Trading The Shit Show: May 2025 Market Review

How I think the trade war will play out, its effect on markets and one negative upcoming catalyst I see.

Well, go figure. The assumption that people shouldn’t get riled up about the trade war like it was the end of the world – that I put forward a couple of weeks ago – turned out to, at least in the short term, be correct.

As I predicted, markets have calmed down and trade deals are actively being worked on — yes, even with China.

A lot of the major themes I had banked on this year got a taste of rocket fuel with the tariff uncertainty. Heading into May, my 25 Stocks I’m Watching for 2025 list (part 1 here and part 2 here) continue to outperform the S&P by about 12.6%.

Here’s how they look, and then my thoughts on the market heading into the back half of Q2 2025: