In a day or two I’m going to start releasing my 24 stocks I’m watching for 2024 and a recap of my 23 stocks for 2023. I’ll also offer up a brief writeup on the risks I see for the market heading into the new year and my generally macro outlook, which most of my paid subscribers already know.
But before I fire off my list in two parts, I wanted to ask my readers what names and sectors they are paying extra close attention to heading into the new year - and why?
Would love to start a dialogue and hear your answers in the comments below:
Oh I know it! Lol... I agree it's been tough sledding. It's hard to imagine it getting a lot worse with the shares while the metal prices grind higher. My anticipation is it will take a few quarters of (maybe not even a few - but a at least 1 or 2) of earnings releases where we see the impact of margin expansion versus the compression they have experienced for the last couple of years.
Dec 27, 2023·edited Dec 27, 2023Liked by Quoth the Raven
Crypto sector only for 2024. Why... 1) stocks too manipulated. 2) US Gov. numbers too manipulated. 3) US Economy, debt, and fiat, too fragile. 4) World stage too fragile. 5) Bitcoin spot ETF approval in Jan, 24. 6) Bitcoin halving in April, 24. 7) Take advantage of Web3, DeFi, and anonymity.
given defense companies lack of performance this year, am quite curious your views on them going forward. seems like 2 wars would have been a plus, but not so much
They are tools used to kill innocent human beings and profit from it! And they take wealth that could be used for productive purposes! But hey, we've always gotta have wars. The good Ole USA cannot get along with anyone!
as we head into the New Year.......i don't really pay any attention to any Sector.....except that in my Portfolio.............Cameco still remains my best performing stock out of the 100 stocks in my Portfolio......
at this time i have an Alert that if it goes below $55....then i must Sell.......i don't want to......but i also don't want to lose it all......i have only one Share...lol
they are all Penny Stocks......and i never spend anymore than $20 on any stock.....so that limits how many shares i can buy on any stock.........no.....i am not getting rich....lol....but i am having fun.......
The Deep State and its Euro affiliates may succeed in their attempt to "deindustrialize and impoverish" the "West" but the rest of the world is apparently not going to have anything to do with the project beyond "lip service"
Initial thoughts (in no particular order) - ammunition for widely-owned (and personally-owned) firearms, "survival" food stores, Gasoline storage facilities where feasible, 2500 Watt (or higher) gasoline Generators, "junk" silver coins and 1-oz silver "rounds", FRNs in various denominations up to $20K for the first 10 - 20 days after SHTF Day, "common" alcoholic beverages in quart and larger sizes and substantial supply of smaller bottles for sale/barter; XOM, URA, SIL, GDX, TXN for spec.
Energy. If you think we are probably headed into a commodities supercycle, just got to pick a couple sectors and not get bucked off until we start seeing euphoria. I own a shitload of Peabody Energy (BTU) and Warrior Met Coal (HCC) for coal. Too cheap to ignore and they are setup like tobacco stocks in 2000. Petrobras (PBR.A) and Ecopetrol (EC) for South American energy. If you like dividends and are fine with some political risk, you will like those.
Offshore energy is a good place to be if you're patient, because it will probably take 3 to 5 years for the offshore bull market to get into full swing. I own Transocean (RIG) shares and calls for deepwater, which has a levered balance sheet but the best fleet and management imo. Borr Drilling (BORR) is the way to go for jackups, and they just refinanced and termed out their debt, and announced a $100M buyback and $0.05 quarterly dividend (2.7% yield). Possibly the best option of all three, especially if you want capital returns. If you want OSVs, Tidewater (TDW) still has upside but not quite as cheap as it was a year ago, and probably not as cheap as other offshore stocks. I also a few Valaris warrants (basically the equivalent of 2028 call options) because I don't like their management, but I think the whole sector is going to work in a big way over the next 3 to 5 years.
