A fellow senior-citizen friend at lunch yesterday, "Don't we want interest rates to go down? I mean, my kids need to buy things like homes and cars and stuff."
I honestly no longer have words to help people understand things they simply do not want to know and. therefore, I simply replied 'Of course you want them to be prosperous, I hope the same for them' and turn my attention to order the $25 spicy shrimp LUNCH entree at PF Changs.
It looks like we as a nation have chosen the course of 'wine, women and song' and any discipline is thrown into the wind.
THIS article is why I subscribe and I gladly come out from under my proverbial rock to offer my congratulations. I, too, realize that the discipline required to make even tiny adjustments is not there. by any leaders, elected or otherwise.
Chris, this is an excellent 'wake up call' to adjust my own strategy and enjoy the volatile waves while searching for multiple safe havens to wait out the inevitable hurricane.
Don't be concerned about the domestic 'politics'...it helps define the upcoming disaster and provides adjustments to strategy (I won't be buying any put protection).
What I need help with is understanding the foreign policy implications of the upcoming disaster as the USD hegemony dies it's slow death with the birth and rise of BRICS. Eventually, the heavy hand of overwhelming and continual sanctions, the abuse of these tools to dominate will become our ultimate demise. Like the heavy hand of an abusive father, those subjected to it long term will either be defeated or will simply flee and create a new life free from the domination.
We are at a crossroad.
Thank you for your efforts and your efforts to make others think, even if we don't agree. Refreshing.
The public discussion about Saudi secretly buying gold has added to the general understanding that the dollar is toast.
Bond rally is the anomaly.
Is government really suppressing oil to try to keep Trump from office and starting ww3 to avoid ownership of the massive embedded inflation coming our way?
It’s not going to be pretty.
Remember, 5 digit gold probably doesn’t occur in a world we’re going to enjoy.
I don’t know that the gov’t has the ability to suppress oil prices these days. The strategic petroleum reserve, which was their biggest tool, is gone. I think it has more to do with inflation wreaking havoc on family finances, causing them to stay home. Lack of demand was the reason gas prices dropped during the pandemic. Then, people stayed home due to fear-mongering; now, people are staying home because they’re broke.
But yes, throughout history governments have “solved” economic crashes by starting wars. Historically, Americans don’t replace the party in Washington during times of war, but never before has the party in Washington been so transparently the CAUSE of the war.
They have other tools, including EIA liars and general media manipulation for jawboning and fear. Hard to argue that the massive financial liquidation in oil assets in the last 45 days is not indirectly tied to government misinformation.
Directly they manipulate oil through various volatility indices:
Small point of order, most times the Fed cut rates assets were at or near their historical nominal all time highs. It's been this way since 1913, but most especially since 1929.
While I agree that both parties will cause problems and Trump is no obvious savior (see page 2020 in your "Government Year in Review" textbook), I'm hanging my miniscule shred of hope on the Idea that his policy prescriptions, this time around, and after being shot at, won't be nearly as damaging as her policy prescriptions.
Good morning. One of the things I find interesting is this. Sure, the FED is pumping liquidity, the PPT has been working OT, and the 40k DOW and 5500k SPX are the lines in the sand, at least through the FOMC, and likely right through the election.
But with all the market talk, the huffing and puffing of the mainstream financial press, and the massively overbought conditions and buy every dip mentality of the retail investor sheep, there is this.
Since the prior high in November 2021, SPX is up about 15%. Maybe 16% after yesterday. It’s been a wild ride for that 15% during the past 34 months.
Instead, if one had shopped around a bit to find the best rates, and used a combination of CDs, MMs, and 4, 13, and 17 week T bills (and just using 3,4,5% rates for 2022, 23, 24 respectively, though one could have done better than that) you’ve earned 12%, and if you reinvested all the interest and compounded you’d be close to 13%.
We shall see what the final 3 months brings. But the risk premium to grab that extra 2-3% has been massive. And it continues to increase IMO.
Then again, if one had just bought physical gold in Nov of 2021 at 1773 the gain so far is 47%. And likely heading higher, given all the things you point out. No matter who ‘wins’.
With a risk premium of as close to zero as one can get.
Or if one invested in Cintas, one of the safest most reliable stocks on the market, in November 2021, today they would be up 92%. Not cherry picking. Just look at the 10 year graph and except for the one month Covid blip hit in March 2020, lower left to upper right gain with no major corrections.
There are two entities working against the economy in America and the people who live here.
1. The politician, the ones who know their career is over if they cut spending the "addicts" now depend on. Even though they are addicts, they still vote.
