcome be?" Yes, but for practical reasons, it will be a second tier system, an alternative. It won't replace the USD globally, but be seen as another senior party and play well in forex. Think of a once dominant racer who has aged a bit. Still wins championships, but the total dominance of the past is gone, and there are some tracks where he comes in the top 4, vice the lead. Saudi support is more important for the gold-oil-Yuan system than for the US dollar. The outcome depends on the administrations ability to approach relations with the Saudis as a practical exercise or a virtue signaling exercise. There's a line where we can maintain criticism of the Saudi's with respect to appalling details of the Khashoggi case, but deal reasonably with the Saudi's as an energy and Middle Eastern leading nation. Can the Biden administration accomplish that? Magic 8 ball says 'doubtful'.
great analysis especially regarding USD.
The question isn’t will they try. They already are. They conduct constant feelers to test Taiwanese capabilities and the rest of the world’s appetite to support Taiwan.
To me the question is if Taiwan fights, how does China’s military perform an amphibious invasion of an island? It is one of the most difficult large scale military operations to pull off. We’re seeing with Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine creating fits of problems for Russia with no air power and all operations of the invading army conducted over land.
Will waves of Chinese soldiers charge through a hail of well set up defenses and certain death to overwhelm Taiwanese defenses? The logistics of supplying an invading army by sea and distributing resources to them on the ground in Taiwan seems rife with potential for bungling by an army with no experience conducting such an operation
I think China will do a Naval blockade on Taiwan. The only kinetic action will be if someone tries to run the blockade. They will simply strangle the island until they surrender, for many years if necessary.
.....media? really? who pays attention to bs...to be avoided
....china? move? doubtful.
...right move for biden? euthanasia
the center of the universe is and will shift to eurasia this has been known by some for 100 years.....the west has seen its final glory.....queen elizabeth's death an ominous signal for the london crowd of controllers....the kazarian tribe wanted to resurrect their historical kazaria in the form of a secular israel right at the exact juncture of the New
west- meets -east....what else you want to know?
Question #1: No. The media are simply corporate stenographers, and their corporate masters depend on cheap Chinese labor. Just as you will not hear anything negative on Pharma (who buy up 70% of their ad space) you will not hear anything true about China.
Question #2: Yes. And it will have to happen before the end of Biden's term. Biden is, to China, the devil they know (will not likely do anything direct) vice the devil they don't. The Chinese likely believe Biden is a one term President.
Question #3: The CCP governs by fear. The reach of their power is entirely a function of the reach of their knowledge concerning the activities of the population. And that depends entirely on data and technology now. Think of it this way: When law enforcement is allowed to use technology to surveil the population, old fashioned gumshoe policing skills atrophy. Their whole surveillance apparatus and social credit system is their Achilles heel. Take away their awareness of their populations' activities and you take away their ability to sow fear. Take that away and you take away their ability to govern.
Because they govern by fear and we govern by consent (at least to some remaining degree), if we end up at war, while the temporal costs will be grave beyond imagination, their form of government will not survive the conflict. Ours will. This is our inherent strategic advantage.
Question #4: Yes, but it is more likely to come from within than without. Or at least it should. How well is the dollar transmitting our labor to our living? We need to remember that every authority - including the authority to coin money and regulate its value - belongs to We the People. We delegated that to Congress for a variety of reasons, among which was to "...promote the general Welfare" (from the Preamble to the U.S. Constitution). We can always take that authority back.
Liberty in the digital age must be addressed from two angles: money and data (ownership). See here: https://digitallibertiesamendment.com/
Matt Gertken VP of Geopolitical Strategy of BCA Research spoke on Kitco News https://tinyurl.com/2p8pces8 Matt is a sharp thinker like you and his theory is Xi is POSTURING for the October congress and we won't know China's true intentions on Taiwan until early next year after the Congress. Peter Zeihan GeoPolitcs reminds us that 85% of what feeds China is imported as is their oil. Is Taiwan really worth upsetting that balance?
50% of Taiwan's Trade is with greater China, and, too many other factors are mutually beneficial. China attacking Taiwan is like USA attacking Canada when we already know who will win that war. Won't happen in any major way.
