I usually don’t do posts on the weekend but was really enjoying reading some of the responses on YouTube to my latest podcast, where I discuss how soaring inflation is absolutely brutalizing the middle class. For those that haven’t heard that podcast, you can listen to it for free, here:
As I note in my podcast, I continue to feel like it is a farce for the current administration to suggest that the inflation we are witnessing now - that disproportionately negatively affects the middle and lower class - is some kind of beacon of progress or good thing for the country.
It’s also a farce to believe, at face value, when officials say that they think they have the numbers under control. As most of you already know, inflation is as much psychological as it is numerical, and the collective psyche of the country seems to be spinning up a flywheel of worry about the rising cost of everything from oil to groceries.
When and if the psychological break happens is when people start worrying about the pull forward of demand and collective concern that can really drive prices much higher, quicker, as a result of a change in consumer behavior (i.e. hoarding, spending less).
There’s no doubt inflation is causing raw costs to rise, as we have witnessed in commodities. This is why, in my most recent interview with Doomberg this week, the collective predicts that oil could actually hit $300 per barrel, or higher. You can read Part 1 of that interview here:
Meanwhile, what I loved reading in your comments was where - exactly - in your day-to-day lives are you seeing inflation the most. Please list specifics and price examples, and any way in which this has altered your behavior as a consumer as a result.
You can list your firsthand example of the effects of inflation below:
Dungeness crab season just started in Northern California - $17.49 lb !!! Normally $3/$5 lb, last year it was at $15 and we did not buy any all season for first time in my life.
Artichokes $6.99 each - have come down now to $2.99 since no one would touch them at the higher price.
Rib eye and filet mignon steaks doubled in price last month, rib eyes now $19/$21 lb and filet $25/$28 lb. However, other beef cuts are still the same prices, so this makes zero sense to me except they want us commoners to no longer eat the best cuts.
I could go on and on. We dropped the weekly gardener service and the monthly pest control service to compensate, but we are still not balancing on costs/to income.
Shipping: latest order from a vendor was $3,300 for shipping 6 pallets (shipping is now 40% of the full order cost) ... Would have cost half that 18 months ago.... and it's 3 weeks late. Let's go Brandon!
We bought a pair of Husky 4-shelf units for $199/ea from Home Depot in August, now $349 consistently. Have been checking almost weekly because we need a 3rd unit but not at these prices.
Since my wife and I are both retired, where we notice inflation the most is at the grocery store. Our closest large supermarket is part of the Kroger family (Fred Meyer). One way the inflation pinches you is with "shrinkflation." For example, a particular blend of Kroger labelled coffee (it's actually pretty good, it's smooth - we like it) had the container recently shrink from 30.5 oz to 24 oz. Same price. But this is not a surprise. Chris has referred to the Kroger exec warning that prices were going up. Just be aware it is the unit price that can stealthily reflect the price increase, much like the orange juice containers that have shrunk from 64 fluid oz, to 59 oz, and now are 52 oz. Ouch.
Inflation has affected my spouse and I physically largely due to increased costs for food and fuel but psychologically for everything else. We are delaying other discretionary purchases simply because markets for most goods from ribeye steak to cabins offer absolutely no value for money. Inflation in all things will result in many scaling back (doing with less) their purchases until prices come back down to earth. Wash, rinse, repeat :(
A number of things are different now than they were in the 70's. The biggest and most important difference is debt levels. Debt levels are extremely high. Do consumers have the capacity to take on debt to pay for inflation? That is what we're going to find out (I don't think they do). In the 70's interest rates had to be raised to tame demand inflation. The central banks have backed themselves into a corner. They can't stop the flow of money/raise rates because that would destroy what's left of the economies they preside over but I don't think it matters because high prices and debt levels are going to quell demand over the years ahead.
Corporate profits are going to suffer which (you can only buy back so much stock) and blow up the ultra-inflated worldwide stock bubble which will bring about the end of the business cycle through capital destruction. This will cause a deflation and lower prices for everything (just my opinion for what it's worth).
Our (very rural) property taxes went from $400 last year to $700 this year. That was based on updated sales data in the local area and likely is reflective of increased local housing prices.
I worked years in property tax appraisal. That sounds like way too much of an increase. You might consider a Board of Revisions review of your property valuation.
S A M E. I'm rural and property taxes went up 40%. It feels like so many businesses are closing down the local government has to find a way to make up the difference. I don't know why it hasn't occurred to them that if the businesses are closed people are out of work, and higher taxes is just going to lose people their homes. I'm already looking at moving, something I would have never considered before. But I have to feed my kids.
Every week I buy the same exact 12 food items at Costco. In the spring time this year the trip cost me $100-102 every week. That exact same trip is now $137.
I have noticed the same at Costco. Many items up at least 30%, and others higher (frozen berries, fish, meat, etc). Propane 20lb re-fill from $12 to $17.
Gas is the most obvious but I remember before we got fracking going when it was higher so that's not the one I'm most concerned about. The "sneaky" inflation is the stuff that hasn't been catching my eye right away but now that I'm aware its everywhere. The sneaky inflation is what comes from shrink-flation and the loss of promotions. I go to my local grocery store's ad and what used to be 6-8 pages is now around 4. And then the "specials" are hardly that. Steaks are now hardly ever advertised and $9/lb when they are. Also I noted to cut down on expenses specials are usually only in bulk, for example, those steaks on special are only when you buy 4 of them in a family pack. Cutting down on the shrink-wrap and meat tray expenses, I'm sure.
