This page will have updated headlines on the Russia/Ukraine crisis and live discussion.
It’s been a week since I first held a “Will Russia Invade Ukraine” forum. Given the new developments and heading into a market holiday, I wanted to recap and put the question back out there for discussion. We’ll also get our first taste of how markets might feel, when futures open in just minutes.
As a courtesy, even to my free subscribers - I wanted to offer up the latest headlines from the weekend so far, as of 5:15pm EST, for discussion.
I will be updating this document with headlines the second they come in, so refresh this page occasionally if you’d like to stay up to date.
If you enjoy the dialogue, are not a Fringe Finance subscriber and would like to become one, you can get 22% off for life by using this link.
Updates:
2/21/2022 | 1:32PM EST: Reports in Ukraine's local media that the country is set to impose martial law - via @spectatorindex
1:09PM EST: Putin just told Macron and Scholz he's going to sign a decree recognizing the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, per a Kremlin readout of their call, per @maxseddon
10:01AM: Most Russian stock exchanges are down over 10% as Putin says there’s “no prospects” for peace plan to end Ukraine conflict.
9:33AM: RUSSIA'S HEAD OF FEDERAL SECURITY SERVICE (FSB) BORTNIKOV TELLS PUTIN THAT SECURITY SITUATION IN TWO UKRAINIAN BREAKAWAY REPUBLICS IS DETERIORATING
8:01AM EST: RUSSIA SAYS KILLED FIVE PEOPLE WHO TRIED TO VIOLATE BORDER: IFX
RUSSIAN MILITARY OFFICIALS SAY UKRAINIAN ARMED VEHICLES WERE DESTROYED IN RUSSIA'S ROSTOV REGION - IFAX
UKRAINIAN MILITARY SAY UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE NOT PRESENT IN RUSSIA'S ROSTOV REGION
7:25AM EST: The Donetsk People's Republic requests Russian military assistance against what it calls Ukrainian attack - Spectator Index
Kremlin says there are "no concrete plans yet" to hold the summit - Zerohedge
Putin convenes urgent meeting of Russia's Security Council, topic not disclosed - BNO
Russia’s MOEX stock market down between 7% and 9% in Monday trading - sources
2/20/2022 | 8:55PM EST: White House says Biden accepted a meeting with Putin “in principle,” which could take place after Blinken and Lavrov meet this week and if no invasion of Ukraine has occurred — cnbc.com
8:22PM EST: Howard Fineman (@howardfineman) tweets: “David Martin of @CBSNews, a superb reporter I’ve known for decades and worked with at the original Newsweek for many years—and whom I trust totally—says #Putin has just ordered #Russian forces to invade #Ukraine in its entirety, with reserve units following to run an occupation.”
8:00PM EST: Biden and Putin agree to meeting organized by Macron, to be held if Russia does not invade Ukraine - Spectator Index
7:35PM EST: French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke for an hour on Sunday evening in their second talk of the day: AFP
Ukraine’s Defense Minister: Russia has not yet formed any assault groups in regions bordering Ukraine. Invasion is not going to happen “today or tomorrow” (source)
5:20PM EST: Explosion Heard In Centre Of Rebel-held City Of Donetsk In Eastern Ukraine - Reuters Witness
On the hawkish side:
President Biden looks like he skipped a planned trip to Delaware tonight to “hold a national security council meeting”.
“The President had a family-related issue that was going to take him to Wilmington, DE tonight but he will no longer be going and will remain in Washington, DC tonight," the White House said.
CNN - part of the mainstream media cabal that has been warning about an “imminent” attack for weeks, has reported that “the US has intelligence indicating that orders have been sent to Russian commanders to proceed with an attack on Ukraine”.
Speaking of said cabal, The New York Times has also reported that the US intelligence community was made aware last week that Russia had given the order to move ahead with an invasion of Ukraine, per the Spectator Index.
The U.S. has also issued warnings about terror threats in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and areas near Ukraine, urging Americans to try and find a way out of Russia.
US intelligence has suggested that Russia will likely target Kyiv, Odessa, Kharkiv, and Kherson, according to News This Second.
Russia has roughly 150,000 troops, warplanes and equipment on Ukraine's border, the same sources, News This Second, reports. Other estimates by the US government suggests that between 169,000 and 190,000 troops are stationed, per the BBC.
Swiss Air and Lufthansa have both cancelled flights to and from Ukraine's capital and Odessa, effective immediately, per BNO News.
Russian military drills in Belarus, which were due to end today, have been extended, the Belarusian defense ministry says - BNO News, citing Reuters.
“Russia's Aeronautical Information Center issued a NOTAM (a Notice to Airmen) on Sunday which will close most of the airspace over the Sea of Azov starting at midnight between Sunday and Monday,” reports the Jerusalem Post.