Vertex Energy (VTNR) is a dirt cheap refiner that is worth a lot more than the current share price, assuming they can pay their 2025 debt. Been buying that recently and I think it could rerate fairly quickly depending on energy prices/crack spreads. NewLake Capital Partners (NLCP) is a cannabis REIT with a big dividend, and the shares have finally started to act better over the last month. Just hiked the dividend and they have a debt free balance sheet.
Lots of different ideas, but I have a hard time getting excited by stuff outside of the energy sector. There are a couple special situations, but I think energy is the right pond to be fishing in for the next 3 to 5 years.
Why: concerned with geo-political environment and higher than normal potential for major disruption and potential ‘crash’ in traditional asset valuations. Hedging my bets. Otherwise 85/15 equity/cash and equivalents
I like this idea. I think bonds could still wind up coming off in the new year when people start to scramble for liquidity. I'm buying TLT on a slow recurring basis regardless just in case the Keynesian shit show holds up for another 10-20 years. At the least it'll capture some yield. If we go back to ZIRP, 4% will be a pipe dream.
Hi Chris. Happy New Year. I am seeing all the interest rate sensitive shares that were murdered the past two years, making strong recoveries as rates are reduced. There are some great dividends available from solid companies. ABR is one. PMT is another. In shipping NAT looks good
Biotech. Lower rates bring better discounting values to the group. M&A has been crackling nearly every week at very fancy premiums Cancer, immunotherapy, neurological are the pistol hot areas. Big pharma waking up to fallow pipelines. Looking to buy molecules. 3 year bear market was enough. And no one is there. It’s perfect.
High yield debt, SBICs, regional banks, life companies. Potential chaos from long duration CRE write-downs, cross-collateralization of assets
Non-US equities, namely dividend stocks. Potential divergence in either direction vs SPY
Platinum and palladium
Money market funds, and an analysis of the fine print (prospectus, annual reports). Blows my mind that these yield less than tbills, include agency debt, and maintain repos collateralized by 30+ year treasuries. I’m surprised no one talks about this.
I'm eyeballing / cautiously buying DLX, OGN, WBA. I'm a dividend whore, have been and now especially into 24. I also am heavily into gold, FTCO, and PHYS. also preferreds, UNMA, CMREPRB and of course the quoth mentioned PGX which is basket of preferreds paying monthly distribution .
as far as speculative I favor biotechnology . because I have ALS I am invested / gambling on CLNN and BCLI. also took a flyer on INZY who is waiting for approval on new drug.
energy, esp Oil & COAL(too underestimated & less investment & Best sector if China rebound), China($BABA & China Local Energy & Semiconductor stock), BRAZIL(EWZ(S), BRZU, PBR.A, VALE, BAK, LND.... best Commodity spot), and all PM sector(GDX, GDXU, SILJ, SBSW), Shipping lanes(Esp drybulk), etc
Yes, agreed. I have been taking profits after a great year in Uranium. Thanks goes to you for that recommendation (and to me for subscribing to you and for pulling the trigger on the trade).
gold miner etf’s gdx and gdxj. also full positions in three specific miners that are executing well lately: kgc, ngd and paas. and a smaller more speculative position in a canadian junior miner tskff, that is almost ready to pull gold out of the ground. also have a full position in gldd, a very interesting dredging services company that specializes in projects that protect and improve the country's coastlines and infrastructure. they’re the largest in the usa, which gives them significant economies of scale and returns on capital investment. (the equipment needed to do this is expensive & slow to build. and this is important because the projects gldd competes for are subject to competitive bidding. so due to their advantages in scale & equipment they’re able to bid lower than their smaller competitors and still make higher margins. the stock is currently underpriced due to analyst misunderstanding of how slow the supply chain is for buying their market dominating equipment but that distraction is now complete. gldd is in the process of revaluing back to where it was after the knee-jerk reaction to their last quarterly results. and their progress fulfilling their growing order backlog will start feeding into 2024 results, & the stock will do very well next year. this is a big infrastructure play—these projects are very important and desperately needed. i’m also in the process of building full positions in two thinly traded US water stocks. it’s taking for ever to build the positions. they're not utilities in the traditional sense. they own the full rights to water in the ground in some water starved areas. will share when i’m done buying;)
You're gonna hate me for this, but what I am bullish about are:
- Nasdaq
- BTC
- Pakistan (ETF PAK)
- Egypt
- maybe defense sector (Raytheon, etc)
I do not expect energy to break out in 2024... at least not until 2025. The only exception to this is uranium. The bull market will likely continue there. Eventually energy will break and it will take away one more degree of freedom from the FED but we will not see this in 2024, maybe not even 2025. Oil will hit 50 or even lower in 2024.