I see the most obvious and outrageous increase in prices at the grocery store, gas pump and restaurants. The high cost of food at grocery stores has replaced our previous enjoyment at restaurants. The high cost of gas for our cars makes it impossible for us to go on long drive for a vacation as well as to afford the inflationary cost for a hotel/motel.
We are stuck in gratitude for having a home that we can afford to maintain, with utilities, and food to eat.
Propane is more volatile than nat gas and crude. My shopping trip is heavily weighted with 🐟 🐓 🥩 and 🍳. So that probably explains the main culprits. Although the eggs are still priced as they were 6 months ago. I expect as the ags rise with the pending commodity boom, the chicken feed will increase and the egg prices will rise with everything else. Widespread draught conditions throughout the upper Midwest already inflated meat prices. With the hay yield less than 50% of the average, there are fees shortages for cattle, causing farmers to send more of their herd to slaughter in the fall than normal so they aren’t short of feed for their herds… just wait for the spring time, we should see a meaningful shortage of beef in particular as farmers refocus on calving and replenishing the normal herd sizes. And that’s just ONE input driving this particular situation.
San Francisco bay area - last year premium gas was around $4 /gallon, just paid $5.35, have seen it close to $5.60. My 17 gallon tank is $90 to fill every week.
Alameda county sales tax rate is 10.75%, they are trying to raise it to 11.25%
Inflation has hit almost everything in the PNW. Groceries are up about 20-25percent over last year at WinCo. Local government is holding town hall discussions on prioritizing spending the 2 tranches of Fed$. We are screwed financially 💸💸
Just bought 10# of dry aged prime cowboy steaks (rib) for $50 a pound. Last year it was in the high $20's. Not exactly a middle and lower class problem.
I go eat chicken wings once a week at my favorite TGIF in Prague, Czech Republic. Until the pandemic onset in March 2020, I paid 395 CZK (about $18) for 12 wings, and a Czech beer.
I now pay 590 CZK (~$27), 18 months later. Restaurants.
Beginning of the year I was driving a twin turbo Ford Flex that I loved. 16 Gallon tank cost about $30 to fill and it averaged about 20 miles mixed driving. I just sold it for a 10 year old Prius. 10 Gallon tank cost me a little over $30 to fill. LGB.
Ribeye was $8 per lb. Now it is fluctuating between $12 and $16. I am on a carnivore diet to deal with severe food allergies. Pasta and kale is not a viable alternative.
So far the socialists have given me a tremendous reduction in the standard of living and an almost 100% increase in cost of the goods I use.
I'm on budget plans with NIPSCO and Indiana Michigan Power. NIPSCO monthly went from $78 to $105 and Indiana Michigan Power from $105 to $157.
Property taxes were raised 40%+ across the entirety of St. Joseph county Indiana. We've gone from eating meat 4-6 times a week for dinner to once a week and no produce or veggies that are out of season.
There'll be nothing cool or fun for kids for Christmas, just blankets, much needed tires, or clothes for that second or third job.
Oh, and side note, I'm vaccinated but don't think it's a good idea to submit to allowing the government to dictate that medical papers are required in order to make a living. My DoD contractor employer has indicated I'll be punished (they haven't been specific in the punishment, we encouraged to fret over it) December 8th (not Jan 4).
As I'm a single parent, this year has been bewilderingly stressful and soon to be soul crushing. If I wanted to raise my kids in Ceausecu's Romania and have the government and my employer involved in my bodily functions, I would have moved there.
How did this happen, and how did it happen so quickly??
Everything is going up double-digits but the biggest impact is in home related expenses. Home insurance has increased from $550 to $1100 per year. Property taxes increased $900 this year alone. Both are caused by a meteoric rise in home values. I obviously must pay taxes but I will no longer buy home insurance. I own a 17 year-old car that I bought new for $17K. An equivalent replacement today costs over $35K plus a few thousand dealer mark up. I planned on buying a new car but gave up. Will keep fixing my old car instead. Health care costs are reaching insane levels. I needed a root-canal but didn't want to spend $1500 out of pocket (I do have insurance). Got an extraction instead. Food and gas prices are of course a problem, too, but lesser impact compared to the big ticket items listed above.
The inflation is in the stock market, Real Estate and Crypto markets. The middle class is getting hammered by everything out here in California. The fact that the dollar hasn’t become unglued with interest rates where they are is a testament to how screwed up the rest of the world is and the fact that we are testing the limits of debt creation and reserve currency status. I feel like I’m playing Musical chairs with the exits guarded by men with big machine guns. You are forced to play the markets in a kind of asset class that could conceivably go tits up at a moments notice. Love listening to the podcasts and have made good Money on stock ideas that you have made since I’ve become a member 3 months ago. As a recovering Alcoholic I will pass on the three drink minimum though. Thanks again.
My favorite value level potato chips were 1.12/bag up until 2 weeks ago, now they are 1.49/bag.
Doctors at hospitals bill insurance companies for dropping by on rounds to see patients. They will spend an average of 9 minutes in conversation, bill out for 45 minutes, then have their requested rate of $495/hour be paid by insurer or medicare at $300/hour with no verification of actual time spent (I was patient recently). Even with 6 minute average travel time between patients they make $1200/hour net! Wish I could make that routinely. Wonder why premiums are high?