Evidence suggests Russia is planning "the biggest war in Europe since 1945", Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said to the BBC.
On the dovish side
Russia’s Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov says “there [are] no such plans” to invade Ukraine on Sunday. Video of him on CBS can be seen here.
The same ambassador said early on Sunday: “Moscow is not trying to occupy the territory of any foreign country and considers Donbas a part of Ukraine”.
“There is no Russian invasion of Ukraine and our forces are inside our territory and do not pose a threat to anyone,” he said.
Putin tells Macron plans to withdraw troops from Belarus: French presidency - AFP (note that later headline said they did not withdraw troops)
Boris Johnson said Sunday: “Putin must back down from threats and remove soldiers from Ukraine’s border” - BBG
The U.S. is still claiming that Russia “might” attack “various cities in Ukraine”, via Bloomberg at about 4PM EST. These headlines still seem to be rising to a fever pitch, yet there has been no confirmed invasion yet.
Putin, Macron and have agreed to hold trilateral talks to try and de-escalate the situation.
The Sun published a great graphic showing why the military drills in Belarus are relevant, for those unaware of the geography of the situation.
As for me, I have just one question:
Me, waiting to find out whether or not Russia is going to attack Ukraine
I’m always interested to hear from my readers:
Heading into Monday, with about 36 hours to go until the markets open, what do you think the key headlines on President’s Day will be?
How do you think the market will react if an invasion is confirmed? Any chance we sold off on the rumors and people could buy the actual event at this point?
At this point, does Putin withdraw, invade, or do we get yet another week of nothing happening?
Why should the US, a country that doesn't believe in borders, even care about a distant non-strategic (to US) country protecting its borders? Why not apply the US rule ... the first 2-3 million Russians crossing the border get benefits etc just as in the US?
And distribute them around the country on free flights and bus rides. What’s the Russian Version of La Raza? I mean they were there first if you think about it…only thing that can stop the Russians now is if we arm the Ukrainians with the deadly horse whip (reins) weapon.
Now, if an invasion were to take place, what stops Russia and China from destroying USA military satellite systems en masse? I don’t think I need to elaborate on what that would accomplish.
Sanctions will be meaningless and entirely unenforceable as a result of such a move. They control time synchronization for the entire planet, most notably for international banking transactions.
I'm a professional macro trader of some 35 years experience (yes, I started in 1987). While that means shit, I feel I have some understanding of game theory. Putin wants to protect the borders of Russia (I am no Putin fan by the way). Nordstream 2 has been blighted by the US at every opportunity (its Putins/Russias way of avoiding conflict with Ukraine by having an alternative point of both domestic economic gain and leverage on Europe - personally I believe understanding this is key to understanding what Putin is doing. If the west gives Putin a NO NATO guarantee on Ukraine (unlikely) then it devolves to Nordstream 2. If its a no go on that front (which at this point also seems likely) then a Ukraine incursion (in a limited fashion, possibly to re-impose a pro Russian Govt. is almost inevitable). Putin is a strong man, he cant back down from this without some sort of 'victory'. Lets not kid ourselves however, this whole thing is a sideshow to the reality of the main macro backdrop.............
Wake my a$$ up when there’s Russian crossing the border… or when the Mainstream State Media provides PROOF of this Imminent attack 🥱
US dumba$$ just trying to get the sheeple to forget about the record breaking inflation… bread & circus, with a side order of fear porn… the American way 🤦♂️
Well .. arms sales. 200 million to Ukraine and a nice little 6 billion tank deal to Poland. Nothing like a little war jawboning to get some palms greased... gotta make up for Afghanistan somehow. MIC been losing out to big pharma... they had to come back with something.
Russians are not going to invade anywhere. they might blow up NATO weapons brought into Ukraine, which would cross putin's red line. otherwise its proxy fight between donbas and west Ukraine, as usual. started by west Ukraine.
"Unless the US and UK change their tactics I think an invasion or incursion of some sort is highly likely. At this point, all the saber-rattling from our two countries' leaders leave Putin with few face-saving options. At least Germany and France have had the good sense to take diplomacy to where it really belongs - the back rooms of government. Biden is once again demonstrating why it has been said of him that he has been wrong on virtually every foreign policy issue during his entire career. He treats foreign policy as if every interaction is a version of the "Corn Pop" story."
In my opinion the odds have increased since I wrote that. The west's unwillingness to provide assurances that NATO won't expand into Ukraine and Zalensky's pushing for such action has Putin concerned about being isolated. If he can affect a change in leadership in Ukraine without invading he will but I don't see that as being very likely.
60 years ago the US chased the USSR nukes out of Cuba (too close for comfort.) How is it the US doesn't understand why Russia doesn't want NATO/US nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
Ever consider the possibility that Putin is playing with the West to see what they are made of as simply a test run to allow China understand the West's potential resolve about China taking over Taiwan. Are we not playing 3D (or 5D) chess here and are we up to the game?
