The game theory of this upcoming election has been fascinating to me. So far, I’ve written about my thoughts on Trump’s VP and who could replace Biden, as well as throwing my hat in the ring for Trump to select Tulsi Gabbard as VP, with hopes she gets a chance to kick the shit out of Vice President Airhead on national television at some point again.
I found myself poring over the comments in my last few articles reading everyone’s fascinating take on what’s possible with just 5 months left until the election and thought I would formalize the discussion a bit here on this thread with a couple specific things I’m left wondering.
It’s not in my nature to give my subscribers and readers homework for the weekend, but I was going to put these questions to a Twitter poll when I realized (1) it would be easier to do it here on a thread where we can discuss and (2) I care about my subscriber community’s opinions more than many of the randos that follow me on Twitter.
I wanted to get my subscribers’ takes on a couple of questions:
Who do you think the Democratic nominee will be and why? If someone other than Joe Biden, when and how will Biden be replaced (i.e. will he back out or be forced out and, if the latter, how will it go down?)
Who do you think Trump will realistically pick as his VP (not who you want to see, who he will go with) and explain the reasoning for picking them?
Who do you think is really calling the shots at the Biden administration right now? Jill? Hunter? The Obamas? The “deep state”? Explain your reasoning.
Do you think there are forces holding up the stock market and macroeconomic data (i.e. the jobs numbers that keep getting revised, CPI, etc.) to get us to November? If so, do you think the bottom could fall out of the market and this data “surprisingly” in November, post-election?
Leave your take in the comments and vote up those you agree with:
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I'll take a stab at it, Chris. Since Joe was all worked up in Detroit last night, he is not going anywhere willingly. He is the nominee. There have been no rumblings of 25th Amendment, which is the only way they could remove him, and then Kamala becomes the President and presumptive nominee.
The administration is being run by the loyalists from his first campaign and Obama operatives, namely Blinken, Sullivan and Rice. I think it makes more sense now that Lloyd Austin dipped out at the end of last year without telling anyone he was having surgery, because no one tells anyone anything in this administration--no duty to inform. But I bet Blinken, Sullivan and Rice knew Austin was having surgery.
I think Trump will pick JD Vance as his younger, mini-me, putting him in place to win in 2028 and continue the MAGA movement. See the story about how badly Rupert Murdock is trashing JD and pushing Bergum. Also, Trump likes the ring of two single syllable words--"Trump-Vance"
DK on the market, but clearly the data is being manipulated. Not sure what that means for the market. It is likely to continue roaring until we have a material debt crisis event.
- Joe's team (Jill and esp. Hunter [who doesn't want to go to prison]) won't just throw in the towel. The President still has some power.
- Kamala is the only other viable option, since the voters voted for the Biden-Harris ticket. A) The delegates are pledged to that ticket. B) The campaign funds went to that ticket and it would likely violate campaign finance laws to just hand them to someone else. At the very least, it would result in lawsuits that would jam up the process right before election. Almost everyone analyzing this situation seems to be overlooking these two procedural/legal facts, but they seem the most important to me.
- I think it's the Blinken, Sullivan, Rice, Austin mainly running things. You can see by the way they react when Joe messes up on stage. It's their show, their words, and he's gaffing all over them. I'd add to this that there is likely a bit of a behind-the-scenes power struggle b/w these people and Biden's inner circle of Jill, Hunter, et al. But, Blinken and crew know the system much better and can outmaneuver them.
- IDK who Trump will pick, but I think you've made an interesting call. It makes sense. I personally hope for Tulsi, but she wouldn't be my first thought as to who he'd pick. I just think he has a big ego, so the mini-me thing makes sense. Though, I hope that's wrong as I think Tulsi would be great and she'd add to the ticket in a way no man of any color could, since (R)s main problem with voters right now is a female voter problem.
- Economically, who knows. There are so many things being manipulated and propped up. A Potemkin economy. Job stats. Inflation stats. Bond yields. They keep trying and people keep moving to gold to find the least risky thing. I don't think there's enough runway at this point for the economy to be a major factor in any way but the way it already is: the people think it's bad and they blame Biden and the Dems. Deflation (which is what people want) isn't going to happen before Nov.
- Finally, I also wouldn't be surprised if someone like Putin pulls an October surprise on the Dems and does something that causes upheaval (economic or otherwise) right before the election. He is strategic and he is vindictive. I also wouldn't be surprised if someone breaks with more disclosures from the Epstein case in Oct. I think the Dems are going to have done to them what they've always done to everyone else. I just don't know what that is.
Re: second point: This assumes that the swamp/DNC/DOJ have any regard for the law. There isn't much evidence of that unless it directly serves their purpose in the first place. Still, I also think it will be Kamala. Since Trump is gaining ground, many of the other potential replacements don't want to add the stink of defeat to their records this time around. Kamala has no choice at this point.
I also would like Tulsi, but expect JDV or possibly Rubio.
All stats have always been manipulated. Trump played to the stock market as a sign of success. It's doubled since 2000. Unemployment. By DJTs measures JB should be elected in a landslide.
Draft Mark Cuban to run in place of Joe. A real businessesman and not born with a silver slumlord estate in his mouth.
1. The Dems' problem is time. There is nobody else. I don't know that every state (looking at you, Wisconsin), will allow them to change their nominee based on the laws of those states.
2. I wholeheartedly believe Vance will be Trump's running mate. As much as I agree with you about Tulsi helping Trump with women, I don't think there is any chance she is picked. Based on what I've seen with Vance on TV, he will be just as willing to call out Kamala at any debate. It wouldn't be anything like how Ryan let Biden smile through their debate 12 years ago.
3. It's the Obamas. They're still in the Kalorama neighborhood in DC and refused to move out unlike every other President. They aren't going anywhere. Obama himself said something about liking the idea of being president without having to actually be president.
4. Yes. I grew up (and still work) inside the beltway. [A small anecdote about this. I grew up almost across the street from NIH. I used to work at a deli in high school and many times Fauci used to come in. He even wrote my sister-in-law's letter of reference for medical school]. My father worked for the feds. Most of my friend's parents worked for a federal agency. Many of my friends now work for the government. It's not that they explicitly want to lie, but there is so much groupthink that the government must be protected at all costs. There is a certain amount of institutionalization that happens. Every single one admits the government is bloated, most people don't do any work, it's inefficient, but nobody ever agrees the government should be smaller. Not all are Biden supporters but there is an overwhelming need to keep the gravy train running and they will automatically, without thinking about it, do what it takes to prop up the funding for their agencies.
Point 4 is really interesting. It seems to have become the de-facto mindset of corporate white collar America as well. In that case, it's more like ideological capture: government is our benevolent boss, we must protect it at all costs, even costs to our own co and livelihoods. I am shocked by how many people I encounter at work who espouse about gov't the same thing you said in #4. Some even calling for socialism or communism and more gov't regulation. Including C-suite folks. Rarely do I hear anyone talk about the need to push back or limit gov't, or even the negative role out of control gov't has on the company and our customers.
1. Unless Biden collapses (stroke, heart attack, etc.), I expect the Dems will run with him. Frankly, it doesn't matter who they run. The fix is in (see articles on Wisconsin's recent court ruling that the Clerks can put as many drop boxes as they want wherever they want). Biden won't question anything. He does what he is told when he is coherent.
2. Trump will go with Vance. In his situation, he has to value loyalty over all other considerations. He can't afford risking another Pence.
3. There is no one person running the Dems. It is a cabal. I suspect Obama and Clinton, and several from the Deep State we don't even know about. I would expect they consult closely with some foreigners, e.g. Chinese, WEF.
4. The stock market makes little sense at this point. I guess many people don't know where else to put their money, and the returns have been good, however nonsensical. When (not if) it falls, it will fall fast.
2. Trump will pick JD Vance (even though he should pick Tulsi).
3. The intelligence agencies run the country and other than a brief period under Trump, have done so for the past few decades (since JFK).
4. The economy is in the initial start of a recession and it will be a very deep one since services (70% of our economy) will go into free fall. All efforts are being made to prop it up till November, but those efforts will fail as the machines will front run reality.
1. Who do you think the Democratic nominee will be and why? If someone other than Joe Biden, when and how will Biden be replaced (i.e. will he back out or be forced out and, if the latter, how will it go down?)
The last time that the Democrats nominated the man who’d have been my pick was Grover Cleveland and the last time that the Republicans picked my favorite was Calvin Coolidge. So I rarely have a dog in the fight and certainly don’t this year. Just to reveal my biases, I don’t currently intend to vote and am happy watching from the sidelines. I have the mildest of expectations that the Democratic nominee will be Joe Biden. Why? Because it is practically tautological that one needs to be a megalomaniac to get elected president, so he’s unlikely to be reasonable about stepping aside. It is obvious that he should, but he might be the last person to notice.
If I’m wrong, then Democrats should pick a consensus alternative among the competent Democratic governors such as Colorado Gov. Jared Polis or Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. Either would be far tougher general election opponents for Trump. While not my cup of tea politically, I also admire Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and think highly of him as a person, based on my non-political interactions I’ve had with him. The Democrats can do far, far better than Biden and it would be irresponsible and political malpractice to not replace him. It is just a coordination problem to act swiftly and decisively enough to get through to him.
2. Who do you think Trump will realistically pick as his VP (not who you want to see, who he will go with) and explain the reasoning for picking them?
The conventional wisdom is that it is most likely to be J. D. Vance. Senators don’t make for great presidents. Their job is to just say things instead of get things done. It would be far better to do what the Democrats should do and pick a competent governor. Despite prior spats with Trump, Georgia’s Brian Kemp would be up to the job. Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin would be optimal – he dexterously knitted together a MAGA and non-MAGA big tent to win election in a purple state and would pick up his home state making the electoral college all but impossible for Democrats to win. So Vance is the conventional answer but maybe Trump reads this and picks Youngkin!
3. Who do you think is really calling the shots at the Biden administration right now? Jill? Hunter? The Obamas? The “deep state”? Explain your reasoning.
The Obamas don’t really think much of the Bidens and are mostly out of the loop with this White House. Young, progressive staffers are running wild. Biden ran for office as a normal Democrat. That’s what got him his party’s nomination four years ago. He was the least habitually online and the least progressive of the serious candidates. The party – especially its large and loyal black contingent – rejected the hyper woke alternatives. But Biden’s age and infirmities made him listless and easily controlled by the very progressive voices that he defeated. Liz Warren all but runs whole agencies such as the FTC and CFTC, getting her people put in the key positions to make policy.
4. Do you think there are forces holding up the stock market and macroeconomic data (i.e. the jobs numbers that keep getting revised, CPI, etc.) to get us to November? If so, do you think the bottom could fall out of the market and this data “surprisingly” in November, post-election?
Of course. Biden is propping up the present by any means necessary at any cost for the even slightly longer term. Uniformity among measurements is one of the vanishingly few legitimate government functions. The Office of Weights and Measures (OWM) promotes uniformity in U.S. weights and measures laws, regulations, and standards to achieve equity between buyers and sellers. They should handle inflation, too. Unfortunately, the government is unserious about inflation. Instead of admitting that irresponsible monetary and fiscal policy drives inflation, they keep redefining the measurement to blunt its appearance. Nearly every definitional change lowers the inflation stats. Emptying out the strategic petroleum reserve was also indicative of what this administration does for their own electoral advantage. I could complain about irresponsible fiscal policy, too, but that has become bipartisan. On wasteful spending, there is no loyal opposition. Certainly not the Republicans. The bond market and the periodic table will become the loyal opposition, but they have not yet begun to strongly object.
I'm unsure about your questions, as it's hard to get inside Trump's head. I have an observation on the recent coup to eliminate Joe. The mass psychology that enabled Joe to stay in power parallels a bubbling bull market climaxing in a sudden crash. As the bubble progresses and prices rise, more and more participants begin to understand its price level is irrational and unsustainable. However, these participants do not act on this knowledge. They stay invested because they think they and a few others are the only ones who know. As the bubble progresses, more people enter this widening knowledge circle. Eventually, virtually everyone knows the game is up. Still, no one takes action to stop the madness. They do not because they still think that not everyone knows the truth. It is what they think others think, not the truth, that matters. The climax of the fraud comes only after some event that causes everyone to realize not only that everyone knows but that everyone knows that everyone else knows! Only then do the grifters and the con men "come clean" because they have nowhere else to go. Then they feign "shock, shock" that others would deceive them so blatantly. It is better to confess stupidity or ignorance than to admit culpability for the fraud. This is precisely the pattern of the recent "unveiling" of Biden's mental incapacity. The June 27 debate was the tipping point because it was the point at which "everyone knew that everyone else knew" Joe was non compos mentis.
1. Be it Biden or Harris does not really matter at this stage, although it will one of the two.
Biden is desperate to keep his family out of jail. Hunter, James, Joe and maybe one or two more have traded in State secrets, sold influence to foreign enemies and been corrupt for decades.
By the same measure, K. Harris is simply a tool of this very corrupt regime.