2. The Fed, and this is the most important point to understand. The Fed has only one item to "sell" and that is the Dollar. If they could make 10% or more on the interest they charge for the money they "print" and loan, they would. But since interest charged is the only profit making instrument they have, charging 1%, 2% or even 3% is better than not making a loan of any amount. Understanding that they are a private corporation, who has the ability to "print" as much currency as they please, and not be held accountable to anyone for what they do, should make this clear. But sadly, hardly anyone who votes in America today, understands the Fed is a for profit corporation. And like all for profit corporations everywhere, their fiduciary responsibility is to those who own the Fed. But just like a cancer, eventually they consume the host that gave them life, and then everyone and everything dies.
It didn't have to be this way. It is clear that the Republican party has made the biggest blunder in nomination history by nominating Donald Trump over a much more capable and proven candidate like Ron DeSantis. Unfortunately, the mindless MAGAts were more interested in revenge for 2020 than winning in 2024. This will likely be remembered in the future as a bigger failure than the multiple times the party passed over Ronald Reagan, only for him to become the party standard.
Ron Desantis was involved in administering torture when he worked at Guantanamo. He also seems to be incapable of controlling his face enough to form a smile. Not quite as talented an actor as the gipper I’m afraid.
Thanks for the link, Ian. DeSantis was a JAG stationed in Guantanamo for a period of time. A junior officer, not a commander. He said he saw a “professionally run prison.” He did not see torture. BTW, force-feeding people who refuse to eat, in order to save their life, is not “torture.” It happens in hospitals all across America. Maybe there was torture in Guantanamo; maybe not. I haven’t seen any official investigations that said so, and neither have you. But your assertion that DeSantis is responsible for whatever happened there, simply because he was there, is stupid on its face. Do you think all the Trump supporters at his PA rally are to blame for his assassination attempt? “It happened and they were there.”
I guess you support Piers Morgan’s position that it’s wrong to lock up terrorists who kill Americans. You think we should just give the Gitmo prisoners — including the 9/11 terrorists who killed 3000 Americans — a big hug and send ’em on their way. You’re like the Soros DAs in Democrat-run sh!thole cities — arrest the thugs then let ’em go with no charges and no bail. Don’t be mean to ’em. Do all of Trump’s lobotomized lackeys feel this way, or just you?
Boo hoo. The terrorists who killed 3000 Americans can’t go to trial. Trump’s shooter can’t go to trial, either. Boo hoo! I’m sure you’d rather have all of ’em out on bail to kill again.
There isn’t much difference between D and R anymore. There used to be, at least a little on the Econ side. And everyone was deficit averse to a degree. Most of the debate was around what govermint should do vs. what private enterprise should do. Strangely, Reagan was the one who busted the deficit dragon. And he, Regan/the Gipper/a Republican, he was the one who made big deficits OK. Then later Clinton hauled in the deficit. He did! A democrat.
The labels don’t mean much. Anymore.
Both parties lack any coherent economic theory, if the very phrase isn’t an oxymoron. There hasn’t been an economic theory since supply side economics. And before that since Keynes. It’s not a morality play. It’s a Mac chine. The machine is the outer surface of a morality play, but most people don’t have a clue. To have a clue you need to understand world history, anthropology, how non monetary societies organize themselves, the role of myth in social organization, the idea of cooperation and conflict, you need to understand ideas such as James Frazer’s The Golden Bough, which was on Marlon Brando’s bookshelf in Apocolpyse Now the movie.
You don’t get this learning all about differential equations in some Econ PhD program. Frankly, they don’t know shit. Differential equations are the easy part. Perception is the harder part. What is it that’s being differentiated? Money. Hahahahah QED
Trump has access to advisors with Austrian thinking is that winner takes all and fuck everyone else. I doubt many of your bigoted fans know who the Austrians are. Anyway for a change I sort of was going to sat agree. rowing back I understand. Stick to finance and stay out of politics.
It's amazing how little people understand Bitcoin. Even people that think they understand it don't have a clue. It is going to go up 100X from here in a decade (more or less) and consume all the fake fiat debt that will never be repaid. Not one penny will ever be repaid. Bitcoin will consume it and become the apex monetary asset. Perfect money. Everything will be repriced in Bitcoin and go down to its marginal utility cost or even to zero. Learn Bitcoin. Study Bitcoin. It is soooooooooo early.
"You must be wrong, because I don't want to have to deal with what you're saying", says millions of Americans.
A fellow senior-citizen friend at lunch yesterday, "Don't we want interest rates to go down? I mean, my kids need to buy things like homes and cars and stuff."
I honestly no longer have words to help people understand things they simply do not want to know and. therefore, I simply replied 'Of course you want them to be prosperous, I hope the same for them' and turn my attention to order the $25 spicy shrimp LUNCH entree at PF Changs.
It looks like we as a nation have chosen the course of 'wine, women and song' and any discipline is thrown into the wind.
