Larry and I talk macro, stocks the global economy and why he will "back up the truck" if Bitcoin goes to $14,000.
You lost me at bitcoin going to $2 million in the next five years. The government would never allow it.
Nice interview, I always enjoy Larry's hatred of the system. Chris, you made me laugh while doing cardio when you asked Larry how he values bitcoin. He starts out by saying, "well there are only 21MM to be...." Then you jump in with "yea yea yea, we all know that." One point Larry makes about sending money internationally and it costing 20-30% is just wrong. My wife's family lives in a S. American country and we routinely send money via Western Union. The cost is a few bucks on several hundred dollars. We send in USD and they receive in USD to avoid WU taking a big slug on FX differences. When my wife's mom gets the money she converts to a local currency at a bank for a small difference from the actual spot. In short, the entire process might cost 1 or 2%.
As long as bond yields are less than the rate of inflation, you lose money every year - avoid. As long as pension funds go for leverage to get promised/expected yields, there is always a risk that the situation goes down the toilet - see the UK. As long as Governments continue to print more money, eventually no one accepts it other than themselves - see Argentina. Due to demographics and physical health deterioration in many countries, year-after-year GDP declines may be the new normal. Will the Governments cut their expenditures, or will they say: "You will not walk alone" (Chancellor Scholz - SPD)? Couple that with the Greenies totalitarian utopia of pushing the undependables, misnamed as renewables, can we expect a de-industrialization in countries such as Germany? BTC can't be subsidized or manipulated to increase its supply.
fool; btc is going to 6k in the coming 4-5 months!
Larry has actually made me more bearish on Bitcoin. Out of all of the macro commentators who happen to be long-term bullish on Bitcoin – and it hardly gets more bullish than predicting 100x within 5-6 years – he is one of my favorites (Lyn Alden's another). So, he is one of the Bitcoin bulls who I'm most predisposed to want to listen to. However, having followed him on Twitter for a couple years now, I've watched in disappointment as he has repeatedly blocked people who tried to ask him (what I consider to be) reasonable, skeptical questions about his Bitcoin thesis. Granted, some of them have been rude about it, but definitely not all. At best they usually get short, condescending blow-off replies about how they "don't get it," are spreading "FUD," etc., and/or trite talking points ("Yeah, I know. I know, Larry. EVERYBODY knows" -Chris at 54:36 in this week's interview), but quite a few have gotten straight up blocked, often immediately, sometimes with a "GFY" for good measure. That in and of itself kind of answers the question for me as to whether or not he can defend his thesis in depth against some of the better counter-arguments.
Great episode! I have one doubt: at some point Larry commented that he either lost or was unable to profit from shorting Freddie Mae stocks (I think)...I am worried since I currently shorting PFSI, what could the SEC do to damage my trade, force me to close the position? I googled a bit about news on this back in 2008 but got the impression the SEC was "fighting" naked short selling only, could you clarify please?
Bitcoin going to $2 in the next 5 years
The wisest words from this podcast is Lepard saying: "Stick to your knitting and be balanced."