Growing lockdowns in China have me believing more and more that the country isn’t exactly crestfallen about the supply chain crisis it is creating for the rest of the world.
WW3 started in 2001, when Clinton let them into the WTO. Economic war was first, currency war second, biological war, and inevitably this will end up kinetic. The only silver lining is that due to awful demographics, China's population will be cut in half over the next 50 years. The 21st century is our to dominate if we didn't have fucking morons like Biden & Kamala in office, that are purposely destroying our country
I don't think we can dismiss simple hubris. China staked its credibility on 0 COVID and how could it go back without admitting it errored? What would it mean for their ruling party if it turned out Sweden had the best approach? Further, we know what our lockdowns did for emotional health and how extremely difficult it is to recover from that. A countries greatest asset is still its people. You simply can't treat people this badly and expect a good long term result. Sometimes in our fear we tend to think that our adversaries are smarter than they are. Yet, like us, they are human and capable of making enormous mistakes. I think we need to be vigilant and clear minded as to the threat China faces, but we need to avoid the trap of thinking everything they do is the perfect move in this chess match.
Companies that can onshore production (or find less authoritarian locations for factories) will be the winners. Those that have slim margins based on the cheapest possible production face a collapse of their businesses.
Pushing Russia and China closer together is but one of many colossal foreign policy mistakes being made by the US these past few years. Wait until the US realizes that in order to replace all the weapons being sent to Ukraine they need Chinas approval.
Which they now get from? Russia. But yes, I agree that they need us as much as we need them. But I think the small steps that are being taken to “decouple” are going to add up to a large impact as stated here in this article and comments.
I have also been reading the many theories on why China is forcing this Zero Covid lockdown. I agree that the motivation isn't Covid. Covid is the smokescreen. At first, I thought naively saying only the Covid equation computes when considering the imposed suffering, starvation, and deprivation. For China, I think Taiwan reunification is the ultimate goal here. Because the supply chain disruptions are starting to lead to a discussion of reshoring.
There are reports that the Chinese Sinovac vaccine does not protect against Omicron as well as the mRNA vaccines used in the West, link to Bloomberg below. And while it may be less deadly than Delta, it's also much more transmissible. What that means is: you get a lot more sick people (in absolute numbers) in a much shorter timeframe. I don't know much about the Chinese healthcare system, but when we take the initial outbreak in Wuhan as a benchmark, then it's reasonable to assume they don't have the hospital and ICU capacity to deal with that.
So, my guess would be: they have a vaccine that's not working well against the current variant, their epidemiologists have run the numbers, and what they came up with was a scenario that was so scary that they decided to go with the lockdowns despite the blowbacks.
As for the idea that China wants to slow down supply chains to hurt the West... that's not their agenda (because they care about their economy as well, and they'd be shooting themselves in the foot), and if it was: they'd do it without provoking civil unrest.
So, as for your three scenarios:
1) The CCP does already have all the power, so: no
2) The Chinese probably know that COVID/Omicron can really hurt them, because their vaccine seems to be ineffective, and this could ultimately weaken the CCP and/or its current leaders, because it's easy to blame them (probably rightly so)
Good article, thanks. Some other points worth noting: 1) Chinese politicians need an excuse like the rest of the world to blame the unfolding financial crisis on other than themselves, to try and avoid the massive public backlash were the masses to realise the bubble and inevitable crash were all created by their actions. 2) As we know from the dealings of the WHO, IMF and many others, China at the very highest levels is part of the globalist agenda. Their currency is in the SDR basket, their propaganda gets amplified by the globe's media, their social credit system is the test for the rest of the world. 3) For the globalists to succeed in implementing their agenda, they know they can't have strong individual nations like the USA existing. These need to be destroyed. They shipped off the jobs, the intel, the independence, loaded up the debt, and now it's time to crash it. 4) there is still not 1 scientific paper on planet Earth proving the existence of the so-called SARS-COV2 virus we're told causes COVID-19. The scientific gold standard for such a thing is the purification and isolation of a new virus. This has never been done, the world just accepted the genetic code the very same Chinese so generously "gifted" to the world and ran with it without any independent verification. Then the lab who we're told sequenced the virus was conveniently shut down by the government. Look for yourselves... I'm not saying people haven't been getting sick, but what would you expect with any species if you separated them from their loved ones, kept them indoors, without sunshine or fresh air or exercise, blasted them with fear-porn all day long, made them wear virus and bacteria farms across their breathing holes all day, destroyed their ability to make a living, stressed them every day, of course they'd get sick. Happy to hear constructive criticism. Just some points I don't hear discussed enough...