Dollar Tree stores took advantage of hard up unemployed during pandemic to hire at $10/hour gross (before deductions & transportation, $8/hr net). Since you can not live on that part of their workforce has moved on & stores cut hours by 25% due to labor shortage. Products within stores have generally gotten smaller size. Good buy used to be 8 pecan swirls in pack for $1, now 6 in pack, each 3% smaller. -Charlie N
Excerpts from Dollar Tree Ceo Interview (thanks to Investech Research) ABOUT TO BECOME the "$2 DOLLAR TREE"
“Raising prices on items that were previously $1 is not likely to be welcomed and it may, at least initially, cause some customer dissatisfaction. However, Dollar Tree needs to take this step as its fixed price point model cannot work in a high inflation environment where costs are rising dramatically.”
“Freight costs have reached unprecedented levels as a result of increased demand, limited capacity, and shipping delays. For context, 3 months ago, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, which reflects spot rates on ocean freight from China, was already at an all-time high, up more than 280% year-over-year and more than 400% since 2019. These rates have continued to rise and have increased more than 20% since we last reported on May 27.”
You can definitely see from these comments that if you provide a service as a business, you may be going out of business in 2 years because of this inflation. Everyone is cutting off pest control services, which I also did in August, 2021 and now I am about to cut off my pool service which is $160 per month. These poor business owners, the business environment is changing so fast!
March 2020-People cancel pool service because they are laid off for Covid outbreak.
March 2021- People want pool service back, but too many new customers and now Pool Company cannot get workers. 2 pool companies tell me they cannot take any new customers. I find one that charges a little more at $160 per month.
Nov 2021- I cancel my pool service due to increasing inflation in all other bills.
March 2022- ?? Maybe a lot of people cannot afford to keep pool service as inflation continues which results in too many pool company employees and they have to lay someone off?
How can you manage a business in this type of environment? People have to consume food and energy, so the relief valve is dropping your "services" to save your budget. If you run a "service" business, good luck friend, this is going to be a very difficult decade as people cancel lawn service, pest control service, pool service, home monitoring service, etc.
I have means so nothing has changed my behavior. But, I buy ribs to smoke at Costco. Have for years. ALWAYS a vacuum sealed 3 pack. This week they started breaking them and repackaging in a 2 pack due to price.
For us it's been mainly the costs of fuel and food. We're a rural, working poor family of five. The kids are in their teens. I have a 30-mile-plus round trip for work each night. We can't afford a newer, more fuel-efficient vehicle, so my fuel costs for work are now between $60 and $80 per week (a year ago they would have been about half of that). Family trips to town for anything other than essentials have become few and far between. Our son is starting to look at college and I'm trying to set aside some funds for the inevitable trips to various campus tours and exams and other expenses, but with our car on its last legs, I really hope I can get him situated with his further education before it's all gone to get another clunker since there's no way in hell we would risk making payments on something as risky as a car.
With inflation on the rice, someone asked the obvious question: are people using more credit to buy necessities? Open revolving credit should be up YoY, no? For example, most “middle” class to low middle class people don’t really understand credit cost. To them it’s all about servicing a monthly debt. No matter that the dinner they paid for today at $50 will cost them double because of interest on a high balance credit card. Thoughts?
My wife and I are both retired and in our mid 70s. Split out time between Southern California and rural Idaho. Food prices in CA are outrageous, but in Idaho not so much.. except for the better cuts of beef and pork back ribs. Fuel is outrageous in both places. As an example, in January 2020 I was paying about $2.20 per gallon for diesel in Idaho and right now it is over $4/gallon up here. Last summer residential propane delivered was less than $1/gallon and this year the best price I could find was $1.449/gallon to fill up a 1000 gallon tank. That's what happens when America is no longer "energy independent" and at the mercy of OPEC for energy, thanks to Joe and the Ho.
I buy grassfed/pasture raised beef and pork from a local farmer in the upper midwest. This is what he told me a few months ago: "This year our grain prices have increased 40%, our processing costs have increased 40%, hay prices have increased 200%, and the cost of piglets has increased 100%. We're losing money selling meat right now, and we don't want to increase the CSA prices and so we're trying to figure out what to do about it." We did not see a drought in our area but most of the local hay harvest was sent out west.
Just renewed my natural gas contract at 69 cents per therm for a 24 month contract. It was 51 cents previously. Essentially 25% higher. Luckily I had replaced my traditional gas water heater with a tankless model, and I only use 2 - 3 therms per month from April to October. Winter heating bill is definitely going higher.
Food, My wife cannot believe how much it costs, and we live and eat very modestly. Gasoline and heating oil. Electric. Here in PA, the state that exports the most electric. My 12 month contract expired at .0708, entered into a new contract with another company. Another contract at 12 months was .0788 per KWh. I took a 4 year contract for .0999 because I am betting it will go much higher shortly. Can't get parts, let along paying an increased price. Car/truck parts, tractor parts, you just can't find stuff. Tires, some tires are hard to impossible to find. My shop tells me the manufactures (mostly in China) have stopped making some sizes and models and just making a few models and most popular sizes, just like the ammo manufactures did.The frigging post office was closed on Sat because they cant get people to work. A eatery can't get 5 gallon containers of ice cream because the manufacture cannot locate the metal ring that seals the lid. This thing is falling apart and we are ALL going down with the ship. Where are the people that use to work? Where did they go and how are they paying their bills?