2. Who will be Trump's VP pick? My vote is for JD Vance.
In addition to his obvious superior intelligence, JD is from the electoral rich state of Ohio.
It's all about the electoral college folks! Gabby is pretty, entertaining and reasonably smart, but neither a conservative nor trustworthy.
3. Who is calling the shots? It's a much bigger cabal than anyone here has yet identified.
Those pulling the strings are international in scale, so wealthy they can hide their identities and they work both sides of the aisle. In my worldly travels, I have noticed for years how similar the policies being pushed in Western Europe are to what the Democrats are pushing here. They even use the same terminology. The end objective is also the same, power in the hands of the few.
It's humourous to think the 'Obama's' are wielding power. They are simply middlemen. Does anyone really think a simple 'Community Organizer' of unclear background, with a Muslim name, is in control?
4. Now for the really fun answer. Are there 'forces' holding up the stock market? OF COURSE!
Read my answer to #3 above.
Much more importantly, Trumps is being set-up to take the fall... become the next Herbert Hoover.
The economy is being held up with toothpicks and debt. Now that Saudi Arabia has pulled the rug out from under the 'petro dollar', it's only a matter of time before the purchasing power of the dollar collapses on the world stage. There is already worldwide recognition the United States is in decline.
What is being debated is not whether economic data is manipulated, but how quickly to 'allow' this decline to happen.....gradually over years or all at once.
With Trump in the White House, 'they' will pull the plug (all at once) and blame it all on Trump.
I still feel Obama calls the shots. What is Obama holding over Joe?
Certainly the markets are being supported until the election. Powell is keeping the money creation rolling and forcing the ten year yield down and markets up.
Right?! I mean, we've had Joe Biden on the scene since 1972 and the man has never cared about transgenderism, DEI, etc. He's been a run of the mill grifter/embezzler politician. And he's been maybe the most open racist and chauvinist I've seen in politics. He's always gotten away with it b/c of his "aww shucks Joe from Scranton" routine. But, he's clearly not calling the shots in this administration, which looks an awful lot like a 3rd Obama "social justice" term.
A disclaimer... being Italian I don't even know if I am entitled to write about this... but I'll do that only because Your Country decisions will reflect heavily on mine and all the rest of the world.
And, I could always try to vote like all your illegal aliens ( joking here...).
Paging Tom Luongo's ideas I feel that Your ruling class is cobbled together but divided in two camps: the Davos globalists puppets (ruled from our own not-so-hidden Sauron here in Europe) and the Patriots.
I hate Sauron/globalists/WEF... You got the idea.
Intertwined on that is the Aipac interference/problem... Sauron's right hand.
All DNC and most RNC are on their board.
Wrote all that only to be clear of my position.
DNC still willing to try and win? I see no way for them in the current mess their masters put them.
They have all MICIMATT with them but... will be enough?
Ah, I forgot Lord MMB, the sponsor of Obama and his Dominion kingdom, but any overtly plain interference this time wouldn't be covered by any Bluto... easily being casus belli for a civil war in Your Country.
HRC is the most hated in the world, Kama second... so, Nancy's nephew?
Trump... I won a bet on him winning his first mandate, but later he deluded my expectations: how such an experienced tycoon could have been so idiot to round himself with so many traitors? Was he blind? Or only bamboozled? Or worse? A troyan horse? Don't tell me of 4-d chess please... This was the stupid idea we all believers in him used to console ourself seeing him going down in the cesspool of bad people choices he made...
Just saw the night agent season 1 on Netflix so... better he chooses carefully, very carefully... for the world's sake. Is he thinking on his own or piloted from the donors? Wish to know.
Is the in the Patriots camp? Who knows... I pray for that.
Don't forget that we have the same exact enemies... the WEF/Sauron/globalist field...
If so and he thinks so deeply that he has to try to avoid a civil war under his mandate, wish him to go with RFK Jr as Attorney General to cover any bad surprises and Tulsi as a cover over MIC should think about any "Night agent" like moves...
About who's running the WH... the dual passport holders on behalf of our common enemies... the puppeteers.
About market: please allow me (seeing it from afar)... You US people are lucky, Your US dollar still is the best looking horse in the glue factory, but don't forget to remember that it's only bits and paper...
Arrange accordingly for Your own wellbeing.
And, yes, sure, the markets are rigged like all the data, PPT at work 24/7 but I don't think that it will last till november: Ukr collapsing and KP.3 possible tsunami could be a bridge too far...
Ps: I'm only the idiot of the village, and willingly hoping to still be only that for a long time...
1. I think they're stuck with Biden more likely than not. There's an outside chance of Kamala plus someone else but I doubt it. They really think people are stupid (many are after all and have believed this charade from the beginning) and also think they can keep up the Weekend at Bernie's thing going.
2. I don't think Trump will pick Tulsi, although I would love to see that! He will do just like he's always done and pick the mind numbingly stupidest choice that people cannot even predict because it will be self-sabotage and toxic to his own success, just like he did for his entire first term with cabinet members.
3. The WEF is calling the shots for the Biden administration. They're doing this through people like Blinken, Obama, Sullivan, etc. It's pretty clear that the Biden pseudo-presidency is nothing but a front for the WEF.
4. Yes, I do think there are forces holding up the stock market and macroeconomic data until November and probably beyond. With AI and the ability to shift billions of dollars on the stock exchanges, they can make things appear however they'd like.
No candidate will get 270 delegates. Election will go to the House. Chaos ensues. I don’t think we make it thru the knot. It literally doesn’t matter who the candidates are. Shenanigans will prevail.
You perfectly encapsulated the country's situation now and moving forward. Shenanigans and hijinx aplenty. Extreme gullibility and childishness are the theme of the day
1. It will be Biden unless he croaks. Even if Biden is comatose, he remains the nominee, stays on the ballots, and everyone understands that Kamala Harris will be President in a 2nd term, and could be Acting President before that.
2. I think he picks Vance because he needs a no-nonsense guy who has the same worldview he does. However, all other commenters saying Vance is giving me pause, as the herd is often wrong.
3. All of the above. Biden's family has the most immediate influence, but the Deep State and Prog Staffers have the most influence on foreign and national security policy. Most of the Federal Government is on autopilot.
4. The market will eventually crash, but eventually can be a long time. I think it holds up until facts fundamentally change. I expect the Clade 1b MonkeyPox, which spreads by mere touch and is currently circulating in the Congo, to come here this Fall, assuming the Olympics in Paris are a super-spreading event, and that could kill the market. If Trump wins and then actually takes office (a big if), they might deliberately pull the rug out from the market. Once the yield curve normalizes, that should signal the recession is about here.
1) Tough call as of this morning. Think Biden is toast but Dems may hang onto him because no alternative - everyone else is loathed by electorate. If not "The Mummy" then "Cameltoe" (Willie Brown's Go-To Blowjob) because she checks all the boxes - no morals whatever, "poc", woman, "it's her turn".
2) Another really tough call. So hard to tell with Trump because he is so capable of making unbelievably idiotic choices. Example in this case would be picking some DS "plant" like Rubio. Hope it's Tulsi - she's by far his best insurance policy because she'd make a "better" President than anyone else "in the hunt" other than Rand. If Trump doesn't pick Tulsi I'm going with RFK, Jr. all the way.
Of course all the "stats" and markets are being manipulated manipulated to a "fare-thee-well" to maintain the illusion of "prosperity". Tha's sop for an election year. The fedgov is on "autopilot" for the duration - the usual cabal of "intelligence" agency thuggocrats and banksters are calling the shots as deemed necessary to avoid "rocking the boat" prior to November. HOWEVER - Biden's public "meltdown" has thrown a monkey wrench into the normally smooth functioning of the Deep State and we will have to await developments to see if there are enough "smarts" left in positions of some authority to stop the machinery from seizing up completely. OTW things could could real interesting real fast.
Great questions, Chris. None of us are Carnac the Magnificent but most of are conspiracy theorists based on critically thinking pattern recognition.
The first question can only be answered as to whether Democrats are more wedded to power v money. Biden has over 100 million dollars sitting in campaign coffers that can't be utilized unless he is the nominee and bows out. As that has not happened and won't until August will the Dems throw him under the bus after the convention? I say that controlling trillions of government dollars is more important than the $100 million. They will force him to step down by leaking the audiotape of his deposition or threaten his criminal family through the Justice Department litigation over the laptop. I believe that's happening in this weekend's negotiation with Obama and his elites in government and media. They will force him to stepdown this week while Trump and the RNC convention name a VP nominee to drain the media air time away from Trump. This was all pre-ordained. They will run with Harris and will put another 'karen' by the name of Whitmer on the ticket.
Your second questions regarding Trump's VP pick revolves around one priority. Trump got punked by the Pence huckster in his first term. He demands loyalty to his flank. He needs a wingman or woman. If that person helps him in a state or demographic , so much the better. If he truly wishes to drain the Deep State and IC, then the only one who makes sense is John Ratcliffe. If he picks Rubio ,then Trump clearly has been corrupted by the IC as Rubio sits on the SSCI and is part of the Gang of Eight. Vance brings him new found loyalty ,offer Silicon Valley money, Vivek is loyal and bright but has no chops with the Congress , Carson is truly loyal but brings no vitality. Donalds is loyal ,smart but is complicated as a Floridian. Bergrum is more of a cabinet spot as DOE. And while I like Tim Scott ,I think he will go with Elise Stefanik with the hope of mobilizing Gen X women and flipping NY.
Obama through his minions run the WH horizontally integrated with the Intelligence Complex. First it was Susan Rice and now Jeff Zients as Obama's in house mediator.
BlackRock through it's Aladdin trading algo platform has been manipulating this market for the benefit of Biden and Democrats but the upward rise of the faux S&P 500 is coming to a close. Just this week the Senate gave us a "tell" when they passed a bill initiated in the House that forbids insider trading for Congress. Yes Nancy Pelosi's husband can inside trade until 2027 but no member of Congress can have individual equities in their investment portfolio. That liquidating deadline is in 90 days..
I think you are missing the forest for the trees due to your normalcy bias. Who Democrats run in the “final election” isn’t particularly relevant compared to “Will there be an election” after Trump is jailed on state charges in NY, or after another brazen and openly stolen election. Democrats and their allies running the Deep State have far to much exposure to felony charges to allow a change of power, and they control all the levers of executive power while SCOTUS and RNC have already shown they will turn the other cheek. You can expect the CIA to shake out some real 3rd World type black ops as well in the form of potential black swans, and if need be Biden can just initiate one (like WW3 in ME or Europe) w his power as CinC. Just like a robber who burns down the house to destroy the evidence, these hard-eyed Neo-Marxists will do whatever is necessary to deflect blame and escape culpability. And don’t think Uniparty GOP lifers in Congress who got rich looting the treasury, vaporizing the dollar and squandering the once promised peace dividend aren’t all in for Team Arson. The US has been bifurcating at the cellular level for a long time, and the election theft you tend to ignore on 2020 (which was widespread, empirical and decisive) greatly accelerated this trend. After Biden or his stand in cracks the 100 million “vote” mark they will look straight into the camera and smile, daring America to do anything meaningful about the fraud that will be so obvious even your normalcy bias will falter. That is when the 10th Amendment must come to the fore, and Red State governors must start the painful and risky steps to decouple from Blue states who ignore the Constitution to disenfranchise every American voter and their allies in the Woke Industrial Complex. Meanwhile Americans who GAF about freedom and prosperity have to stop funding the madness with their consumer and investment dollars. Boycott Woke consumer goods. Debank your Woke depositories and NBFI’s. Divest your Woke stocks and Govt treasuries. To paraphrase Uniparty cutout George Bush 43, “If you fund a Woke ally you ARE a Woke ally”.
"Just like a robber who burns down the house to destroy the evidence, these hard-eyed Neo-Marxists will do whatever is necessary. . . And don’t think Uniparty GOP lifers in Congress . . .aren’t all in for Team Arson"
Why do you ignore Robert F. Kennedy Jr? Biden administration has done everything to impede him attending the electuions and interviews, even used lawyers to block his entry in different states. THis is mocking democrary and being autocratic from a perty that claims to be democrat(ivc). Kennedy will have a real chance to wing if he was treated equally.
They will make something up to get that black woman to go save the environment or something, then Joe will pick Gruesome to be VP, then Biden will resign for health reasons. Gruesome is then president, he pardons the bidens and picks Hitlery for VP. Voila!
I think the only thing they can offer Harris to make her go away is a SCOTUS seat. They’re probably working on one of them to retire so she can be nominated.
Biden will not willingly give up the nomination and the 25th Amendment is too messy.
Trump will choose Vance, but I wish he'd pick Tim Scott.
Obama is calling the shots through Sullivan and Blinkin, but I worry that there's be a real power struggle should we have a crisis that requires military intervention; the situation room argument over who's in charge would be the stuff of movies.
The market is getting liquidity for sure, but no one can defy the power of the real market forever. As soon as NVDA runs out of new buyers it's over. Maybe in late September?