Decadence
I must admit, I've had a sprinkle or two of decadence over my life. One needs to consider my made-up proverb: No u-hauls in heaven.👼🏼
THIS article is why I subscribe and I gladly come out from under my proverbial rock to offer my congratulations. I, too, realize that the discipline required to make even tiny adjustments is not there. by any leaders, elected or otherwise.
Chris, this is an excellent 'wake up call' to adjust my own strategy and enjoy the volatile waves while searching for multiple safe havens to wait out the inevitable hurricane.
Don't be concerned about the domestic 'politics'...it helps define the upcoming disaster and provides adjustments to strategy (I won't be buying any put protection).
What I need help with is understanding the foreign policy implications of the upcoming disaster as the USD hegemony dies it's slow death with the birth and rise of BRICS. Eventually, the heavy hand of overwhelming and continual sanctions, the abuse of these tools to dominate will become our ultimate demise. Like the heavy hand of an abusive father, those subjected to it long term will either be defeated or will simply flee and create a new life free from the domination.
We are at a crossroad.
Thank you for your efforts and your efforts to make others think, even if we don't agree. Refreshing.
The public discussion about Saudi secretly buying gold has added to the general understanding that the dollar is toast.
Bond rally is the anomaly.
Is government really suppressing oil to try to keep Trump from office and starting ww3 to avoid ownership of the massive embedded inflation coming our way?
It’s not going to be pretty.
Remember, 5 digit gold probably doesn’t occur in a world we’re going to enjoy.
I don’t know that the gov’t has the ability to suppress oil prices these days. The strategic petroleum reserve, which was their biggest tool, is gone. I think it has more to do with inflation wreaking havoc on family finances, causing them to stay home. Lack of demand was the reason gas prices dropped during the pandemic. Then, people stayed home due to fear-mongering; now, people are staying home because they’re broke.
But yes, throughout history governments have “solved” economic crashes by starting wars. Historically, Americans don’t replace the party in Washington during times of war, but never before has the party in Washington been so transparently the CAUSE of the war.
They have other tools, including EIA liars and general media manipulation for jawboning and fear. Hard to argue that the massive financial liquidation in oil assets in the last 45 days is not indirectly tied to government misinformation.
Directly they manipulate oil through various volatility indices:
https://x.com/frankoz95967943/status/1834488169967833561?s=46&t=d3jiVute5qX5CLHwWS1uGQ
I agree using up half of the spr helped their cause in the midterms. Criminal.
Small point of order, most times the Fed cut rates assets were at or near their historical nominal all time highs. It's been this way since 1913, but most especially since 1929.
While I agree that both parties will cause problems and Trump is no obvious savior (see page 2020 in your "Government Year in Review" textbook), I'm hanging my miniscule shred of hope on the Idea that his policy prescriptions, this time around, and after being shot at, won't be nearly as damaging as her policy prescriptions.
Good morning. One of the things I find interesting is this. Sure, the FED is pumping liquidity, the PPT has been working OT, and the 40k DOW and 5500k SPX are the lines in the sand, at least through the FOMC, and likely right through the election.
But with all the market talk, the huffing and puffing of the mainstream financial press, and the massively overbought conditions and buy every dip mentality of the retail investor sheep, there is this.
Since the prior high in November 2021, SPX is up about 15%. Maybe 16% after yesterday. It’s been a wild ride for that 15% during the past 34 months.
Instead, if one had shopped around a bit to find the best rates, and used a combination of CDs, MMs, and 4, 13, and 17 week T bills (and just using 3,4,5% rates for 2022, 23, 24 respectively, though one could have done better than that) you’ve earned 12%, and if you reinvested all the interest and compounded you’d be close to 13%.
We shall see what the final 3 months brings. But the risk premium to grab that extra 2-3% has been massive. And it continues to increase IMO.
Then again, if one had just bought physical gold in Nov of 2021 at 1773 the gain so far is 47%. And likely heading higher, given all the things you point out. No matter who ‘wins’.
With a risk premium of as close to zero as one can get.
Have a great weekend.
Or if one invested in Cintas, one of the safest most reliable stocks on the market, in November 2021, today they would be up 92%. Not cherry picking. Just look at the 10 year graph and except for the one month Covid blip hit in March 2020, lower left to upper right gain with no major corrections.
Great article, I think you are right and gold and miners are the best bet.
There are two entities working against the economy in America and the people who live here.
1. The politician, the ones who know their career is over if they cut spending the "addicts" now depend on. Even though they are addicts, they still vote.
