Two movies are playing on one screen, let us call it, Once Upon a Time in Bitcoin. One version is the Finance version and the other is the Monetary version.
Most people think they are in, and watching, Monetary BTC the movie (number go up!) when they are really watching Financial BTC the movie. Bitcoin can’t be debased on-chain but its price can be diluted indefinitely through synthetic claims. That doesn’t break Bitcoin. It breaks the story people were told about how it would trade…this is all deflationary
I just read an interesting comment on SA regarding BTC ; the profusion of ETFs, derivatives linked to BTC has cancelled the scarcity factor of the instrument. I don't it is real because ETFs have to buy the coin but futures are created out of thin air.
Appears to me that it has an unsolvable dilemma. It's never going to get truly widespread adoption until it is as easy to use (spend with) as a credit or debit card. In that sense, it would need to act like simply another currency. Exchange your USD (or what have you) to Bitcoin, and off you go.
But very, very few people are going to suffer through any kind of volatility and not just walk away from it. If the bank that held your checking account had wild swings in the value of your dollar, you would never use that bank for that purpose. You might use it like a casino, yes, but only degenerates use their checking account in a casino. At least casinos make you go to an ATM and withdraw, instead of using your debit card at the table. (Or they used to...who knows these days.)
exactly why it is not a currency, it may be a store of value, it is certainly not a unit of account, and the concept of a medium of exchange is DOA until such time as volatility heads to 0
As we approach creation of the last bitcoin, since there is an upper limit on how many there can be, what motivation exists for there continuing to be a huge diffuse computational infrastructure effectively managing security?
When the last coin is claimed, how much of that computational infrastructure will go to work cracking keys?
it's interesting, as volatile as BTC has been recently, take a look at Nat Gas for real volatility. and that is something that is critical to all of us. my personal view is it has evolved from the alleged initial view of a replacement of the fiat currency system to a highly speculative asset dominated by HFTs and other traders who eat retail for lunch.
that said, this was an interesting take on what has driven the most recent moves:
All of which is very interesting but beside the point. If Bretton Woods is "toast" - does anyone truly believe that Bitcoin will have any "value" whatever on the day after SHTF Day?
BTC is a worldwide asset, with fixed, decreasing supply (flow) and a growing, untouchable existing stock. Debasement is the best argument for it. It can be held in a cold wallet, traded anywhere. Gold is heavy and bulky, silver more so, and both have lots of friction in stressful times, like now. It’s just a flesh wound. h/t Monty Python.
'...after years of supposedly “mass” adoption.....' I argue that it has reached mass acceptance, not adoption.
Larry Lepard...he asked the longest non-question question I've ever heard (on the MSTR call). He can pick whatever target he wants, because without any intrinsic value, there's no difference between $1 and $ trillion. They're all infinitely more than what its worth. (full disclosure, I am long as a pure gamble on crowd psychology, which is all BTC is).
As for Saylor saying vol is Satoshi's gift, well, let's just say that if MSTR blows up, he'll have a role waiting for him in the current administration.
All the 90 y/o “Welfare Kings and more Queens” being paid out 30x.
Per AI Analysis.
For a worker who retired in 1980, their career spanned the 1940s through the 1970s. For the first half of their career, they were paying less than 3% in taxes on a very small portion of their income.
The First Recipient: Ida May Fuller, the first person to receive a monthly Social Security check (1940), paid in a total of $24.75 in taxes. She lived to be 100 and collected $22,888 in benefits—a return of roughly 92,400%.
The 1950s/60s Retirees: These individuals hit their "break-even" point in less than 2 years of retirement. By age 67, everything they received was "pure profit."
The 2020s Retirees: Because rates have been at 12.4% since 1990, a modern worker has paid the "high" rate for their entire 35-year peak earning window. Consequently, it takes them roughly 12 to 15 years (until age 77–82) to reach the break-even point.
Great article- the answer to "who is the next bitcoin buyer?" Is- the current Bitcoin owner. I have a 2.5% bitcoin position (compared to a 12.5% gold position), but at 40k, I'd buy 3 more BTC. IMHO, the BTC is going to $20 million crowd embarrasses themselves, but the "Tulip, Ponzi, Madoff" crowd, wins the ignorant trophy by a nose.
Two movies are playing on one screen, let us call it, Once Upon a Time in Bitcoin. One version is the Finance version and the other is the Monetary version.
Most people think they are in, and watching, Monetary BTC the movie (number go up!) when they are really watching Financial BTC the movie. Bitcoin can’t be debased on-chain but its price can be diluted indefinitely through synthetic claims. That doesn’t break Bitcoin. It breaks the story people were told about how it would trade…this is all deflationary
I just read an interesting comment on SA regarding BTC ; the profusion of ETFs, derivatives linked to BTC has cancelled the scarcity factor of the instrument. I don't it is real because ETFs have to buy the coin but futures are created out of thin air.