Rib Eye Steaks at Costco in 2020 = 8.99 a lb. Last week, now = 19.99 a lb., Toilet paper and paper towels at costco more expensive, and there are now less sheets on each roll by 20% then last year. Gas in CA averages 4.60 a gallon, all produce has increased by 30% minimum.
Gas and food prices have limited food choices and movement. I try to coast my way home from grocery store on gas fumes; It really annoys folks behind me. I am 73 and thinking I need an electric tri-cycle, but can't afford it. Besides if gas prices stay up, electricity prices are bound to take off as well. I live in Florida; may have to spend summers sitting in a cheap plastic kiddie pool to keep from overheating. Can't believe we were finally energy-independent under President Trump, and less than a year later, we are in a fuel crisis.
There are so many examples that could be mentioned, but this one is the freshest: Great Lakes Christmas Ale sixer was $12 last year. $13 this year. It’s bad that 8% isn’t the worst individual example by any stretch. Also, it makes the 3 drink minimum a little pricier this weekend. But I do it to honor you properly, Chris.
had a garage roof with new sheathing and 60 ft of 2X6 joists costs are lower than during summer but way above what it used to be. I'm Midwest so homes above 300k are not typical. but it's getting there now. so the older homes have gone up and the county is eyeing these prices like a cougar watching a baby deer
Intermediate car rented for the Canadian long weekend at the end of July: 60 per day; intermediate car rented for the most recent Thurs-Sun, 92 per day.
Food up a lot and it's not like you can avoid eating. Heating costs up 50% Gas...Yeah, I'm just selling my car. Well, we're selling the house and going off grid.
Let me give you a Canadian perspective. I can list 100s of items from basic perishable fruits & vegetables to dry groceries and canned food ALL are above 35% price increase so far this year and that is at a low-end grocery store chain. Any item that still has same price, is a lot smaller size on average by 30% - a marketing deception ! Dollar store (Dollarama) barely has anything now priced at a 1$, all starts at $1.25 and most items go to $4 now. It is not a $1 store anymore for over a year ! Gas went from $1.15 to $1.48 a liter on average.
Condo monthly fee went from $245 to $260 starting in Jan 2022.
Bowling league fees increased as much as 18%. I bowl in four leagues and the weekly fees increased as follows: $10 to $11 for Sr. League, $15 to 16 for Sunday, $17 to 20 for Tuesday and $17 to 18 for Friday.
I also see the higher prices for food and gas. Here is a new one my pest control company recently started charging an additional $39.99 per quarterly bug treatment. It all adds up and eventually you have to stop relying on these services and either doing it yourself and do without.
Amazing SOOOO many people talk about recurring pest control treatments with toxic chemicals. What is up with that? Are you completely overrun with bugs so that you would have your family breathe this poison for months on end. Are you crazy?
I went to an upscale seafood restaurant called Pappadeaux about 5 years ago and a great seafood combo platter was $19.95(very yummy). I went to the same restaurant last week and had the same meal but the cost now is $42.50 !!
Because I bought Bitcoin and other cryptos a few years back, I can cash out some of my profits here and there so the inflation is not a big deal to me. Also I'm frugal and drive a dependable 16 year old Toyota and live in a rental 4 plex that only costs me $875 per month and I just signed a year lease so that price can't go up for a while
as a landscaper, i dumped a load of greenwaste today at $60 per ton. one year ago it was $20 per ton, modesto ca area. transporation costs and the fact that there is so much green waste and no useful end product but compost, with requirement to eliminate landfill space is driving this higher and higher.
Buying materials for my farming projects. Putting together a couple of simple, mobile chicken tractors was exorbitant. To raise 100 birds in a closed coop cost me roughly $4 per bird in materials! Going to have to raise birds in them a few times to try and make it back.
I line in San Jose, CA. Prices in everything are up across the board. Local government and municipalities are killing the average person with additional special assessments to pay for things like water improvement projects. I’m not opposed to this of course, but voters don’t seem to care they are enabling our elected officials to keep pinching our wallets. We are now at $5.00 a gallon for regular. I quart of Strauss Yogurt was selling for $9.89 at Lucky’s.
I bought a package of Oscar Mayer bacon for 10.99. Saw it a little cheaper today for 9.89. Use to be under 6 bucks. Was redecorating my house but at half done I’ve given up. Paint and supplies are outrageous. 75.00 for a gallon of Benjamin Moore paint and Sherwin Williams is about the same.
I am buying the cheap toilet paper at the dollar store, now that a package of 9 rolls is $15 at my grocery store. Buying a bit less beef and more eggs and fish.
Dungeness crab season just started in Northern California - $17.49 lb !!! Normally $3/$5 lb, last year it was at $15 and we did not buy any all season for first time in my life.
Artichokes $6.99 each - have come down now to $2.99 since no one would touch them at the higher price.
Rib eye and filet mignon steaks doubled in price last month, rib eyes now $19/$21 lb and filet $25/$28 lb. However, other beef cuts are still the same prices, so this makes zero sense to me except they want us commoners to no longer eat the best cuts.