More like 50 or even lower in my opinion. The establishment has now several good reasons to keep oil down and they still have loads of ways to achieve this. Wr havent even seen rationing and price controls yet which were common in the 70s after the oil embargo of 73.
They did it in the 1970s. And the DNC has nothing to fear about the elections, they cheated in 2020 and in 2022, they will keep in cheating indefinitely. The US has become a single-party state.
Happy 2024 Chris. I'm the end everything depends on interest rates in especially the ten year treasury. If we believe that Jerome will keep suppressing rates, then the interest rate sensitive companies that have been slaughtered the past two years, will thrive. Of course some have partially recovered already, but not near fully. There are great income plays out there. Love all your work, your humility, and your integrity. Thank you.
I agree with the election coming up the money will flow this year, the long duration will act like leverage as rates go down. I may even get some $ZROZ. Love your podcast this year
Is there a link where I can read past commentaries? I accidentally deleted today's comments. Can someone send me a link where I can read the comments sent out this morning concerning stock picks for 2024? Thanks in advance.
Energy, BTC and speculative and cyclical stocks. This market has been set to dump in 2025/26 NOT 2024 as I thought last year and into this year. It is being manipulated for a huge failure AFTER elections.
Energy (coal, oil, natural gas) and uranium.
Same, especially PBR.A as my oil/energy play.
Gold, gold, and gold….
I really need more interests.
Uranium uranium and uranium
Time for a Kuppy update
Gold and silver miners. Energy - Oil, Nat Gas
boy, the miners have been such dogs it is hard to stay enthused and I like gold a lot
One could argue that's *WHY* you should stay enthused...
I hear you but remember, the one thing Keynes got right was markets can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent
We have not lost money on GDX. I agree with Chris.
It’ll happen...patience required
Oh I know it! Lol... I agree it's been tough sledding. It's hard to imagine it getting a lot worse with the shares while the metal prices grind higher. My anticipation is it will take a few quarters of (maybe not even a few - but a at least 1 or 2) of earnings releases where we see the impact of margin expansion versus the compression they have experienced for the last couple of years.
Dogs with fleas!
LOL
Crypto sector only for 2024. Why... 1) stocks too manipulated. 2) US Gov. numbers too manipulated. 3) US Economy, debt, and fiat, too fragile. 4) World stage too fragile. 5) Bitcoin spot ETF approval in Jan, 24. 6) Bitcoin halving in April, 24. 7) Take advantage of Web3, DeFi, and anonymity.
There is no such thing as Web3... just be careful out there!
given defense companies lack of performance this year, am quite curious your views on them going forward. seems like 2 wars would have been a plus, but not so much
There's one in specific I like that I'll point out for 2024. In general, I'm bullish on the sector (again).
They are tools used to kill innocent human beings and profit from it! And they take wealth that could be used for productive purposes! But hey, we've always gotta have wars. The good Ole USA cannot get along with anyone!
as we head into the New Year.......i don't really pay any attention to any Sector.....except that in my Portfolio.............Cameco still remains my best performing stock out of the 100 stocks in my Portfolio......