It's a beautiful Saturday afternoon and I'm checking out and taking the 4 mile drive over to the beach but I enjoy a good spin about subjects I know nothing about because why not? Everyone seems to have an opinion.
What I think is happening now? Dr Jill/Hunter is negotiating pardons for many (think Agnew/Nixon/Ford/Rockefeller) with Clinton/Obama/DNC machine along with Wall Street. The Biden oligarchy probably want some of the $ that Biden has raised. If the family gets too greedy, there is no reason why Biden may not wake up one morning. We are in the land of Epstein, remember. The DNC will simply change the money-transfer rules to 'extenuating circumstances' and put Harris in the oval office, 1st black/female in the top slot. For a short time. The question is the VP. Witmer and Newsom are HATED by voters but dearly loved by those in charge of the money. Whoever they choose is licking boots right now because Harris will have to resign as prez (she will be rewarded AND relieved) and more musical chairs will occur. How do they win the election? Will they need a 9-11 event to create patriotic fever? It's happened before.
I like Tulsi, I do. But she is too much of an independent thinker for Trump. And a woman. Sorry guys, be realistic. She knows about the Kushner/Netanyahu wheeler-dealer relationship. She wouldn't be able to stomach turning Gaza into a massive TrumpTower overlooking the Mediterraen. Vance, on the other hand, is backed by Thiel. As in Palantir. Surveillance. Money. Affiliated with Mossad. The land of Epstein. Vance is playing in the big leagues already and he is (surprise, surprise) too 'perfect'. Trump also needs young blood. Both Wall Street and the parties know these geriatric folks need to go ( Biden/McConnell/Pelosi/Feinstein). Vance is, as I state, perfect.
3. Jill? Hunter? The Obamas? The Clintons? The “deep state”? Yes but it's bigger. You've got to keep #4 front and center. It's a business and the organization chart is subject to change. Alex Soros just received the keys to the kingdom from dad. Guess who he recently became engaged to? Not Obama's daughters. A long-time Clinton 'daughter'. She's 47, he's 38.
4. Now we get to the interesting stuff. When to sell. Or, for self-confessed speculators...when to short. That's where the real money is going to be (I made a crazy-profitable trade on Brexit...not really hard...the Brits LOVE to bet small bets. The bookie 'volume' odds were soooo favorable to exit but the big quid was 'stay'. Well, the volume betters are the voters. Just sayin'....a little bit of common sense (did I mention my professional training as a skeptical Big6 financial auditor?)
As I said, here is where it gets interesting. The new financial system isn't quite ready yet (did I mention Palentir), pesky BRICS countries and the Saudi's putting the thumbs down on stealing russian assets (I'll just withdraw everything from my accounts at the EU says only the richest prince in the world). We'll need a pandemic scare to get cash completely unacceptable for exchange, Dr Gates is working on that at the WHO. All the wheels and gears are turning faster than they anticipated because the drugs aren't working or God is intervening and enjoying this Himself (why send a flood when the humans self-implode, just kidding)
So, what to do? I'm not into 'prepping' or building a bunker. Dance, drink and be merry (exactly what my sister from Pittsburg is doing right now in Cabo...what election? she says to me last time we spoke...and yes, she has had 4 shots 'because they told me').
Me? All this intrigue! All the puzzle pieces...and, Chris, #5 must surely be 'what the heck is China/Russia/BRICS countries doing right now', and the Europeans? August is coming up. They do not KNOW how to work in August? What a wonderful time to be alive and alert!
Aside from loving this stuff, it IS summer. And, I am, because of my Heavenly Father, fortunate and have plenty of time to ponder these things. I also have time for yoga, garden, cook, long walks with my dog and plenty of beach days and lots and lots of outdoor music and plays. While I am doing these delightful activities, I know inflation has made alot folks poorer (I'm not talking homeless drug addicts). They are looking for food, clothing, places to shower (families are living cars), school supplies, etc. People need help while I speculate and enjoy the gifts God has graced me with. I'll go to Marshalls and buy lots of socks, beg the girls at the Nordstrom make up counters for samples, head over to Costco to buy some new underwear for children, toiletries.
So I ask each and everyone of you to look around you and find some way to make another person's life better today. We must always, always remember: without love we are like a clanging symbol. Go, shine your Light!
>Who do you think the Democratic nominee will be and why?
Kamala will be 'queen for a day' - acting President. This enables the Dems to credit themselves with
bringing us the first ahh SWA and black, female President. She won't run, but will instead
become Governor of CA.
Newsom is the chosen one by Deep State/IT money (very much one in the same group).
> Who do you think Trump will realistically pick as his VP
IF he listens to the right people it will be Sarah Huckabee Sanders. She can easily follow as President.
>
Who do you think is really calling the shots at the Biden administration right now?
Deep State, Team Obama (lots of overlap here) are collaborating for the time being at
running things in the White House. Deep State running NatSec/Foreign matters, Obama via
stay behind staffers the domestic stuff.
Deep State, Team Davos, Team Pelosi, Team Obama (lots of overlap here) will do anything to see Trump is NOT returned to office. Many are at grave risk of hard time should he return.will do anything to see Trump is NOT returned to office.
> Do you think there are forces holding up the stock market and macroeconomic data (i.e. the jobs numbers that keep getting revised, CPI, etc.) to get us to November?
Hilarious! The reporting on our economic health is as false as the reporting on Biden's health.
The big move is on the force citizens to participate in the economy via a US CBDC which completes the hold our police state masters have over us. As far as a bottom dropping out - two years of Trump without another biowar attack by Xi and we will have an economy to be confident in.
1. Given that Biden polls better than Harris, if the Dem powers-that-be are willing to see Harris in office, why wouldn't it just be easier to leave Biden in place until after the election and then whack him with the 25th? So I say Biden or someone other than Harris. She is real their problem, not Biden. Seems reasonable to suspect that Dems are not acquainted with game theory.
2. Realistically? Vance, Rubio, Burgham.
Wishful thinking? I'd say Tulsi, but I've learned in life you have to be careful what you wish for.
3. No one whose name we know is running things. Whoever they are, they're smarter than that. All we see are idiots who are willing to have their strings pulled for a price.
4. Are you kidding? Of course there are hidden forces -- and the not-so-hidden ones you enumerate. If "they" decide to start pulling blocks out of the Jenga tower, when it falls, it will be a quick and cruel means of burning the entire country to the ground.
Joe is going to go down kicking and screaming. It might take a force like Killary Clinton to take action. Or they give a medically induced stroke and take him out that way.
Trump will pick VP next week. I think he is going to be boring and pick Rubio. Although Vance would be the one that I think hurts him. Outside chances are - ben Carson, smart guy - probably won’t run for president himself, that way trump does not have to share the spotlight. My hope was Vivek.
It is some force of the deep state that is running the country. Obama fingerprints are all over it - but now Joe crossed Obama - the deep state is going to take him out.
The stock market is being propped up by 40% increase of M2. Money is just being dumped into the market and the government cannot stop spending.
1) Biden is not going anywhere voluntarily. Conjecture to the contrary is pissing in the wind.
2) If memory serves, in 2016, the Pence selection came out of nowhere, orchestrated by the now-imprisoned Bannon. I really have no idea who Trump’s political advisors are, so this is hard to handicap. Vance wants it badly, that’s clear. Seems to be buddies with Don Jr. I don’t know if Vance is really full MAGA or just an opportunist, but he seems like the closest thing to “full MAGA,” followed perhaps by Stefanik. Appointing Rubio or Burgum would be strange, a pivot back toward traditional GOP. Tulsi is a total wild card.
3) Day-to-day, the Deep State. That’s always been the case and might well always be the case. Politically, it seems like Hunter, Jill, and a small handful of long-time advisors.
4) Running enormous wartime government deficits is propping up the economy and stock market, but that won’t change after November. Chris, I’d love to know what you think of Grant Williams’s recent podcast with Luke Gromen. My takeaway was big deficits and currency debasement as far as the eye can see. It’s hard to have a recession when the feds are running deficits at 6-7% of GDP.
Chris - another factor to consider - no matter who wins the election, half the country will be CERTAIN the election was rigged.
Our country is so divided, and so polarized, I’m not sure what the aftermath will bring. We may not see a peaceful transfer of power like we have watched for the past 250 years.
I often make the mistake of assuming Democrats act with logic, and have “someone’s” best interests at heart. Im now convinced some % of the left want to see the US burn. Open borders? More than two genders? Sex changes for minors? Defund police? These are policies a sane person would implement to destroy a society.
I’ve been reading the history of the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia. The parallels are scary.
How far will Hunter, Jill, Blinken, Nuland, and the deep state will go to hang on to power? Especially if they’re expecting lawfare retaliation when Trump is elected? They are backed into a corner, nothing left to lose.
IMO, the odds are higher than ever in our lifetime that one or more of our 3 presidential candidates doesn’t survive to November.
1) Biden-Harris ticket to keep funding access
2) Trump-Vance for the reasons noted by multiple commenters. Gabbard would be a great choice for 2024, hopefully Trump considers who he is “teeing up” for a presidential run in 2028. This is a unique election in that Trump knows he’s running for only 1 term and he doesn’t have an incumbent VP.
3) Deep state calls the shots. Jill and Hunter keep Joe away from his cabinet. His cabinet behaves the same way Fortune 500 VPs would behave if their CEO was incapacitated. Blending every-man-for-himself with cooperation when convenient
4) Stock market is propped up by the excess liquidity we pumped into the system. Moneys gotta be put “somewhere”. Like Jim Brown commented, society sees the bubble but is riding along until they know others also see the bubble. When it bursts, it will be a Failure Cascade.
1.) Biden. Main argument against Trump is that he’s chaotic and unpredictable. Dems will circle the wagon and lose behind on old workhorse ala McCain or Bob Dole.
2.) Vance. Although it’s risky who might be appointed to OH Senate seat in his place, Vance is best insurance policy for Trump should he be taken out. Vance is most naturally suited and gifted American politician to inherit MAGA movement mantle from Trump. Trump can’t put its future at risk of petering out.
3.) Biden’s sister Val and 3 longterm aides (who have been with him for decades) are calling all of the shots. They all manage by fear and ferociously which is why so few leaks or complaints. Zero profiles in courage in the cabinet.
4.) I see a flat economy with little major movement until year 2 of Trump presidency. Everything will trade in a range until consumer market and confidence rebounds. I don’t think (other than Black Swans) that there are major issues that would inherently cause the market to drop precipitously. New President will need to tackle debt, immigration, crime and inflation which hopefully all combine to stabilize and grow economy.
If I was Trump I would select Tulsi. I don't think he will. If he selected Ben Carson it would not be bad.
Biden and Kamala both have no prayer vs Trump unless they system is rigged more than in 2020. That's possible. Newsome is a bad goveror. He'd be ghastly as president. Who do the Demon Rat Party have that has a brain and charisma? I have no idea.
1. Democratic nominee is likely going to be Kamala. There does not seem to be any way to get her to step aside. She checks a lot of boxes for Democrats and is the current VP. She is massively ambitious, so I just don't see her opting to step aside. I think Biden bows out of the election late July early August, which gives the party time to name and support the new candidate.
2. Trump likely picks JD Vance as he is a supporter of Trump, and isn't so well known it will take the spotlight away.
3. I think the "deep state" is largely calling the shots. Jill/Hunter only have power in the sense that they are related to Joe. There are just too many other powerful people on the hill for any one person to be calling all the shots. Rather I think it is a combination of many.
4. Yes, I think the Fed and govt. work in coordination to keep the market afloat until at least November. The market will eventually tank though, and my guess would be early next year when sentiment is low, past holidays, and the elected President can just let the economy take a bath all at once.
This is post assassination attempt, so maybe a bit unfair to the previous posters.
1. Biden will be the nominee. After the incredible leadership moment Tman exhibited after the attempt on his life, could any putz Dimowit hold a candle to that magnificent display of defiance? No. Gruesome Newsom is a putz. Kamala the Kackling Kamel is a disgusting DEI hire - Sarah Palin makes her look like a bumbling idiot…wait, we don’t need Governor Palin for that.
2. Mr. Pence was not a “threat” to Tman; he was “background” material, from the heartland, a former governor, and certainly not someone to “steal” the limelight from Tman. Solid choice, though “Establishment Republican “. Today, that ER “party” is dead…the new Republican party is of the people. Further, Tman will be a one term President, which means that who he chooses must be someone who will be electable after his term ends…IF his ego does not get in the way of doing what is best for the country. Many people argue that Tman does what is best for himself, but name a decision he made during his Presidency that was bad for our country. Ok, tariffs on China…name another one. So, I’m going with JD Vance. Heartland pick. Senator from Ohio. Like President Nixon, came from a poor background which means he can appeal to “the common man”. Like Nixon, no elected office before being elected to Congress. He poses no “ego” threat to Tman. The only downside is that they are white men…yes, Tulsi Gabbard would be a beautiful (pun intended) choice.
