Yep, positioning for "the crash" has lost money over and over since 2009. Maybe a few got Covid right. But by and large most of us little guys would have lost almost all our money trying to position for each of the hundreds of "crash triggers" that even smart-money analysis flow seems to sight almost all the time, year-in year-out. That's either a big money game or a mugs game for losers. You've gotta be lucky. And most of us aren't.
Broad valuations, that's another and easier story. But you have to be willing to walk away from chances like these. You almost could sense this one coming. But timing it. Well? Not so easy.
Well said craazyman. People who have been in the markets long before post GFC, when you used to get reversion to the mean, I been beat up going into the 17th year now. We entered the 17th year of this bull market in March. The market doesn't trade on fundamentals, valuations or any of that stuff anymore. Trades on sentiment and liquidity. After watching this market SMOKE perma-bears for 17 years, I will believe a REAL downturn when I see it!
"I continue to look at the same indicators that I did before the tariff nightmare started: the Buffett Indicator and historical price-earnings averages both still indicate to me an overvalued market."
......this is the thinking that used to work before the GFC. But in March 2025 we entered the 17th year of this bull market that started March 2009. I've lost faith that any of these old valuation metrics will ever work again. I have been waiting for over 10 years now for the market to revert to the mean in the case shiller, buffet indicator, and a million other metrics that show the market is overvaljed. All the stuff John Hussman talks about. But it seems that the market runs on sentiment, emotion, liquidty now. Perma bears have gotten destroyed the last 17 years waiting for market valuations to make sense.
Respectfully, (I love your newsletter btw) … I think Trump won and actually didn’t flinch. Yes, the 10 year but as I wrote this weekend, this is 15 days to stop the spread (capital virus) and “we will be open by Easter.” Trump needed to show he’s fully in charge of everything. He can single handedly deport anyone he wants, ruin economies, or make deals. He is the only one that matters and if you step out of line or make his vision (Ukraine peace, Hamas done, illegals gone, NGOs ruined, money spent in America to better Main Street), with one tweet. He will break you. The trial balloon of the last 7 days proved it. Buyer beware. So. Yes to everything else. But he just beat everyone into submission and the market is basically back to where it was, but a few Democrat run hedge funds and investment banks betting against Trump got margin called, lost credibility, lost money or all three.
Going to slightly disagree with you on your premise that the forecasters aren't forecasters. They are indeed forecasters...it's just that they would have to get better just to suck at being a forecaster.
We are currently only at the beginning of the beginning of the end. The Deep State will try to string this out for years in order to continue to attempt to do as much damage to America as possible.
Remember that the Tariffs are only "paused", and that we have now offered the ultimate insult to the Chinese - denying them a seat at the "table".
yep. I have no idea where this mad market will go. But we saw days like this during the 08/09 meltdown. What do they say about bear market rallies: fast, furious and prone to failure.
Valuations are still sky high. Only an S&P 500 3 handle gets even near "cheap", which is where bull markets start if history is any guide. They don't start here. And history may not be a guide, of course. That's what makes it really hard, always.
“we have some certainty as to where things are going be for the next 90 days”….what? This thing is going to boomerang six ways to Sunday every few weeks for the next 90 days. Or, this is the only empirical lesson to be drawn from the last few weeks.
With regards to many of these forecasts and price targets being reactive, I was trying to explain that last month to a family member that I offered to calculate an appropriate put hedge for their 6 figures in vested company stock, which has gone up and up for years.
FM (who is not a trader or investor): pulls out Chat GPT showing the range of analyst price targets around or above current price
China is not "easily the most important country we trade with". That'll be the EU, followed by Mexico, followed by Canada. Only then comes China. Blatantly illegal tariffs remain on Canada and Mexico. All Trump's tariffs are improperly authorised. This disrespect for treaty agreements and rule of law will have profound implications for a country which depends significantly on foreign investment.
remember, the biggest rallies come within bear markets, always.
but you are correct, arguably, the overvaluations remain quite high.
If this is the “dead cat’s bounce” he must’ve been using a trampoline.
Lol
The Nasdaq will be at ATH by the end of next week. The FED will bail out the hedgefunds with the base trade. Then they will YCC the debt problem.
Nothing will EVER deflate this bubble.
NOTHING.
EVER.
Yep, positioning for "the crash" has lost money over and over since 2009. Maybe a few got Covid right. But by and large most of us little guys would have lost almost all our money trying to position for each of the hundreds of "crash triggers" that even smart-money analysis flow seems to sight almost all the time, year-in year-out. That's either a big money game or a mugs game for losers. You've gotta be lucky. And most of us aren't.