I could go on and on. We dropped the weekly gardener service and the monthly pest control service to compensate, but we are still not balancing on costs/to income.
Shrinkflation at the gym. I pay the same amount, but it isn’t open 24 hours anymore. (My previous gym charges more and opens at a later time.)
Shipping: latest order from a vendor was $3,300 for shipping 6 pallets (shipping is now 40% of the full order cost) ... Would have cost half that 18 months ago.... and it's 3 weeks late. Let's go Brandon!
We bought a pair of Husky 4-shelf units for $199/ea from Home Depot in August, now $349 consistently. Have been checking almost weekly because we need a 3rd unit but not at these prices.
https://www.homedepot.com/p/Husky-Black-4-Tier-Heavy-Duty-Industrial-Welded-Steel-Garage-Shelving-Unit-77-in-W-x-78-in-H-x-24-in-D-HBR782478W4/310651468
Since my wife and I are both retired, where we notice inflation the most is at the grocery store. Our closest large supermarket is part of the Kroger family (Fred Meyer). One way the inflation pinches you is with "shrinkflation." For example, a particular blend of Kroger labelled coffee (it's actually pretty good, it's smooth - we like it) had the container recently shrink from 30.5 oz to 24 oz. Same price. But this is not a surprise. Chris has referred to the Kroger exec warning that prices were going up. Just be aware it is the unit price that can stealthily reflect the price increase, much like the orange juice containers that have shrunk from 64 fluid oz, to 59 oz, and now are 52 oz. Ouch.
Inflation has affected my spouse and I physically largely due to increased costs for food and fuel but psychologically for everything else. We are delaying other discretionary purchases simply because markets for most goods from ribeye steak to cabins offer absolutely no value for money. Inflation in all things will result in many scaling back (doing with less) their purchases until prices come back down to earth. Wash, rinse, repeat :(
if the stagflation of the 70s holds true now, the prices will not come down
A number of things are different now than they were in the 70's. The biggest and most important difference is debt levels. Debt levels are extremely high. Do consumers have the capacity to take on debt to pay for inflation? That is what we're going to find out (I don't think they do). In the 70's interest rates had to be raised to tame demand inflation. The central banks have backed themselves into a corner. They can't stop the flow of money/raise rates because that would destroy what's left of the economies they preside over but I don't think it matters because high prices and debt levels are going to quell demand over the years ahead.
Corporate profits are going to suffer which (you can only buy back so much stock) and blow up the ultra-inflated worldwide stock bubble which will bring about the end of the business cycle through capital destruction. This will cause a deflation and lower prices for everything (just my opinion for what it's worth).
Our (very rural) property taxes went from $400 last year to $700 this year. That was based on updated sales data in the local area and likely is reflective of increased local housing prices.
I worked years in property tax appraisal. That sounds like way too much of an increase. You might consider a Board of Revisions review of your property valuation.
S A M E. I'm rural and property taxes went up 40%. It feels like so many businesses are closing down the local government has to find a way to make up the difference. I don't know why it hasn't occurred to them that if the businesses are closed people are out of work, and higher taxes is just going to lose people their homes. I'm already looking at moving, something I would have never considered before. But I have to feed my kids.
Every week I buy the same exact 12 food items at Costco. In the spring time this year the trip cost me $100-102 every week. That exact same trip is now $137.
35% in less than a year…
wow!
I have noticed the same at Costco. Many items up at least 30%, and others higher (frozen berries, fish, meat, etc). Propane 20lb re-fill from $12 to $17.
Gas is the most obvious but I remember before we got fracking going when it was higher so that's not the one I'm most concerned about. The "sneaky" inflation is the stuff that hasn't been catching my eye right away but now that I'm aware its everywhere. The sneaky inflation is what comes from shrink-flation and the loss of promotions. I go to my local grocery store's ad and what used to be 6-8 pages is now around 4. And then the "specials" are hardly that. Steaks are now hardly ever advertised and $9/lb when they are. Also I noted to cut down on expenses specials are usually only in bulk, for example, those steaks on special are only when you buy 4 of them in a family pack. Cutting down on the shrink-wrap and meat tray expenses, I'm sure.
I see the most obvious and outrageous increase in prices at the grocery store, gas pump and restaurants. The high cost of food at grocery stores has replaced our previous enjoyment at restaurants. The high cost of gas for our cars makes it impossible for us to go on long drive for a vacation as well as to afford the inflationary cost for a hotel/motel.
We are stuck in gratitude for having a home that we can afford to maintain, with utilities, and food to eat.
Propane is more volatile than nat gas and crude. My shopping trip is heavily weighted with 🐟 🐓 🥩 and 🍳. So that probably explains the main culprits. Although the eggs are still priced as they were 6 months ago. I expect as the ags rise with the pending commodity boom, the chicken feed will increase and the egg prices will rise with everything else. Widespread draught conditions throughout the upper Midwest already inflated meat prices. With the hay yield less than 50% of the average, there are fees shortages for cattle, causing farmers to send more of their herd to slaughter in the fall than normal so they aren’t short of feed for their herds… just wait for the spring time, we should see a meaningful shortage of beef in particular as farmers refocus on calving and replenishing the normal herd sizes. And that’s just ONE input driving this particular situation.
Here in Spartanburg, SC gasoline (87 reg) was $1.599 a gallon on 20 Jan 20, today 12 Nov 21 it is $3.299 a gallon.
