100 "Fringe" Predictions For 2022
Moving on from my semi-serious list of stocks I'm watching, here's 100 predictions for the New Year that I wouldn't be surprised to see.
Having already provided my semi-lengthy look at 22 stocks that I am watching heading into 2022 (you can view that far more serious post here), I wanted to do something more fun, and less serious to open the new year.
Heading into each new year, contained herein are 80 predictions of mine - void of all analysis and disclaiming any and all guarantees that I have any idea what I’m talking about. Absolutely none of these are to be considered life advice, investment advice or solicitations to buy or sell securities, sectors or industries mentioned.
Please note that I have personal financial exposure to some elements in this list and that these are nothing more than wild-ass guesses, for fun, of what I think the coming year could bring.
This list is for fun only - and is all opinion only.
It’ll be fun to look back at these predictions next year, when I make a similar list for 2023.
And hey, at the very least, this list will serve as a handy reference guide as to how not worth it a paid subscription to my blog can be! When you eventually decide to unsubscribe, you can always look back at this list and point before giving me the “your analysis is too simple”, “you’re too on the fringe” or “your blog costs too much” excuse that I get dozens of times per day.
But for now, are you still with me? Great. Here’s what I think could be in store for 2022, divided into topics:
Joe Biden will not finish the year as President of the United States. I’ve been saying this since the beginning of his term: I wish Joe well, but I just don’t think he’s going to be able to make it another 12 months - and I’m not sure his party will let him.
Eric Adams is recognized widely, by both sides of the aisle, as exactly what New York City needed and is praised for his job in balancing liberal policy with maintaining law and order.
Inflation replaces Covid and becomes the key political issue driving U.S. policy for the second half of the year, into mid-terms
Mid-terms then swing wildly in favor of the GOP
Presidential candidates for 2024 will start to emerge especially early, in late 2022, instead of the spring before the election year (Spring 2023) when they usually begin announcing
Beto O’Rouke will get blown out in the Texas Governor’s race
Elizabeth Warren and AOC continue to drum up conversation within their own party about members of Congress being allowed to trade stocks
The issue (members of congress trading stocks) puts Nancy Pelosi at odds with her own party and Pelosi starts losing the support of her party publicly
Leaning on his evisceration of Dr. Fauci over the last year, Sen. Rand Paul will announce in late 2022/early 2023 that he is running for President and will post extremely formidable numbers early on, standing at stark odds with his last Presidential run. He will be a contender for 2024.
AOC challenges Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in a 2022 primary
Herschel Walker wins his 2022 Senate election in Georgia by a landslide
Republican Marco Rubio holds in Florida
As such, Florida swings further red than it was in years prior. Florida’s image post-2022 changes from being a guaranteed swing state to a more solidly red state as a result of many people who have defected there for its policies
Winsome Sears becomes a political smash hit for the Republican Party and immediately becomes part of the discussion of running for higher office
The next Covid variant will be weaker than Omicron and will be a turning point for the populace, who will push back harder than ever against mandates and lockdowns.
Covid becomes widely accepted as endemic and life finally starts to move on as the media is forced to accept this narrative, too
Monoclonal antibodies become well known as a standard of early care for Covid
Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine finally start getting the treatment they deserve from the mainstream media, who is forced to acknowledge they may have efficacy in early stage Covid infections
Mask mandates will slowly end in 2022 amidst broad consensus that cloth masks aren’t effective
The Biden administration’s response to Covid comes under fire, not only by the right for doing too much, but also by the far left “squad”, for doing too little
Controversy will emerge about an illness or death of one of the top doctors speaking out against the Covid narrative
We will be presented with further undeniable proof that the virus leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, strong enough to force the left side of the aisle to admit as much, even on CNN, MSNBC, etc.
The dollar index will strengthen before ending the year at lows under 90, putting a bid under commodities
The U.S. housing market starts to cool off, falling double digit percentages as households realize there’s no savings left, no more debt to take on, no more stimmy checks and rates on mortgages start rising
Auto prices crash double digit percentages as a result of the consumer being tapped out and inventories coming back online as the semiconductor shortage starts to wane
Unemployment bottoms between 3.6% and 3.8% in Q1 2022 and never goes lower
The “official” CPI number for 2022 stays in the high single digit percentages, but GDP starts to wane. Wild inflation shows up in food prices in 2022, moreso than energy.
Warehousing and logistics real estate continues to outperform while commercial real estate posts almost no gains for the year
Residential real estate is worst performing type of real estate for the year
Solar energy has a rebirth as costs associated with it continue to fall; it becomes the “EV” trend of 2022 for alternative energy, alongside nuclear
The Stock Market
Nuclear power gains wide acceptance in the E.U. as “green”, spurring a rally in uranium prices for the year and kicking off a multi-year bull run in the commodity.
As highlighted in my 22 Stocks to Watch For 2022, Maxar (MAXR) is eventually bought out.
The Dow outperforms the NASDAQ and small caps as a growth to value rotation trade takes place
Stock pickers and and active managers come back in style as market gyrations and stagnation has investors seeking actual analysis instead of the same old “stocks always go up” bullshit
Airlines return to near-pre-pandemic-normal service by the end of the year
Tesla reprices lower as investors flee risk assets and begin realizing the nature of how saturated the EV market has become
Elon Musk doesn’t finish the year as CEO of Tesla (TSLA), either as a result of moving to SpaceX full time, regulatory concerns or health problems
U.S. lawmakers start to ask critical questions about Tesla’s business in China and ties to Beijing
ARKK once again underperforms its benchmarks, but also sees alarming outflows that it has been able to stave off thus far.
The Cathie Wood narrative in the mainstream media changes drastically and she stops giving interviews.