On invasion: complete Ukrainian capitulation, or Putin invades before spring weather becomes a problem. Why?
- Baseline, Ukraine has been a part of Russia or Russia’s sphere for 300 years. Putin wants it back.
- Putin is smart, he knows he’s not persuading the enough Ukrainians to get Ukraine back into Russia/Russia’s sphere. Threats or force are the only way.
- There's no diplomatic solution here where Ukraine stays neutral. If they're neutral for now, at some later time when Russia is weaker Ukraine will join the EU or NATO or both.
- Russia has enough forces ready to go to probably succeed, and probably do it quickly.
- Various opponents of Russia (US, UK, EU and NATO members in Eastern Europe) are now more worried about this. They’re increasing military aid and this will increase the cost of an invasion at a later date.
To sum up: Force is the only way Russia gets Ukraine back. They can do it now or it will be more expensive later. They’ll try now.
On the market response: maybe we get a “buy the rumor/sell the news” bounce. Unless the invasion is over quickly and sanctions, such as they end up being, are just accepted as a cost, the bounce won’t stick. If it turns into a quagmire or sanctions generate a series of tit-for-tat responses, it’s going to hit commodity markets on the supply side as hard as the Covid crisis hit the demand side.
For the folks that seem to think what happens to the Ukraine doesn’t matter, maybe you’re right. On the other hand, that is only true if the U.S. can let the Ukraine go and not lose it’s reputation for being able to enforce the kind of stability free access to NATO in Europe was supposed to insure. The president of Finland just came out and said Finland would consider joining NATO if the Ukraine gets invaded. He understands the benefit. In short, that stability comes from a world centered on U.S. economic and military power.
We’ve had the reserve currency because we have made guarantees to the world to provide stability since before WW2. I’m not saying we’re good at wielding that power, or deserve it, but we are currently the best of a lot of bad options. If we pull back into some naive sense of isolationist/nationalism, we’ll prove to our allies that our desire or ability to project power and maintain the current geo-political status quo has slipped, that would devastate global trade. Study your history of what happens when global trade falls of a cliff. It sucks for everybody.
Russia and China have been working towards kicking the U.S. off the reserve currency pedestal for a long minute. They would love to crush our ability to tell others how the financial world is going to work: who gets sanctioned and who doesn’t. As much as we all think the government overspends and is a horrible manager of the national treasury, we get to enjoy the quality of life we do because of the power that comes from almost unlimited currency loans from the rest of the world, the ability to print money at will, and the levels of international trade that have been supported by a stabile reserve currency. Those things I just mentioned are why most assets classes go up in value more quickly in the U.S. than they do anywhere else. It is both the source of our inequality and why it’s easier to get rich in the U.S. than other places. If we lose that position and the ability to keep the shelves at Walmart filled with cheap goods; kiss whatever quality of life you currently enjoy goodbye because we’d all lose together.
What ever smart moves you may have made to commodities won’t mean much in a systemic collapse as the actual supply of goods falls off a cliff along with the currency. You’ll be better off than others but that just means better off than truly fucked. It doesn’t mean good or anything close to what it used to be.
We have to remember, we are not the richest nation in the world because we’re geographically large, exceedingly smart, have the best schools, or an amazing form of government. Save that nonsense for the school kids. We run shit because we control the money. To keep that privilege we need to prove that we can provide some measure of stability in the neighborhood. We’re basically the mob enforcers in this global hood. Lose that privilege and we’re screwed in ways most Americans have never really thought through. Nobody would be just fine with it. No market would be untouched. You don’t reinvent that system overnight or even in the next 5 years. As flawed as the current system is, watching it fall apart at speed because we lost the will or courage to defend it would be a nightmare. I’m not saying that letting the Ukraine be over run would undoubtably start that process but like the Roman Phaedrus liked to say, “Aggression unchallenged is aggression unleashed.”
Putin's goal is to reduce the relevance of America and destabilize America because that is the only threat to his monarchy. This has nothing to do with Russia. I am just amazed at the willful ignorance of lots of responders. They seem to be so blinded by hate of Biden, that they are willing to not look at this with a clear perspective. If he takes over Ukraine and nothing happens, he is basically telling everyone there (like Hitler) that pay your dues to me else .. and there is no one else to save you. An added benefit, he can jack up Oil/Gas prices boost his economy, hurt american consumers - get more inflation - force the fed even more - slow the economy and get Trump reelected. This will let Putin and Xi manage and grow their fiefdoms and the US slides into even more irrelavance economically and politically.