2. The Fed, and this is the most important point to understand. The Fed has only one item to "sell" and that is the Dollar. If they could make 10% or more on the interest they charge for the money they "print" and loan, they would. But since interest charged is the only profit making instrument they have, charging 1%, 2% or even 3% is better than not making a loan of any amount. Understanding that they are a private corporation, who has the ability to "print" as much currency as they please, and not be held accountable to anyone for what they do, should make this clear. But sadly, hardly anyone who votes in America today, understands the Fed is a for profit corporation. And like all for profit corporations everywhere, their fiduciary responsibility is to those who own the Fed. But just like a cancer, eventually they consume the host that gave them life, and then everyone and everything dies.
It didn't have to be this way. It is clear that the Republican party has made the biggest blunder in nomination history by nominating Donald Trump over a much more capable and proven candidate like Ron DeSantis. Unfortunately, the mindless MAGAts were more interested in revenge for 2020 than winning in 2024. This will likely be remembered in the future as a bigger failure than the multiple times the party passed over Ronald Reagan, only for him to become the party standard.
Ron Desantis was involved in administering torture when he worked at Guantanamo. He also seems to be incapable of controlling his face enough to form a smile. Not quite as talented an actor as the gipper I’m afraid.
Re: administering torture in Guantanamo: Link to non-Trump, non-Democrat source? Any official .gov or .mil investigation report will suffice.
He admits it happened and he was there. It doesn’t matter that he wasnt the one who gave the order.
https://youtu.be/sNfvapJ838A?si=ciEnG0_F68sS6n1v
Thanks for the link, Ian. DeSantis was a JAG stationed in Guantanamo for a period of time. A junior officer, not a commander. He said he saw a “professionally run prison.” He did not see torture. BTW, force-feeding people who refuse to eat, in order to save their life, is not “torture.” It happens in hospitals all across America. Maybe there was torture in Guantanamo; maybe not. I haven’t seen any official investigations that said so, and neither have you. But your assertion that DeSantis is responsible for whatever happened there, simply because he was there, is stupid on its face. Do you think all the Trump supporters at his PA rally are to blame for his assassination attempt? “It happened and they were there.”
I guess you support Piers Morgan’s position that it’s wrong to lock up terrorists who kill Americans. You think we should just give the Gitmo prisoners — including the 9/11 terrorists who killed 3000 Americans — a big hug and send ’em on their way. You’re like the Soros DAs in Democrat-run sh!thole cities — arrest the thugs then let ’em go with no charges and no bail. Don’t be mean to ’em. Do all of Trump’s lobotomized lackeys feel this way, or just you?
You’re right though maybe history would be different if somebody force fed Ghandi instead of assassinating him. Could have saved his life.
Most of the gitmo prisoners cannot be subject to trial because they have been tortured. Big hug indeed.
Boo hoo. The terrorists who killed 3000 Americans can’t go to trial. Trump’s shooter can’t go to trial, either. Boo hoo! I’m sure you’d rather have all of ’em out on bail to kill again.
$5000 is close enough.
There isn’t much difference between D and R anymore. There used to be, at least a little on the Econ side. And everyone was deficit averse to a degree. Most of the debate was around what govermint should do vs. what private enterprise should do. Strangely, Reagan was the one who busted the deficit dragon. And he, Regan/the Gipper/a Republican, he was the one who made big deficits OK. Then later Clinton hauled in the deficit. He did! A democrat.
The labels don’t mean much. Anymore.
Both parties lack any coherent economic theory, if the very phrase isn’t an oxymoron. There hasn’t been an economic theory since supply side economics. And before that since Keynes. It’s not a morality play. It’s a Mac chine. The machine is the outer surface of a morality play, but most people don’t have a clue. To have a clue you need to understand world history, anthropology, how non monetary societies organize themselves, the role of myth in social organization, the idea of cooperation and conflict, you need to understand ideas such as James Frazer’s The Golden Bough, which was on Marlon Brando’s bookshelf in Apocolpyse Now the movie.
You don’t get this learning all about differential equations in some Econ PhD program. Frankly, they don’t know shit. Differential equations are the easy part. Perception is the harder part. What is it that’s being differentiated? Money. Hahahahah QED
That video cracked me up.. made my day. Thanks 😆
"They're not evil just dumb" That is so very true.
Trump has access to advisors with Austrian thinking is that winner takes all and fuck everyone else. I doubt many of your bigoted fans know who the Austrians are. Anyway for a change I sort of was going to sat agree. rowing back I understand. Stick to finance and stay out of politics.
It's amazing how little people understand Bitcoin. Even people that think they understand it don't have a clue. It is going to go up 100X from here in a decade (more or less) and consume all the fake fiat debt that will never be repaid. Not one penny will ever be repaid. Bitcoin will consume it and become the apex monetary asset. Perfect money. Everything will be repriced in Bitcoin and go down to its marginal utility cost or even to zero. Learn Bitcoin. Study Bitcoin. It is soooooooooo early.