The Precipice
"America might just be on a precipice. And we’ll find out which way it goes over the coming weeks."
By James Hickman, Schiff Sovereign
“OK, so now I just want a bunker,” a close friend of mine texted over the weekend. And I get it. Fear, apprehension, unease… these are completely normal feelings right now.
Google Trends shows that searches for “WW3” and “nuclear war” spiked over the weekend. Similar hashtags on social media (#WW3, etc.) also surged.
It doesn’t help that much of the legacy media has been stoking these fears, as they almost always do.
Now, I suspect most people already have very strong opinions on the conflict. I certainly do. So there’s no sense in spending time today trying to litigate whether the military action was a good idea; we’ll all find out soon enough.
Instead, I want to focus on two key points:
The first is that—regardless of how someone feels about this conflict— World War III is LESS LIKELY today than it was on Friday. And it’s not hard to understand why.
US military capabilities have been on full display this year— first in Venezuela, where special operations forces managed to extract one of the world’s most tightly protected dictators… and it was over in a matter of hours.
Only weeks later we see total dominance of Iran’s air defense systems— most of which are Russian or Chinese technology.
In other words, China and Russia saw their military technology completely embarrassed by the United States. And this unmitigated defeat makes them both less interested in taking on America’s military.
More importantly, Russia is completely depleted after four years of war in Ukraine. China’s military has almost no combat experience and has never had to project power beyond the South China Sea.
So while they’ll certainly phone in their condemnations and strongly worded tweets, these countries have neither the capacity nor the inclination for war.
It’s also noteworthy that the US rolled out a new weapon against Iran— a ‘kamikaze drone’ which was first pioneered by the Iranians themselves.
Over the past several years the Iranian military developed its low-cost Shahed-136 drone— and sold vast quantities of them to Russia for use in Ukraine.
Well, an Arizona-based defense startup reverse engineered the Shahed-136… and made major improvements with respect to range, firepower, networking, cybersecurity, and more.
It’s also dramatically more cost effective and can be manufactured in America at less than half the price as the Iranian variant.
This shows how valuable the US private economy can be in war— managing to best the Iranians at their own game in less than a year. Foreign adversaries cannot ignore this.
Look, nothing is impossible. But in terms of probabilities— at this moment, the specter of world war, nuclear war, etc. is actually lower… and adversary nations’ appetite for direct military conflict is diminishing by the day.
The second point is what’s really at stake.
Military action of this scale brings almost infinite permutations. And, yes, there are many possibilities which result in the US subduing Iran’s military and a new, America-friendly regime takes control of the country.
China has already lost access to Venezuelan oil. Now they stand to lose access to Iranian oil. This is bad news for China’s domestic economy.
More importantly, by exerting de-facto control (or at least significant influence) over most of the largest oil supplies on the planet—Iran, Venezuela, the US, most of the Gulf states— America would be able to re-establish the US dollar’s dominance.
Every country that wants to buy oil— which is pretty much everyone— would need to own and hold US dollars to pay for it. This means that foreign countries must continue buying vast quantities of Treasury bonds—helping to finance America’s deficit and keep interest rates down.
But there are other outcomes as well.
If the remaining military campaign does not go well— if the Iranian regime manages to suppress the protestors, survive the bombings, and maintain their grip on power— then the US could be in trouble.
US casualties at that point will be mounting. Munitions will be depleting rapidly. And most media attention and political opposition will pounce on the President.
Frankly I’d expect to see more well-funded protests and professional agitators making a stink across American cities, i.e. the Left will fall back on its Minneapolis/ICE playbook to force a military withdrawal.
China and Russia would likely take advantage, capitalizing on US weakness and the fact that America’s relations with Europe are heavily strained.
Between the tariff chaos, domestic social divisions, Congressional intransigence, constant government shutdown threats, etc., adding in a humiliating military defeat in Iran might just be the final straw.
Led by China, other nations could come together and say, ‘enough is enough’, then force a new Bretton Woods style convention to formally establish a new order that strips the US of its power.
Again, there are nearly infinite ways in which this could play out. But regardless of where someone stands on this weekend’s airstrikes, it’s important to acknowledge the stakes.