3. This is easy. Oblamo “if you like your doctor you can keep your doctor” and his minions. SoS Blinky Blinken who also doubled as a Russia collusion operative. Susan Rice…how many times has she been to the WH? Or does she have an office elsewhere? There’s more, but what a bullet We the People dodged when the Senate refused Merrick Garland a SCOTUS seat. But I digress.
4. Yes, the government is fudging numbers (ok, lying). If President Bumbles wins, we will see a bad downside in the narket. Tman brings hope and positivity. Biden is an elder being abused but wants to remain for his family (Hunter). Tman could correct that with clemency which would astonish Libtards, Dimowirts, and Leftists. Yugely! But, the market is somehow being manipulated…one only has to observe the insane antics/valuations of Tesla to say - WTF?!
"....Real interesting real fast." (Hit that nail on the head!)
EPIC CLUSTERFUCK by Secret Service. 140 yards away on a fucking rooftop. That's FUCKING BLATANT INCOMPETENCE AND BEYOND. And to top it off Trump's SS detail has apparently been requesting additional resources that have been refused by Homeland (in)Security. If true - THAT'S A FUCKING "SMOKING GUN". No wonder Dementia Joe apparently went ballistic on his staff yesterday - THEY MISSED.
1. Biden because it’s too late to change “the steal” mechanism already in motion.
2. Vance because he is loyal. DeSantis would have been a good choice and I never have understood why Trump went after him so hard without needing to do so. The name calling turns off many voters.
3. Obama 100%
4. Agree with a prior comment that Trump is being set up on the economy. Hopefully he’ll have enough time and a congressional majority to turn it around rapidly.
Trump’s first term cabinet and advisor picks were a disaster. He seemingly didn’t learn his lesson when he added Barr, Wray, and others.
1) Biden is an optics problem; to steal an election you must maintain plausibility, and everybody sees that he's unhealthy and volatile. He steps down, Kamala Harris steps aside. One scenario that would suck the air out of everything else and deliver plausibility: Michelle Obama comes out as Big Mike, becomes first transgender President.
2) Ben Carson or Tulsi Gabbard, both deliver an electoral victory. JD Vance probably wouldn't, and would hurt Trump optics. Kind of academic, as certain DS types cannot allow Trump victory unless per #3 below.
3) Biden's inner circle hasn't changed since 1980. They're telling him to hold on, but it's not their choice, is it? China, Israel, DS, WEF all have veto powers. Ultimately they could shift support to Trump.
4) China's property bubble broke, scores of banks failing. Yes, stock markets are outperforming via crack-up booms and that part could go on until November. Powell already hinted at rate cuts, which will signal the flight to non-perishables. Serious US hyperinflation and supply chain problems hitting right now. On balance I do not see now we make it until November.
1. The Democrat voter fraud apparatus is now so huge that they could elect Jeffrey Epstein as President if they wanted to. Which explains the Biden family’s refusal to step down. They know even in his vegetative state, he will be elected.
2. Given #1 above, does it matter?
3. The Deep State operates on its own. No one can defy them. We saw part of it under Trump and now it’s obvious under Biden.
4. All of the financial data produced by the government is falsified. The subsequent revisions to the jobs numbers, always downward, eventually show the truth- there is no jobs growth. And the PCE and CPI numbers are so far afield of what the average American is experiencing that they no longer measure inflation but only how effective is the government brainwashing efforts. These lies will continue to be streamed until November to support the “surprising” win for the Democrat candidate. And what happens financially after the election is anyone’s guess as the cracks in the foundation are unrepairable. It’s only a matter of time until it all comes tumbling down..
1. Dem nominee will be Biden, but he will dump the lead brick Camel-a at convention. Gretchen Whitmer makes most sense as a swing state and has to be a woman. Everyone knows Biden might not make 6 mo. In new term so the talk and promo would all be around vp. Whitmer a party loyalist and proven willing to shut down economy. Biden won’t quit as hunter has to be guilty before he can be pardoned.
2. Trump has to pick someone who could actually still carry out his agenda, should he be killed, which unfortunately is a possibility that the left would stoop to. So should be Vance, but I think likely will be burgram as he won’t steal any limelight from Trump; the cardinal sin.
He cannot risk losing his base by doing gabbard , Rubio and Carson is too sleepy in presentation,
Scott would be good but I don’t see presidential as of yet but would help black vote.
3 if Obama and soros were really calling the shots , Biden would be out already. Biden doesn’t want a “ boy” telling him what to do. Jill and advisors are running things.
4. Yes, data is clearly being fudged then revised toward reality. Reality is that I now go to Denny’s or Wendy’s for date night with wife instead of any other restaurant spend $35 vs 60. And menu has improved…. Some good burgers now. They will crash it IF Trump wins.
5. Most important question not asked. Will Dems cheat to win and part 2, will they win by cheating?
YES and depends on how big the cheat is needed but they sure will try. Has there ever been a commie takeover where, once two years have past, that there is ever a free election again without a coup?
(4) Unfortunately I think we live in a completely artificial economy. The Fed does all sorts of tomfoolery to manipulate commodities, bonds, money, and equities. They have many of the best and brightest financial quants and AI engineers working for them at the Fed. When you look at the price of copper, and the ratio between consumption and production, things don’t quite add up. When you look at almost all of the SP 500 gains coming from the mag 7, or even just the terrific 3, you also do some head scratching. When your mental model of the grocery checkout indicates that you are now paying 50% more for similar grocery trips than before 2020, you realize that the CPI is bs (and of course it would be, the government has every incentive to lie and through hedonic adjustments can launder away real inflation) I think this is the result of MMT. Modern Monetary Theory is the operating paradigm for all of the great economics schools at present (with the exception of some at UoChicago). MMT, on its face, is the dumbest shit that has ever been produced. It is defined by investopedia as, “Modern Monetary Theory is a macroeconomic model positing that countries that issue their own currencies, such as the U.S., are not constrained in their spending. Proponents of MMT argue that such countries can't default on the securities they issue, as they can simply print or issue more currency.” If you go just one step more, and say, we can create money all over the place to achieve our policy objectives, without paying consequences, then you get to our macroeconomy. The Fed hypothecates funds to make sure that the stock market doesn’t crash, to make sure the price of commodities is appropriate and that the bond market isn’t too rich. This is not QE, this is not Fiscal stimulus, this is the end stage of MMT where there are no market forces, only those on the inside of the paradigm and those on the outside. I predict we will continue to see more and more inflation, because guess what? Monetary creation=inflation. What does this mean for investors? Keep picking the predetermined winners. Mr. Charlie Munger said, “show me the incentive, and I’ll show you the outcome.” Investors have already ascertained the chosen elite, and they will keep piling on all the way to the moon because true market forces are so weak.
Biden "suddenly" loses it and Kamala "excepts" the reigns. Michael (Michelle Obama) VP. Now Obama can really work his magic of destroying the country and if impatient, removes Kamala completely.
Yes, bigger deep states control the strings but Obama still has a power hold on things. His goal is to run the world (NATO?) after the US is destroyed. He gets elevated to top world leader (anti-christ) for doing such a good job.
I love Tulsi and despite comments she isn't conservative enough, who the hell is anymore? Certainly not those in congress. She and Green are the only ones with balls to stand up against those weak congressmen.
Everything is a lie today and so is the market. The sooner we get reset the sooner sanity has a chance.
-Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee. He will not drop out.
-Marco Rubio will be Trumps VP pick. Trump wants someone totally loyal and someone who won't outshine him. Rubio will fill the bill. I prefer Gabbard as you do.
-Calling the shots are most likely those in closest proximity to Biden. Includes Jill, John Kirby and Blinken and others I am sure.
-I do think things will be allowed to fall apart in the economy in the weeks and months after the election. If Trump is elected the Fed and the Deep State will have a hand in this. If Biden stays in they will try to mange it better but things will fall apart anyway.
As yet no murmurs of anyone stepping up to replace Biden but a ticket like Shapiro/Whitmer (or vice versa) would be strong. Buttigieg has the qualifications but I don't know if the US can handle a gay president. I've even seen memes calling for Liz Cheney to cross party lines.
Buttigieg has the qualifications? In what world does that make sense? He was a poor to middling mayor of a mid size city in Indiana and he’s been a complete waste as Transportation secretary.
As to who is calling the shots (Jill? Hunter? The Obamas? The “deep state”?). Until Joe's debate all of them were working to call the shots with informal divisions of focus. Power vacuums are filled by opportunists and they all are. They loosely cooperate since they all have something to gain by not fighting too much with each other. They are now fighting with each other which will make manipulations and divisions more apparent. They either need to knock Joe out of the 2024 election quickly or quickly realign their positions. The more they actively they continue to squabble the more likely pieces of dirt they can't fully clean up by election day will appear. A more minor detail is that despite his decline there are still some shot's called by Joe although he is now far more subject to guided manipulation. Joe, to an increasingly limited degree, provides a speed limiter on the gradual seizure of power by those surrounding and guiding Joe.
1. Michelle Obama - I believe that she has the best chance to win b/c she is not directly saddled with the baggage of the Biden/Harris administration, and that she has the potential to re-kindle the enthusiasm of the Democratic Party in a way that Kamala Harris lacks. Plus she is the only potential candidate that could supersede Kamala by matching her identity criteria.
2. Glenn Youngkin - Virginia could be the swing state that seals the election for Trump. Plus governors have more proven capability in the executive leadership category than senators or congresspeople. If not Youngkin, then Doug Burghum.
3. Jeff Zients - the chief of staff controls what goes on in the White House to the degree that it requires any policy knowledge. Jill may have some "gatekeeper" and campaign strategy influence, but I doubt that she weighs in on policy decisions. The Obama's probably control Zients.
4. Fiscal spending has held up the economy and will continue to prevent it from crashing. Monetary policy is starting to loosen and will soon be a major support for the economy as well. Gold should continue to do very well as the medium and long-term outlook for inflation is locked in.
Breaking news—it seems 2024 is going to see a confluence of multiple issues: Elon musk allegedly made a sizable contribution to Trump affiliated PAC. Interesting that musk sees a greater threat from the government vs the inevitable alienation this will cause amongst a large portion of his Tesla customer base.
1. I still think Joe is the heavy favorite for the nomination. All indications are that he wants to stay in and the opposition has been disorganized with limited time before the convention.
2. Still kind of a wild card situation here because Trump is unpredictable and no VP candidate stands out above the others IMO. I'll go with Vance, because he is connected to $ interests and seems willing to do whatever Trump wants him to.
3. "Calling the shots" is kind of a broad statement. I don't think Obama has any influence inside the administration. Jill/Hunter/family calling the shots regarding major campaign decisions. Close group of advisors calling governing decisions.
4. No manipulation of the numbers IMO keeping the stock market up. If Biden gets the nomination, I do think we'll see some early (September/October) moves out of renewable energy and potentially international focused stocks over policy expectations from a Trump admin.
1. Who do you think the Democratic nominee will be and why?
Despite speculation, I believe Joe Biden will remain the Democratic nominee. Biden's incumbency offers several strategic advantages: the power of the sitting president to drive media narratives, leverage executive actions, and consolidate party support. Replacing Biden would require an extraordinary and potentially divisive process within the party. I think their leadership wishes to avoid fracturing the party. They want to focus on the general election. Biden will argue that his experience, especially in foreign affairs is crucial in countering a potential Trump candidacy, framing the election as a choice between continuity and international chaos.
2. Who do you think Trump will realistically pick as his VP and explain the reasoning for picking them?
Vivek Ramaswamy could be a strategic pick for Donald Trump as his VP. Ramaswamy, a successful entrepreneur and author, brings a fresh perspective and aligns well with Trump's outsider image. His articulate defense of free market principles and his critique of corporate wokeism resonate with Trump's base. Additionally, Ramaswamy's relative youth and energy could help balance concerns about Trump's age and appeal to younger voters. He is also a person of color, which could help mitigate some of the accusations of racism that have been leveled against Trump and broaden the ticket's appeal. Ramaswamy's lack of extensive political experience could be seen as an advantage, emphasizing a break from career politicians and reinforcing Trump's anti-establishment message.
3. Who do you think is really calling the shots at the Biden administration right now?
While President Biden is the public face of his administration, I believe that significant influence comes from a network of seasoned political operatives and advisors. There is little doubt that longstanding Democratic power players, including those from the Obama era, continue to exert influence behind the scenes. This network ensures continuity of liberal policies aligned with their vision, which leans towards interventionist and regulatory approaches, rather than purely driven by Biden himself.
4. Do you think there are forces holding up the stock market and macroeconomic data to get us to November?
Yes. There are clearly efforts afoot to maintain the favorable economic narrative leading up to the elections. The Federal Reserve's monetary policies have been critical in supporting asset prices and providing liquidity to the market. Additionally, there have been instances of economic data, such as job numbers and inflation reports, being revised post-release, which raises questions about the initial portrayal of economic health. Analysts like Peter Schiff and organizations such as the Mises Institute have pointed out the potential manipulation of economic indicators to create a temporary sense of stability. This facade could indeed crumble post-election, revealing underlying economic weaknesses that were temporarily masked, leading to a market correction and more realistic economic assessments.
