For Keynesians, the Austrian school is a check coming due for a meal that they were told they could eat perpetually - and have been for decades - without paying for.
Good morning! Always good to be 1/2 way through the first coffee and have some QTR pop up to read! I think you should add the massive over inflation of real estate to your list.
And yep, the day of reckoning is coming. More like the decade of reckoning. Sadly, the people who are to blame are not likely to suffer much.
Brilliant and it chimes with the Chicago Fed paper at Jackson Hole that pretty much said that without fiscal restraint ie getting debt/GDP down well below 100% the Fed are powerless to control inflation on their own. There is zero political will to do that so.......mind your eye and tin hats on.
You had me at “ the same ilk who happily tune in to watch financial media sniff the ass of whatever Fed member happens to be offering up their special brand of paid speech farts that day - ” - that is some brilliant imagery and it caused me to spew my morning coffee all over the keyboard. Fortunately, I was able to get a cloth on it before it suffered permanent damage. But, the full read was worth the coffee mishap. Cheers from the Free State of Idaho.
MMT is how governments steal cost savings and productivity rather than allowing them to flow down to us and lower the cost of what we buy. It is shadow taxation.
I can eat shitty carbs all day every day, turn myself into a lard ass, and laugh at people telling me that I am killing myself by pointing to my existence as proof positive they are wrong.
Then, one day, whilst taking an enormous crap, the tight feeling in my chest and pain down my arm will reveal who was right.
It will be the Austrians, staring at the purple bloated body who will be right in the end.
Really hard to know. I am a long standing gold fan but see it as insurance rather than an investment (doesn’t stop me gulping when the price gets smashed down).
Maybe it depends on what happens if/when the BRICS countries get their commodity backed currency going.
The geopolitics will drive a lot of things.
Whatever the politicians do it will make things worse, for everyone except themselves.
Two options to be ready? get fit, as fit as you can given your age, and prepare yourself psychologically for the tsunami of shit heading our way. Embrace the suck as the SEAL’s say.
Real Estate: Definitely once tightening brings it down. It's always been my best investment.
Cash: Gotta have some along with gold.
Bonds: Big pass. They're shit at 8% inflation.
Mortgage Payoff: Only if you don't have somewhere else better for your money, have plenty of cash and gold, and don't want the headache of owing money.
Do you want to be the band playing on the deck of the Titanic or the people scurrying around trying to find something that floats? Either way, were all going into the water together. It's all about entertaining yourselves until the ship goes under.
I don't think either Kenysian or Austrian are 100 percent right or wrong. There's a balance, knowing when government intervention is best and when "hands off" is best (and having the bus driver always trying to steer to the Austrians when possible).
That said, of the two scenarios I read about for solving the debt, inflating our way out of it isn't happening and that leaves default (or perpetual Japonification or actually paying it off Hahaha!).
Quite a few years ago I attended a bank sponsored economic luncheon. The keynote was Don Kohn, then Fed Vice-Chair. He took Q&A after his prepared babble. I asked him if there were any Fed staff trained in Austrian School theory. His reply was that there are many schools of economic thought represented at the Fed. Let me translate, "no". Austrian School economics should be required for anyone studying economics or finance.
Good morning! Always good to be 1/2 way through the first coffee and have some QTR pop up to read! I think you should add the massive over inflation of real estate to your list.
And yep, the day of reckoning is coming. More like the decade of reckoning. Sadly, the people who are to blame are not likely to suffer much.
Brilliant and it chimes with the Chicago Fed paper at Jackson Hole that pretty much said that without fiscal restraint ie getting debt/GDP down well below 100% the Fed are powerless to control inflation on their own. There is zero political will to do that so.......mind your eye and tin hats on.
You had me at “ the same ilk who happily tune in to watch financial media sniff the ass of whatever Fed member happens to be offering up their special brand of paid speech farts that day - ” - that is some brilliant imagery and it caused me to spew my morning coffee all over the keyboard. Fortunately, I was able to get a cloth on it before it suffered permanent damage. But, the full read was worth the coffee mishap. Cheers from the Free State of Idaho.
well said Chris, great article
MMT is how governments steal cost savings and productivity rather than allowing them to flow down to us and lower the cost of what we buy. It is shadow taxation.
They have been doing that for 30+ years since the cheap labor of India and China came online.
I can eat shitty carbs all day every day, turn myself into a lard ass, and laugh at people telling me that I am killing myself by pointing to my existence as proof positive they are wrong.
Then, one day, whilst taking an enormous crap, the tight feeling in my chest and pain down my arm will reveal who was right.
It will be the Austrians, staring at the purple bloated body who will be right in the end.
Great analogy, but what are some options to be ready? Buy gold..check, but how much of net worth?
Stocks - overvalued
Real Estate - overvalued
Cash - inflating away
Bonds - rough in rising rate world
Pay down mortgage - hard to justify with <3% fix rate from a few years ago
???
Really hard to know. I am a long standing gold fan but see it as insurance rather than an investment (doesn’t stop me gulping when the price gets smashed down).
Maybe it depends on what happens if/when the BRICS countries get their commodity backed currency going.
The geopolitics will drive a lot of things.
Whatever the politicians do it will make things worse, for everyone except themselves.
Two options to be ready? get fit, as fit as you can given your age, and prepare yourself psychologically for the tsunami of shit heading our way. Embrace the suck as the SEAL’s say.
…. And importantly, find ways to enjoy life.
Stocks: Commodities such as oil and food
Real Estate: Definitely once tightening brings it down. It's always been my best investment.
Cash: Gotta have some along with gold.
Bonds: Big pass. They're shit at 8% inflation.
Mortgage Payoff: Only if you don't have somewhere else better for your money, have plenty of cash and gold, and don't want the headache of owing money.
Very good read, sir. Will be linking it today @https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/
Do you want to be the band playing on the deck of the Titanic or the people scurrying around trying to find something that floats? Either way, were all going into the water together. It's all about entertaining yourselves until the ship goes under.
I don't think either Kenysian or Austrian are 100 percent right or wrong. There's a balance, knowing when government intervention is best and when "hands off" is best (and having the bus driver always trying to steer to the Austrians when possible).
That said, of the two scenarios I read about for solving the debt, inflating our way out of it isn't happening and that leaves default (or perpetual Japonification or actually paying it off Hahaha!).
The difference between politicians/economists and lab rats is that rats actually learn from painful shocks and alter their path in the maze.
Oh, wait. We are the lab rats, not them!
Where is Slartibartfast when you need him?
Quite a few years ago I attended a bank sponsored economic luncheon. The keynote was Don Kohn, then Fed Vice-Chair. He took Q&A after his prepared babble. I asked him if there were any Fed staff trained in Austrian School theory. His reply was that there are many schools of economic thought represented at the Fed. Let me translate, "no". Austrian School economics should be required for anyone studying economics or finance.
Terrific analysis. Thanks Chris.
Remember way back when folks were asking wtf is deagel on about?
It looks like their explanation (now scrubbed) is starting to rhyme with your great summary of where things are at.
The USA just hasnt arrived at their predicted point of fallout…
Milton Friedman just smiled ...in his grave, and stopped spinning when he heard about your article. Monetarists Unite!
Enjoy your writing.
Pay off all debt
Get as lean as possible
Hoard cash and gold
Buy as much ammo as possible
Either get rich by acquiring assets at a massive discount or..
Be Negan instead of Abraham or Glen when the world goes to shit...