As almost everybody knows by now, Elon Musk has offered to buy Twitter for $54.20 per share, per a 13D filing out this morning.
Musk wrote the following letter to Twitter’s board:
Chairman of the Board,I invested in Twitter as I believe in its potential to be the platform for free speech around the globe, and I believe free speech is a societal imperative for a functioning democracy. However, since making my investment I now realize the company will neither thrive nor serve this societal imperative in its current form. Twitter needs to be transformed as a private company.As a result, I am offering to buy 100% of Twitter for $54.20 per share in cash, a 54% premium over the day before I began investing in Twitter and a 38% premium over the day before my investment was publicly announced. My offer is my best and final offer and if it is not accepted, I would need to reconsider my position as a shareholder.Twitter has extraordinary potential. I will unlock it.-Elon Musk
Chairman of the Board,
I invested in Twitter as I believe in its potential to be the platform for free speech around the globe, and I believe free speech is a societal imperative for a functioning democracy.
However, since making my investment I now realize the company will neither thrive nor serve this societal imperative in its current form. Twitter needs to be transformed as a private company.
As a result, I am offering to buy 100% of Twitter for $54.20 per share in cash, a 54% premium over the day before I began investing in Twitter and a 38% premium over the day before my investment was publicly announced. My offer is my best and final offer and if it is not accepted, I would need to reconsider my position as a shareholder.
Twitter has extraordinary potential. I will unlock it.
I’m conflicted in how I feel about it. As a long-term, on-again, off-again Twitter shareholder (and current weekly call holder), I’m ecstatic to be ringing the register on an investment in the company which has been run by imbeciles for the better part of the last decade.
As far as my Twitter account and its 200,000 followers go, I’m less thrilled. I’ve been a strident critic of Musk’s for years now and part of me can’t help but think that Musk owning the platform would be a convenient way to silence his - and Tesla’s - critics.
I’m hopeful that Musk’s bluster about free speech is actually how he feels and that he isn’t just advocating for it when it suits him, which appears to be why he switched political sides to begin with in 2020 (when “fascists” shut down his Fremont plant and he needed to make production numbers).
I’m also amused, knowing that dozens of snowflake employees in San Francisco who have been lovingly caressed by revolving door of idiot CEOs that have not been held accountable for operating the business terrible, are likely in the midst of meltdowns.
The question now is what the future will bring for Twitter - and I’d love to hear your thoughts:
What will happen with Musk’s offer? Will the board accept or reject it?
Could the offer be a ploy by Musk to get a board rejection specifically so he can sell his shares and “scalp” a quick profit?
Do you trust that Musk actually has the interests of free speech in mind?
Disclaimer: I am long Twitter TWTR calls. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities. I own or will own all names I mentioned or linked to in this piece. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I get shit wrong a lot.
Weather report in the San Francisco area: Severe melting snowflakes warning, take appropriate cautionary measures
If you are a person who actually cares about free speech over your personal followers/marketing/promotion... you would have stopped using it long ago.
It ultimately doesn’t matter what he wants it for, (other then an enjoyable theoretical discussion on here), they will never let him have it. This is going to be one of those moments when some of us get a glimpse that certain businesses and institutions are nothing more then extensions of political parties. Like you sometimes do at election time when you see who reports on what. They’ll be a veneer of some “legitimate shareholder and regulatory concerns” , but it’ll be blocked from ever even coming to a vote or any other ultimate approval. This isn’t some company selling widgets, they tell people how and what to think. He won’t be allowed to take that away.
I think it's a fake out -- a complete setup and lie. Musk isn't gonna fundamentally change a damn thing. They're trying to put lipstick on the Twitter pig. You guys go ahead and believe that Twitter is going to ever be anything beyond a cesspool of establishment propaganda, woke commie lunacy, and a place to publicly shame and record people for saying unapproved things.
I won't. Never had it, never will. Just say no. Not even once. Twitter is and always will be shit that intends to further the agendas of garbage people.