Your presentation is very incomplete and shows mainly the US views. It is not fair. Few exemples. 1. You spoke about the Russian troops parked inside their borders (waiting to invade of course), why did you not speak about 150k ukrainian troops massed also inside their borders along the line of separation. Shelling, sniper fire and other provocations from the Ukrainian side ( Azov nazis battalion ) are intensifying, with the hope of PROVOKING THE RUSSIANS into moving forces onto Ukrainian territory, thus allowing the collective West to shout "Aha! Russian aggression!" 2. Who will be the WINNER of a war? Of course the Americans, it would be the end of Nordstream 2, a large part of the European industry will become uncompetitive because they will have to buy the US LNG priced 5 times mkre than the Russian gas. Plus the arm sales and so on. Europe is an important competitor for the US and as everyone know in matter of state relations there is NO friends just interests. 3. I share the views of Orlov, the Russian will evacuate their citizens ( millions have a Russian passport ) to Russia and that will help Russia that is experiencing labor shortage...This evacuation has already started for women, children and the elderly. 4. Russia is a guarantor of the MINSK agreement ( you do not speak about it either in your articles ) Russia must REFUSE to surrender the Donbass to the Ukrainian government UNTIL IT FULFILLS THE TERMS of these agreements, which it has shown no intention of doing for seven years now and which it has RECENTLY REPUDIATED altogether. Note that the RUSSIAN MILITARY can shoot straight across all of Donbass without setting foot on Ukrainian soil. Should the Ukrainian forces attempt to enter Donbass, they will be dealt with per instance the Tornado-G system whose range is120km. 5. Nevertheless YOU HAVE TO BELIEVE the US media because America is fighting hard all around the world to protect women & children, human right and the LGBTXQ from horrific nazis and YOU against terrorists. Just ask the citizens of Yougoslavia, Irak, Lybia, Syria...Do not forget the Russians wil invade tomorrow tuesday the 22nd at 3.25 CET!😂🤣
"Yes invasion. Ground attack with limited air support in the next two to three weeks. End game is to make Ukraine a Moscow satellite and to continue to extort the west by showing Putin means business."
Putin has all the leverage. He doesn't have to invade to get his way. Just threaten w/troops on border and threaten to shut off gas to EU. France and Germany will negotiate w/Kamala.
NATO is going to GIVE Eastern Ukraine to Russia.
Kamala will declare: "Peace in our time"
Kamala viewed as savior and inherits the POTUS seat. Putin is happy, Xi is happy and so are the democrats.
Remember in 2020 how all the memes of "tough time make tough men, tough men make good times, good times make weak men, weak men make tough times" seems like we're at the doorstep of the "weak men make tough times" part of that if Putin steps his foot on the accelerator
Russia isn't going to invade. What would be the point of the cost? All Biden & Co are doing is pushing Russia & China together; the aftermath of which will be they coordinate, likely with Iran, to replace the dollar with the Yuan as the reserve currency, thereby collapsing the West without firing a shot - all thanks to a Military Industrial Congressional complex that needs a war to survive and still believes the power dynamic of the early '90s exists. Biden's handlers, whoever they are, are intent on the destruction of the West - they've already destroyed free speech, thought, assembly, travel, banking. Now they're getting past the prologue and onto the real destruction.
Tin foil hat; Trump and Putin are partners. The goal of this "fake" war is to push Russia out of the swift system on purpose. Once Biden pushes Putin out of Swift - Putin launches digital rubel w/ SEC unapproved XRP. Energy/inflation sky rocket in USA. More election fraud comes to light. The US "normies" start asking more and more questions. D-rubel and D-yuan in full swing outside of SWIFT by end of March
My puts on the Amsterdam stock exchange (AEX) worked out nicely: up about 35% on long dated puts. Considering taking some off the table (“buy the rumour, sell the fact”), but I’m afraid the West NEEDS a war to bury the CoNvid19 disaster and to ‘reunite’ (“rally behind the flag”) very divided post(?)-ConVid populations.
I honestly don't care if Russia invades Ukraine or not. It's none of our business and we should stay the hell out of it. The US shouldn't even be allowed to issue a press release on the situation until Joe Biden finishes his pudding and at least 11% of Americans can find Ukraine on a map. Until then we have our own problems that need to be addressed (which is exactly why we are beating the war drums).
The Bidan Administration needs the war. For multiple reasons. Including getting rid of Zelensky who they cannot control and replacing him with someone already compromised. But the primary reason is to have Putin (and the war) to blame for the massive inflation, $5 or higher gas, food shortages, etc that is crushing the middle and working class. Russia. Russia. Russia. As T. Carlson would say. Sadly, many of the mask wearing, oxygen deprived sheeples sitting on their couches watching the Mockingbird Media will buy in. Couple the above, with the re-up of the “National Emergency” order, with no stated end date, (Trump made a massive error with the original declaration but at least he put an end date in place) and we are no longer starring into the abyss. We are one brief puff of wind from free fall. After seeing what happened in Canada, and with Bidan re-affirming emergency powers where no emergency exists (analogous to Canada) SHTF is more probable than not.