Trucking volume is down 87% in China's agricultural heartlands. Further a third of farmers in Jilin, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang can't get fertilizer or seeds for the spring crops. Because said fertilizer and seed is stuck in cargo holds in Shanghai. Deliberately. Authorities are also sealing off access to rural villages. Meaning the seed and fertilizer which got off the ships can't get to the cities. But, its not like that would matter anyways.
Local authorities are arresting farmers for being on their tractors.
In a field.
By themselves.
Due to Zero COVID policies.
And now truckers are just dumping food on the side of the road because they're being told they will have to be locked down in their trucks for weeks if they enter the city. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Shanghai, Anhui, Hebei, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Jilin, Guangdong, and Fujian have all gone a step further and shut down access to highways entirely. (Jiangsu -84 M people, Central coal import hub, central silk production hub, important source of fish, important pharmaceuticals manufacturing hub). Check out Lord Woodstone on Twitter. This is forced starvation.
Another term for China's Zero Covid/lockdown approach is "election meddling." France, US mid-terms, etc. My only question is, which way are they trying to direct the vote? I have no idea; very puzzling to me. As Sundance would say, Suspicious Cat is suspicious.
while an interesting thesis, I would still lean toward number 1, greater control over the population. while Xi has no love for the US or the rest of the world beyond what it can do for him personally, every dictator ultimately bases all their policies on their ability for absolute control over their population. And this is his latest effort to increase control.
China and Russia combined still don't generate sufficient economic activity to be self sufficient. after all, what value are Chinese solar panels if nobody buys them?
It's going to have a profound effect on the quality of life in the U.S. that many people don't understand and/or haven't experienced firsthand yet. So much of "war" against the U.S. from China would be behind the scenes: usurping the dollar, cyber warfare, trade, etc.
Chris, your comments are spot on, which is no surprise given your background. The challenge here is looking at the world from the (red) Chinese perspective instead of looking at China with a western (classic) liberal democratic perspective. Regardless of efficacy of leadership at the top, their bureaucracy runs a strong politically centralized and authoritarian regime. This is not a game; they have a cohesive long term strategy, and part of that is focused on replacing the strongest hegemon in the world and taking their (what they see) rightful place. Add that they have a strong hawk running the show with an iron fist as opposed to the velvet fists of his recent predecessors, and it's even more clear what they are about. Now is a good time for China to capitalize on the realization of some key goals that they sought through opening and engagement with the Nixon, Ford, Carter, and Reagan administrations. China is an incredibly different and much more capable country than it was under Mao and Deng. It now has the things it wanted back then: no USSR threat, math and science academic capital, modern industrial capital, modern transportation, modern energy networks, modern defense technology, modern financial networks, Space industry, and modern resource access. There are emerging opportunities because of these facts and the Chinese play the long game. Even taking the recent lockdowns at face value, they can be both health related and strategic. They can be sincere, yet still include deception. The Chinese can reverse lockdowns incredibly quick...they also will put down insurrection as an opportunity to remind the populace who is in charge. They will purposely catch an economic cold, if the same economic cold will infect the west and cause disruptions; they have worked their way to that capability. If an action will further weaken the western encirclement of China and prepare the stage for China to encircle the west, they will do that without any hesitation. (**encirclement is used here as a figurative term of relative power across a spectrum; for example, it is clear that the US has enjoyed global encirclement of China for decades)
Yes, and Donald Trump's foreign policy was based on economic interests, rather than military force, when dealing with our adversaries. He dealt with North Korea by going after the economic interests of their masters, thus the tariffs and the threat of more tariffs on Chinese goods. Ditto for Mexico, stop the illegals, or suffer the economic pain.
It is no surprise when you look and find Foxconn is a member partner of the WEF. The same WEF that Fauci, Pfizer, Moderna, etc are part of. Wake up, the WEF is the puppeteer.
WW3 was started 2 years ago, and no one noticed.
WW3 started in 2001, when Clinton let them into the WTO. Economic war was first, currency war second, biological war, and inevitably this will end up kinetic. The only silver lining is that due to awful demographics, China's population will be cut in half over the next 50 years. The 21st century is our to dominate if we didn't have fucking morons like Biden & Kamala in office, that are purposely destroying our country
errr, you give an old man with alzheimers a lot of credit. bigger forces at play
Longer than that.