If he is true to his word on free speech then this has got to be an awesome thing, but if it is just going to be a billionaire's new toy, and/or one where he can censor views that differ to his own then it is a VERY bad thing, although no different to how Facebook already is.
You, and most others, are focused on the wrong thing. Musk is flawed - as am I, as am you - but the overreactions to those flaws clouds the judgement of the truths he tells. He's one of the only people on the planet with enough money to literally say whatever he wants and fortunately, many times he broadcasts the truth we all keep to ourselves out of fear. Separate the man from the message and reread much of what he's posted over the years and you'll find a lot of positions that rational people can rally behind, hopefully a revamp of Twitter is one of them..
Love how Elon exposed how shitty he thinks their leadership team is and their inability to execute on a great product and service. I agree! I worked at Twitter for a blip and was dumbfounded at how poorly It was run compared to Google.
doesn't matter. they are going to reject the offer. these are commies we're dealing with here. they don't JUST don't care about money, they also care about absolute control over narrative. Narrative is most important to them.
Yes but snowflakes turn to slush and finally end up in the drain.....I like this move so much I don't care if its all for a quick profit or even if it is to further Musk's own interests: the end result can't be any less flatulently irritating than the current menu.
Answers to the exam:
1. The Board will reject it and Musk, despite what he says, will up his offer (they always say its a "final" offer). I think he is genuine about it as a serious investment with huge potential.
2. He doesn't need to scalp.
3. No he won't be entirely unbiased if he owns Twitter (what board is ever against its own
interests think Conrad Black, Washington Post, Economist etc etc)but it will be so much better
than what we had previously. Oliver.
I have no dog in the Tesla fight. Anything that gets rid of Twitter’s blatant political censorship is good for shareholders.
Elon talks a good game on free speech, but he’s the richest man in the world and that’s only been possible because of government intervention, so I have my doubts.
On the plus side, Elon was a major reason that Amazon caved and eventually published Alex Berenson’s Unreported Truths series in 2020, so I owe him for that.
Separately, it was good to see Substack come out and say that offended Twitter employees shouldn’t come work for them. I don’t know how much of an issue that actually was, but I like to see Substack reaffirming their commitment to free speech.
I'm not on Twitter anymore. It's a cesspool that gives 'fuck all' about free speech and free discourse. The best outcome IMO is if Elon ends up owning the whole thing and restores free speech to a large corner of the public square. Maybe people could wake up to this 'vaccine' BS if they were allowed to see other opinions on the nit-twit.
Im 50/50 on this. My immediate reaction was positive, get TWTR out the hands of these woke totalitarians. On the other hand I’m mindful of “meet the new boss , same as the old boss”, and as brilliant as he is, I have had no faith in his transparency and stewardship of TSLA
awesome.. there is hope yet... I hope he can break the totaitarian woke mob
If Elon is simply a front man for multiple DARPA projects which directly threaten US security [Starlink, Neuralink, autonomous cars that only run with a high enough social credit score, North Korea missile guidance technology transfer etc] then it's entirely possible someone made him an offer he couldn't refuse. Nothing would surprise me.
This is going to be good no matter what... for the following reasons:
1) Musk is all about being the center of attention, not really about free speech. In that sense he is like Trump, and he knows exactly how to manipulate people to keep him the center of attention.
2) He is getting a brilliant two-fer... He is trolling the corporate crowd who really do not care about all of the woke issues... they just know the woke issues keep their customers angry and afraid... and thus engaged in the platform... They now have to worry about a shareholders' lawsuit when they pass on what is, right now, a 25% premium to the current share price. At the same time he is trolling the woke snowflake crowd...
3) So consider the following possibilities:
a) Twitter refuses and gets sued by a class of shareholders... Result: Musk is in the news and in the heads of the woke crowd; or
b) Twitter accepts and the woke go bat shit crazy and free speech advocates worry... Result: Musk is in the news and in the heads of the free speech crowd
His threat to sell is a side show... The question is whether a shareholders' lawsuit, or the bat shit woke crowd keep Musk in the news.