I'll take a stab at it, Chris. Since Joe was all worked up in Detroit last night, he is not going anywhere willingly. He is the nominee. There have been no rumblings of 25th Amendment, which is the only way they could remove him, and then Kamala becomes the President and presumptive nominee.
The administration is being run by the loyalists from his first campaign and Obama operatives, namely Blinken, Sullivan and Rice. I think it makes more sense now that Lloyd Austin dipped out at the end of last year without telling anyone he was having surgery, because no one tells anyone anything in this administration--no duty to inform. But I bet Blinken, Sullivan and Rice knew Austin was having surgery.
I think Trump will pick JD Vance as his younger, mini-me, putting him in place to win in 2028 and continue the MAGA movement. See the story about how badly Rupert Murdock is trashing JD and pushing Bergum. Also, Trump likes the ring of two single syllable words--"Trump-Vance"
DK on the market, but clearly the data is being manipulated. Not sure what that means for the market. It is likely to continue roaring until we have a material debt crisis event.
my 2c
Agree with pretty much all. To add my 2 cents:
- Joe's team (Jill and esp. Hunter [who doesn't want to go to prison]) won't just throw in the towel. The President still has some power.
- Kamala is the only other viable option, since the voters voted for the Biden-Harris ticket. A) The delegates are pledged to that ticket. B) The campaign funds went to that ticket and it would likely violate campaign finance laws to just hand them to someone else. At the very least, it would result in lawsuits that would jam up the process right before election. Almost everyone analyzing this situation seems to be overlooking these two procedural/legal facts, but they seem the most important to me.
- I think it's the Blinken, Sullivan, Rice, Austin mainly running things. You can see by the way they react when Joe messes up on stage. It's their show, their words, and he's gaffing all over them. I'd add to this that there is likely a bit of a behind-the-scenes power struggle b/w these people and Biden's inner circle of Jill, Hunter, et al. But, Blinken and crew know the system much better and can outmaneuver them.
- IDK who Trump will pick, but I think you've made an interesting call. It makes sense. I personally hope for Tulsi, but she wouldn't be my first thought as to who he'd pick. I just think he has a big ego, so the mini-me thing makes sense. Though, I hope that's wrong as I think Tulsi would be great and she'd add to the ticket in a way no man of any color could, since (R)s main problem with voters right now is a female voter problem.
- Economically, who knows. There are so many things being manipulated and propped up. A Potemkin economy. Job stats. Inflation stats. Bond yields. They keep trying and people keep moving to gold to find the least risky thing. I don't think there's enough runway at this point for the economy to be a major factor in any way but the way it already is: the people think it's bad and they blame Biden and the Dems. Deflation (which is what people want) isn't going to happen before Nov.
- Finally, I also wouldn't be surprised if someone like Putin pulls an October surprise on the Dems and does something that causes upheaval (economic or otherwise) right before the election. He is strategic and he is vindictive. I also wouldn't be surprised if someone breaks with more disclosures from the Epstein case in Oct. I think the Dems are going to have done to them what they've always done to everyone else. I just don't know what that is.
Re: second point: This assumes that the swamp/DNC/DOJ have any regard for the law. There isn't much evidence of that unless it directly serves their purpose in the first place. Still, I also think it will be Kamala. Since Trump is gaining ground, many of the other potential replacements don't want to add the stink of defeat to their records this time around. Kamala has no choice at this point.
I also would like Tulsi, but expect JDV or possibly Rubio.
Thoughtful
Burghum has money and doesn't threaten Trump.
Joe's wife, just like every wife except Hillary.
All stats have always been manipulated. Trump played to the stock market as a sign of success. It's doubled since 2000. Unemployment. By DJTs measures JB should be elected in a landslide.
Draft Mark Cuban to run in place of Joe. A real businessesman and not born with a silver slumlord estate in his mouth.
1. The Dems' problem is time. There is nobody else. I don't know that every state (looking at you, Wisconsin), will allow them to change their nominee based on the laws of those states.
2. I wholeheartedly believe Vance will be Trump's running mate. As much as I agree with you about Tulsi helping Trump with women, I don't think there is any chance she is picked. Based on what I've seen with Vance on TV, he will be just as willing to call out Kamala at any debate. It wouldn't be anything like how Ryan let Biden smile through their debate 12 years ago.
3. It's the Obamas. They're still in the Kalorama neighborhood in DC and refused to move out unlike every other President. They aren't going anywhere. Obama himself said something about liking the idea of being president without having to actually be president.
4. Yes. I grew up (and still work) inside the beltway. [A small anecdote about this. I grew up almost across the street from NIH. I used to work at a deli in high school and many times Fauci used to come in. He even wrote my sister-in-law's letter of reference for medical school]. My father worked for the feds. Most of my friend's parents worked for a federal agency. Many of my friends now work for the government. It's not that they explicitly want to lie, but there is so much groupthink that the government must be protected at all costs. There is a certain amount of institutionalization that happens. Every single one admits the government is bloated, most people don't do any work, it's inefficient, but nobody ever agrees the government should be smaller. Not all are Biden supporters but there is an overwhelming need to keep the gravy train running and they will automatically, without thinking about it, do what it takes to prop up the funding for their agencies.
Point 4 is really interesting. It seems to have become the de-facto mindset of corporate white collar America as well. In that case, it's more like ideological capture: government is our benevolent boss, we must protect it at all costs, even costs to our own co and livelihoods. I am shocked by how many people I encounter at work who espouse about gov't the same thing you said in #4. Some even calling for socialism or communism and more gov't regulation. Including C-suite folks. Rarely do I hear anyone talk about the need to push back or limit gov't, or even the negative role out of control gov't has on the company and our customers.
1. Unless Biden collapses (stroke, heart attack, etc.), I expect the Dems will run with him. Frankly, it doesn't matter who they run. The fix is in (see articles on Wisconsin's recent court ruling that the Clerks can put as many drop boxes as they want wherever they want). Biden won't question anything. He does what he is told when he is coherent.
2. Trump will go with Vance. In his situation, he has to value loyalty over all other considerations. He can't afford risking another Pence.
3. There is no one person running the Dems. It is a cabal. I suspect Obama and Clinton, and several from the Deep State we don't even know about. I would expect they consult closely with some foreigners, e.g. Chinese, WEF.
4. The stock market makes little sense at this point. I guess many people don't know where else to put their money, and the returns have been good, however nonsensical. When (not if) it falls, it will fall fast.
1. Joe Biden will be the nominee.
2. Trump will pick JD Vance (even though he should pick Tulsi).
3. The intelligence agencies run the country and other than a brief period under Trump, have done so for the past few decades (since JFK).
4. The economy is in the initial start of a recession and it will be a very deep one since services (70% of our economy) will go into free fall. All efforts are being made to prop it up till November, but those efforts will fail as the machines will front run reality.
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1. Who do you think the Democratic nominee will be and why? If someone other than Joe Biden, when and how will Biden be replaced (i.e. will he back out or be forced out and, if the latter, how will it go down?)
The last time that the Democrats nominated the man who’d have been my pick was Grover Cleveland and the last time that the Republicans picked my favorite was Calvin Coolidge. So I rarely have a dog in the fight and certainly don’t this year. Just to reveal my biases, I don’t currently intend to vote and am happy watching from the sidelines. I have the mildest of expectations that the Democratic nominee will be Joe Biden. Why? Because it is practically tautological that one needs to be a megalomaniac to get elected president, so he’s unlikely to be reasonable about stepping aside. It is obvious that he should, but he might be the last person to notice.
If I’m wrong, then Democrats should pick a consensus alternative among the competent Democratic governors such as Colorado Gov. Jared Polis or Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. Either would be far tougher general election opponents for Trump. While not my cup of tea politically, I also admire Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and think highly of him as a person, based on my non-political interactions I’ve had with him. The Democrats can do far, far better than Biden and it would be irresponsible and political malpractice to not replace him. It is just a coordination problem to act swiftly and decisively enough to get through to him.
2. Who do you think Trump will realistically pick as his VP (not who you want to see, who he will go with) and explain the reasoning for picking them?
The conventional wisdom is that it is most likely to be J. D. Vance. Senators don’t make for great presidents. Their job is to just say things instead of get things done. It would be far better to do what the Democrats should do and pick a competent governor. Despite prior spats with Trump, Georgia’s Brian Kemp would be up to the job. Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin would be optimal – he dexterously knitted together a MAGA and non-MAGA big tent to win election in a purple state and would pick up his home state making the electoral college all but impossible for Democrats to win. So Vance is the conventional answer but maybe Trump reads this and picks Youngkin!
3. Who do you think is really calling the shots at the Biden administration right now? Jill? Hunter? The Obamas? The “deep state”? Explain your reasoning.
The Obamas don’t really think much of the Bidens and are mostly out of the loop with this White House. Young, progressive staffers are running wild. Biden ran for office as a normal Democrat. That’s what got him his party’s nomination four years ago. He was the least habitually online and the least progressive of the serious candidates. The party – especially its large and loyal black contingent – rejected the hyper woke alternatives. But Biden’s age and infirmities made him listless and easily controlled by the very progressive voices that he defeated. Liz Warren all but runs whole agencies such as the FTC and CFTC, getting her people put in the key positions to make policy.
4. Do you think there are forces holding up the stock market and macroeconomic data (i.e. the jobs numbers that keep getting revised, CPI, etc.) to get us to November? If so, do you think the bottom could fall out of the market and this data “surprisingly” in November, post-election?
Of course. Biden is propping up the present by any means necessary at any cost for the even slightly longer term. Uniformity among measurements is one of the vanishingly few legitimate government functions. The Office of Weights and Measures (OWM) promotes uniformity in U.S. weights and measures laws, regulations, and standards to achieve equity between buyers and sellers. They should handle inflation, too. Unfortunately, the government is unserious about inflation. Instead of admitting that irresponsible monetary and fiscal policy drives inflation, they keep redefining the measurement to blunt its appearance. Nearly every definitional change lowers the inflation stats. Emptying out the strategic petroleum reserve was also indicative of what this administration does for their own electoral advantage. I could complain about irresponsible fiscal policy, too, but that has become bipartisan. On wasteful spending, there is no loyal opposition. Certainly not the Republicans. The bond market and the periodic table will become the loyal opposition, but they have not yet begun to strongly object.
I'm unsure about your questions, as it's hard to get inside Trump's head. I have an observation on the recent coup to eliminate Joe. The mass psychology that enabled Joe to stay in power parallels a bubbling bull market climaxing in a sudden crash. As the bubble progresses and prices rise, more and more participants begin to understand its price level is irrational and unsustainable. However, these participants do not act on this knowledge. They stay invested because they think they and a few others are the only ones who know. As the bubble progresses, more people enter this widening knowledge circle. Eventually, virtually everyone knows the game is up. Still, no one takes action to stop the madness. They do not because they still think that not everyone knows the truth. It is what they think others think, not the truth, that matters. The climax of the fraud comes only after some event that causes everyone to realize not only that everyone knows but that everyone knows that everyone else knows! Only then do the grifters and the con men "come clean" because they have nowhere else to go. Then they feign "shock, shock" that others would deceive them so blatantly. It is better to confess stupidity or ignorance than to admit culpability for the fraud. This is precisely the pattern of the recent "unveiling" of Biden's mental incapacity. The June 27 debate was the tipping point because it was the point at which "everyone knew that everyone else knew" Joe was non compos mentis.
Great article with equally great commentary.
Now to your questions:
1. Be it Biden or Harris does not really matter at this stage, although it will one of the two.
Biden is desperate to keep his family out of jail. Hunter, James, Joe and maybe one or two more have traded in State secrets, sold influence to foreign enemies and been corrupt for decades.
By the same measure, K. Harris is simply a tool of this very corrupt regime.
2. Who will be Trump's VP pick? My vote is for JD Vance.
In addition to his obvious superior intelligence, JD is from the electoral rich state of Ohio.
It's all about the electoral college folks! Gabby is pretty, entertaining and reasonably smart, but neither a conservative nor trustworthy.
3. Who is calling the shots? It's a much bigger cabal than anyone here has yet identified.
Those pulling the strings are international in scale, so wealthy they can hide their identities and they work both sides of the aisle. In my worldly travels, I have noticed for years how similar the policies being pushed in Western Europe are to what the Democrats are pushing here. They even use the same terminology. The end objective is also the same, power in the hands of the few.
It's humourous to think the 'Obama's' are wielding power. They are simply middlemen. Does anyone really think a simple 'Community Organizer' of unclear background, with a Muslim name, is in control?
4. Now for the really fun answer. Are there 'forces' holding up the stock market? OF COURSE!
Read my answer to #3 above.
Much more importantly, Trumps is being set-up to take the fall... become the next Herbert Hoover.
The economy is being held up with toothpicks and debt. Now that Saudi Arabia has pulled the rug out from under the 'petro dollar', it's only a matter of time before the purchasing power of the dollar collapses on the world stage. There is already worldwide recognition the United States is in decline.
