Deep down what its really about for many of the Fintwit elites, globalists, wall street shills, maintream media, etc... is if their 401k is going up or down. I don't think they really care about tariffs, or so much other political crap they blab about. They gaslight about all kinds of shit, but at the end of the day its about their own selfish interestes. Is my portfolio going up or down.
To paraphrase an old adage - Good times make weak men.
For Wall Street, there has been nothing but good times since the GFC. The S&P has returned almost 14% YOY since then. The major reason for that outsized return has been the Federal government and the Federal Reserve catering to the whims and wishes of the financial elite.
At the start of the GFC, there was $8.3 trillion of money in circulation. Currently, there is $21.7 trillion. That's a 161% increase in the money supply over a 16-year period. Over that same period, GDP grew by only 91%. An economy that grew 91% would logically require a 91% increase in its money supply.
So where did that extra 70% go? Well, there was so much extra money being pumped into circulation, they had to invent new valuation models to justify pouring it into the stock market. Thus, Palantir selling at 200 times future earnings is perfectly fine. Or the fact that only 8% of all publicly-listed companies account for 84% of the entire capitalization of the stock market. The people doing this are not geniuses. They are the fortunate ones who happened to have access to surfboards when the Fed decided to unleash their tidal wave of cash.
My point -These tariffs are designed to return America to a place where we make stuff that requires skill and craftsmanship. I have no sympathy for the whining of weak people who have been showering in the cash being pumped out by an irresponsible government. It was reported that the top 25 hedge fund managers raked in $30.1 billion in personal compensation in 2024. Hard to sympathize with their whimpering about a 3-day downturn when Trump is attempting a complete restructuring of the American economy, an economy that will hopefully benefit Joe the Plumber, not just Joe the "mega-yacht, 2-jet, 3-manision" Banker.
I think you are completely correct Chris, there is no way to know how this will play out at this stage. Certainly the fact that 50 or 70 nations are calling to negotiate tells me that they understand the previous game has ended.
It will be a bumpy ride, but mostly compared to what we have be come accustomed to with then Fed's market anesthesia of trillions of dollars of printed money.
The “monied” class is losing their 💩 as they expect the market to go up forever. They don’t care about the “detrius” left behind in a hollowed out middle class, unaffordable housing for young people, or really much of anything else. The “left” has become the party of big money, with plenty of NPC’s easily activated after years of TDS has been imprinted in them. Those NPC’s don’t understand this is the “good” medicine, and that the current “Republican” party represents a centrist Democrat party of the 70’s-90’s.
Last August (outside of my heavy gold position) I went ~60% cash. This market was heavily overvalued. Buffet was sending us that message loud and clear. A few weeks ago I went ~90% cash. DeepSeek market response told me we had topped.
Trump is doing EXACTLY what “democrats” long wanted (or at least virtue signaled). He’s NOT going to back off, and I have told my friends as much for weeks. Trump is “The Terminator”—he has a mission and won’t stop.
Meanwhile all the talking heads whine & gnash their teeth as the market goes down as they expected the guy they literally tried to assassinate would follow a “business as usual” strategy.
I understand this man very well, mostly because I think like him. He’s our Tony Soprano of trade (and other things). Don’t cross him.
If the credentialled class knew what the hell they were talking about they wouldn't need to waste their time turning up as guests on TV shows and podcasts. The people that really know what they are talking about are too rich for shit like that.
On "emeritus"--it's a status that professors get when they retire. Some universities make it a special category with requirements, others give it to anyone who has retired with tenure.
I know what it means. It was hyperbole because of how snobby it sounds and how it is often associated with “intellectuals”. It’s also used for Board Chairs and other positions people used to formerly hold, not just Professors :)
Good article Chris. We need a little fearless currently in my opinion. If this is a reset then good. I kind of like the “it’s not working, let’s break it and build it better “ mentality. I think the Trump as a bull in a china shop references are funny. If true, this is a very studied bull, regardless of the slings.
The media hates Trump - full stop. As I write this, I’m sitting having coffee in a Paris hotel listening to some jerk tell a French family how horrible Trump is. Then he says he owns a company that sells to the defense dept (so part of the military industrial complex:). Trumps tariffs - while perhaps to blunt but maybe not - will ultimately be good for the US. We also need to get away from the notion of a “Fed put”. Companies just need better risk management. Now I’m listening to this moron talking about Trump and coal. He doesn’t seem to realize that coal is needed to make steel aka ships. Good grief - gotta get out of here :)
Deep down what its really about for many of the Fintwit elites, globalists, wall street shills, maintream media, etc... is if their 401k is going up or down. I don't think they really care about tariffs, or so much other political crap they blab about. They gaslight about all kinds of shit, but at the end of the day its about their own selfish interestes. Is my portfolio going up or down.
spot on
To paraphrase an old adage - Good times make weak men.