MSM? Only 0.2% of the USA pop watches CNN, I wonder why. Next question?
The right move for who? Who benefits?
Everyone will continue to devalue against the US dollar for their own benefit until that strategy no longer works. Then the USA accelerates into Elysium.
Agree, zero chance PRC invades Taiwan, besides the KMT party already wants to rejoin the mother country.
Russia is losing the war in Ukraine, badly. This failure shows China that Russia isn’t valuable as an ally. As a client state? Resource provider? Either, sure.
However, China is not going to risk moving before it’s ready against the US and Pacific allies to save Russia. China knows it has a problem securing sea lanes for resource imports, it knows it has not got that problem solved yet. Fortunately, most of the resources it needs, including tomorrow’s decent agricultural land, is north.
When Russia collapses, China will move to maintain stability in Siberia, doubling its land area and greatly improving its resource situation, without too many quarrelsome natives to contend with.
Within a few years, all of Russia’s east is China’s “northern resource area,” to borrow Japan’s pre-war term.
Do you really believe Russia is losing badly? It is clear they are not doing well, but Russia still has some big cards to play that it hasn't used yet. It is hard to know the true state of the war when the Media is mostly pushing propaganda.
It's not media spin to notice that the Russian right flank just staggered backwards when the Ukrainians launched an offensive, nor that the largest chunk remaining of their regular army is stuck on the wrong side of a major river with the bridges damaged or blown.
Putin wouldn't be mobilizing if they were winning a conventional war. The Russians are telling us it's going very badly for them and the guys in charge are worried.
They have big cards to play, that's true! Mobilization may let them hang in this war for years, and if Western support dwindles may hand them the advantage again.
Otoh, mobilized Russian armies routinely mutinied under the Tsars, is Putin really any better?
In the end, Ukraine has momentum now, even Russian TV is freaking out about that. Sometimes momentum reverses, true, but often when it's bad its telling you something's a zero.
If there were a way for us to invade and take Siberia...
The media are stuck in a 'Russia / China' are evil mode so there is little sense coming from then with regard to serious issues.
I do believe China is gearing-up for an attack on Taiwan which I may take place in the second half of next year.
The correct move for the Biden Admin is to stop attempting to continue with a unipolar world and try and arrange a ceasefire and a peaceful solution to the Ukraine war. Economically, co-operation with China / Russia and the rest of the world will be far more beneficial than trying to continue with the US as the sole economic superpower (even though this only so in the minds of the US elite).
The US effectively killed the US dollar when is sanctioned the Russian Central Bank. Few countries now wish to put themselves in the same position and I agree that China / Russia are readying their own currency - digital or otherwise. Saudi will try and join the BRICS. All sensible countries (inc India) are trying to flee from the US-centric world. The goose is cooked.
The day is rapidly coming when all worthless paper money instruments will be just that -- worthless. What made the dollar the world's reserve currency, namely our rule of law and the ferocity of the US business class, have been replaced with banana republic deep state morons and a a morally bankrupt, rent-seeking business class. The entire class of bubble/fake money financial investors who are akin to bald guys arguing over combs will realize (too late) that their skills are as worthless as the paper money they used to trade.
To a large extent, it has been US military might that has made the USD the reserve currency.
Germany had lost WW1 and was impoverished. Germany did not have a reserve currency nor carrier groups patrolling the high seas.
~800 days of Biden remaining. Aka the "shot clock". I tend to believe this was the exact reason for which weak old man Biden was "elected". To create a power vacuum. Putin took the bait and invaded, but failed to recognize the unifying effect his invasion would have on the west (oops). Remember the 'ghost of kyiv' story? So contrived. Purpose: unify the west and pump up Ukraine for a long fight. The only reason any of us cared about the invasion is because our brains were saturated by years worth of COVID spew. We were incredibly divided (politically) and in desperate need of anything else to focus on. So basically, in a single moment (invasion) the whole world snapped out of a mass formation psychosis. Powerful stuff there. Could COVID have been released with the purpose of marching us into this state? Who knows. Did lockdowns and hysteria make sense? Lol.