San Francisco bay area - last year premium gas was around $4 /gallon, just paid $5.35, have seen it close to $5.60. My 17 gallon tank is $90 to fill every week.
Alameda county sales tax rate is 10.75%, they are trying to raise it to 11.25%
Inflation has hit almost everything in the PNW. Groceries are up about 20-25percent over last year at WinCo. Local government is holding town hall discussions on prioritizing spending the 2 tranches of Fed$. We are screwed financially 💸💸
beef and bacon up 50% this year. large kitchen appliances (if you can find them) up about 30%. certain car parts (if you can find them) have doubled
Just bought 10# of dry aged prime cowboy steaks (rib) for $50 a pound. Last year it was in the high $20's. Not exactly a middle and lower class problem.
I go eat chicken wings once a week at my favorite TGIF in Prague, Czech Republic. Until the pandemic onset in March 2020, I paid 395 CZK (about $18) for 12 wings, and a Czech beer.
I now pay 590 CZK (~$27), 18 months later. Restaurants.
Beginning of the year I was driving a twin turbo Ford Flex that I loved. 16 Gallon tank cost about $30 to fill and it averaged about 20 miles mixed driving. I just sold it for a 10 year old Prius. 10 Gallon tank cost me a little over $30 to fill. LGB.
Ribeye was $8 per lb. Now it is fluctuating between $12 and $16. I am on a carnivore diet to deal with severe food allergies. Pasta and kale is not a viable alternative.
So far the socialists have given me a tremendous reduction in the standard of living and an almost 100% increase in cost of the goods I use.
I had an ALCAT test to pin down my food allergies, very eye opening
Homeowners (Chubb) increased by 45% (FL); co-insurance on one prescription drug jumped 30% from October to November.
I'm on budget plans with NIPSCO and Indiana Michigan Power. NIPSCO monthly went from $78 to $105 and Indiana Michigan Power from $105 to $157.
Property taxes were raised 40%+ across the entirety of St. Joseph county Indiana. We've gone from eating meat 4-6 times a week for dinner to once a week and no produce or veggies that are out of season.
There'll be nothing cool or fun for kids for Christmas, just blankets, much needed tires, or clothes for that second or third job.
Oh, and side note, I'm vaccinated but don't think it's a good idea to submit to allowing the government to dictate that medical papers are required in order to make a living. My DoD contractor employer has indicated I'll be punished (they haven't been specific in the punishment, we encouraged to fret over it) December 8th (not Jan 4).
As I'm a single parent, this year has been bewilderingly stressful and soon to be soul crushing. If I wanted to raise my kids in Ceausecu's Romania and have the government and my employer involved in my bodily functions, I would have moved there.
How did this happen, and how did it happen so quickly??
Everything is going up double-digits but the biggest impact is in home related expenses. Home insurance has increased from $550 to $1100 per year. Property taxes increased $900 this year alone. Both are caused by a meteoric rise in home values. I obviously must pay taxes but I will no longer buy home insurance. I own a 17 year-old car that I bought new for $17K. An equivalent replacement today costs over $35K plus a few thousand dealer mark up. I planned on buying a new car but gave up. Will keep fixing my old car instead. Health care costs are reaching insane levels. I needed a root-canal but didn't want to spend $1500 out of pocket (I do have insurance). Got an extraction instead. Food and gas prices are of course a problem, too, but lesser impact compared to the big ticket items listed above.
The inflation is in the stock market, Real Estate and Crypto markets. The middle class is getting hammered by everything out here in California. The fact that the dollar hasn’t become unglued with interest rates where they are is a testament to how screwed up the rest of the world is and the fact that we are testing the limits of debt creation and reserve currency status. I feel like I’m playing Musical chairs with the exits guarded by men with big machine guns. You are forced to play the markets in a kind of asset class that could conceivably go tits up at a moments notice. Love listening to the podcasts and have made good Money on stock ideas that you have made since I’ve become a member 3 months ago. As a recovering Alcoholic I will pass on the three drink minimum though. Thanks again.
My favorite value level potato chips were 1.12/bag up until 2 weeks ago, now they are 1.49/bag.
Doctors at hospitals bill insurance companies for dropping by on rounds to see patients. They will spend an average of 9 minutes in conversation, bill out for 45 minutes, then have their requested rate of $495/hour be paid by insurer or medicare at $300/hour with no verification of actual time spent (I was patient recently). Even with 6 minute average travel time between patients they make $1200/hour net! Wish I could make that routinely. Wonder why premiums are high?
Dollar Tree stores took advantage of hard up unemployed during pandemic to hire at $10/hour gross (before deductions & transportation, $8/hr net). Since you can not live on that part of their workforce has moved on & stores cut hours by 25% due to labor shortage. Products within stores have generally gotten smaller size. Good buy used to be 8 pecan swirls in pack for $1, now 6 in pack, each 3% smaller. -Charlie N
Excerpts from Dollar Tree Ceo Interview (thanks to Investech Research) ABOUT TO BECOME the "$2 DOLLAR TREE"
“Raising prices on items that were previously $1 is not likely to be welcomed and it may, at least initially, cause some customer dissatisfaction. However, Dollar Tree needs to take this step as its fixed price point model cannot work in a high inflation environment where costs are rising dramatically.”