No predictions on the market. I have tried to hedge both ways as best as I know how. Plus added to metals, took profits and made cash my largest position. The only new positions I’ll be taking on Tuesday is going long on 1 or more of the 4 publicly traded firms in the funeral/cemetery/casket business. Once the jab deaths really start to kick in, those are likely to be superb investments.
Putin is well know for NOT bluffing. If he says he is not going in (through his advisers) I would buy that. But then I bought a Lada some years ago......Oliver
Interesting dilemma indeed. Read the article from the Saker referenced below, which seems to make the most sense, and hopefully this will happen. In the mean-time, the west will continue to hoot, pant and thump their chest around the water hole of the Ukraine, looking like the Apes in the opening scene of "2001 A Space Odessey". Hopefully they won't take us to war, I prefer the spectacle of the hooting and panting........
Sanctions are a deterrent, if the US & UK were serious these would already be in place.
Putin is a statesman while the other leaders are all marketing puppets. Bomb the Russians into oblivion first signs of a spring thaw and continue to blow the shit out of all Russian airports and defense assests until the population realise what a bad idea this is.
So many downsides for Putin that I just can’t see it. More likely are incursions in the East which keep things at a simmer without outright conflict with Russian troops.
Only thing that would worry me if he did invade would be that he has a de facto green light and agreement with China for broader confrontation with the west. Still struggle to see the upside though.
Putin wants the Soviet satellites back and it will make him a hero in Russia. He will continue to take those Soviet satellite states back until the west stops him and they have no stomach for that.
Isn’t it a bit rude to be pumping a site on someone else’s substack? Lemme guess, you’re not even a paid subscriber to QTR? “ The Ukies also sent a diversionary group into the LDNR…”
“Ukies?” Someone who talks like that you cant take serious, this is kindergarten level. “LDNR?” What’s that? Luhansk and Donetsk National Republic? It certainly enhances one’s credibility if you at least get the names right: it’s LPR and DPR!
Why should the US, a country that doesn't believe in borders, even care about a distant non-strategic (to US) country protecting its borders? Why not apply the US rule ... the first 2-3 million Russians crossing the border get benefits etc just as in the US?
And distribute them around the country on free flights and bus rides. What’s the Russian Version of La Raza? I mean they were there first if you think about it…only thing that can stop the Russians now is if we arm the Ukrainians with the deadly horse whip (reins) weapon.
$85B a year we pay for our Spook operation with a five sided building trying to justify their existence for a start.
I was going to wait to join the conversation today but I just can’t help myself.
I was reminded about this November event: https://spacenews.com/russia-destroys-satellite-in-asat-test/
Now, if an invasion were to take place, what stops Russia and China from destroying USA military satellite systems en masse? I don’t think I need to elaborate on what that would accomplish.
Sanctions will be meaningless and entirely unenforceable as a result of such a move. They control time synchronization for the entire planet, most notably for international banking transactions.
Good luck with your greenbacks after that USA.
Yikes.
Full disclosure so I don’t get accused of cognitive dissonance here: I was wrong.
I'm a professional macro trader of some 35 years experience (yes, I started in 1987). While that means shit, I feel I have some understanding of game theory. Putin wants to protect the borders of Russia (I am no Putin fan by the way). Nordstream 2 has been blighted by the US at every opportunity (its Putins/Russias way of avoiding conflict with Ukraine by having an alternative point of both domestic economic gain and leverage on Europe - personally I believe understanding this is key to understanding what Putin is doing. If the west gives Putin a NO NATO guarantee on Ukraine (unlikely) then it devolves to Nordstream 2. If its a no go on that front (which at this point also seems likely) then a Ukraine incursion (in a limited fashion, possibly to re-impose a pro Russian Govt. is almost inevitable). Putin is a strong man, he cant back down from this without some sort of 'victory'. Lets not kid ourselves however, this whole thing is a sideshow to the reality of the main macro backdrop.............
Wake my a$$ up when there’s Russian crossing the border… or when the Mainstream State Media provides PROOF of this Imminent attack 🥱
US dumba$$ just trying to get the sheeple to forget about the record breaking inflation… bread & circus, with a side order of fear porn… the American way 🤦♂️
Well .. arms sales. 200 million to Ukraine and a nice little 6 billion tank deal to Poland. Nothing like a little war jawboning to get some palms greased... gotta make up for Afghanistan somehow. MIC been losing out to big pharma... they had to come back with something.
Time to wake up and smell the borscht.
Where is Ukraine?!?