If he actually buys Twitter, I do not think he actually censors criticism of Tesla... I think he talks like he might just to keep the free speech crowd a little on edge... and talking about him.
Side note: The business model of Big Tech is the monetization of the discovery of knowledge about what makes us angry and afraid. See this for a bit of a technical explanation: https://www.thomaspaines.blog/p/how-media-outlets-are-using-tech
Overall it’s a positive for me. I left Twitter because of the clamp down on free speech during the Trump years but I still check in on tweets from my fave former follows. I don’t see Elon shutting down his detractors. He’s more the type to argue back from what I can tell. The biggest win for me is to see the snowflakes be forced to provide customer service rather than vindictive enforcement of their obtuse views.
If he takes it private, then there's a real chance for change; but getting his offer accepted is 50-50, at best. I was listening to Timcast IRL while driving the kids to school this morning and the guest, Jason Whitlock, pointed out that Disney bought ESPN in 1996 and then ABC in 2006; and since those purchases, sports have become a lot softer (on defense) in order to make the sports more palatable to a wider (female) audience. The point is, the owner sets the tone, and Disney has changed the culture considerably. I would love Musk to get his offer accepted; and, yes, I do think he's legit in his belief in Free Speech. I don't think changes would be immediate, but over time it would help shift our culture a bit back toward the center. Hopefully.
The reason Musk made the offer is the reason they won't sell. Twitter isn't a profit seeking corporation on a mission to spread truth as a platform for all voices. It is a tool. A weapon. A one-way street for hyper-leftist propaganda designed to APPEAR as a profit seeking, truth spreading corporation. It is not, and his offer is not even being considered. What is being considered is how to respond in a way that maintains appearances, despite proving beyond all doubt that they are not, in fact, what they claim to be.
They will reject his offer.
I believe his main goal is to take quick profit by announcing to take twitter private (why there is feeling that we have we seen this before...Tesla)
It's a pump-and-dump + search engine optimization play. Free earned media from the offer that he knows won't be accepted, and then he dumps shares at a juicy profit after being rejected.
I’m not smart enough to know if it’s good or bad....my personal feeling is he’s more slippery than a bar of soap in the jail showers....let the comedy show keep rolling!!!
I think that Musk, if he even manages to get hold of Twitter, will "surely" deliver "free speech" -- for the good of society -- the day after he finally delivers "full self driving" mode and perhaps the cyber truck. I mean, it's not like he has a history of broken promises stretched out over years or anything like that, right?
Mars. If there's an ultimate level of drive to this man, it's Mars. If leaving earth to avoid the mass extinction event of the future involves twitter, then he'll strive to attain it. I'm down for Twitter going free speech, but like capitalism, free speech needs a bit of regulation (I mean, super small amount, as much as I hate to say it). Users need to be adults and be responsible for...but I digress. Maybe he wants to spend Tesla's money on a personal crusade? Ah, whatevs, Im for it, if not for the fun 'Elon VS Media'
What evidence in Musk's history says he might even consider silencing critics?
The negative evidence you site is your own convoluted fears.
The positive evidence you site is your personal windfall as a good thing.
I have seen other me-elitist and you-not in your writings ...
thanks for this post that proved it.
Free speech is a democratic ideal that serves our representative democracy not true democracy can one honestly say our form of democracy truly serves the people
Brilliant move & frankly the board have no choice if they are to fulfil their duty to shareholders. Worth every penny just to be shut of the pathetic censors of woke currently in charge.
please... it's another financial shenanigan. that's all this guy does. he makes bombastic statements that drastically elevate price of stocks and other assets, then retracts the statement after realizing his profits. he's a government stooge, helping other elite scumbags get rich. how's that for free speech?
Most everyone is missing the point. This fight was over before it began.
Twitter is controlling a message that Elon doesn’t agree with. He has options most people don’t to make change (one way or another), while he makes money off the adventure.