The top performing sectors of 2022 will be marijuana, uranium, energy, national defense stocks, transports and infrastructure names.
Tech names have a tough year and the investing public becomes wise to how options were used in 2020 and 2021 to goose the performance of equities.
Biotech names like Moderna (MRNA) and Pfizer (PFE) will fall precipitously as the narrative around vaccination and consistent boosters wanes, and fails to convince a majority of Americans that it is effective versus natural immunity.
As highlighted in my 22 Stocks to Watch For 2022, Robinhood (HOOD) is bought out if it continues to stay in the teens.
The Dow finishes the year over 40,000 and the NASDAQ under 15,000
Fannie Mae finds a new path to a potential recap and release due to the involvement of activist investors
Mask and PPE maker Alpha Pro Tech (APT) either doubles off its current price of $6 or is acquired by a larger company like 3M (MMM)
Despite a waning appetite for tech, Intel’s IPO of Mobileye becomes an extreme success with voracious demand
As a result of this an operational changes, Intel finishes the year on the “over” side of $75
Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) is acquired by an e-commerce retailer looking to expand its footprint in brick and mortar
Overstock (OSTK) is acquired by a brick and mortar retailer looking to expand its footprint in e-commerce
Facebook’s name change to Meta flops as digital assets fall out of favor as part of a broader risk-off trade. The company’s name change is widely ridiculed.
Dropbox (DBX) is acquired by Alphabet (GOOG)
The Samsung acquisition of Biogen (BIIB) rumor turns out to be true, Biogen gets acquired, but only after a bidding war
The market for non-alcoholic drinks grows even further, putting pressure on traditional alcohol manufacturers to update their product offerings
New controversial revelations related to the Archegos blowup cause major headlines in the spring/summer
The Fed attempts to taper and then softens after the market crashes. The market realizes stagflation is imminent and bids inflation hedges
Jerome Powell resigns from his position as a result
Judy Shelton goes public in blowing the whistle on the Fed after the inflation controversy goes mainstream
Richard Clarida’s trading leading into March 2020’s QE becomes further scrutinized and blows up into a massive public controversy
The Fed ends the year with rates at 0.75%, after backing them off 0.25% from 1% highs during the year
The ECB and BOE break from the Fed and end the year with higher rates than in the U.S., pressuring the U.S. Fed to keep up and hitting the dollar hard
Commodities, Gold & Bitcoin
Oil breaks $100 / barrel on rising demand while OPEC snubs Biden
Bitcoin doesn’t make it to 6 figures this year, partially as a result of adoption exhaustion and partially as a result of a “risk on” trade falling out of favor widely
Gold dips slightly, then breaks $2,000 and holds above the level thanks to a Fed comedy of errors surrounding the taper
Peter Schiff’s Euro Pacific Gold Fund outperforms bitcoin over the next 2 years (1/1/2022 until 12/31/2023)
Palladium and platinum are the two best performing metals of the year
Michael Saylor has a public, on-air meltdown if bitcoin continues to fall
Popular meme altcoins like Shiba Inu and Dogecoin suffer from catastrophic crashes and lose more than 50%, each, on the year, as part of a broader risk-off trade
Regulation of stablecoins becomes the key backbone for how the government keeps track of the crypto market going forward
China puts enough pressure on Taiwan to force military readiness and potential military action
Calls for China to stand down on Taiwan by the U.S. are met with reminders from China of the U.S.’s precarious financial position
China openly toys with the idea of backing its digital currency with gold, as I have predicted would happen
President Xi and President Biden have a very public contentions moment
Not unlike China, Russia also does whatever it wants to Ukraine while the U.S. stands idly by and, despite threats, does little or nothing to interfere
Ransomware attacks become more prominent and prompt talks of a new type of war between the U.S. and other countries
The Arizona Cardinals win the Super Bowl versus the Kansas City Chiefs in a high scoring shootout
James Conner is MVP and resigns a massive contract with Arizona.
Tom Brady doesn’t retire, despite rumors to the contrary after a failed playoff run hampered by injuries
Giannis leads the Milwaukee Bucks to an NBA chip, defeating the Golden State Warriors
Davante Adams follows Aaron Rodgers out of Green Bay
Antonio Brown never plays another down of NFL football
The UFC will acquire either the PFL, Bellator, ONE, or the ACA
Khamzat Chimaev becomes a UFC Champion
Conor McGregor takes one more marquee UFC loss and announces his final retirement
Kayla Harrison proves herself in the UFC and becomes widely accepted as the top contender in her weight class by year’s end
West Ham implodes in the EPL table and finishes in the bottom half despite a great start to this year’s EPL campaign
Newcastle avoids relegation despite their terrible start to the campaign
Bournemouth, Fulham and Middlesborough are promoted to the EPL
MLB’s lockout ends and the league plays a season that is closest to “normal” that it has seen since the pandemic started
The long-predicted “pitch clock” is finally going to happen in MLB, speeding up the game
The universal DH rule will not be implemented, citing complaints that pitchers batting in the NL is part of the essence of baseball - just like green grass and Cracker Jacks
Martin Shkreli will get out of the klink and will revamp his public image
Larry Elder never returns my repeated requests for interviews
George Gammon or Dave Collum winds up on The Joe Rogan Experience
Several high profile names in the Ghislaine Maxwell saga turn up missing
Psilocybin legality starts to follow in the footsteps of marijuana legality nationwide
Legislation arises allowing businesses and airports stop catering to the ongoing trend of “service dogs”, wherein anyone with a dog who gets them a vest that says “service dog” is all of a sudden allowed to bring their animal anywhere they want.
President Biden falls on the stairs to Air Force One, again.