Cameco has a beautiful looking YTD chart
Yeah. Still like uranium into the new year but what a crazy run it has already had. Wouldn't be surprised if it cools a little in 2024, who knows.
at this time i have an Alert that if it goes below $55....then i must Sell.......i don't want to......but i also don't want to lose it all......i have only one Share...lol
my other option.....i am considering....that if it goes to low.......i may buy another share........
100 stocks seems like too many unless you have a $1B
they are all Penny Stocks......and i never spend anymore than $20 on any stock.....so that limits how many shares i can buy on any stock.........no.....i am not getting rich....lol....but i am having fun.......
Gold and silver mining and oil and natural gas(federal and state and city regulations on gas related appliances decreasing demand for natural gas?.)
The Deep State and its Euro affiliates may succeed in their attempt to "deindustrialize and impoverish" the "West" but the rest of the world is apparently not going to have anything to do with the project beyond "lip service"
Energy, Gold, Commodities, Cybersecurity, Blockchain ecosystem
Initial thoughts (in no particular order) - ammunition for widely-owned (and personally-owned) firearms, "survival" food stores, Gasoline storage facilities where feasible, 2500 Watt (or higher) gasoline Generators, "junk" silver coins and 1-oz silver "rounds", FRNs in various denominations up to $20K for the first 10 - 20 days after SHTF Day, "common" alcoholic beverages in quart and larger sizes and substantial supply of smaller bottles for sale/barter; XOM, URA, SIL, GDX, TXN for spec.
Idem Charles’ sectors above. +Copper
Bitcoin miners, including CLSK, MARA, RIOT, BITF, CAN, and several others.
HUT
PYPL SQ HOOD SOFI UEC UUUU LEU HL SILV BTE , Bitcoin Miners , Offshore Drilling
Energy. If you think we are probably headed into a commodities supercycle, just got to pick a couple sectors and not get bucked off until we start seeing euphoria. I own a shitload of Peabody Energy (BTU) and Warrior Met Coal (HCC) for coal. Too cheap to ignore and they are setup like tobacco stocks in 2000. Petrobras (PBR.A) and Ecopetrol (EC) for South American energy. If you like dividends and are fine with some political risk, you will like those.
Offshore energy is a good place to be if you're patient, because it will probably take 3 to 5 years for the offshore bull market to get into full swing. I own Transocean (RIG) shares and calls for deepwater, which has a levered balance sheet but the best fleet and management imo. Borr Drilling (BORR) is the way to go for jackups, and they just refinanced and termed out their debt, and announced a $100M buyback and $0.05 quarterly dividend (2.7% yield). Possibly the best option of all three, especially if you want capital returns. If you want OSVs, Tidewater (TDW) still has upside but not quite as cheap as it was a year ago, and probably not as cheap as other offshore stocks. I also a few Valaris warrants (basically the equivalent of 2028 call options) because I don't like their management, but I think the whole sector is going to work in a big way over the next 3 to 5 years.
Vertex Energy (VTNR) is a dirt cheap refiner that is worth a lot more than the current share price, assuming they can pay their 2025 debt. Been buying that recently and I think it could rerate fairly quickly depending on energy prices/crack spreads. NewLake Capital Partners (NLCP) is a cannabis REIT with a big dividend, and the shares have finally started to act better over the last month. Just hiked the dividend and they have a debt free balance sheet.
Lots of different ideas, but I have a hard time getting excited by stuff outside of the energy sector. There are a couple special situations, but I think energy is the right pond to be fishing in for the next 3 to 5 years.
Interaction of TIPS, gold (miners and physical), and fixed income
Oil stocks, uranium stocks, and physical silver with a little gold every now and then.