“Freight costs have reached unprecedented levels as a result of increased demand, limited capacity, and shipping delays. For context, 3 months ago, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, which reflects spot rates on ocean freight from China, was already at an all-time high, up more than 280% year-over-year and more than 400% since 2019. These rates have continued to rise and have increased more than 20% since we last reported on May 27.”
Dollar Tree (DLTR)
You can definitely see from these comments that if you provide a service as a business, you may be going out of business in 2 years because of this inflation. Everyone is cutting off pest control services, which I also did in August, 2021 and now I am about to cut off my pool service which is $160 per month. These poor business owners, the business environment is changing so fast!
March 2020-People cancel pool service because they are laid off for Covid outbreak.
March 2021- People want pool service back, but too many new customers and now Pool Company cannot get workers. 2 pool companies tell me they cannot take any new customers. I find one that charges a little more at $160 per month.
Nov 2021- I cancel my pool service due to increasing inflation in all other bills.
March 2022- ?? Maybe a lot of people cannot afford to keep pool service as inflation continues which results in too many pool company employees and they have to lay someone off?
How can you manage a business in this type of environment? People have to consume food and energy, so the relief valve is dropping your "services" to save your budget. If you run a "service" business, good luck friend, this is going to be a very difficult decade as people cancel lawn service, pest control service, pool service, home monitoring service, etc.
I have means so nothing has changed my behavior. But, I buy ribs to smoke at Costco. Have for years. ALWAYS a vacuum sealed 3 pack. This week they started breaking them and repackaging in a 2 pack due to price.
For us it's been mainly the costs of fuel and food. We're a rural, working poor family of five. The kids are in their teens. I have a 30-mile-plus round trip for work each night. We can't afford a newer, more fuel-efficient vehicle, so my fuel costs for work are now between $60 and $80 per week (a year ago they would have been about half of that). Family trips to town for anything other than essentials have become few and far between. Our son is starting to look at college and I'm trying to set aside some funds for the inevitable trips to various campus tours and exams and other expenses, but with our car on its last legs, I really hope I can get him situated with his further education before it's all gone to get another clunker since there's no way in hell we would risk making payments on something as risky as a car.
With inflation on the rice, someone asked the obvious question: are people using more credit to buy necessities? Open revolving credit should be up YoY, no? For example, most “middle” class to low middle class people don’t really understand credit cost. To them it’s all about servicing a monthly debt. No matter that the dinner they paid for today at $50 will cost them double because of interest on a high balance credit card. Thoughts?
My wife and I are both retired and in our mid 70s. Split out time between Southern California and rural Idaho. Food prices in CA are outrageous, but in Idaho not so much.. except for the better cuts of beef and pork back ribs. Fuel is outrageous in both places. As an example, in January 2020 I was paying about $2.20 per gallon for diesel in Idaho and right now it is over $4/gallon up here. Last summer residential propane delivered was less than $1/gallon and this year the best price I could find was $1.449/gallon to fill up a 1000 gallon tank. That's what happens when America is no longer "energy independent" and at the mercy of OPEC for energy, thanks to Joe and the Ho.
I buy grassfed/pasture raised beef and pork from a local farmer in the upper midwest. This is what he told me a few months ago: "This year our grain prices have increased 40%, our processing costs have increased 40%, hay prices have increased 200%, and the cost of piglets has increased 100%. We're losing money selling meat right now, and we don't want to increase the CSA prices and so we're trying to figure out what to do about it." We did not see a drought in our area but most of the local hay harvest was sent out west.
Just renewed my natural gas contract at 69 cents per therm for a 24 month contract. It was 51 cents previously. Essentially 25% higher. Luckily I had replaced my traditional gas water heater with a tankless model, and I only use 2 - 3 therms per month from April to October. Winter heating bill is definitely going higher.
Food, My wife cannot believe how much it costs, and we live and eat very modestly. Gasoline and heating oil. Electric. Here in PA, the state that exports the most electric. My 12 month contract expired at .0708, entered into a new contract with another company. Another contract at 12 months was .0788 per KWh. I took a 4 year contract for .0999 because I am betting it will go much higher shortly. Can't get parts, let along paying an increased price. Car/truck parts, tractor parts, you just can't find stuff. Tires, some tires are hard to impossible to find. My shop tells me the manufactures (mostly in China) have stopped making some sizes and models and just making a few models and most popular sizes, just like the ammo manufactures did.The frigging post office was closed on Sat because they cant get people to work. A eatery can't get 5 gallon containers of ice cream because the manufacture cannot locate the metal ring that seals the lid. This thing is falling apart and we are ALL going down with the ship. Where are the people that use to work? Where did they go and how are they paying their bills?
Rib Eye Steaks at Costco in 2020 = 8.99 a lb. Last week, now = 19.99 a lb., Toilet paper and paper towels at costco more expensive, and there are now less sheets on each roll by 20% then last year. Gas in CA averages 4.60 a gallon, all produce has increased by 30% minimum.
Food, fuel, rental and real estate prices, building materials
Gas and food prices have limited food choices and movement. I try to coast my way home from grocery store on gas fumes; It really annoys folks behind me. I am 73 and thinking I need an electric tri-cycle, but can't afford it. Besides if gas prices stay up, electricity prices are bound to take off as well. I live in Florida; may have to spend summers sitting in a cheap plastic kiddie pool to keep from overheating. Can't believe we were finally energy-independent under President Trump, and less than a year later, we are in a fuel crisis.