Jokes aside…I don’t want any taxes or US military dying for Ukraine so Hunter can get another board seat (with 10% kickbacks to Pedo Joe).
Russians are not going to invade anywhere. they might blow up NATO weapons brought into Ukraine, which would cross putin's red line. otherwise its proxy fight between donbas and west Ukraine, as usual. started by west Ukraine.
Here's what I wrote last time you asked:
"Unless the US and UK change their tactics I think an invasion or incursion of some sort is highly likely. At this point, all the saber-rattling from our two countries' leaders leave Putin with few face-saving options. At least Germany and France have had the good sense to take diplomacy to where it really belongs - the back rooms of government. Biden is once again demonstrating why it has been said of him that he has been wrong on virtually every foreign policy issue during his entire career. He treats foreign policy as if every interaction is a version of the "Corn Pop" story."
In my opinion the odds have increased since I wrote that. The west's unwillingness to provide assurances that NATO won't expand into Ukraine and Zalensky's pushing for such action has Putin concerned about being isolated. If he can affect a change in leadership in Ukraine without invading he will but I don't see that as being very likely.
For the Hawkish Section: Olympics Closing Ceremony Tonight
Spring is coming. Warm weather means less use of heating. I think the Nat Gas leverage breaks down the longer Putin runs war games. 🤔
60 years ago the US chased the USSR nukes out of Cuba (too close for comfort.) How is it the US doesn't understand why Russia doesn't want NATO/US nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
Ukraine is not a member of NATO and the US has no missiles there.
Ever consider the possibility that Putin is playing with the West to see what they are made of as simply a test run to allow China understand the West's potential resolve about China taking over Taiwan. Are we not playing 3D (or 5D) chess here and are we up to the game?
Apples and oranges.
On invasion: complete Ukrainian capitulation, or Putin invades before spring weather becomes a problem. Why?
- Baseline, Ukraine has been a part of Russia or Russia’s sphere for 300 years. Putin wants it back.
- Putin is smart, he knows he’s not persuading the enough Ukrainians to get Ukraine back into Russia/Russia’s sphere. Threats or force are the only way.
- There's no diplomatic solution here where Ukraine stays neutral. If they're neutral for now, at some later time when Russia is weaker Ukraine will join the EU or NATO or both.
- Russia has enough forces ready to go to probably succeed, and probably do it quickly.
- Various opponents of Russia (US, UK, EU and NATO members in Eastern Europe) are now more worried about this. They’re increasing military aid and this will increase the cost of an invasion at a later date.
To sum up: Force is the only way Russia gets Ukraine back. They can do it now or it will be more expensive later. They’ll try now.
On the market response: maybe we get a “buy the rumor/sell the news” bounce. Unless the invasion is over quickly and sanctions, such as they end up being, are just accepted as a cost, the bounce won’t stick. If it turns into a quagmire or sanctions generate a series of tit-for-tat responses, it’s going to hit commodity markets on the supply side as hard as the Covid crisis hit the demand side.
First victim of war is - as usual - TRUTH. What should we believe at this point?
See above.
For the folks that seem to think what happens to the Ukraine doesn’t matter, maybe you’re right. On the other hand, that is only true if the U.S. can let the Ukraine go and not lose it’s reputation for being able to enforce the kind of stability free access to NATO in Europe was supposed to insure. The president of Finland just came out and said Finland would consider joining NATO if the Ukraine gets invaded. He understands the benefit. In short, that stability comes from a world centered on U.S. economic and military power.
We’ve had the reserve currency because we have made guarantees to the world to provide stability since before WW2. I’m not saying we’re good at wielding that power, or deserve it, but we are currently the best of a lot of bad options. If we pull back into some naive sense of isolationist/nationalism, we’ll prove to our allies that our desire or ability to project power and maintain the current geo-political status quo has slipped, that would devastate global trade. Study your history of what happens when global trade falls of a cliff. It sucks for everybody.
Russia and China have been working towards kicking the U.S. off the reserve currency pedestal for a long minute. They would love to crush our ability to tell others how the financial world is going to work: who gets sanctioned and who doesn’t. As much as we all think the government overspends and is a horrible manager of the national treasury, we get to enjoy the quality of life we do because of the power that comes from almost unlimited currency loans from the rest of the world, the ability to print money at will, and the levels of international trade that have been supported by a stabile reserve currency. Those things I just mentioned are why most assets classes go up in value more quickly in the U.S. than they do anywhere else. It is both the source of our inequality and why it’s easier to get rich in the U.S. than other places. If we lose that position and the ability to keep the shelves at Walmart filled with cheap goods; kiss whatever quality of life you currently enjoy goodbye because we’d all lose together.
What ever smart moves you may have made to commodities won’t mean much in a systemic collapse as the actual supply of goods falls off a cliff along with the currency. You’ll be better off than others but that just means better off than truly fucked. It doesn’t mean good or anything close to what it used to be.