What is being debated is not whether economic data is manipulated, but how quickly to 'allow' this decline to happen.....gradually over years or all at once.
With Trump in the White House, 'they' will pull the plug (all at once) and blame it all on Trump.
I still feel Obama calls the shots. What is Obama holding over Joe?
Certainly the markets are being supported until the election. Powell is keeping the money creation rolling and forcing the ten year yield down and markets up.
Right?! I mean, we've had Joe Biden on the scene since 1972 and the man has never cared about transgenderism, DEI, etc. He's been a run of the mill grifter/embezzler politician. And he's been maybe the most open racist and chauvinist I've seen in politics. He's always gotten away with it b/c of his "aww shucks Joe from Scranton" routine. But, he's clearly not calling the shots in this administration, which looks an awful lot like a 3rd Obama "social justice" term.
A disclaimer... being Italian I don't even know if I am entitled to write about this... but I'll do that only because Your Country decisions will reflect heavily on mine and all the rest of the world.
And, I could always try to vote like all your illegal aliens ( joking here...).
Paging Tom Luongo's ideas I feel that Your ruling class is cobbled together but divided in two camps: the Davos globalists puppets (ruled from our own not-so-hidden Sauron here in Europe) and the Patriots.
I hate Sauron/globalists/WEF... You got the idea.
Intertwined on that is the Aipac interference/problem... Sauron's right hand.
All DNC and most RNC are on their board.
Wrote all that only to be clear of my position.
DNC still willing to try and win? I see no way for them in the current mess their masters put them.
They have all MICIMATT with them but... will be enough?
Ah, I forgot Lord MMB, the sponsor of Obama and his Dominion kingdom, but any overtly plain interference this time wouldn't be covered by any Bluto... easily being casus belli for a civil war in Your Country.
HRC is the most hated in the world, Kama second... so, Nancy's nephew?
Trump... I won a bet on him winning his first mandate, but later he deluded my expectations: how such an experienced tycoon could have been so idiot to round himself with so many traitors? Was he blind? Or only bamboozled? Or worse? A troyan horse? Don't tell me of 4-d chess please... This was the stupid idea we all believers in him used to console ourself seeing him going down in the cesspool of bad people choices he made...
Just saw the night agent season 1 on Netflix so... better he chooses carefully, very carefully... for the world's sake. Is he thinking on his own or piloted from the donors? Wish to know.
Is the in the Patriots camp? Who knows... I pray for that.
Don't forget that we have the same exact enemies... the WEF/Sauron/globalist field...
If so and he thinks so deeply that he has to try to avoid a civil war under his mandate, wish him to go with RFK Jr as Attorney General to cover any bad surprises and Tulsi as a cover over MIC should think about any "Night agent" like moves...
About who's running the WH... the dual passport holders on behalf of our common enemies... the puppeteers.
About market: please allow me (seeing it from afar)... You US people are lucky, Your US dollar still is the best looking horse in the glue factory, but don't forget to remember that it's only bits and paper...
Arrange accordingly for Your own wellbeing.
And, yes, sure, the markets are rigged like all the data, PPT at work 24/7 but I don't think that it will last till november: Ukr collapsing and KP.3 possible tsunami could be a bridge too far...
Ps: I'm only the idiot of the village, and willingly hoping to still be only that for a long time...
1. I think they're stuck with Biden more likely than not. There's an outside chance of Kamala plus someone else but I doubt it. They really think people are stupid (many are after all and have believed this charade from the beginning) and also think they can keep up the Weekend at Bernie's thing going.
2. I don't think Trump will pick Tulsi, although I would love to see that! He will do just like he's always done and pick the mind numbingly stupidest choice that people cannot even predict because it will be self-sabotage and toxic to his own success, just like he did for his entire first term with cabinet members.
3. The WEF is calling the shots for the Biden administration. They're doing this through people like Blinken, Obama, Sullivan, etc. It's pretty clear that the Biden pseudo-presidency is nothing but a front for the WEF.
4. Yes, I do think there are forces holding up the stock market and macroeconomic data until November and probably beyond. With AI and the ability to shift billions of dollars on the stock exchanges, they can make things appear however they'd like.
No candidate will get 270 delegates. Election will go to the House. Chaos ensues. I don’t think we make it thru the knot. It literally doesn’t matter who the candidates are. Shenanigans will prevail.
You perfectly encapsulated the country's situation now and moving forward. Shenanigans and hijinx aplenty. Extreme gullibility and childishness are the theme of the day
1. It will be Biden unless he croaks. Even if Biden is comatose, he remains the nominee, stays on the ballots, and everyone understands that Kamala Harris will be President in a 2nd term, and could be Acting President before that.
2. I think he picks Vance because he needs a no-nonsense guy who has the same worldview he does. However, all other commenters saying Vance is giving me pause, as the herd is often wrong.
3. All of the above. Biden's family has the most immediate influence, but the Deep State and Prog Staffers have the most influence on foreign and national security policy. Most of the Federal Government is on autopilot.
4. The market will eventually crash, but eventually can be a long time. I think it holds up until facts fundamentally change. I expect the Clade 1b MonkeyPox, which spreads by mere touch and is currently circulating in the Congo, to come here this Fall, assuming the Olympics in Paris are a super-spreading event, and that could kill the market. If Trump wins and then actually takes office (a big if), they might deliberately pull the rug out from the market. Once the yield curve normalizes, that should signal the recession is about here.
Sure Chris - I'll take a shot:
1) Tough call as of this morning. Think Biden is toast but Dems may hang onto him because no alternative - everyone else is loathed by electorate. If not "The Mummy" then "Cameltoe" (Willie Brown's Go-To Blowjob) because she checks all the boxes - no morals whatever, "poc", woman, "it's her turn".
2) Another really tough call. So hard to tell with Trump because he is so capable of making unbelievably idiotic choices. Example in this case would be picking some DS "plant" like Rubio. Hope it's Tulsi - she's by far his best insurance policy because she'd make a "better" President than anyone else "in the hunt" other than Rand. If Trump doesn't pick Tulsi I'm going with RFK, Jr. all the way.
Of course all the "stats" and markets are being manipulated manipulated to a "fare-thee-well" to maintain the illusion of "prosperity". Tha's sop for an election year. The fedgov is on "autopilot" for the duration - the usual cabal of "intelligence" agency thuggocrats and banksters are calling the shots as deemed necessary to avoid "rocking the boat" prior to November. HOWEVER - Biden's public "meltdown" has thrown a monkey wrench into the normally smooth functioning of the Deep State and we will have to await developments to see if there are enough "smarts" left in positions of some authority to stop the machinery from seizing up completely. OTW things could could real interesting real fast.
Great questions, Chris. None of us are Carnac the Magnificent but most of are conspiracy theorists based on critically thinking pattern recognition.
The first question can only be answered as to whether Democrats are more wedded to power v money. Biden has over 100 million dollars sitting in campaign coffers that can't be utilized unless he is the nominee and bows out. As that has not happened and won't until August will the Dems throw him under the bus after the convention? I say that controlling trillions of government dollars is more important than the $100 million. They will force him to step down by leaking the audiotape of his deposition or threaten his criminal family through the Justice Department litigation over the laptop. I believe that's happening in this weekend's negotiation with Obama and his elites in government and media. They will force him to stepdown this week while Trump and the RNC convention name a VP nominee to drain the media air time away from Trump. This was all pre-ordained. They will run with Harris and will put another 'karen' by the name of Whitmer on the ticket.
Your second questions regarding Trump's VP pick revolves around one priority. Trump got punked by the Pence huckster in his first term. He demands loyalty to his flank. He needs a wingman or woman. If that person helps him in a state or demographic , so much the better. If he truly wishes to drain the Deep State and IC, then the only one who makes sense is John Ratcliffe. If he picks Rubio ,then Trump clearly has been corrupted by the IC as Rubio sits on the SSCI and is part of the Gang of Eight. Vance brings him new found loyalty ,offer Silicon Valley money, Vivek is loyal and bright but has no chops with the Congress , Carson is truly loyal but brings no vitality. Donalds is loyal ,smart but is complicated as a Floridian. Bergrum is more of a cabinet spot as DOE. And while I like Tim Scott ,I think he will go with Elise Stefanik with the hope of mobilizing Gen X women and flipping NY.
Obama through his minions run the WH horizontally integrated with the Intelligence Complex. First it was Susan Rice and now Jeff Zients as Obama's in house mediator.
BlackRock through it's Aladdin trading algo platform has been manipulating this market for the benefit of Biden and Democrats but the upward rise of the faux S&P 500 is coming to a close. Just this week the Senate gave us a "tell" when they passed a bill initiated in the House that forbids insider trading for Congress. Yes Nancy Pelosi's husband can inside trade until 2027 but no member of Congress can have individual equities in their investment portfolio. That liquidating deadline is in 90 days..
I think you are missing the forest for the trees due to your normalcy bias. Who Democrats run in the “final election” isn’t particularly relevant compared to “Will there be an election” after Trump is jailed on state charges in NY, or after another brazen and openly stolen election. Democrats and their allies running the Deep State have far to much exposure to felony charges to allow a change of power, and they control all the levers of executive power while SCOTUS and RNC have already shown they will turn the other cheek. You can expect the CIA to shake out some real 3rd World type black ops as well in the form of potential black swans, and if need be Biden can just initiate one (like WW3 in ME or Europe) w his power as CinC. Just like a robber who burns down the house to destroy the evidence, these hard-eyed Neo-Marxists will do whatever is necessary to deflect blame and escape culpability. And don’t think Uniparty GOP lifers in Congress who got rich looting the treasury, vaporizing the dollar and squandering the once promised peace dividend aren’t all in for Team Arson. The US has been bifurcating at the cellular level for a long time, and the election theft you tend to ignore on 2020 (which was widespread, empirical and decisive) greatly accelerated this trend. After Biden or his stand in cracks the 100 million “vote” mark they will look straight into the camera and smile, daring America to do anything meaningful about the fraud that will be so obvious even your normalcy bias will falter. That is when the 10th Amendment must come to the fore, and Red State governors must start the painful and risky steps to decouple from Blue states who ignore the Constitution to disenfranchise every American voter and their allies in the Woke Industrial Complex. Meanwhile Americans who GAF about freedom and prosperity have to stop funding the madness with their consumer and investment dollars. Boycott Woke consumer goods. Debank your Woke depositories and NBFI’s. Divest your Woke stocks and Govt treasuries. To paraphrase Uniparty cutout George Bush 43, “If you fund a Woke ally you ARE a Woke ally”.
"Just like a robber who burns down the house to destroy the evidence, these hard-eyed Neo-Marxists will do whatever is necessary. . . And don’t think Uniparty GOP lifers in Congress . . .aren’t all in for Team Arson"
Scary because it rings so true.
Why do you ignore Robert F. Kennedy Jr? Biden administration has done everything to impede him attending the electuions and interviews, even used lawyers to block his entry in different states. THis is mocking democrary and being autocratic from a perty that claims to be democrat(ivc). Kennedy will have a real chance to wing if he was treated equally.
They will make something up to get that black woman to go save the environment or something, then Joe will pick Gruesome to be VP, then Biden will resign for health reasons. Gruesome is then president, he pardons the bidens and picks Hitlery for VP. Voila!
I think the only thing they can offer Harris to make her go away is a SCOTUS seat. They’re probably working on one of them to retire so she can be nominated.
Biden will not willingly give up the nomination and the 25th Amendment is too messy.
Trump will choose Vance, but I wish he'd pick Tim Scott.
Obama is calling the shots through Sullivan and Blinkin, but I worry that there's be a real power struggle should we have a crisis that requires military intervention; the situation room argument over who's in charge would be the stuff of movies.
The market is getting liquidity for sure, but no one can defy the power of the real market forever. As soon as NVDA runs out of new buyers it's over. Maybe in late September?
I thought you'd never ask! Here goes!
It's a beautiful Saturday afternoon and I'm checking out and taking the 4 mile drive over to the beach but I enjoy a good spin about subjects I know nothing about because why not? Everyone seems to have an opinion.
What I think is happening now? Dr Jill/Hunter is negotiating pardons for many (think Agnew/Nixon/Ford/Rockefeller) with Clinton/Obama/DNC machine along with Wall Street. The Biden oligarchy probably want some of the $ that Biden has raised. If the family gets too greedy, there is no reason why Biden may not wake up one morning. We are in the land of Epstein, remember. The DNC will simply change the money-transfer rules to 'extenuating circumstances' and put Harris in the oval office, 1st black/female in the top slot. For a short time. The question is the VP. Witmer and Newsom are HATED by voters but dearly loved by those in charge of the money. Whoever they choose is licking boots right now because Harris will have to resign as prez (she will be rewarded AND relieved) and more musical chairs will occur. How do they win the election? Will they need a 9-11 event to create patriotic fever? It's happened before.