China has been the obvious ally for kgb boy, however, they can't deny their dependence on the rest of the developed world as a customer. Do they want to isolate themselves the way Putin has? I don't think so. I think they are a false ally, but also I believe they have piles of dirt on the big guy (Biden). Yes, China is in a pretty good position. So, that brings up Taiwan. There is no viable way to defend that little island and it would be a big mistake (imo) to try. China today is so much more powerful than 20 years ago. My hope is there has been a back room agreement by the US to 'give' Taiwan to China (a major power-shift moment). Perhaps with an agreement for supply of future cheap Chi-wan chips? Perhaps with an agreement to slow-play and later abandon Putin? Timing of takeover could be as soon as this winter when Europe is freezing (and markets possibly bleeding). But really, 800 days.
Yes, it's my conspiracy theory, but when for years so damn much didn't make sense, anything has a chance of being true.
cheering on the end of the world just so you can have a sense of smug satisfaction when it finally happens (although it’ll be a hard expression to read when ALL of our faces are melting off in the nuclear fallout) is a pretty lousy way to use your platform
Thanks! Enjoy your articles! JL
This was apparently approved the other day. Major wrong move IMO
https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20220903-us-approves-1-1-billion-arms-package-for-taiwan-angering-china
The US imperialism is the continuation of the British empire, ever heard of the Eastern Roman Empire or Byzantine Empire? Similar story....Dalio's cycles is a valid key of interpretation, although did not connect the dots between US and UK and did not call it The Anglo-Saxon Empire, whose duration is more in line with the cyclical pattern of history. So many parallels could be drawn that is amazing, it's like a movie already watched...the most relevant thing in common is the ineptitude of the elites and delusional grandeur that marked both Byzantium and Washington at the end of the cycle. The China-Russia connection fits the Byzantine narrative. After Byzantium collapsed, the World (from a Mediterranean centric perspective) became multipolar, lots of small-medium regional powers filling the void. The main difference is that the Anglo-Saxon Empire is/was global, not Mediterranean, so it's a different game. English like Latin will last for centuries and will always be the world language, becoming Spanglish etc, can you see Mandarin or Russians becoming global languages and, most importantly, the World Wide Web languages?? Things are going to change, for sure, not necessarily in the wrong direction if we will ever understand that it's only through cooperation that we can survive and thrive either as single human beings and nations
Biden is more Obama-II every day. Henry K @ JPM PB this week: "Don’t make threats you won’t deliver on".
Trump was 100% right: Taiwan is a pencil eraser. The more noise we make, the better internal narrative they’ll have for changing Taiwan status quo—-just like Putin has full support for “liberating” Ukraine from Western threat after we wasted years of hegemony mindlessly expanding NATO as a military alliance instead of repurposing it for a post-Soviet world.
What to do now? Engage China instead of encircling. Repair China relationship, isolate Russia.
- The media, being an extension of the DNC and the deep state, is doing their best see-no-evil impression in order to run cover for the Biden administration.
- I believe that China has had an actionable plan to invade Taiwan for some time now. It's just a question of "when" more than "if" (IMO).
- The right move for the Biden administration is a tricky question because their interest is separate from "the good of the country" as a whole. On that count, I won't answer to not give them any ideas via the feds reading your substack.
- The grand challenge to the US dollar is already in progress. Saudi support can help it along but, at this point, it's more like they're coming along for the ride. The outcome is going to be a substantially diminished USA by several measures.
Interesting about gold & silver disappearing. That right along with the value of my gold positions. I mean, have you seen /GC today?! WTF?! Did somebody find a billion tons of gold recently?! Golden asteroid hit the earth that I don't know about? Somebody finally figure out how to make it from some other metal(s)? You'd think so looking at the damn futures price!!
* The media is controlled and corrupt and 100% exists to control the narrative with propoganda---no further comment needed
* No---I think China is always methodical and patient; 180 degrees for the idiots in the West. There is a 100% chance they will take over Taiwan but they won't do it until it is the right timing for them and the Eastern transition
* Stop making stupid decisions that are killing the US and the west. Economically, I think it is too late. The US has been a corrupt Imperialist Bully selfishly destroying other countries both militarily and through the SWIFT system for 50 years now and has destroyed the global economic system---See Creatures of Jekyl Island (this was not an accident)
* The US $ won't go away but it will become relatively worthless. China likely has 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes of gold and Russia has much. The US $ won't go away but it will be destroyed in its value. The Eastern Alliance with 75%??? of the world's population and massive commodity / rare earth position will dominate the future and the US will become equivalent to a third world country
* The US has been a GREAT nation of entrepreneurs with free speech and guns. The global elite can now allow this to exist and has been working methodically toward to destroying the US for the past 100 years.