We have to remember, we are not the richest nation in the world because we’re geographically large, exceedingly smart, have the best schools, or an amazing form of government. Save that nonsense for the school kids. We run shit because we control the money. To keep that privilege we need to prove that we can provide some measure of stability in the neighborhood. We’re basically the mob enforcers in this global hood. Lose that privilege and we’re screwed in ways most Americans have never really thought through. Nobody would be just fine with it. No market would be untouched. You don’t reinvent that system overnight or even in the next 5 years. As flawed as the current system is, watching it fall apart at speed because we lost the will or courage to defend it would be a nightmare. I’m not saying that letting the Ukraine be over run would undoubtably start that process but like the Roman Phaedrus liked to say, “Aggression unchallenged is aggression unleashed.”
God, finally someone with a functioning brain in this here joint.
Putin's goal is to reduce the relevance of America and destabilize America because that is the only threat to his monarchy. This has nothing to do with Russia. I am just amazed at the willful ignorance of lots of responders. They seem to be so blinded by hate of Biden, that they are willing to not look at this with a clear perspective. If he takes over Ukraine and nothing happens, he is basically telling everyone there (like Hitler) that pay your dues to me else .. and there is no one else to save you. An added benefit, he can jack up Oil/Gas prices boost his economy, hurt american consumers - get more inflation - force the fed even more - slow the economy and get Trump reelected. This will let Putin and Xi manage and grow their fiefdoms and the US slides into even more irrelavance economically and politically.
I hope when the bombs start falling- they fall in the suburbs of DC, NYC, Phili and MD
Your presentation is very incomplete and shows mainly the US views. It is not fair. Few exemples. 1. You spoke about the Russian troops parked inside their borders (waiting to invade of course), why did you not speak about 150k ukrainian troops massed also inside their borders along the line of separation. Shelling, sniper fire and other provocations from the Ukrainian side ( Azov nazis battalion ) are intensifying, with the hope of PROVOKING THE RUSSIANS into moving forces onto Ukrainian territory, thus allowing the collective West to shout "Aha! Russian aggression!" 2. Who will be the WINNER of a war? Of course the Americans, it would be the end of Nordstream 2, a large part of the European industry will become uncompetitive because they will have to buy the US LNG priced 5 times mkre than the Russian gas. Plus the arm sales and so on. Europe is an important competitor for the US and as everyone know in matter of state relations there is NO friends just interests. 3. I share the views of Orlov, the Russian will evacuate their citizens ( millions have a Russian passport ) to Russia and that will help Russia that is experiencing labor shortage...This evacuation has already started for women, children and the elderly. 4. Russia is a guarantor of the MINSK agreement ( you do not speak about it either in your articles ) Russia must REFUSE to surrender the Donbass to the Ukrainian government UNTIL IT FULFILLS THE TERMS of these agreements, which it has shown no intention of doing for seven years now and which it has RECENTLY REPUDIATED altogether. Note that the RUSSIAN MILITARY can shoot straight across all of Donbass without setting foot on Ukrainian soil. Should the Ukrainian forces attempt to enter Donbass, they will be dealt with per instance the Tornado-G system whose range is120km. 5. Nevertheless YOU HAVE TO BELIEVE the US media because America is fighting hard all around the world to protect women & children, human right and the LGBTXQ from horrific nazis and YOU against terrorists. Just ask the citizens of Yougoslavia, Irak, Lybia, Syria...Do not forget the Russians wil invade tomorrow tuesday the 22nd at 3.25 CET!😂🤣
Anything to distract from Russia-REALY-gate
I will stay with my comments of FEB 12:
"Yes invasion. Ground attack with limited air support in the next two to three weeks. End game is to make Ukraine a Moscow satellite and to continue to extort the west by showing Putin means business."
If Putin invades, the DJIA drops 1,000 +.
Putin has all the leverage. He doesn't have to invade to get his way. Just threaten w/troops on border and threaten to shut off gas to EU. France and Germany will negotiate w/Kamala.
NATO is going to GIVE Eastern Ukraine to Russia.
Kamala will declare: "Peace in our time"
Kamala viewed as savior and inherits the POTUS seat. Putin is happy, Xi is happy and so are the democrats.
Remember in 2020 how all the memes of "tough time make tough men, tough men make good times, good times make weak men, weak men make tough times" seems like we're at the doorstep of the "weak men make tough times" part of that if Putin steps his foot on the accelerator
Russia isn't going to invade. What would be the point of the cost? All Biden & Co are doing is pushing Russia & China together; the aftermath of which will be they coordinate, likely with Iran, to replace the dollar with the Yuan as the reserve currency, thereby collapsing the West without firing a shot - all thanks to a Military Industrial Congressional complex that needs a war to survive and still believes the power dynamic of the early '90s exists. Biden's handlers, whoever they are, are intent on the destruction of the West - they've already destroyed free speech, thought, assembly, travel, banking. Now they're getting past the prologue and onto the real destruction.
