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Democrats’ Roe v. Wade “Silver Bullet” Could Backfire Heading Into November Elections
It is now a matter of whether or not this leak throws enough kerosene back on the left’s fire to keep the flames of outrage and discontent ablaze until Election Day. Frankly, I’m not sure it will.
Simply put, as a libertarian, I believe that abortion is a personal decision that the government doesn’t belong adjudicating.
But this is going to be an article about political strategy, not about anybody’s opinion on abortion.
Not only was this week’s leak confirming that the Supreme Court was going to strike down Roe v. Wade unprecedented behavior that undermines our nation’s most prestigious court, it also happens to involve one of the most debated and talked about judiciary decisions in human history.
In writing this, I’m going to make the assumption that everybody, at this point, realizes that this leak was done on purpose, as either (1) part of a strategy to influence the justices involved in overturning the decision or (2) a catalyst to light a fire under a mostly apathetic Democratic base, heading into mid-terms, that is widely expected to get trounced.
As far as a political strategy goes, the leaking of this decision may have been the most potent arrow Democrats were carrying in their quiver. After all, they certainly aren’t winning any favor by how they have been governing over the last two years. But, even then, I can’t help but have the feeling that whomever made the call to leak the decision fired their “silver bullet” a little too early.
The outrage machine on the left has already dialed its volume up past 11, as Senator Elizabeth Warren exemplified yesterday. In this video of her protesting the decision, she calls the Supreme Court - which, after Stephen Breyer's retirement, will be comprised of four women and five men - “extremist” and says they think they can “impose their extremist views on all of the women of this country”.
The issue is valuable for Democrats because it trumps inflation, the economy and the general disintegration of the country that has occurred over the last half decade. I’m certain that it’s a talking point they’ll be happy to pivot to at almost any time, given the opportunity.
I wasn’t wrong just months ago, in the midst of full-fledged Covid hysteria, when I said that Covid wasn’t going to be an issue heading into the election and that the mainstream media was going to have to pivot from their CDC-appointed talking points because the nation was getting sick of locking down and living panicked.
With this Supreme Court decision, they have officially found their pivot point. The abortion issue incites a visceral reaction from the Democratic base and, to many people, exists in a realm far more important than almost any other issue.
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However, if there’s one thing we’ve seen over the last couple of years, it’s that Democratic political strategy…
…has had a tendency to backfire.
In fact, that’s why Republicans are widely expected to handily run the table in November: people are tired of the left’s response to Covid, monetary policy, foreign policy, taxation, chaos in American cities and…well, everything else.
And while every article I’ve been reading over the last couple of days has been about what a great political asset this leak will be, there’s still plenty of time for the country’s left leaning, but centrist, base to realize that the leak was nothing more than a political chess move played at a convenient time. This heightens the risk for yet another backfire, as voters who are able to somewhat keep their cool and not go hysterical over the news may start to see themselves as the pawns in the same way political strategists see them.
The timing of the leak may have worked to the benefit of the left even more if it was released closer to the election. The final decision isn’t expected to be until “June or early July”, according to the New York Times.
The goal of the leak was likely to harness the immediate outrage of the news hitting the wire, but with six months more to go until Election Day, I’m not sure that outrage won’t start to wear off to some degree by then.
Either way, I expect Roe v. Wade to be the main key talking point for the left heading into the election. Talking about anything else simply won’t work to their advantage the way the abortion issue will.
The question is going to whether or not the Democrat’s “silver bullet” was fired too early. An exhausted left-wing base has been nothing but outraged for the better part of six years, since President Trump was elected in 2016. They are expected to lose the 2022 mid-terms because that outrage can’t continue infinitely and liberals are starting to become exhausted.
Now, it’s a matter of whether or not this leak throws enough kerosene back on the left’s fire to keep the flames of outrage and discontent ablaze. Frankly, I’m not sure that it will.