Appears to me that it has an unsolvable dilemma. It's never going to get truly widespread adoption until it is as easy to use (spend with) as a credit or debit card. In that sense, it would need to act like simply another currency. Exchange your USD (or what have you) to Bitcoin, and off you go.
But very, very few people are going to suffer through any kind of volatility and not just walk away from it. If the bank that held your checking account had wild swings in the value of your dollar, you would never use that bank for that purpose. You might use it like a casino, yes, but only degenerates use their checking account in a casino. At least casinos make you go to an ATM and withdraw, instead of using your debit card at the table. (Or they used to...who knows these days.)
exactly why it is not a currency, it may be a store of value, it is certainly not a unit of account, and the concept of a medium of exchange is DOA until such time as volatility heads to 0
Mark CRYPTO Twain: "Reports of my death have been greatly exagerrated."
As we approach creation of the last bitcoin, since there is an upper limit on how many there can be, what motivation exists for there continuing to be a huge diffuse computational infrastructure effectively managing security?
When the last coin is claimed, how much of that computational infrastructure will go to work cracking keys?
“Recurring financial media rash Tom Lee” 🤣.
it's interesting, as volatile as BTC has been recently, take a look at Nat Gas for real volatility. and that is something that is critical to all of us. my personal view is it has evolved from the alleged initial view of a replacement of the fiat currency system to a highly speculative asset dominated by HFTs and other traders who eat retail for lunch.
that said, this was an interesting take on what has driven the most recent moves:
https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2019987379684274565?s=20
Ahhh, natural gas. They don't refer to it as "The Widowmaker" for nothing!
exactly. sat next to the natty traders when I worked at Lehman trading FX and PM, and that stuff was insane!
Yes! I worked at Shearson Lehman Bros at 1 Penn Plaza many moons ago. Those were great days.
Interesting! I was wondering why everything decided to crash in one day last week.
All of which is very interesting but beside the point. If Bretton Woods is "toast" - does anyone truly believe that Bitcoin will have any "value" whatever on the day after SHTF Day?
BTC is a worldwide asset, with fixed, decreasing supply (flow) and a growing, untouchable existing stock. Debasement is the best argument for it. It can be held in a cold wallet, traded anywhere. Gold is heavy and bulky, silver more so, and both have lots of friction in stressful times, like now. It’s just a flesh wound. h/t Monty Python.
The Passive Bid into ETF's will keep it propped up and the M&M will make money making it go up and down enough to keep everyone interested.
'...after years of supposedly “mass” adoption.....' I argue that it has reached mass acceptance, not adoption.
Larry Lepard...he asked the longest non-question question I've ever heard (on the MSTR call). He can pick whatever target he wants, because without any intrinsic value, there's no difference between $1 and $ trillion. They're all infinitely more than what its worth. (full disclosure, I am long as a pure gamble on crowd psychology, which is all BTC is).
As for Saylor saying vol is Satoshi's gift, well, let's just say that if MSTR blows up, he'll have a role waiting for him in the current administration.
(edited to fix typo)
Crypto. Ponzi and Madoff would be proud.
They've all got nothing compared to Social Security.
All the 90 y/o “Welfare Kings and more Queens” being paid out 30x.
Per AI Analysis.
For a worker who retired in 1980, their career spanned the 1940s through the 1970s. For the first half of their career, they were paying less than 3% in taxes on a very small portion of their income.
The First Recipient: Ida May Fuller, the first person to receive a monthly Social Security check (1940), paid in a total of $24.75 in taxes. She lived to be 100 and collected $22,888 in benefits—a return of roughly 92,400%.
The 1950s/60s Retirees: These individuals hit their "break-even" point in less than 2 years of retirement. By age 67, everything they received was "pure profit."
The 2020s Retirees: Because rates have been at 12.4% since 1990, a modern worker has paid the "high" rate for their entire 35-year peak earning window. Consequently, it takes them roughly 12 to 15 years (until age 77–82) to reach the break-even point.
Dutch 1720s tulip craze = BTC ETFs
Heh, at least with a tulip you had nice flower to look at when you were broke.
Great article- the answer to "who is the next bitcoin buyer?" Is- the current Bitcoin owner. I have a 2.5% bitcoin position (compared to a 12.5% gold position), but at 40k, I'd buy 3 more BTC. IMHO, the BTC is going to $20 million crowd embarrasses themselves, but the "Tulip, Ponzi, Madoff" crowd, wins the ignorant trophy by a nose.
If Bitcoin becomes boring, it has become what the maxis want it to be. a store of money.
Until then, it'll remain a speculative asset with highs and lows
Walker- I wouldn't. I do recently own some ETH, less than 1% position but in my opinion, most alt coins go to zero.
Bitcoin = "The King Has No Clothes".