Trading The Shit Show: February 2025 Market Update

72 days sober and beating the S&P to start the year. I can't believe it, either.

Hope everybody had a fantastic start to the year. I wanted to write a personal note and then also talk about where I stand on the economy and markets heading into the second month of 2025.

First off, as those following me on my Twitter account may know, today I am 72 days free of both alcohol and gambling. Around November of last year, I had what could only be described as a spiritual shift in my life and decided that both alcohol and gambling—both in casinos and on sports, in addition to actively trading stocks and any trading of options—were no longer serving me in my personal life.

My longtime followers know that I have always been in the midst of some type of mental health work on myself, and I’ve been open about the fact that I have been in therapy for the better part of the last decade.

Over the last decade, I’ve made incredible strides personally, and now, as I get into my early 40s, it felt like a great time to shed my skin one more time and focus a little bit deeper on the tip of the spear of some issues in my life that were driving a lot of negative feelings. In other words, I’m evolving, and it feels great.

This shirt I saw in Mexico a couple weeks ago sums it up.

My plan is to still actively commentate on markets and talk about names and sectors that I like, but my gambling career — marked generally by meaningless safeties, running backs taking a knee before the goal line, full court hail mary shots going in for backdoor spread covers and dealers pulling nine card 21’s while I have 20 — and active trading career—marked generally by an astounding inability to not overreact or overcorrect and personally screw up trades even when my thesis is right — have both come to an end.

Over the last 72 days, I’ve felt an immense clarity, peace, and calm in my life that I haven’t had at any point over the last 20 years. My hope for my kind, loyal readers is that stepping back ever so slightly from the “action” actually sharpens my focus and allows me to see things more clearly. It is not lost on me that commentating on markets and continuing to watch sports, both of which I love, can both be triggers, and so I am working programs and therapy aggressively on my own behalf to ensure I give myself the best chance every day to wake up in the light of life, and not the darkness. I have an incredible support system around me and do “the work” daily in an attempt to give myself the best possible shot to walk this corridor. Today felt like a great time to share it with my readers and “recover loudly” as they say.

Another thing I’ve done this morning that I’ve wanted to do for years is open up the chat thread to paid subscribers. This is a thread in your Substack inbox where only my paid subscribers can discuss the content I’ve put out for the day or whatever the hell else anybody wants to talk about. It’s just a little bit better for active discussion than article comments, though I do still encourage those as well. I will also try to dip into the chat once every couple of days and will use it to post occasional brain farts that are not worthy of their own individual posts.

Diving into the market, and taking a look at the 25 stocks I’m watching for 2025, as highlighted at the beginning of this year, we’re outperforming the S&P by about 9% out of the gate this year. Amazing what happens when you’re not actively killing brain cells with booze or forcing your body through enough stress on a D-II women’s volleyball game, or Korean ping pong match, that it feels like you’re pulling 5 G’s in the back of a fighter jet.