And there it is. Putin declares independence or regions.
Tin foil hat; Trump and Putin are partners. The goal of this "fake" war is to push Russia out of the swift system on purpose. Once Biden pushes Putin out of Swift - Putin launches digital rubel w/ SEC unapproved XRP. Energy/inflation sky rocket in USA. More election fraud comes to light. The US "normies" start asking more and more questions. D-rubel and D-yuan in full swing outside of SWIFT by end of March
Too many comments that have nothing to do with the markets. Maybe more posts for subscribers only are in order?
My puts on the Amsterdam stock exchange (AEX) worked out nicely: up about 35% on long dated puts. Considering taking some off the table (“buy the rumour, sell the fact”), but I’m afraid the West NEEDS a war to bury the CoNvid19 disaster and to ‘reunite’ (“rally behind the flag”) very divided post(?)-ConVid populations.
I honestly don't care if Russia invades Ukraine or not. It's none of our business and we should stay the hell out of it. The US shouldn't even be allowed to issue a press release on the situation until Joe Biden finishes his pudding and at least 11% of Americans can find Ukraine on a map. Until then we have our own problems that need to be addressed (which is exactly why we are beating the war drums).
The Bidan Administration needs the war. For multiple reasons. Including getting rid of Zelensky who they cannot control and replacing him with someone already compromised. But the primary reason is to have Putin (and the war) to blame for the massive inflation, $5 or higher gas, food shortages, etc that is crushing the middle and working class. Russia. Russia. Russia. As T. Carlson would say. Sadly, many of the mask wearing, oxygen deprived sheeples sitting on their couches watching the Mockingbird Media will buy in. Couple the above, with the re-up of the “National Emergency” order, with no stated end date, (Trump made a massive error with the original declaration but at least he put an end date in place) and we are no longer starring into the abyss. We are one brief puff of wind from free fall. After seeing what happened in Canada, and with Bidan re-affirming emergency powers where no emergency exists (analogous to Canada) SHTF is more probable than not.
No predictions on the market. I have tried to hedge both ways as best as I know how. Plus added to metals, took profits and made cash my largest position. The only new positions I’ll be taking on Tuesday is going long on 1 or more of the 4 publicly traded firms in the funeral/cemetery/casket business. Once the jab deaths really start to kick in, those are likely to be superb investments.
Putin is well know for NOT bluffing. If he says he is not going in (through his advisers) I would buy that. But then I bought a Lada some years ago......Oliver
Interesting dilemma indeed. Read the article from the Saker referenced below, which seems to make the most sense, and hopefully this will happen. In the mean-time, the west will continue to hoot, pant and thump their chest around the water hole of the Ukraine, looking like the Apes in the opening scene of "2001 A Space Odessey". Hopefully they won't take us to war, I prefer the spectacle of the hooting and panting........
https://www.armytimes.com/land/2022/02/18/state-department-clears-6-billion-sale-of-tanks-to-poland/
Some damn rich apes.
Yeah, saw the headline the other day, hopefully the posturing remains just that, posturing. Thanks for the reply!
Sanctions are a deterrent, if the US & UK were serious these would already be in place.
Putin is a statesman while the other leaders are all marketing puppets. Bomb the Russians into oblivion first signs of a spring thaw and continue to blow the shit out of all Russian airports and defense assests until the population realise what a bad idea this is.
Otherwise STFU US & UK
So many downsides for Putin that I just can’t see it. More likely are incursions in the East which keep things at a simmer without outright conflict with Russian troops.
Only thing that would worry me if he did invade would be that he has a de facto green light and agreement with China for broader confrontation with the west. Still struggle to see the upside though.
Putin wants the Soviet satellites back and it will make him a hero in Russia. He will continue to take those Soviet satellite states back until the west stops him and they have no stomach for that.
Dmitry Orlov - Check the comments section as well.
Putin’s Ukrainian Judo Revisited
https://thesaker.is/putins-ukrainian-judo-revisited/
What are Putin and Macron up to?
https://thesaker.is/what-are-putin-and-macron-up-to/
Isn’t it a bit rude to be pumping a site on someone else’s substack? Lemme guess, you’re not even a paid subscriber to QTR? “ The Ukies also sent a diversionary group into the LDNR…”
“Ukies?” Someone who talks like that you cant take serious, this is kindergarten level. “LDNR?” What’s that? Luhansk and Donetsk National Republic? It certainly enhances one’s credibility if you at least get the names right: it’s LPR and DPR!
I’m a paid subscriber. You are a troll.