I think that's basically it. I hold onto hope that the US can recover after the inevitable fiscal mayhem coming our way. Empires don't last forever but maybe there's some grit underlying our social media panty waist generation. I don't know if we're as down and out as England was in WWII, a collapsing empire under attack but I'm stocking up on essentials. And popcorn.
That's NOT it. The fact is that a shitstorm is exactly where he has been able to make his past acquisitions. If anything, maybe he sees the can being kicked down the road further than he will be on it. It probably also disgusts him that gold, an investment he has traditionally viewed as an anathema, is one of the markets best performers. In his eyes the market continues to be a hot mess.
“…have been replaced in favor of bullshit CEO storytelling, a relentless passive bid and 0DTE option gamma acting as the tail that wags the market dog.”
That’s it. That’s the story of our lifetime. Soon enough the zombie algos with infinite money will transform into laser focused AGI (with infinite money) operating out of data centers with 100 million gpus, controlling all flow against humans, stopping you out on a personal, psychological level, and you won’t even know that it happened. The market will soon be as reliable as a Powerball Ticket.
People do not understand this because even for basic necessary things available to them, like LLMs, they’re still googling shit. You’ve already suspended all belief if you buy into Apple being a successful company on the merits of being a corporation that makes good products and not a well run hedge fund.
Buffett leaving like this is the last signal we need. This is clown world. The PE might as well be 800. As long as they’re collecting the vig we may continue without too much catastrophe.
When you started I didn't know where you were going but as I fell deeper into the article the lights started coming on and shining on a beautifully made point. Again, you nailed it.
That's the beauty of your thought process. It's why I pay to read your stuff. It may startout like drivel and ends up like a Van Gogh but in words. Keep it up.
He was cushioning against a panic sell-off that he thought would happen if he died before resigning. BRK crashes, and his XOs, already in place, gobble up the shares at a discount. It would seem maudlin to do it while in place. He has been quoted as saying if the P/B ratio dropped below 1.1, he'd buy back more of his stock. Now that a Warren-less company can emerge, his successors have some flexibility. You can ride through a lot of shit with a few hundred billion dry powder and a $1.3T enterprise value.
A respectful elegy, but not encompassing the whole truth. As Berkshire assets grew, Buffett stopped investing in the manner that he utilized in his early years ..that earned his out- performance reputation. Partly because the AUM of Berkshire precluded the smaller cap companies. But then, also, because , as the article noted, Warren began to lean more heavily( and nearly exclusively) on his cachet as an investing tool. If any one doubts that Warren got the "heads-up" in 2008 (probably illegally) before he rescued Goldman Sachs, please contact me as I have an enormous bridge to sell you! The man was a legend in his original time, but, IMHO, degenerated into a shill for Berkshire while he used "heads-up" info. A sad commentary on the corruptness of today.
If he wasn’t so aged I’d say: Buffett sees shitstorm coming. Retires.
I think that's basically it. I hold onto hope that the US can recover after the inevitable fiscal mayhem coming our way. Empires don't last forever but maybe there's some grit underlying our social media panty waist generation. I don't know if we're as down and out as England was in WWII, a collapsing empire under attack but I'm stocking up on essentials. And popcorn.
Panty waist....what a hoot! 🦉
LOL
agree. but my nagging question that could be the impt indicator- what is all that "cash" sitting in and how come he put it into whatever it is in?
That's NOT it. The fact is that a shitstorm is exactly where he has been able to make his past acquisitions. If anything, maybe he sees the can being kicked down the road further than he will be on it. It probably also disgusts him that gold, an investment he has traditionally viewed as an anathema, is one of the markets best performers. In his eyes the market continues to be a hot mess.
If I recall, during GFC, he acquired GE at single digits.
“…have been replaced in favor of bullshit CEO storytelling, a relentless passive bid and 0DTE option gamma acting as the tail that wags the market dog.”
That’s it. That’s the story of our lifetime. Soon enough the zombie algos with infinite money will transform into laser focused AGI (with infinite money) operating out of data centers with 100 million gpus, controlling all flow against humans, stopping you out on a personal, psychological level, and you won’t even know that it happened. The market will soon be as reliable as a Powerball Ticket.
People do not understand this because even for basic necessary things available to them, like LLMs, they’re still googling shit. You’ve already suspended all belief if you buy into Apple being a successful company on the merits of being a corporation that makes good products and not a well run hedge fund.
Buffett leaving like this is the last signal we need. This is clown world. The PE might as well be 800. As long as they’re collecting the vig we may continue without too much catastrophe.
This all started with Cramer calling Domino's Pizza a technology company 10 years ago, I'm convinced. LOL. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/jim-cramer-domino-s-is-a-fantastic-technology-company-13960644
When you started I didn't know where you were going but as I fell deeper into the article the lights started coming on and shining on a beautifully made point. Again, you nailed it.
Sometimes even I don’t know where I’m going when I start :)
That's the beauty of your thought process. It's why I pay to read your stuff. It may startout like drivel and ends up like a Van Gogh but in words. Keep it up.
Buffett and Doyle Brunson were brothers from a different mother.
He was cushioning against a panic sell-off that he thought would happen if he died before resigning. BRK crashes, and his XOs, already in place, gobble up the shares at a discount. It would seem maudlin to do it while in place. He has been quoted as saying if the P/B ratio dropped below 1.1, he'd buy back more of his stock. Now that a Warren-less company can emerge, his successors have some flexibility. You can ride through a lot of shit with a few hundred billion dry powder and a $1.3T enterprise value.
Good take.
Great article, sad to see the Oracle retire. The market has become Bizzaro land.
This is the best column from you I have read.
Without a single doubt, Michael.
Chris....🙇🏼♀️
In a parallel universe, I believe you will enjoy the following:
https://substack.com/@boriquagato/note/p-161550153?r=1fxdc&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
A great Sunday read by the eloquent feline.
A respectful elegy, but not encompassing the whole truth. As Berkshire assets grew, Buffett stopped investing in the manner that he utilized in his early years ..that earned his out- performance reputation. Partly because the AUM of Berkshire precluded the smaller cap companies. But then, also, because , as the article noted, Warren began to lean more heavily( and nearly exclusively) on his cachet as an investing tool. If any one doubts that Warren got the "heads-up" in 2008 (probably illegally) before he rescued Goldman Sachs, please contact me as I have an enormous bridge to sell you! The man was a legend in his original time, but, IMHO, degenerated into a shill for Berkshire while he used "heads-up" info. A sad commentary on the corruptness of today.
Poetic brutality. Great column.