Obvously, I do not have many opinions (:)
The media will continue ignoring various domestic (power grid, water supply, homelessness, debt/deficit, etc.) and foreign crises until Republicans own the House on November 9, at which point everything will become a 5-alarm flaming emergency that is somehow Trumps fault. In the meantime, avoiding TSM and getting long other chip co’s, domestic energy + defense names.
That’s what makes markets
China: There is a 2 - 3 year window where Russia and China have steerable hypersonic weapons and the U.S. does not. (the best the U.S. can do right now is launch from a bomber - one can assume that method is needed because it is so inefficient it cannot launch from the ground and reach a far away target. In effect the bomber is the rocket's first stage.) So if Russia was going to take over East Ukraine, it needed to do so now so the West would be afraid to engage directly. It's the same on Taiwan for China. My opinion is worth nothing, but I expect a Taiwan invasion within a year at most. No comment would be complete without a small insult: we in the U.S. would do well to remember that the average IQ in China is quite a bit higher than that here, and ours is dropping more with the southern border invasion. If you want to scoff, just look around you....
2024 china invades Taiwan
I have to believe that regarding Taiwan, Xi has watched Russia get flogged in Ukraine and summarily fail with their invasion, and that was easy, tanks rolling over plains. for China's military, with no real fighting experience, to transport sufficient forces across 100 miles of rough seas and attack a well armed mountainous island is a virtual impossibility. don't think they are going to attack at all
Hopefully, yes. But consider that all Beijing really needs to do is remove Taiwan from the global economy, not actually integrate it into their regime. In that sense, a naval interdiction of Taipei's commerce would be almost as good.
Xi will order a naval blockade of Taiwan once his navy is large enough and their access denial capabilities are sufficient.
I couldn't disagree with you more...
1- 100% yes
2- I think so, but I have no idea when that happens. I do also think China is chicken shit, and after seeing how poorly the Russian army has performed against Ukraine... the US/G7 countries could make a preemptive move that deters China from doing so.
3- Way above my pay grade!
4- Not sure, if the BRIC nations try to break off like you said... I don't think that makes the dollar turn to shit. Now seeing that 43% of the worlds GDP is from BRIC countries... maybe it does mess it up. Saudi support would be crucial... just as it is in many different scenarios
The Hungarian Wunderkind Zoltan Pozsar said computer chips are the future. If China takes Taiwan, they will have all of Taiwan's facilities on both Taiwanese and on Mainland Chinese soil. I think Putin's next and best move after the Ukraine would be to unite North and South Korea so he would have Korean chip makers on Korean and Chinese soil beholden to him. A unified Korea with a Russian alliance and both their missiles and their S-400 system would be capable of saying No to China. There are South Koreans who want to unite with the North as there are Taiwanese who want to unite with the Mainland. I wrote about that here: https://vidrebel.wordpress.com/
How would China react to to Russia-North-South-Korea alliance?
They would be a part of the same BRICS club. Egypt,Iran and Saudi Arabia want to join BRICS as well. That is the beauty of a Multipolar world, everyone can thrive. India and China have a border dispute but they are both founding members of BRICS.
The Chinese government long term cannot survive. We entered a Grand Solar Minimum in 2020 much like the Maunder Minimum of 1645 to 1715 when the price of wheat spiked 400% higher in certain years. In 1709 during the Big Freeze the top meter (nearly 40 inches) of the soil froze sending prices 600% higher in France. David Dubyne studied Chinese history and found that no Chinese government has ever survived a GSM. Dubyne used to be a food broker in China. They cannot feed their people.
I wrote about the sharply higher food prices and the increased number of volcanoes and earthquakes we can expect for the next 40 years.
https://vidrebel.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/2020s-surviving-the-cold-the-quakes-and-volcanoes/