I like Tulsi, I do. But she is too much of an independent thinker for Trump. And a woman. Sorry guys, be realistic. She knows about the Kushner/Netanyahu wheeler-dealer relationship. She wouldn't be able to stomach turning Gaza into a massive TrumpTower overlooking the Mediterraen. Vance, on the other hand, is backed by Thiel. As in Palantir. Surveillance. Money. Affiliated with Mossad. The land of Epstein. Vance is playing in the big leagues already and he is (surprise, surprise) too 'perfect'. Trump also needs young blood. Both Wall Street and the parties know these geriatric folks need to go ( Biden/McConnell/Pelosi/Feinstein). Vance is, as I state, perfect.
3. Jill? Hunter? The Obamas? The Clintons? The “deep state”? Yes but it's bigger. You've got to keep #4 front and center. It's a business and the organization chart is subject to change. Alex Soros just received the keys to the kingdom from dad. Guess who he recently became engaged to? Not Obama's daughters. A long-time Clinton 'daughter'. She's 47, he's 38.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2024/07/10/huma-abedin-alex-soros-engaged/74359233007/
4. Now we get to the interesting stuff. When to sell. Or, for self-confessed speculators...when to short. That's where the real money is going to be (I made a crazy-profitable trade on Brexit...not really hard...the Brits LOVE to bet small bets. The bookie 'volume' odds were soooo favorable to exit but the big quid was 'stay'. Well, the volume betters are the voters. Just sayin'....a little bit of common sense (did I mention my professional training as a skeptical Big6 financial auditor?)
As I said, here is where it gets interesting. The new financial system isn't quite ready yet (did I mention Palentir), pesky BRICS countries and the Saudi's putting the thumbs down on stealing russian assets (I'll just withdraw everything from my accounts at the EU says only the richest prince in the world). We'll need a pandemic scare to get cash completely unacceptable for exchange, Dr Gates is working on that at the WHO. All the wheels and gears are turning faster than they anticipated because the drugs aren't working or God is intervening and enjoying this Himself (why send a flood when the humans self-implode, just kidding)
So, what to do? I'm not into 'prepping' or building a bunker. Dance, drink and be merry (exactly what my sister from Pittsburg is doing right now in Cabo...what election? she says to me last time we spoke...and yes, she has had 4 shots 'because they told me').
Me? All this intrigue! All the puzzle pieces...and, Chris, #5 must surely be 'what the heck is China/Russia/BRICS countries doing right now', and the Europeans? August is coming up. They do not KNOW how to work in August? What a wonderful time to be alive and alert!
Aside from loving this stuff, it IS summer. And, I am, because of my Heavenly Father, fortunate and have plenty of time to ponder these things. I also have time for yoga, garden, cook, long walks with my dog and plenty of beach days and lots and lots of outdoor music and plays. While I am doing these delightful activities, I know inflation has made alot folks poorer (I'm not talking homeless drug addicts). They are looking for food, clothing, places to shower (families are living cars), school supplies, etc. People need help while I speculate and enjoy the gifts God has graced me with. I'll go to Marshalls and buy lots of socks, beg the girls at the Nordstrom make up counters for samples, head over to Costco to buy some new underwear for children, toiletries.
So I ask each and everyone of you to look around you and find some way to make another person's life better today. We must always, always remember: without love we are like a clanging symbol. Go, shine your Light!
>Who do you think the Democratic nominee will be and why?
Kamala will be 'queen for a day' - acting President. This enables the Dems to credit themselves with
bringing us the first ahh SWA and black, female President. She won't run, but will instead
become Governor of CA.
Newsom is the chosen one by Deep State/IT money (very much one in the same group).
> Who do you think Trump will realistically pick as his VP
IF he listens to the right people it will be Sarah Huckabee Sanders. She can easily follow as President.
>
Who do you think is really calling the shots at the Biden administration right now?
Deep State, Team Obama (lots of overlap here) are collaborating for the time being at
running things in the White House. Deep State running NatSec/Foreign matters, Obama via
stay behind staffers the domestic stuff.
Deep State, Team Davos, Team Pelosi, Team Obama (lots of overlap here) will do anything to see Trump is NOT returned to office. Many are at grave risk of hard time should he return.will do anything to see Trump is NOT returned to office.
> Do you think there are forces holding up the stock market and macroeconomic data (i.e. the jobs numbers that keep getting revised, CPI, etc.) to get us to November?
Hilarious! The reporting on our economic health is as false as the reporting on Biden's health.
The big move is on the force citizens to participate in the economy via a US CBDC which completes the hold our police state masters have over us. As far as a bottom dropping out - two years of Trump without another biowar attack by Xi and we will have an economy to be confident in.
Yes
1. Given that Biden polls better than Harris, if the Dem powers-that-be are willing to see Harris in office, why wouldn't it just be easier to leave Biden in place until after the election and then whack him with the 25th? So I say Biden or someone other than Harris. She is real their problem, not Biden. Seems reasonable to suspect that Dems are not acquainted with game theory.
2. Realistically? Vance, Rubio, Burgham.
Wishful thinking? I'd say Tulsi, but I've learned in life you have to be careful what you wish for.
3. No one whose name we know is running things. Whoever they are, they're smarter than that. All we see are idiots who are willing to have their strings pulled for a price.
4. Are you kidding? Of course there are hidden forces -- and the not-so-hidden ones you enumerate. If "they" decide to start pulling blocks out of the Jenga tower, when it falls, it will be a quick and cruel means of burning the entire country to the ground.
Joe is going to go down kicking and screaming. It might take a force like Killary Clinton to take action. Or they give a medically induced stroke and take him out that way.
Trump will pick VP next week. I think he is going to be boring and pick Rubio. Although Vance would be the one that I think hurts him. Outside chances are - ben Carson, smart guy - probably won’t run for president himself, that way trump does not have to share the spotlight. My hope was Vivek.
It is some force of the deep state that is running the country. Obama fingerprints are all over it - but now Joe crossed Obama - the deep state is going to take him out.
The stock market is being propped up by 40% increase of M2. Money is just being dumped into the market and the government cannot stop spending.
1) Biden is not going anywhere voluntarily. Conjecture to the contrary is pissing in the wind.
2) If memory serves, in 2016, the Pence selection came out of nowhere, orchestrated by the now-imprisoned Bannon. I really have no idea who Trump’s political advisors are, so this is hard to handicap. Vance wants it badly, that’s clear. Seems to be buddies with Don Jr. I don’t know if Vance is really full MAGA or just an opportunist, but he seems like the closest thing to “full MAGA,” followed perhaps by Stefanik. Appointing Rubio or Burgum would be strange, a pivot back toward traditional GOP. Tulsi is a total wild card.
3) Day-to-day, the Deep State. That’s always been the case and might well always be the case. Politically, it seems like Hunter, Jill, and a small handful of long-time advisors.
4) Running enormous wartime government deficits is propping up the economy and stock market, but that won’t change after November. Chris, I’d love to know what you think of Grant Williams’s recent podcast with Luke Gromen. My takeaway was big deficits and currency debasement as far as the eye can see. It’s hard to have a recession when the feds are running deficits at 6-7% of GDP.
Chris - another factor to consider - no matter who wins the election, half the country will be CERTAIN the election was rigged.
Our country is so divided, and so polarized, I’m not sure what the aftermath will bring. We may not see a peaceful transfer of power like we have watched for the past 250 years.
I often make the mistake of assuming Democrats act with logic, and have “someone’s” best interests at heart. Im now convinced some % of the left want to see the US burn. Open borders? More than two genders? Sex changes for minors? Defund police? These are policies a sane person would implement to destroy a society.
I’ve been reading the history of the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia. The parallels are scary.
How far will Hunter, Jill, Blinken, Nuland, and the deep state will go to hang on to power? Especially if they’re expecting lawfare retaliation when Trump is elected? They are backed into a corner, nothing left to lose.
IMO, the odds are higher than ever in our lifetime that one or more of our 3 presidential candidates doesn’t survive to November.
1) Biden-Harris ticket to keep funding access
2) Trump-Vance for the reasons noted by multiple commenters. Gabbard would be a great choice for 2024, hopefully Trump considers who he is “teeing up” for a presidential run in 2028. This is a unique election in that Trump knows he’s running for only 1 term and he doesn’t have an incumbent VP.
3) Deep state calls the shots. Jill and Hunter keep Joe away from his cabinet. His cabinet behaves the same way Fortune 500 VPs would behave if their CEO was incapacitated. Blending every-man-for-himself with cooperation when convenient
4) Stock market is propped up by the excess liquidity we pumped into the system. Moneys gotta be put “somewhere”. Like Jim Brown commented, society sees the bubble but is riding along until they know others also see the bubble. When it bursts, it will be a Failure Cascade.
Thanks for all your great content.
TCB said what I was going to say exactly.
1.) Biden. Main argument against Trump is that he’s chaotic and unpredictable. Dems will circle the wagon and lose behind on old workhorse ala McCain or Bob Dole.
2.) Vance. Although it’s risky who might be appointed to OH Senate seat in his place, Vance is best insurance policy for Trump should he be taken out. Vance is most naturally suited and gifted American politician to inherit MAGA movement mantle from Trump. Trump can’t put its future at risk of petering out.
3.) Biden’s sister Val and 3 longterm aides (who have been with him for decades) are calling all of the shots. They all manage by fear and ferociously which is why so few leaks or complaints. Zero profiles in courage in the cabinet.
4.) I see a flat economy with little major movement until year 2 of Trump presidency. Everything will trade in a range until consumer market and confidence rebounds. I don’t think (other than Black Swans) that there are major issues that would inherently cause the market to drop precipitously. New President will need to tackle debt, immigration, crime and inflation which hopefully all combine to stabilize and grow economy.
1) Kamala
2) Vivek
3) Deep State
4) Market down in 25 regardless
If I was Trump I would select Tulsi. I don't think he will. If he selected Ben Carson it would not be bad.
Biden and Kamala both have no prayer vs Trump unless they system is rigged more than in 2020. That's possible. Newsome is a bad goveror. He'd be ghastly as president. Who do the Demon Rat Party have that has a brain and charisma? I have no idea.
1. Democratic nominee is likely going to be Kamala. There does not seem to be any way to get her to step aside. She checks a lot of boxes for Democrats and is the current VP. She is massively ambitious, so I just don't see her opting to step aside. I think Biden bows out of the election late July early August, which gives the party time to name and support the new candidate.
2. Trump likely picks JD Vance as he is a supporter of Trump, and isn't so well known it will take the spotlight away.
3. I think the "deep state" is largely calling the shots. Jill/Hunter only have power in the sense that they are related to Joe. There are just too many other powerful people on the hill for any one person to be calling all the shots. Rather I think it is a combination of many.
4. Yes, I think the Fed and govt. work in coordination to keep the market afloat until at least November. The market will eventually tank though, and my guess would be early next year when sentiment is low, past holidays, and the elected President can just let the economy take a bath all at once.
This is post assassination attempt, so maybe a bit unfair to the previous posters.
1. Biden will be the nominee. After the incredible leadership moment Tman exhibited after the attempt on his life, could any putz Dimowit hold a candle to that magnificent display of defiance? No. Gruesome Newsom is a putz. Kamala the Kackling Kamel is a disgusting DEI hire - Sarah Palin makes her look like a bumbling idiot…wait, we don’t need Governor Palin for that.
2. Mr. Pence was not a “threat” to Tman; he was “background” material, from the heartland, a former governor, and certainly not someone to “steal” the limelight from Tman. Solid choice, though “Establishment Republican “. Today, that ER “party” is dead…the new Republican party is of the people. Further, Tman will be a one term President, which means that who he chooses must be someone who will be electable after his term ends…IF his ego does not get in the way of doing what is best for the country. Many people argue that Tman does what is best for himself, but name a decision he made during his Presidency that was bad for our country. Ok, tariffs on China…name another one. So, I’m going with JD Vance. Heartland pick. Senator from Ohio. Like President Nixon, came from a poor background which means he can appeal to “the common man”. Like Nixon, no elected office before being elected to Congress. He poses no “ego” threat to Tman. The only downside is that they are white men…yes, Tulsi Gabbard would be a beautiful (pun intended) choice.
3. This is easy. Oblamo “if you like your doctor you can keep your doctor” and his minions. SoS Blinky Blinken who also doubled as a Russia collusion operative. Susan Rice…how many times has she been to the WH? Or does she have an office elsewhere? There’s more, but what a bullet We the People dodged when the Senate refused Merrick Garland a SCOTUS seat. But I digress.
4. Yes, the government is fudging numbers (ok, lying). If President Bumbles wins, we will see a bad downside in the narket. Tman brings hope and positivity. Biden is an elder being abused but wants to remain for his family (Hunter). Tman could correct that with clemency which would astonish Libtards, Dimowirts, and Leftists. Yugely! But, the market is somehow being manipulated…one only has to observe the insane antics/valuations of Tesla to say - WTF?!
Ok. Just my nickel worth. Prost!
"....Real interesting real fast." (Hit that nail on the head!)