1. Make an offer the board will refuse, with the threat of dumping his shares if they don’t accept.
2. Board refuses - and does something to limit the potential buyout.
3. Now, they’ve played into his hands. He can either:
A. Threaten lawsuits about fiduciary responsibility, and weaken the platform. (Stock drops)
B. Sell his stake, after buying some protection. (Making loads of money)
C. They eventually sell, at a lower price. (Lawsuits weaken the brand, potentially killing it)
D. They try to sell to another suitor they like. (Which brings on lawsuits and weakens the company)
This became a no-lose situation very quickly for Elon. Either he pushes the platform to be “free speech” or they become weakened in fending off lawsuits with being a public company. Either way he will make bank at their expense. How will Twitter attack him in the future if they fend him off without getting into trouble? They can’t. Management backed themselves into a corner it will be very difficult to get out of - they’re only hope right now is another billionaire that likes the platform who is willing to lose a lot of money to support it. I’m betting there aren’t many.
I think people are mistaken about Elon Musk. Elon Musk is a government man. The "Richest Man on Earth" wouldn't exist without the vast amounts of American Taxpayer Money (Billions? Trillions?), he receives from all those government contracts. Kind of gives you pause, when you think who the "Richest Man on Earth" reports to, and what they must be like.
The Wall Street Journal pointed out that "Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal and his company Kingdom Holding, which have held big stakes in Twitter, dismissed Elon Musk’s offer to buy the social-media platform." Why? Elon Musk is no rogue billionaire. That would be George Soros, and George is no fan of free speech, freedom of expression, a free press, and democracy in particular. But neither is Elon Musk. Elon Musk isn't even a "maverick" as some claim. No, Elon Musk is a government man.
Supposing Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter is just the US government expressing their displeasure with the Saudis siding with Russia, and the Saudis refusal to offset the loss of sanctioned Russian oil exports by pumping more of their oil.
For the Saudis, in all likelihood, this is more about resources than politics. The Saudis just don't have the oil anymore. Supposing Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter is just sanctioning through other means.
I am less confident that Musk will succeed. One thing for sure is the left is admitting that Twitter is not a fair and balanced platform where ideas from both sides can be debated. They are admitting that it is a controlled platform where the liberals control the narrative and they will do most anything to keep it that way. That is why I am not on Twitter.
I left Twitter four years ago after being shadow banned and made invisible by the woke cowards who run that Leftist echo chamber. I returned today for the first time to find that I still have 20,000 from the 57,000 that I left behind. If Elon wins, I shall return…not one second earlier.
Its entertaining to see people melt down over this compared to the crickets when Bezos bought the Washington Post. That said I’m a skeptic and think this is bluster. He’ll be happy to blame the regulators or Twitter board when this deal doesn’t get done.
Let’s be honest, it won’t go through because the government will not let a huge social media platform go private. I do think that the current management team lean more left and only censor what they do not agree with. Unfortunately, there is no such thing as freedom of speech online. Moral of the story is that others have the right to offend me if I do not agree with them but I do not have the right to offend them if they do not agree with me. It’s pretty fucking crazy if you ask me.
(1) The reject his offer (already done); (2) they will attempt to implement a poison pill (already “leaked” board considering; (3) if 2 is successful, watch for big lawsuits from shareholders (Elon included); (4) they will attempt to “green-mail” him, which will be unsuccessful because it isn’t about money; (5) he will ultimately succeed, just like hostile takeovers of yore when takeover titans roamed the planet. If there was ever a POS high-tech public company in serious need of a top to bottom overhaul, it is twatter. (6) in the end, it really is about a quasi-public accommodation communications company not being allowed to censor. No different that T, TMUS, VZN, etc. They can’t censor you phone calls, your emails. The landscape of the notion of public accommodation of communications has shifted. Elon understands that, many of us plebes understand this. The woke mob does not and are about to get a lesson in Civics 101 and public accommodation law.
I think it is the dumbest thing ever.....
If I had 54 billion dollars and all I could think to buy was twitter, I'd just as soon give 95% away and go fishing.