Broad valuations, that's another and easier story. But you have to be willing to walk away from chances like these. You almost could sense this one coming. But timing it. Well? Not so easy.
Well said craazyman. People who have been in the markets long before post GFC, when you used to get reversion to the mean, I been beat up going into the 17th year now. We entered the 17th year of this bull market in March. The market doesn't trade on fundamentals, valuations or any of that stuff anymore. Trades on sentiment and liquidity. After watching this market SMOKE perma-bears for 17 years, I will believe a REAL downturn when I see it!
"I continue to look at the same indicators that I did before the tariff nightmare started: the Buffett Indicator and historical price-earnings averages both still indicate to me an overvalued market."
......this is the thinking that used to work before the GFC. But in March 2025 we entered the 17th year of this bull market that started March 2009. I've lost faith that any of these old valuation metrics will ever work again. I have been waiting for over 10 years now for the market to revert to the mean in the case shiller, buffet indicator, and a million other metrics that show the market is overvaljed. All the stuff John Hussman talks about. But it seems that the market runs on sentiment, emotion, liquidty now. Perma bears have gotten destroyed the last 17 years waiting for market valuations to make sense.
Respectfully, (I love your newsletter btw) … I think Trump won and actually didn’t flinch. Yes, the 10 year but as I wrote this weekend, this is 15 days to stop the spread (capital virus) and “we will be open by Easter.” Trump needed to show he’s fully in charge of everything. He can single handedly deport anyone he wants, ruin economies, or make deals. He is the only one that matters and if you step out of line or make his vision (Ukraine peace, Hamas done, illegals gone, NGOs ruined, money spent in America to better Main Street), with one tweet. He will break you. The trial balloon of the last 7 days proved it. Buyer beware. So. Yes to everything else. But he just beat everyone into submission and the market is basically back to where it was, but a few Democrat run hedge funds and investment banks betting against Trump got margin called, lost credibility, lost money or all three.
https://hottakeoftheday.substack.com/p/15-days-to-slow-the-spread
sleep well, amigo. your commentary over the past week was excellent!
Going to slightly disagree with you on your premise that the forecasters aren't forecasters. They are indeed forecasters...it's just that they would have to get better just to suck at being a forecaster.
You da man Raven, you nailed it on the 10 year treasuries!
Learned, it’s better to be a cantankerous mentor to find your Charlie Parker.
Catch 22 meets spy world ... great movie!
Dead Cat got yanked on a bungee cord.
We are currently only at the beginning of the beginning of the end. The Deep State will try to string this out for years in order to continue to attempt to do as much damage to America as possible.
Remember that the Tariffs are only "paused", and that we have now offered the ultimate insult to the Chinese - denying them a seat at the "table".
Stay buckled up, keep calm and carry on.
Thanks to QtR for the “like”.
Sanity inside of that thing we call Chaos- the market. Thanks
yep. I have no idea where this mad market will go. But we saw days like this during the 08/09 meltdown. What do they say about bear market rallies: fast, furious and prone to failure.
Valuations are still sky high. Only an S&P 500 3 handle gets even near "cheap", which is where bull markets start if history is any guide. They don't start here. And history may not be a guide, of course. That's what makes it really hard, always.
“we have some certainty as to where things are going be for the next 90 days”….what? This thing is going to boomerang six ways to Sunday every few weeks for the next 90 days. Or, this is the only empirical lesson to be drawn from the last few weeks.
Hey take it easy, I'm not an economist. I just play one on Substack.
With regards to many of these forecasts and price targets being reactive, I was trying to explain that last month to a family member that I offered to calculate an appropriate put hedge for their 6 figures in vested company stock, which has gone up and up for years.
FM (who is not a trader or investor): pulls out Chat GPT showing the range of analyst price targets around or above current price
Me: watch it be down 20-40% in the next 12 months
Wild day today. Probably some fuel was due to shorts covering. More volatility tomorrow?
China is not "easily the most important country we trade with". That'll be the EU, followed by Mexico, followed by Canada. Only then comes China. Blatantly illegal tariffs remain on Canada and Mexico. All Trump's tariffs are improperly authorised. This disrespect for treaty agreements and rule of law will have profound implications for a country which depends significantly on foreign investment.
Not according to Apple, which is essentially the entire S&P 500 :)