I don't think we can dismiss simple hubris. China staked its credibility on 0 COVID and how could it go back without admitting it errored? What would it mean for their ruling party if it turned out Sweden had the best approach? Further, we know what our lockdowns did for emotional health and how extremely difficult it is to recover from that. A countries greatest asset is still its people. You simply can't treat people this badly and expect a good long term result. Sometimes in our fear we tend to think that our adversaries are smarter than they are. Yet, like us, they are human and capable of making enormous mistakes. I think we need to be vigilant and clear minded as to the threat China faces, but we need to avoid the trap of thinking everything they do is the perfect move in this chess match.
Companies that can onshore production (or find less authoritarian locations for factories) will be the winners. Those that have slim margins based on the cheapest possible production face a collapse of their businesses.
Pushing Russia and China closer together is but one of many colossal foreign policy mistakes being made by the US these past few years. Wait until the US realizes that in order to replace all the weapons being sent to Ukraine they need Chinas approval.
We get *everything* from China.
Isn't it a bit of a circle-jerk with China needing to import agri, raw commodities plus energy to make finished goods?
Which they now get from? Russia. But yes, I agree that they need us as much as we need them. But I think the small steps that are being taken to “decouple” are going to add up to a large impact as stated here in this article and comments.
Major disruptions affecting China's exports of food. Refrigerated containers stalled in ports. No room for incoming reefers; loaded or empty.
https://gcaptain.com/maersk-says-no-to-china-meat-and-fish-exports/?subscriber=true&goal=0_f50174ef03-dd2dac8b0d-169617561&mc_cid=dd2dac8b0d&mc_eid=146c97e6b3
I have also been reading the many theories on why China is forcing this Zero Covid lockdown. I agree that the motivation isn't Covid. Covid is the smokescreen. At first, I thought naively saying only the Covid equation computes when considering the imposed suffering, starvation, and deprivation. For China, I think Taiwan reunification is the ultimate goal here. Because the supply chain disruptions are starting to lead to a discussion of reshoring.
There are reports that the Chinese Sinovac vaccine does not protect against Omicron as well as the mRNA vaccines used in the West, link to Bloomberg below. And while it may be less deadly than Delta, it's also much more transmissible. What that means is: you get a lot more sick people (in absolute numbers) in a much shorter timeframe. I don't know much about the Chinese healthcare system, but when we take the initial outbreak in Wuhan as a benchmark, then it's reasonable to assume they don't have the hospital and ICU capacity to deal with that.
So, my guess would be: they have a vaccine that's not working well against the current variant, their epidemiologists have run the numbers, and what they came up with was a scenario that was so scary that they decided to go with the lockdowns despite the blowbacks.
As for the idea that China wants to slow down supply chains to hurt the West... that's not their agenda (because they care about their economy as well, and they'd be shooting themselves in the foot), and if it was: they'd do it without provoking civil unrest.
So, as for your three scenarios:
1) The CCP does already have all the power, so: no
2) The Chinese probably know that COVID/Omicron can really hurt them, because their vaccine seems to be ineffective, and this could ultimately weaken the CCP and/or its current leaders, because it's easy to blame them (probably rightly so)
3) Don't think so, as explained above.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-23/three-sinovac-doses-fail-to-protect-against-omicron-study-shows
Good article, thanks. Some other points worth noting: 1) Chinese politicians need an excuse like the rest of the world to blame the unfolding financial crisis on other than themselves, to try and avoid the massive public backlash were the masses to realise the bubble and inevitable crash were all created by their actions. 2) As we know from the dealings of the WHO, IMF and many others, China at the very highest levels is part of the globalist agenda. Their currency is in the SDR basket, their propaganda gets amplified by the globe's media, their social credit system is the test for the rest of the world. 3) For the globalists to succeed in implementing their agenda, they know they can't have strong individual nations like the USA existing. These need to be destroyed. They shipped off the jobs, the intel, the independence, loaded up the debt, and now it's time to crash it. 4) there is still not 1 scientific paper on planet Earth proving the existence of the so-called SARS-COV2 virus we're told causes COVID-19. The scientific gold standard for such a thing is the purification and isolation of a new virus. This has never been done, the world just accepted the genetic code the very same Chinese so generously "gifted" to the world and ran with it without any independent verification. Then the lab who we're told sequenced the virus was conveniently shut down by the government. Look for yourselves... I'm not saying people haven't been getting sick, but what would you expect with any species if you separated them from their loved ones, kept them indoors, without sunshine or fresh air or exercise, blasted them with fear-porn all day long, made them wear virus and bacteria farms across their breathing holes all day, destroyed their ability to make a living, stressed them every day, of course they'd get sick. Happy to hear constructive criticism. Just some points I don't hear discussed enough...