Stocks: LQDA, BABA
Sector: gold & gold miners + Bitcoin miners
Bitcoin (self-custody)
Why: concerned with geo-political environment and higher than normal potential for major disruption and potential ‘crash’ in traditional asset valuations. Hedging my bets. Otherwise 85/15 equity/cash and equivalents
Long bonds TLT or TMF
I like this idea. I think bonds could still wind up coming off in the new year when people start to scramble for liquidity. I'm buying TLT on a slow recurring basis regardless just in case the Keynesian shit show holds up for another 10-20 years. At the least it'll capture some yield. If we go back to ZIRP, 4% will be a pipe dream.
Hi Chris. Happy New Year. I am seeing all the interest rate sensitive shares that were murdered the past two years, making strong recoveries as rates are reduced. There are some great dividends available from solid companies. ABR is one. PMT is another. In shipping NAT looks good
Shipping-Suez and Panama Canal Issues. Tanker and bulkers have low order books
Precious Metals-Finally time to shine, if not now...when?
Crypto-Best place for little guy to get massive gains with speculative $
Small Caps-Unloved for to long
Emerging Markets-If Fed starts cutting rates Emerging Markets typically do well and are undervalued
Uranium-Narrative on nuclear has changed and where is the immediate supply coming from in the next couple of years?
Offshore service (TDW, RIG).
Gold miners.
Digital pipes (VZ, T, CHTR).
Biotech. Lower rates bring better discounting values to the group. M&A has been crackling nearly every week at very fancy premiums Cancer, immunotherapy, neurological are the pistol hot areas. Big pharma waking up to fallow pipelines. Looking to buy molecules. 3 year bear market was enough. And no one is there. It’s perfect.
Cautiously optimistic: utilities, high quality REITs
Pessimistic: Magnificent 7, especially Nvidia
For 2024:
- BTC
- Silver & miners: physical, PSLV, AG, SILJ, GSVRF
- Dry powder
High yield debt, SBICs, regional banks, life companies. Potential chaos from long duration CRE write-downs, cross-collateralization of assets
Non-US equities, namely dividend stocks. Potential divergence in either direction vs SPY
Platinum and palladium
Money market funds, and an analysis of the fine print (prospectus, annual reports). Blows my mind that these yield less than tbills, include agency debt, and maintain repos collateralized by 30+ year treasuries. I’m surprised no one talks about this.
Gold, silver, uranium, vanadium, miners, bitcoin and some small crypto plays.
I'm eyeballing / cautiously buying DLX, OGN, WBA. I'm a dividend whore, have been and now especially into 24. I also am heavily into gold, FTCO, and PHYS. also preferreds, UNMA, CMREPRB and of course the quoth mentioned PGX which is basket of preferreds paying monthly distribution .
as far as speculative I favor biotechnology . because I have ALS I am invested / gambling on CLNN and BCLI. also took a flyer on INZY who is waiting for approval on new drug.
energy, esp Oil & COAL(too underestimated & less investment & Best sector if China rebound), China($BABA & China Local Energy & Semiconductor stock), BRAZIL(EWZ(S), BRZU, PBR.A, VALE, BAK, LND.... best Commodity spot), and all PM sector(GDX, GDXU, SILJ, SBSW), Shipping lanes(Esp drybulk), etc
gold and silver miners
The shipping stocks.
Recommended Reading: Howe's "Fourth Turning Is Here"
Most all commodities. I recently started dabbling into a couple office REITS
Have a small position in ARGT as well
Yes, agreed. I have been taking profits after a great year in Uranium. Thanks goes to you for that recommendation (and to me for subscribing to you and for pulling the trigger on the trade).
I am hoping you will review David Roger Webb's book The Great Taking:
https://thegreattaking.com/ This contention is we are all shortly going to be Corzined
oil and natural gas, gold, uranium, low debt value stocks and more gold and short ESG / corporate wokery
Stay away from AI. TSLA drops too.
Can't help but agree with you on this one...