EPIC CLUSTERFUCK by Secret Service. 140 yards away on a fucking rooftop. That's FUCKING BLATANT INCOMPETENCE AND BEYOND. And to top it off Trump's SS detail has apparently been requesting additional resources that have been refused by Homeland (in)Security. If true - THAT'S A FUCKING "SMOKING GUN". No wonder Dementia Joe apparently went ballistic on his staff yesterday - THEY MISSED.
1. Biden because it’s too late to change “the steal” mechanism already in motion.
2. Vance because he is loyal. DeSantis would have been a good choice and I never have understood why Trump went after him so hard without needing to do so. The name calling turns off many voters.
3. Obama 100%
4. Agree with a prior comment that Trump is being set up on the economy. Hopefully he’ll have enough time and a congressional majority to turn it around rapidly.
Trump’s first term cabinet and advisor picks were a disaster. He seemingly didn’t learn his lesson when he added Barr, Wray, and others.
Continuation of Operations Plan. The Revelation is happening.
Tulsi Gabbard.
1) woman, attractive, smart, capable of debating points, hates Kamala 😂.
1) Hillary Clinton
2) Mike Flynn
3) Obama
4) Market is ALWAYS manipulated. It will crash as we enter WWIII
1) Biden is an optics problem; to steal an election you must maintain plausibility, and everybody sees that he's unhealthy and volatile. He steps down, Kamala Harris steps aside. One scenario that would suck the air out of everything else and deliver plausibility: Michelle Obama comes out as Big Mike, becomes first transgender President.
2) Ben Carson or Tulsi Gabbard, both deliver an electoral victory. JD Vance probably wouldn't, and would hurt Trump optics. Kind of academic, as certain DS types cannot allow Trump victory unless per #3 below.
3) Biden's inner circle hasn't changed since 1980. They're telling him to hold on, but it's not their choice, is it? China, Israel, DS, WEF all have veto powers. Ultimately they could shift support to Trump.
4) China's property bubble broke, scores of banks failing. Yes, stock markets are outperforming via crack-up booms and that part could go on until November. Powell already hinted at rate cuts, which will signal the flight to non-perishables. Serious US hyperinflation and supply chain problems hitting right now. On balance I do not see now we make it until November.
1. The Democrat voter fraud apparatus is now so huge that they could elect Jeffrey Epstein as President if they wanted to. Which explains the Biden family’s refusal to step down. They know even in his vegetative state, he will be elected.
2. Given #1 above, does it matter?
3. The Deep State operates on its own. No one can defy them. We saw part of it under Trump and now it’s obvious under Biden.
4. All of the financial data produced by the government is falsified. The subsequent revisions to the jobs numbers, always downward, eventually show the truth- there is no jobs growth. And the PCE and CPI numbers are so far afield of what the average American is experiencing that they no longer measure inflation but only how effective is the government brainwashing efforts. These lies will continue to be streamed until November to support the “surprising” win for the Democrat candidate. And what happens financially after the election is anyone’s guess as the cracks in the foundation are unrepairable. It’s only a matter of time until it all comes tumbling down..
1. Dem nominee will be Biden, but he will dump the lead brick Camel-a at convention. Gretchen Whitmer makes most sense as a swing state and has to be a woman. Everyone knows Biden might not make 6 mo. In new term so the talk and promo would all be around vp. Whitmer a party loyalist and proven willing to shut down economy. Biden won’t quit as hunter has to be guilty before he can be pardoned.
2. Trump has to pick someone who could actually still carry out his agenda, should he be killed, which unfortunately is a possibility that the left would stoop to. So should be Vance, but I think likely will be burgram as he won’t steal any limelight from Trump; the cardinal sin.
He cannot risk losing his base by doing gabbard , Rubio and Carson is too sleepy in presentation,
Scott would be good but I don’t see presidential as of yet but would help black vote.
3 if Obama and soros were really calling the shots , Biden would be out already. Biden doesn’t want a “ boy” telling him what to do. Jill and advisors are running things.
4. Yes, data is clearly being fudged then revised toward reality. Reality is that I now go to Denny’s or Wendy’s for date night with wife instead of any other restaurant spend $35 vs 60. And menu has improved…. Some good burgers now. They will crash it IF Trump wins.
5. Most important question not asked. Will Dems cheat to win and part 2, will they win by cheating?
YES and depends on how big the cheat is needed but they sure will try. Has there ever been a commie takeover where, once two years have past, that there is ever a free election again without a coup?
(4) Unfortunately I think we live in a completely artificial economy. The Fed does all sorts of tomfoolery to manipulate commodities, bonds, money, and equities. They have many of the best and brightest financial quants and AI engineers working for them at the Fed. When you look at the price of copper, and the ratio between consumption and production, things don’t quite add up. When you look at almost all of the SP 500 gains coming from the mag 7, or even just the terrific 3, you also do some head scratching. When your mental model of the grocery checkout indicates that you are now paying 50% more for similar grocery trips than before 2020, you realize that the CPI is bs (and of course it would be, the government has every incentive to lie and through hedonic adjustments can launder away real inflation) I think this is the result of MMT. Modern Monetary Theory is the operating paradigm for all of the great economics schools at present (with the exception of some at UoChicago). MMT, on its face, is the dumbest shit that has ever been produced. It is defined by investopedia as, “Modern Monetary Theory is a macroeconomic model positing that countries that issue their own currencies, such as the U.S., are not constrained in their spending. Proponents of MMT argue that such countries can't default on the securities they issue, as they can simply print or issue more currency.” If you go just one step more, and say, we can create money all over the place to achieve our policy objectives, without paying consequences, then you get to our macroeconomy. The Fed hypothecates funds to make sure that the stock market doesn’t crash, to make sure the price of commodities is appropriate and that the bond market isn’t too rich. This is not QE, this is not Fiscal stimulus, this is the end stage of MMT where there are no market forces, only those on the inside of the paradigm and those on the outside. I predict we will continue to see more and more inflation, because guess what? Monetary creation=inflation. What does this mean for investors? Keep picking the predetermined winners. Mr. Charlie Munger said, “show me the incentive, and I’ll show you the outcome.” Investors have already ascertained the chosen elite, and they will keep piling on all the way to the moon because true market forces are so weak.
Biden "suddenly" loses it and Kamala "excepts" the reigns. Michael (Michelle Obama) VP. Now Obama can really work his magic of destroying the country and if impatient, removes Kamala completely.
Yes, bigger deep states control the strings but Obama still has a power hold on things. His goal is to run the world (NATO?) after the US is destroyed. He gets elevated to top world leader (anti-christ) for doing such a good job.
I love Tulsi and despite comments she isn't conservative enough, who the hell is anymore? Certainly not those in congress. She and Green are the only ones with balls to stand up against those weak congressmen.
Everything is a lie today and so is the market. The sooner we get reset the sooner sanity has a chance.
Off topic, but can we have Tucker Carlson as WH Press Secretary? It would be spectacular.
Here's my take on your questions:
-Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee. He will not drop out.
-Marco Rubio will be Trumps VP pick. Trump wants someone totally loyal and someone who won't outshine him. Rubio will fill the bill. I prefer Gabbard as you do.
-Calling the shots are most likely those in closest proximity to Biden. Includes Jill, John Kirby and Blinken and others I am sure.
-I do think things will be allowed to fall apart in the economy in the weeks and months after the election. If Trump is elected the Fed and the Deep State will have a hand in this. If Biden stays in they will try to mange it better but things will fall apart anyway.
Thanks for asking!
1. HC (I can't even write out the words)
2. JD Vance
3. Deep State
4. Not sure how they will manipulate the market
As yet no murmurs of anyone stepping up to replace Biden but a ticket like Shapiro/Whitmer (or vice versa) would be strong. Buttigieg has the qualifications but I don't know if the US can handle a gay president. I've even seen memes calling for Liz Cheney to cross party lines.
Buttigieg has the qualifications? In what world does that make sense? He was a poor to middling mayor of a mid size city in Indiana and he’s been a complete waste as Transportation secretary.
As to who is calling the shots (Jill? Hunter? The Obamas? The “deep state”?). Until Joe's debate all of them were working to call the shots with informal divisions of focus. Power vacuums are filled by opportunists and they all are. They loosely cooperate since they all have something to gain by not fighting too much with each other. They are now fighting with each other which will make manipulations and divisions more apparent. They either need to knock Joe out of the 2024 election quickly or quickly realign their positions. The more they actively they continue to squabble the more likely pieces of dirt they can't fully clean up by election day will appear. A more minor detail is that despite his decline there are still some shot's called by Joe although he is now far more subject to guided manipulation. Joe, to an increasingly limited degree, provides a speed limiter on the gradual seizure of power by those surrounding and guiding Joe.
1. Michelle Obama - I believe that she has the best chance to win b/c she is not directly saddled with the baggage of the Biden/Harris administration, and that she has the potential to re-kindle the enthusiasm of the Democratic Party in a way that Kamala Harris lacks. Plus she is the only potential candidate that could supersede Kamala by matching her identity criteria.
2. Glenn Youngkin - Virginia could be the swing state that seals the election for Trump. Plus governors have more proven capability in the executive leadership category than senators or congresspeople. If not Youngkin, then Doug Burghum.
3. Jeff Zients - the chief of staff controls what goes on in the White House to the degree that it requires any policy knowledge. Jill may have some "gatekeeper" and campaign strategy influence, but I doubt that she weighs in on policy decisions. The Obama's probably control Zients.
4. Fiscal spending has held up the economy and will continue to prevent it from crashing. Monetary policy is starting to loosen and will soon be a major support for the economy as well. Gold should continue to do very well as the medium and long-term outlook for inflation is locked in.
Breaking news—it seems 2024 is going to see a confluence of multiple issues: Elon musk allegedly made a sizable contribution to Trump affiliated PAC. Interesting that musk sees a greater threat from the government vs the inevitable alienation this will cause amongst a large portion of his Tesla customer base.
1. I still think Joe is the heavy favorite for the nomination. All indications are that he wants to stay in and the opposition has been disorganized with limited time before the convention.
2. Still kind of a wild card situation here because Trump is unpredictable and no VP candidate stands out above the others IMO. I'll go with Vance, because he is connected to $ interests and seems willing to do whatever Trump wants him to.
3. "Calling the shots" is kind of a broad statement. I don't think Obama has any influence inside the administration. Jill/Hunter/family calling the shots regarding major campaign decisions. Close group of advisors calling governing decisions.
4. No manipulation of the numbers IMO keeping the stock market up. If Biden gets the nomination, I do think we'll see some early (September/October) moves out of renewable energy and potentially international focused stocks over policy expectations from a Trump admin.
1. Who do you think the Democratic nominee will be and why?
Despite speculation, I believe Joe Biden will remain the Democratic nominee. Biden's incumbency offers several strategic advantages: the power of the sitting president to drive media narratives, leverage executive actions, and consolidate party support. Replacing Biden would require an extraordinary and potentially divisive process within the party. I think their leadership wishes to avoid fracturing the party. They want to focus on the general election. Biden will argue that his experience, especially in foreign affairs is crucial in countering a potential Trump candidacy, framing the election as a choice between continuity and international chaos.
2. Who do you think Trump will realistically pick as his VP and explain the reasoning for picking them?
Vivek Ramaswamy could be a strategic pick for Donald Trump as his VP. Ramaswamy, a successful entrepreneur and author, brings a fresh perspective and aligns well with Trump's outsider image. His articulate defense of free market principles and his critique of corporate wokeism resonate with Trump's base. Additionally, Ramaswamy's relative youth and energy could help balance concerns about Trump's age and appeal to younger voters. He is also a person of color, which could help mitigate some of the accusations of racism that have been leveled against Trump and broaden the ticket's appeal. Ramaswamy's lack of extensive political experience could be seen as an advantage, emphasizing a break from career politicians and reinforcing Trump's anti-establishment message.
3. Who do you think is really calling the shots at the Biden administration right now?
While President Biden is the public face of his administration, I believe that significant influence comes from a network of seasoned political operatives and advisors. There is little doubt that longstanding Democratic power players, including those from the Obama era, continue to exert influence behind the scenes. This network ensures continuity of liberal policies aligned with their vision, which leans towards interventionist and regulatory approaches, rather than purely driven by Biden himself.
4. Do you think there are forces holding up the stock market and macroeconomic data to get us to November?
Yes. There are clearly efforts afoot to maintain the favorable economic narrative leading up to the elections. The Federal Reserve's monetary policies have been critical in supporting asset prices and providing liquidity to the market. Additionally, there have been instances of economic data, such as job numbers and inflation reports, being revised post-release, which raises questions about the initial portrayal of economic health. Analysts like Peter Schiff and organizations such as the Mises Institute have pointed out the potential manipulation of economic indicators to create a temporary sense of stability. This facade could indeed crumble post-election, revealing underlying economic weaknesses that were temporarily masked, leading to a market correction and more realistic economic assessments.
And...it's JD Vance. Trump Vance bumper sticker!
To QTR - Sorry - I don't understand the reference to "writing on telegram".