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you.
Trucking volume is down 87% in China's agricultural heartlands. Further a third of farmers in Jilin, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang can't get fertilizer or seeds for the spring crops. Because said fertilizer and seed is stuck in cargo holds in Shanghai. Deliberately. Authorities are also sealing off access to rural villages. Meaning the seed and fertilizer which got off the ships can't get to the cities. But, its not like that would matter anyways.
Local authorities are arresting farmers for being on their tractors.
In a field.
By themselves.
Due to Zero COVID policies.
And now truckers are just dumping food on the side of the road because they're being told they will have to be locked down in their trucks for weeks if they enter the city. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Shanghai, Anhui, Hebei, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Jilin, Guangdong, and Fujian have all gone a step further and shut down access to highways entirely. (Jiangsu -84 M people, Central coal import hub, central silk production hub, important source of fish, important pharmaceuticals manufacturing hub). Check out Lord Woodstone on Twitter. This is forced starvation.
Another term for China's Zero Covid/lockdown approach is "election meddling." France, US mid-terms, etc. My only question is, which way are they trying to direct the vote? I have no idea; very puzzling to me. As Sundance would say, Suspicious Cat is suspicious.
while an interesting thesis, I would still lean toward number 1, greater control over the population. while Xi has no love for the US or the rest of the world beyond what it can do for him personally, every dictator ultimately bases all their policies on their ability for absolute control over their population. And this is his latest effort to increase control.
China and Russia combined still don't generate sufficient economic activity to be self sufficient. after all, what value are Chinese solar panels if nobody buys them?
Biggest mistake is to believe ANYTHING that comes from Chinese media, including "lockdown videos".
Is Trade, a quiver used many times in war going back thousands of years, now the main sophisticated weaponry in a war?
Remodeling a house and shocked by the lack of availability. Appliances to 2023. Shingles up 50%. Might be better to stick with what you’ve got. Hmmmm
It's going to have a profound effect on the quality of life in the U.S. that many people don't understand and/or haven't experienced firsthand yet. So much of "war" against the U.S. from China would be behind the scenes: usurping the dollar, cyber warfare, trade, etc.
Chris, your comments are spot on, which is no surprise given your background. The challenge here is looking at the world from the (red) Chinese perspective instead of looking at China with a western (classic) liberal democratic perspective. Regardless of efficacy of leadership at the top, their bureaucracy runs a strong politically centralized and authoritarian regime. This is not a game; they have a cohesive long term strategy, and part of that is focused on replacing the strongest hegemon in the world and taking their (what they see) rightful place. Add that they have a strong hawk running the show with an iron fist as opposed to the velvet fists of his recent predecessors, and it's even more clear what they are about. Now is a good time for China to capitalize on the realization of some key goals that they sought through opening and engagement with the Nixon, Ford, Carter, and Reagan administrations. China is an incredibly different and much more capable country than it was under Mao and Deng. It now has the things it wanted back then: no USSR threat, math and science academic capital, modern industrial capital, modern transportation, modern energy networks, modern defense technology, modern financial networks, Space industry, and modern resource access. There are emerging opportunities because of these facts and the Chinese play the long game. Even taking the recent lockdowns at face value, they can be both health related and strategic. They can be sincere, yet still include deception. The Chinese can reverse lockdowns incredibly quick...they also will put down insurrection as an opportunity to remind the populace who is in charge. They will purposely catch an economic cold, if the same economic cold will infect the west and cause disruptions; they have worked their way to that capability. If an action will further weaken the western encirclement of China and prepare the stage for China to encircle the west, they will do that without any hesitation. (**encirclement is used here as a figurative term of relative power across a spectrum; for example, it is clear that the US has enjoyed global encirclement of China for decades)
Yes, and Donald Trump's foreign policy was based on economic interests, rather than military force, when dealing with our adversaries. He dealt with North Korea by going after the economic interests of their masters, thus the tariffs and the threat of more tariffs on Chinese goods. Ditto for Mexico, stop the illegals, or suffer the economic pain.
Merci
It is no surprise when you look and find Foxconn is a member partner of the WEF. The same WEF that Fauci, Pfizer, Moderna, etc are part of. Wake up, the WEF is the puppeteer.
Using the North Korea model