Naked self-promo--- have me on your podcast and kick my ass where we disagree!!!
gold miner etf’s gdx and gdxj. also full positions in three specific miners that are executing well lately: kgc, ngd and paas. and a smaller more speculative position in a canadian junior miner tskff, that is almost ready to pull gold out of the ground. also have a full position in gldd, a very interesting dredging services company that specializes in projects that protect and improve the country's coastlines and infrastructure. they’re the largest in the usa, which gives them significant economies of scale and returns on capital investment. (the equipment needed to do this is expensive & slow to build. and this is important because the projects gldd competes for are subject to competitive bidding. so due to their advantages in scale & equipment they’re able to bid lower than their smaller competitors and still make higher margins. the stock is currently underpriced due to analyst misunderstanding of how slow the supply chain is for buying their market dominating equipment but that distraction is now complete. gldd is in the process of revaluing back to where it was after the knee-jerk reaction to their last quarterly results. and their progress fulfilling their growing order backlog will start feeding into 2024 results, & the stock will do very well next year. this is a big infrastructure play—these projects are very important and desperately needed. i’m also in the process of building full positions in two thinly traded US water stocks. it’s taking for ever to build the positions. they're not utilities in the traditional sense. they own the full rights to water in the ground in some water starved areas. will share when i’m done buying;)
Natural gas at this beaten down level is a buy... SWN and UNG
You're gonna hate me for this, but what I am bullish about are:
- Nasdaq
- BTC
- Pakistan (ETF PAK)
- Egypt
- maybe defense sector (Raytheon, etc)
I do not expect energy to break out in 2024... at least not until 2025. The only exception to this is uranium. The bull market will likely continue there. Eventually energy will break and it will take away one more degree of freedom from the FED but we will not see this in 2024, maybe not even 2025. Oil will hit 50 or even lower in 2024.
I'm closer to this line of thinking - wait on big oil entry... lean-in once crude hits $60, ride for long haul
I'm with you on this one too.
More like 50 or even lower in my opinion. The establishment has now several good reasons to keep oil down and they still have loads of ways to achieve this. Wr havent even seen rationing and price controls yet which were common in the 70s after the oil embargo of 73.
Is rationing/price controls even possible in US now ?
Wouldn't it be political suicide for whichever party is in power.
They did it in the 1970s. And the DNC has nothing to fear about the elections, they cheated in 2020 and in 2022, they will keep in cheating indefinitely. The US has become a single-party state.
I don't quite agree with you on the 2020 election but would definitely start picking up oil companies in case crude goes to 50.
Emerging markets specifically Brazil. Uranium, precious metals and commodities. Alternative asset classes. International stocks.
Yeah there's one or two international ETFs I think are interesting. Will note in my writeup.
Check out INDA and EWZ! I am trapped out of INDA and waiting for a pullback if it ever happens.
+1 EWZ here
Happy 2024 Chris. I'm the end everything depends on interest rates in especially the ten year treasury. If we believe that Jerome will keep suppressing rates, then the interest rate sensitive companies that have been slaughtered the past two years, will thrive. Of course some have partially recovered already, but not near fully. There are great income plays out there. Love all your work, your humility, and your integrity. Thank you.
I agree with the election coming up the money will flow this year, the long duration will act like leverage as rates go down. I may even get some $ZROZ. Love your podcast this year
Aside from speculating with various lottery ticket small caps, I own oil, natural gas, platinum, rare earth minerals (fund) and GOLD !!
Can anyone direct me to where I can read today's comments on stock picks? I accidentally deleted today's email on stock picks
Is there a link where I can read past commentaries? I accidentally deleted today's comments. Can someone send me a link where I can read the comments sent out this morning concerning stock picks for 2024? Thanks in advance.
US equities over EM
Large-cap over Small-cap
S&P7 over S&P493
Lithium miners over Energy names
DXY down
Natgas and oil lower
Precious metal miners higher
MSTR
how about uranium miners?
Energy, BTC and speculative and cyclical stocks. This market has been set to dump in 2025/26 NOT 2024 as I thought last year and into this year. It is being manipulated for a huge failure AFTER elections.