For Wall Street, there has been nothing but good times since the GFC. The S&P has returned almost 14% YOY since then. The major reason for that outsized return has been the Federal government and the Federal Reserve catering to the whims and wishes of the financial elite.
At the start of the GFC, there was $8.3 trillion of money in circulation. Currently, there is $21.7 trillion. That's a 161% increase in the money supply over a 16-year period. Over that same period, GDP grew by only 91%. An economy that grew 91% would logically require a 91% increase in its money supply.
So where did that extra 70% go? Well, there was so much extra money being pumped into circulation, they had to invent new valuation models to justify pouring it into the stock market. Thus, Palantir selling at 200 times future earnings is perfectly fine. Or the fact that only 8% of all publicly-listed companies account for 84% of the entire capitalization of the stock market. The people doing this are not geniuses. They are the fortunate ones who happened to have access to surfboards when the Fed decided to unleash their tidal wave of cash.
My point -These tariffs are designed to return America to a place where we make stuff that requires skill and craftsmanship. I have no sympathy for the whining of weak people who have been showering in the cash being pumped out by an irresponsible government. It was reported that the top 25 hedge fund managers raked in $30.1 billion in personal compensation in 2024. Hard to sympathize with their whimpering about a 3-day downturn when Trump is attempting a complete restructuring of the American economy, an economy that will hopefully benefit Joe the Plumber, not just Joe the "mega-yacht, 2-jet, 3-manision" Banker.
Evidently outsourcing the nation's industrial base and decimating its middle class was a good policy decision.
Welcome to "Wall Street World"!
You have to be an Emeritus Professer -- preferably of the "Finance" variety -- to understand why.
Well said
Remain calm and carry on
Btw - Trump is fearless because he has already survived everything that the Deep State could throw at him, including 2 assassination attempts.
Trump has always had courage - a virtue in short supply.
Certainly among contemporary politicians.
I think you are completely correct Chris, there is no way to know how this will play out at this stage. Certainly the fact that 50 or 70 nations are calling to negotiate tells me that they understand the previous game has ended.
It will be a bumpy ride, but mostly compared to what we have be come accustomed to with then Fed's market anesthesia of trillions of dollars of printed money.
The “monied” class is losing their 💩 as they expect the market to go up forever. They don’t care about the “detrius” left behind in a hollowed out middle class, unaffordable housing for young people, or really much of anything else. The “left” has become the party of big money, with plenty of NPC’s easily activated after years of TDS has been imprinted in them. Those NPC’s don’t understand this is the “good” medicine, and that the current “Republican” party represents a centrist Democrat party of the 70’s-90’s.
Last August (outside of my heavy gold position) I went ~60% cash. This market was heavily overvalued. Buffet was sending us that message loud and clear. A few weeks ago I went ~90% cash. DeepSeek market response told me we had topped.
Trump is doing EXACTLY what “democrats” long wanted (or at least virtue signaled). He’s NOT going to back off, and I have told my friends as much for weeks. Trump is “The Terminator”—he has a mission and won’t stop.
Meanwhile all the talking heads whine & gnash their teeth as the market goes down as they expected the guy they literally tried to assassinate would follow a “business as usual” strategy.
I understand this man very well, mostly because I think like him. He’s our Tony Soprano of trade (and other things). Don’t cross him.
If the credentialled class knew what the hell they were talking about they wouldn't need to waste their time turning up as guests on TV shows and podcasts. The people that really know what they are talking about are too rich for shit like that.
On "emeritus"--it's a status that professors get when they retire. Some universities make it a special category with requirements, others give it to anyone who has retired with tenure.
I know what it means. It was hyperbole because of how snobby it sounds and how it is often associated with “intellectuals”. It’s also used for Board Chairs and other positions people used to formerly hold, not just Professors :)
It’s still kind of pompous regardless
I love this, perfect description of the current emotion of the market watching dogmatic panic.
Good article Chris. We need a little fearless currently in my opinion. If this is a reset then good. I kind of like the “it’s not working, let’s break it and build it better “ mentality. I think the Trump as a bull in a china shop references are funny. If true, this is a very studied bull, regardless of the slings.
Just how much "growth" is enough?
The media hates Trump - full stop. As I write this, I’m sitting having coffee in a Paris hotel listening to some jerk tell a French family how horrible Trump is. Then he says he owns a company that sells to the defense dept (so part of the military industrial complex:). Trumps tariffs - while perhaps to blunt but maybe not - will ultimately be good for the US. We also need to get away from the notion of a “Fed put”. Companies just need better risk management. Now I’m listening to this moron talking about Trump and coal. He doesn’t seem to realize that coal is needed to make steel aka ships. Good grief - gotta get out of here :)