What a joke, by a dope.
I would love to comment on this on twitter, but my 4th account has been permanently suspended for political opinion. I'm ecstatic about the take-over, and I hope he pulls it off. I agree with Elon, the censorship and suspension of accounts on twitter increases social unrest, unhappiness, frustration and destroys the illusion of democracy. The British government's lies and propaganda on the platform are truly sickening. The truth is being withheld from the public by twitter in collaboration with governments and whoever else twitter serves.
They should sell it to Trump and merge it with his platform. :)
I love the move. I think he truly believes in free speech having seen what not free speech did. He’s a COVID critic and those views were silenced. But, as I wrote today on my substack, the core reason in my opinion is the over valuation of Tesla which you (the Raven) have pointed to. If you believe $420 a share ($83 spilt adjusted) is the right number, that’s 90% below today. He has $170 billion in Tesla. How do you sell without causing a valuation panic and reload in an enterprise worth 3-5x if Meta and CNN die? Twitter.
I love the move. The question is- will the world let him … and if he sells $40 billion of Tesla stock anyway, I don’t think he cares.
I'm just watching a virtual political townhall in Canada. The comment was made that Vanguard just purchased about 10% of Twitter. Also, the US DOJ is just now investigating Musks companies. Given this backlash, I think Musk is genuinely wanting to purchase twitter to enable free speech. I also thought I saw a report that his bid was blocked by Saudi Arabia?
"Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured." Why this jerk isn't in jail (yet) is beyond me. I have way OOTM puts on $TSLA, just for shits and giggles. No $TSLA isn't worth as much as every other f'ing car maker in the world. Posting for a friend/
The leftist journalists have their hair on fire over losing control of the Twitter platform. Musk will gain control and he will take them private. I don’t use any social media platforms and don’t own any stock in social media companies. This is much bigger than Bezos buying WaPo. There will be focus on bipartisan stories, no longer suppressing stories of Hunter Biden or problems at the border. Equal analysis of liberal sins will be world changing. Most people outside the beltway are not pleased with the current administration. If you think I am wrong check back after the midterm elections and the majority in Congress has changed hands. We stumbled out of Afghanistan being the worst ally possible. We are too little too late in Ukraine again being the worst ally possible.
The powers that be won't let it happen.
Sorry qouth for clogging up the airways I’m a bit computer slow
Sorry George I thought u replied to me and wanted to respond....I suck at computers and Was trying to give you love for commenting but Jonesy is the real winner!!!!
fair value is $69- won't accept a penny less
$TSLA is such a government company that I'd imagine that even the defense companies are jealous of how much he gets.
You're talking about a company that makes, among other things:
- electric cars
- starlink (satellite internet)
Elon's wealth was accumulated through the collective of hedge funds and speculators, many of which rigged the stock with OTM calls. (this is probably a gross simplification but bear with me)
So with all this going on, he starts selling stock and decides to buy the social media platform. Maybe it's genuine - maybe he really does want to take it, open it up for people (maybe with the exception of Montana Skeptic et al). Maybe the feds start horse trading with him that he can do it but certain things have to stay in place; maybe the feds don't even acknowledge him and keep doing the crap they're doing anyways.
Personally I think it's great on paper that he's doing this, like many said, the company is poorly run and politicized all to hell "tO pRoTeCt dEmOcRaCy". So here are my answers:
- Barring a counter-offer from Blackrock (why not, they're running the country right now) they'll be forced to accept the offer
- I don't think it's a ploy, but he'll probably make $$ off of it regardless, which will inflame the usual midwit crowd
- Ultimately it probably won't be his call so much as it will be the feds we don't see behind the scenes that are really running things, but will be forced to give him enough concessions to make it look like he did something
Hard to tell since Musk has never owned such a platform. I don't think Twitter can be worse than it is now. But is Musk his own person or does he have people telling him what to do? that's the question.
Musk is a modern day PT Barnum. All he cares about is his net worth and keeping the suckers engaged.