Rubbish, for personal investment criteria since central banks have no timeframe considerations or profit/ loss portfolio criteria like every single person & family. The Chinese CB has to put US$ assets somewhere. US farmland & companies? No- increasingly regulated & politically difficult even subject to confiscation.
If you have so much US$ and an infinite time horizon with no need for income and security in the form of armies, then gold might be right for you.
The timing is also right for two reasons. In the last few month, gold prices was driven by real rates. But real rates are so high, that from these levels they usually turn down. So that is a support for gold and some trader will play this angle. Also, in the last 2 weeks gold are showing the characteristic as if it wants to go back to the debasement regime trade. Which is basically, when real rates are stable, but inflation expectation goes up, therefore gold and the nominal yields are positively correlated. All in all, the most powerful moves are when we are at the intersection of 2 different gold regimes. That is why important what is happening.
I agree, also in my own experience the GDXJ has out paced the GDX over the last 3 yrs. Don't forget about the Juniors. If you want a real speculative play look into $NAK
Peter Schiff is spot on as often. I have been buying dips in gold miners in the last 2 months in small amounts and now have a very overweight position in RGLD, OR, TFPM, VOXR and the like (gold royalty companies). Fortunately for me momentum has been turning this week.
Interesting coincidence: Two of the world's three largest foreign-reserve holders—China and India—abstained on the 2022 UN resolution condemning Russia. Since then, both have continued to add substantially to their official gold reserves, with China alone reporting purchases of more than 350 tonnes. Correlation isn't causation, but if the freezing of Russia's reserves changed how central banks think about geopolitical counterparty risk, gold is exactly the asset you'd expect them to accumulate.
I think this was also why BRICS started gaining so much traction after 2022. With the BRICS countries looking into how to assemble something like a gold back trading system.
The problem with any truly gold backed trading system is that it makes it difficult for any country within the system to have sustained trade deficits because they'll run out of the gold to sustain those deficits. That's why Nixon closed the gold window. Conversely, it makes it difficult for a country within such a system to have sustained trade surpluses, because its trading partners will be forced to settle with a dwindling supply of gold. Trade must be relatively balanced over time. Maybe China is ready to implement a consumer led economy with nominal trade surpluses and deficits going forward within a trading system designed by the BRICS, but I'll believe it when I see it.
China plans ahead in decades, while those who run America can't see anything past the next election.
Rubbish, for personal investment criteria since central banks have no timeframe considerations or profit/ loss portfolio criteria like every single person & family. The Chinese CB has to put US$ assets somewhere. US farmland & companies? No- increasingly regulated & politically difficult even subject to confiscation.
If you have so much US$ and an infinite time horizon with no need for income and security in the form of armies, then gold might be right for you.
The timing is also right for two reasons. In the last few month, gold prices was driven by real rates. But real rates are so high, that from these levels they usually turn down. So that is a support for gold and some trader will play this angle. Also, in the last 2 weeks gold are showing the characteristic as if it wants to go back to the debasement regime trade. Which is basically, when real rates are stable, but inflation expectation goes up, therefore gold and the nominal yields are positively correlated. All in all, the most powerful moves are when we are at the intersection of 2 different gold regimes. That is why important what is happening.
I agree, also in my own experience the GDXJ has out paced the GDX over the last 3 yrs. Don't forget about the Juniors. If you want a real speculative play look into $NAK
Peter Schiff is spot on as often. I have been buying dips in gold miners in the last 2 months in small amounts and now have a very overweight position in RGLD, OR, TFPM, VOXR and the like (gold royalty companies). Fortunately for me momentum has been turning this week.
Interesting coincidence: Two of the world's three largest foreign-reserve holders—China and India—abstained on the 2022 UN resolution condemning Russia. Since then, both have continued to add substantially to their official gold reserves, with China alone reporting purchases of more than 350 tonnes. Correlation isn't causation, but if the freezing of Russia's reserves changed how central banks think about geopolitical counterparty risk, gold is exactly the asset you'd expect them to accumulate.
I think this was also why BRICS started gaining so much traction after 2022. With the BRICS countries looking into how to assemble something like a gold back trading system.
The problem with any truly gold backed trading system is that it makes it difficult for any country within the system to have sustained trade deficits because they'll run out of the gold to sustain those deficits. That's why Nixon closed the gold window. Conversely, it makes it difficult for a country within such a system to have sustained trade surpluses, because its trading partners will be forced to settle with a dwindling supply of gold. Trade must be relatively balanced over time. Maybe China is ready to implement a consumer led economy with nominal trade surpluses and deficits going forward within a trading system designed by the BRICS, but I'll believe it when I see it.
Make sense.