While I cannot reply regarding price increases, I do believe it is important
to look at your possessions (home, car, etc) and determine what kind of
repairs will be needed in the future.
DO THEM NOW <-----
I try to front run problems.
New metal roof on the house, BEFORE it needed it.
New water well, BEFORE we needed it.
Move your assets into material items that address maintenance.
Yes, we're seeing prices increase, but finding someone to perform
labor (like roofing) is a long lead item.
I have a metal building that needed 4 new fiberglass skylights (3x12ft)
They were 26 years old and quoted at $300 each with 4 month
delivery. I contacted the president of the company that built my
shop and the dear man gave me 4 for free, so I bought 4 more
at $50 each, rented a truck, and took a 5 hour round trip to pick
them up, for a total of $400. Labor to install: $1500.
Time to find labor: 6 months.
I fixed this BEFORE they leaked.
Complaints from me: ZERO
Do it NOW, before you can't get material and can't get labor,
and rain shows up on your favorite couch.
The clock it ticking.
Mr. Brown
North Central Florida
Best to ZH friends, and I don't know why they banned me...AGAIN!
There are so many examples that could be mentioned, but this one is the freshest: Great Lakes Christmas Ale sixer was $12 last year. $13 this year. It’s bad that 8% isn’t the worst individual example by any stretch. Also, it makes the 3 drink minimum a little pricier this weekend. But I do it to honor you properly, Chris.
had a garage roof with new sheathing and 60 ft of 2X6 joists costs are lower than during summer but way above what it used to be. I'm Midwest so homes above 300k are not typical. but it's getting there now. so the older homes have gone up and the county is eyeing these prices like a cougar watching a baby deer
Intermediate car rented for the Canadian long weekend at the end of July: 60 per day; intermediate car rented for the most recent Thurs-Sun, 92 per day.
Food up a lot and it's not like you can avoid eating. Heating costs up 50% Gas...Yeah, I'm just selling my car. Well, we're selling the house and going off grid.
Let me give you a Canadian perspective. I can list 100s of items from basic perishable fruits & vegetables to dry groceries and canned food ALL are above 35% price increase so far this year and that is at a low-end grocery store chain. Any item that still has same price, is a lot smaller size on average by 30% - a marketing deception ! Dollar store (Dollarama) barely has anything now priced at a 1$, all starts at $1.25 and most items go to $4 now. It is not a $1 store anymore for over a year ! Gas went from $1.15 to $1.48 a liter on average.
Condo monthly fee went from $245 to $260 starting in Jan 2022.
Bowling league fees increased as much as 18%. I bowl in four leagues and the weekly fees increased as follows: $10 to $11 for Sr. League, $15 to 16 for Sunday, $17 to 20 for Tuesday and $17 to 18 for Friday.
I also see the higher prices for food and gas. Here is a new one my pest control company recently started charging an additional $39.99 per quarterly bug treatment. It all adds up and eventually you have to stop relying on these services and either doing it yourself and do without.
Amazing SOOOO many people talk about recurring pest control treatments with toxic chemicals. What is up with that? Are you completely overrun with bugs so that you would have your family breathe this poison for months on end. Are you crazy?
I went to an upscale seafood restaurant called Pappadeaux about 5 years ago and a great seafood combo platter was $19.95(very yummy). I went to the same restaurant last week and had the same meal but the cost now is $42.50 !!
Because I bought Bitcoin and other cryptos a few years back, I can cash out some of my profits here and there so the inflation is not a big deal to me. Also I'm frugal and drive a dependable 16 year old Toyota and live in a rental 4 plex that only costs me $875 per month and I just signed a year lease so that price can't go up for a while
as a landscaper, i dumped a load of greenwaste today at $60 per ton. one year ago it was $20 per ton, modesto ca area. transporation costs and the fact that there is so much green waste and no useful end product but compost, with requirement to eliminate landfill space is driving this higher and higher.
Buying materials for my farming projects. Putting together a couple of simple, mobile chicken tractors was exorbitant. To raise 100 birds in a closed coop cost me roughly $4 per bird in materials! Going to have to raise birds in them a few times to try and make it back.
On a retirement property development project in Montana, last summer I experienced 2x4stud going from 7$ per to 18$ per.
1/2 inch 4x8;OSB increased from 17$ per sheet to 50$ per.
I shut down the job to regroup for next summer.
I line in San Jose, CA. Prices in everything are up across the board. Local government and municipalities are killing the average person with additional special assessments to pay for things like water improvement projects. I’m not opposed to this of course, but voters don’t seem to care they are enabling our elected officials to keep pinching our wallets. We are now at $5.00 a gallon for regular. I quart of Strauss Yogurt was selling for $9.89 at Lucky’s.
I bought a package of Oscar Mayer bacon for 10.99. Saw it a little cheaper today for 9.89. Use to be under 6 bucks. Was redecorating my house but at half done I’ve given up. Paint and supplies are outrageous. 75.00 for a gallon of Benjamin Moore paint and Sherwin Williams is about the same.
I am buying the cheap toilet paper at the dollar store, now that a package of 9 rolls is $15 at my grocery store. Buying a bit less beef and more eggs and fish.