A successful outcome could provide major benefit to the dollar for decades to come. Defeat could trigger the end of US geopolitical dominance.
America might just be on a precipice. And we’ll find out which way it goes over the coming weeks.
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Just to be a contrarian.
Not that big of a deal. Russian and Chinese weapons systems in the hands of Iranians don't prove anything to anyone. Using Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) has been going on for 40 years. By the time you get any weapons system through MILSPEC vetting it's already obsolete. Especially with Moore's law. It's increasingly systems on platforms that matter, not the platforms. Given that Iran hasn't hit one of our carriers with a hypersonic missile, I wonder if this isn't all just performative theater.
We lost Vietnam. We lost Afghanistan. The world got over it. Almost nobody likes Iran, none of their neighbors, none of the rest of us. Most of their neighbors just want to be left alone to make money selling oil. There is no coalition forming to help them.
Given the amount of civilian casualties from last month's demonstrations (10's of thousands), I'd guess someone will make a play for a new government. Maybe the son of the former Shaw? Don't expect a democracy, they only work when they're a good cultural fit, and I'm not optimistic in Iran. It looks like the Kurds will, at a minimum, try to carve out a chunk of land for themselves.
I doubt we'll wield oil as a weapon as it would only drive the Chinese into the arms of the Russians.
I appreciate everyone's concerns but think our growing national debt is our biggest issue, not this kerfuffle in the Middle East. We're never going to put boots on the ground, which is the only way this goes south.
And if memory serves me correctly, for the past month almost every tanker in the world has been sitting at anchor filled with oil.
There is a considerable amount of counter-evidence that undermines this guy's assertion that the war has been a smashing success for the US and Israel. First, he's absolutely correct that Iran's air defenses have not performed well, and that the US and Israel have air dominance. But, this is hardly a surprise. I don't think there was any suggestion anywhere that this would not be the case.
Second, it appears clear that the US and Israel pinned much hope (not exclusive reliance, certainly) on the idea that a decapitation of Iran's leadership would result in a quick surrender, or chaos, or protests followed by a splintering into multiple factions. That hasn't happened. While I personally think the targeting of Iran's leadership while negotiations were underway was both cowardly and sets a terrible precedent, there's little doubt it was successful. Yet, the hoped-for consequences did not ensue. Indeed, just the opposite happened: This "sneak" attack appears to have galvanized the vast majority of people in Iran behind the regime, as we see in massive nightly demonstrations in favor of the regime.
Third, it is clear the US and its allies overestimated their abilities to defeat Iran's ballistic capabilities and/or underestimated Iran's missile/drone technologies. Simply put, ally interceptors have been ineffective; they are running low; and Iran has successfully targeted much of the radar necessary to successfully operate these batteries. Don't take my word for it. Run a few AI searches. Ask if there is satellite imagery supporting the assertion that one or more allied THAAD batters were damaged or destroyed by Iran. There's evidence that, potentially, all four (out of eight or nine in the world) have been impacted. If you're paying attention, you've seen reporting that South Korea has been asked to donate its THAAD battery. Certainly, THAADs aren't the only interceptors. But, if true, the defensive umbrella in the region has been ineffective and/or seriously compromised.
I claim no real expertise, but I can pay attention and do a little research just like anyone else. And, I've been around long enough to know that you have to disregard anything you read in the MSM, and 100% of what's coming out of our government. But, even if you want to disregard what some anonymous commenter says, give a listen to someone who is pretty close to an expert on these things: Daryl Cooper. https://www.youtube.com/live/qSjSFXPtfzM?si=0Ts08ltcl7D-WnkD
That leaves the ultimate question: How much does Iran have left? Its clear the US and Israel have neither been able to knock out all of Iran's missile launchers, nor eliminate the drone threat. It seems pretty unlikely they'll be able to do so any time soon. But, how much does Iran have left? That's the real question. Iran is never going to defeat the US/Israel in a conventional fight, or eliminate air dominance. They don't have to. They just need to be able to continue to reach out and touch the US and its allies. I suspect that will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed to everyone Iran does not explicitly want sailing through there (everyone except China), and that's a problem as long as it lasts.